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Merged Now What?

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megaresp said:
I loaded the json object into PHP to get a better look. These are the key data:

Total GB Signatures: 2,401,768
Total Signatures: 2,540,690

There are various fields in there, including the number of signatures per constituency. I can supply that in a human-readable format if anyone is interested.

I guess the json file isn't generated on the fly, because the reported total is 2,769,454 as I write this. But using the above data, 5.5% of the signatures are reported to originate from outside the UK. I can think of 3 reasons why this might be so...

  1. Country by IP isn't perfect
  2. UK citizens live all over the world
  3. Fraud




I grabbed a file from 25/6/2016. I don't see whatever it is you're seeing. Would you mind stating clearly what you are seeing?

I have no trouble accepting that 2 million+ UK residents have signed this petition. I am one of them.

The petition doesn't actually require an address, just a postcode and email. I assume they check the country associated with the IP and discard anything that doesn't match, but it's impossible to tell because the json file and the total reported on the web page don't match (i.e. json file doesn't appear to be generated on the fly).

If the Sunday Express is to be believed, the originator of the petition is a Brexit campaigner who (I assume) thought Remain would narrowly win per the exit polls on 23/6/2016. Ironic if true.
Click to expand...

You need to look at 3 things: The time the data was captured by the wayback machine, the total number of signatures and the number of signatures from the UK for two of the files:

date & time of capture||"signature count"||"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count"
25/6/16 20:21:43||2367548||365483
25/6/16 22:01:10||2547875||2401768
||(+180327)||(+2036285)

Therefore you can see that between those two times (2 hrs 20 mins) the total number of signatures increased from 2.36 million to 2.54 million (up 180,327). In the same time the number of signatures from the UK rose from 365,000 to 2.4 million. That's an increase of 2036285! (2 million).

How can an increase of 2 million UK signatures translate to a total increase in signatures of only 180,000? The total should be nearer 4.36 million for the later file.

This shows that the file has been altered, specifically the number in the "United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count" field. This was done after people looked at the json file and saw that of the 2.36m "signatures" only 365,000 were from the UK.
 
Sunstealer said:
You need to look at 3 things: The time the data was captured by the wayback machine, the total number of signatures and the number of signatures from the UK for two of the files:

date & time of capture||"signature count"||"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count"
25/6/16 20:21:43||2367548||365483
25/6/16 22:01:10||2547875||2401768
||(+180327)||(+2036285)

Therefore you can see that between those two times (2 hrs 20 mins) the total number of signatures increased from 2.36 million to 2.54 million (up 180,327). In the same time the number of signatures from the UK rose from 365,000 to 2.4 million. That's an increase of 2036285! (2 million).

How can an increase of 2 million UK signatures translate to a total increase in signatures of only 180,000? The total should be nearer 4.36 million for the later file.

This shows that the file has been altered, specifically the number in the "United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count" field. This was done after people looked at the json file and saw that of the 2.36m "signatures" only 365,000 were from the UK.
Click to expand...

thanks for this clear explanation.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
How will milk get cheaper? In a lit of cases farmers are already losing money on milk production.

We pay 87p for 2 pints. That's cheaper than some bottled waters.

It's the Supermarkets and the 'middlemen' milk processing dairies that set the price.

With an EU exit and probably a tariff on milk imports in the future I would think there is more chance of a price rise.
Click to expand...
Because there will be an infux of product they can't export.

Back to the old days when the govt subsidised them to dump it
 
kevsta said:
thanks for this clear explanation.
Click to expand...


It may be clear to you, but I'm confused.

Are you guys saying the count has been tampered with? Is the total number of signatures given when you go to the petition page on the website the correct figure of British signatories or not?


ETA Now reading over 3,084,000
 
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asydhouse said:
It may be clear to you, but I'm confused.

Are you guys saying the count has been tampered with? Is the total number of signatures given when you go to the petition page on the website the correct figure of British signatories or not?
Click to expand...

I looked at the file too, but didn't (know how to) do analysis on it.

basically saying that there are only actually 360k UK names, but that the file was altered last night to say there's 2.4 million+ of them.
 
Sunstealer said:
You need to look at 3 things: The time the data was captured by the wayback machine, the total number of signatures and the number of signatures from the UK for two of the files:

date & time of capture||"signature count"||"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count"
25/6/16 20:21:43||2367548||365483
25/6/16 22:01:10||2547875||2401768
||(+180327)||(+2036285)

Therefore you can see that between those two times (2 hrs 20 mins) the total number of signatures increased from 2.36 million to 2.54 million (up 180,327). In the same time the number of signatures from the UK rose from 365,000 to 2.4 million. That's an increase of 2036285! (2 million).

How can an increase of 2 million UK signatures translate to a total increase in signatures of only 180,000? The total should be nearer 4.36 million for the later file.

This shows that the file has been altered, specifically the number in the "United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count" field. This was done after people looked at the json file and saw that of the 2.36m "signatures" only 365,000 were from the UK.
Click to expand...
Give it up dude. Your gone
 
kevsta said:
I looked at the file too, but didn't (know how to) do analysis on it.

basically saying that there are only actually 360k UK names, but that the file was altered last night to say there's 2.4 million+ of them.
Click to expand...



I don't understand. This is the government's own website, right? Are you really saying that something apparently so easy to check has been done to make the reporting of signatures on their website fraudulent?

Are you really saying that the government has added 2 million non-UK signatories to the count on their own website?
 
Sorry that was harsh.

Have you heard of a thing called batches?

It is when say ex pats vote and it's gathered into a .csv file (or equivalent)

Because It is a different procedure

They then import the batch in one go
 
Sunstealer said:
You need to look at 3 things: The time the data was captured by the wayback machine, the total number of signatures and the number of signatures from the UK for two of the files:

date & time of capture||"signature count"||"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count"
25/6/16 20:21:43||2367548||365483
25/6/16 22:01:10||2547875||2401768
||(+180327)||(+2036285)

Therefore you can see that between those two times (2 hrs 20 mins) the total number of signatures increased from 2.36 million to 2.54 million (up 180,327). In the same time the number of signatures from the UK rose from 365,000 to 2.4 million. That's an increase of 2036285! (2 million).

How can an increase of 2 million UK signatures translate to a total increase in signatures of only 180,000? The total should be nearer 4.36 million for the later file.

This shows that the file has been altered, specifically the number in the "United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count" field. This was done after people looked at the json file and saw that of the 2.36m "signatures" only 365,000 were from the UK.
Click to expand...

Don't know process on that page, but there could be difference between "Gross" versus "Validated" signatures.

Just one of possible explanations.
 
Sunstealer said:
You need to look at 3 things: The time the data was captured by the wayback machine, the total number of signatures and the number of signatures from the UK for two of the files:

date & time of capture||"signature count"||"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count"
25/6/16 20:21:43||2367548||365483
25/6/16 22:01:10||2547875||2401768
||(+180327)||(+2036285)

Therefore you can see that between those two times (2 hrs 20 mins) the total number of signatures increased from 2.36 million to 2.54 million (up 180,327). In the same time the number of signatures from the UK rose from 365,000 to 2.4 million. That's an increase of 2036285! (2 million).

How can an increase of 2 million UK signatures translate to a total increase in signatures of only 180,000? The total should be nearer 4.36 million for the later file.

This shows that the file has been altered, specifically the number in the "United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count" field. This was done after people looked at the json file and saw that of the 2.36m "signatures" only 365,000 were from the UK.
Click to expand...

Isn't it possible, just possible, that somebody simply screwed up the post code/IP check?
 
Now Sturgeon thinks that Scotland can veto Brexit. BBC.

To be fair (and critical of the BBC), I can't see anything in the text which justifies the headline. Nor have I seen the actual interview.
 
cullennz said:
Sorry that was harsh.

Have you heard of a thing called batches?

It is when say ex pats vote and it's gathered into a .csv file (or equivalent)

Because It is a different procedure

They then import the batch in one go
Click to expand...



So is the count displayed on the website the correct number of British signatories or not? Will someone please give me a direct answer to this question, since you all have raised it?


ETA count now above 3,120,000


40,000 in just over an hour. Not much more than 48 hours to reach this count.
 
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asydhouse said:
So is the count displayed on the website the correct number of British signatories or not? Will someone please give me a direct answer to this question, since you all have raised it?
Click to expand...
Presumably they got the ex pat data and imported it into the database as a batch.

It is pretty normal
 
Seems to be a suggestion that each devolved parliament will have to give consent to leave the EU and a further suggestion that Scotland won't give it.

A complete **** show awaits.

Edited by Agatha: 
Edited to comply with rule 10
 
Last edited by a moderator:
crescent said:
So here is the question: if the referendum was very close (as it was), and polling data starts to show that the majority of the population no longer supports it, what should the government do? After all, the referendum was hailed as being non-binding. Should the government continue to implement policy based on a non-binding referendum if they have data indicating that public opinion has already swung away from the results of the referendum?
Click to expand...

The referendum was never "hailed" as non binding and several large consequences have already hapened since the result.

The UK/EU deal thrashed out by Cameron pre vote, has been declared void. EU leaders are calling for the UK to get on with it immediately, financial markets around the world have taken a hit.

This vote result has implications for the EU. Britain is not alone in having a high % of citizens dissatisfied with the EU, so there is potential for the EU itself to break up.

With all of this going on there is no way in hell the EU will let the UK back out of what it sees as a certain commitment to exit without huge concessions. Too much damage has already been done. If you put up another referendum next month and the choice is to leave or go back to the EU, but, the UK must also accept the Euro as currency, must pay even more to the EU, etc <insert other 'punishments' here> there is no chance the Remain vote would win that referendum.

The petition is irrelevant. Unless a snap General Election is called (probably not going to happen either) and a party campaigns on a "return to the EU" manifesto, (the Lib Dems have stepped up to that plate) AND that party wins a workable majority in parliament the UK is going to exit the EU and in all likelyhood Scotland will exit the UK.

In theory the referendum is not binding, in practise it pretty much is.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
How will milk get cheaper? In a lit of cases farmers are already losing money on milk production.

We pay 87p for 2 pints. That's cheaper than some bottled waters.

It's the Supermarkets and the 'middlemen' milk processing dairies that set the price.

With an EU exit and probably a tariff on milk imports in the future I would think there is more chance of a price rise.
Click to expand...

The UK is usually a net exporter of fresh milk, so it's possible that as a result of tariffs imposed by the EU more UK milk would be released to the market, which could have a temporary downward effect. Long term...well, supermarkets are really reluctant to increase the price of milk, so the scenario I see is an increase in the rate of consolidation of the supply side.
 
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