Corbyn's days (very) numbered?

[catsmate]

During the reigns of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, prospective Labour MPs could only be selected from a list approved by the Blairites - and most of today's Labour MPs were, of course, elected during those years. This explains why so many of them are so far to the political right of the party's activists and the party's historical position.

Member ≠ Activist.

 

[angrysoba]

Seriously on what information is this idea that Corbyn is a disaster based on? After checking on the byelection results last night I had a look and in all the actual elections since he became leader there doesn't seem to be any sign of this disaster?

I think he's considered a disaster on the basis that he failed to show any leadership during the Brexit referendum and that almost his entire shadow cabinet have no confidence in him to the extent that not only have they resigned but even the replacements have been resigning.

 

[Tolls]

Labour's also had poor poll ratings, often below the level of the election, which is not good considering they're the opposition, and the Tories haven't exactly been putting through Happy Policies. You would normally expect to see the government drop behind, but they've been consistently ahead (sometimes by massive amounts, as in around the end of last year) since, well, since the election.

 

[Darat]

I think he's considered a disaster on the basis that he failed to show any leadership during the Brexit referendum and that almost his entire shadow cabinet have no confidence in him to the extent that not only have they resigned but even the replacements have been resigning.

No that's really a begging the question type of answer. He was apparently considered by some to be a disaster prior to the recent events.

 

[Darat]

Labour's also had poor poll ratings, often below the level of the election, which is not good considering they're the opposition, and the Tories haven't exactly been putting through Happy Policies. You would normally expect to see the government drop behind, but they've been consistently ahead (sometimes by massive amounts, as in around the end of last year) since, well, since the election.

Have you got a site that consolidates the polls.

I'm sincerely finding this very interesting as it seems to me at the moment the idea he was a disaster for the party is not supported by the evidence.

 

[Ashorn]

very quick search - but maybe the yougov site is useful

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

the graph indicates falling labour support but really not sure about the scale given the individual polls listed above

 

[GlennB]

very quick search - but maybe the yougov site is useful

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

the graph indicates falling labour support but really not sure about the scale given the individual polls listed above

The Con lead in the polls has been steadily falling throughout 2016. April was the last time their lead exceeded the GE result, and even that one was a bit of an outlier.

wiki all polls

 

[angrysoba]

No that's really a begging the question type of answer. He was apparently considered by some to be a disaster prior to the recent events.

Not really. If he cannot lead his own team then the buck stops with him. That's what a vote of no confidence demonstrates.

 

[Darat]

Not really. If he cannot lead his own team then the buck stops with him. That's what a vote of no confidence demonstrates.

But the criticism from the PLP has been he's a liability, that he will lose them their jobs or as they like to dress it up lose the next general election. But the actual data really doesn't seem to support this. I'm beginning to think this is one of those everyone knows thing which is simply untrue. Happy to be proved wrong.

 

[angrysoba]

But the criticism from the PLP has been he's a liability, that he will lose them their jobs or as they like to dress it up lose the next general election. But the actual data really doesn't seem to support this. I'm beginning to think this is one of those everyone knows thing which is simply untrue. Happy to be proved wrong.

I see what you mean. Then maybe I misunderstood your point. He may still be more popular in the rank and file than anyone running against him. I can't believe that Angela Eagle will excite the base and notably there are few heavyweights coming to the fore. Hillary Benn would surely have been one but does he know that he would be less popular than Corbyn?

 

[MikeG]

.........Hillary Benn would surely have been one but does he know that he would be less popular than Corbyn?

He who wields the knife never wears the crown. Michael Heseltine found that out the hard way, and so will Hillary Benn (and probably Michael Gove). In the case of Benn, that's a pity, because he is an able politician and has an air of gravitas.

 

[angrysoba]

He who wields the knife never wears the crown. Michael Heseltine found that out the hard way, and so will Hillary Benn (and probably Michael Gove). In the case of Benn, that's a pity, because he is an able politician and has an air of gravitas.

Similarly Corbyn is dicovering that heavy is the head that wears the throne.

 

[MikeG]

Similarly Corbyn is dicovering that heavy is the head that wears the throne.

Crown, perhaps?

Though more like a paper hat at the moment.

 

[Tolls]

Crown, perhaps?

Though more like a paper hat at the moment.

Could be using 'throne' as a colloquialism.

 

[jimbob]

Could be using 'throne' as a colloquialism.

I immediately thought of a swirly too.

 

[jimbob]

Have you got a site that consolidates the polls.

I'm sincerely finding this very interesting as it seems to me at the moment the idea he was a disaster for the party is not supported by the evidence.

The Mirror's view on the 2016 Council elections

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/election-results-leave-labour-going-7908651

Relief that it hasn't lost more council seats when this is the first time for more than 30 years an opposition didn't gain is the low expectation of a stalled party.

The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-how-bad-were-the-councils-results-for-corby/

The last time the English areas voting this week were last contested was 2012 - when Miliband was at the Labour helm.

The party succeeded in making net gains of 32 councils and over 800 council seats then. The Tories, typical for a party of government, lost 12 councils and 400 seats.

This time round, Labour has made small net losses of councillors and councils, as have the Conservative party.

Before the election, backbench MP Alison McGovern has said that a loss of even a single council would be a "betrayal" of the party.

Since 1974 and excluding general election years, opposition parties have always gained seats in local elections - with the exceptions of 1982, 1985 and now 2016.
Labour won 2014’s local elections by just one percentage point - making David Cameron's performance then quite impressive. In 1996, before Tony Blair's general election landslide, it won by 14 points. In 2009, the Tories won by 13 points.

The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...jeremy-corbyns-election-success-is-misleading

And you never want to end up being in a position where a BBC presenter is pointing out [to Corbyn's twitter account] to you that the things you claim the BBC aren’t reporting are being illustrated with screenshots from the BBC.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about a wave of new Labour Party members signing up in the past few days to support Corbyn. Things might get even more interesting soon if that's the case.

 

[The Don]

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about a wave of new Labour Party members signing up in the past few days to support Corbyn. Things might get even more interesting soon if that's the case.

A neighbour of ours has just joined to vote Corbyn out

 

[GlennB]

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about a wave of new Labour Party members signing up in the past few days to support Corbyn. Things might get even more interesting soon if that's the case.

Which perhaps gets us right back to the original point of electing Corbyn, which was to reject the self-serving, Tory-lite, Blairite tendency.

Some people here cry "What's the use if you're unelectable?" and my feeling about that is "What's the use in getting elected if you're not significantly different from the Tories?" Might as well just roll over and die. Or maybe tell a pack of lies in order to get elected, and the rejection of that trait is another reason Corbyn got elected.

 

[jimbob]

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about a wave of new Labour Party members signing up in the past few days to support Corbyn. Things might get even more interesting soon if that's the case.

A former colleague is like that... and they are old enough to remember "the longest suicide note in history"

And Foot was a better leader than Corbyn.