Brexit: the referendum

Information Analyst said:
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2. £5 billion rebate deducted at our end..........
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I don't think this is strictly correct. We make the gross payment including the rebate, and then get the rebate sent back at the end of the financial year, as I understand it.
 
The figure 350 million per week is the amount of money we don't control.

I think the rebate may be deducted before we even send the money, but the rebate might be reduced or eliminated in the future if we vote to remain.

And then of the remaining money after the rebate, we get some of that back too in the form of subsidies for farmers and various other organisations.

But we only get about half of the money back in total - the rest goes off to fund things happening in other EU countries.

It's like handing over a hundred pounds to someone, and then they give you fifty pounds back but tell you how you have to spend that fifty.
 
ceptimus said:
It's like handing over a hundred pounds to someone, and then they give you fifty pounds back but tell you how you have to spend that fifty.
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What if they give you free parking where others have to pay, and/or a discount at their shop?

Could it be £50 well spent?
 
Mid said:
Well most studies of the impact of EU migrants seem to argue they've had a positive impact although the net impact is dependent on where in the EU they come from. In general though arguing that EU migration has caused massive gains/losses to the UK economy is a bit of side-track in the economic debate about EU membership.
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Indeed. There's the immigration issue and the economic issue, the former, of course, pushed by Leavers and the latter pushed by Remainers.

Even the budget contribution, at about £8.5bn last year, pales against the whole economy, and the whole economy cannot be picked apart into EU-related and strictly national. The Leavers economic arguments are simply specious.
 
Information Analyst said:
And selling their UK fishing licences to non-UK vessels.
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Some parts of the industry are doing well.
For example boats out of Scarborough and Whitby make a profit from the live Lobster and Langoustine trade.
They are retained in tanks and sent all over the UK and Europe.
 
Corsair 115 said:
That's funny, because I've heard the exact same thing said about the Stay side.
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I'd be shocked if they didn't but then again the Remain campaign hasn't repeatedly been criticised by independent and impartial bodies for repeatedly making false claims (£350m a week being an example), telling lies (there is no immediate prospect of Turkey joining the EU) and engaging in blatant scaremongering (Farage's comments about being raped by Turks).

Whatever you may think about the accuracy of the Remain campaign's statements, they haven't attracted the same level of criticism from independent and impartial bodies.
 
ceptimus said:
The figure 350 million per week is the amount of money we don't control.

I think the rebate may be deducted before we even send the money, but the rebate might be reduced or eliminated in the future if we vote to remain.

And then of the remaining money after the rebate, we get some of that back too in the form of subsidies for farmers and various other organisations.

But we only get about half of the money back in total - the rest goes off to fund things happening in other EU countries.
It's like handing over a hundred pounds to someone, and then they give you fifty pounds back but tell you how you have to spend that fifty.
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Not 100% true. When Cameron "gave" £1500 to every house holder that was flooded didn't come from government coffers - it came from the EU. Eden project would not have been completed if it wasn't for cash from the EU, so we do get some of it back one way or another
 
The Don said:
I'd be shocked if they didn't but then again the Remain campaign hasn't repeatedly been criticised by independent and impartial bodies for repeatedly making false claims (£350m a week being an example), telling lies (there is no immediate prospect of Turkey joining the EU) and engaging in blatant scaremongering (Farage's comments about being raped by Turks).

Whatever you may think about the accuracy of the Remain campaign's statements, they haven't attracted the same level of criticism from independent and impartial bodies.
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I'm in the Brexit camp, primarily for reasons of geopolitics rather than economics.

However, I am appalled at the shoddy quality of the campaigning, and the appalling mis-use of statistics and "facts" by BOTH sides.

This referendum must surely go down in history as the most bad-tempered ever !

One thought about those "independent and impartial bodes", The Don. Many of them appear to be basing their outcomes on a common (unproven) assumption; that GDP would decline for an extended period post-Brexit. Take this 'article of faith' away, and all of their forecasts simultaneously fail ! So whilst there are many of these reports, they are not - from a strictly scientific perspective - independent.

On the other hand, the continuous failure of various Brexit polticians to admit that the £350 million figure is hogwash is just becoming a national embarrassment. We may have to leave the EU (and put paper bags over our heads) just out of sheer shame.
 
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Roofgardener said:
I'm in the Brexit camp, primarily for reasons of geopolitics rather than economics.

However, I am appalled at the shoddy quality of the campaigning, and the appalling mis-use of statistics and "facts" by BOTH sides.

This referendum must surely go down in history as the most bad-tempered ever !

One thought about those "independent and impartial bodes", The Don. Many of them appear to be basing their outcomes on a common (unproven) assumption; that GDP would decline for an extended period post-Brexit. Take this 'article of faith' away, and all of their forecasts simultaneously fail ! So whilst there are many of these reports, they are not - from a strictly scientific perspective - independent.

On the other hand, the continuous failure of various Brexit polticians to admit that the £350 million figure is hogwash is just becoming a national embarrassment. We may have to leave the EU (and put paper bags over our heads) just out of sheer shame.
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The decline in GDP is not an unproven assumption. It's a forecast based on their analysis of future events. You can disagree with the analysis if you like and argue the facts that support it but you can't just dismiss it. The fact that so many agree on it does not point to it being wrong . Quite the opposite .
 
quadraginta said:
If the Brexit referendum results in a vote to leave, what then?

What will be the subsequent steps?
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It depends.

In essence we hand in our notice wait two years and we're out

In reality I expect there would be more protracted negotiations. Gove seemed to suggest 2020 last night?
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It depends.

In essence we hand in our notice wait two years and we're out

In reality I expect there would be more protracted negotiations. Gove seemed to suggest 2020 last night?
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What I have read suggests that it would require the unanimous approval of all 27 remaining member states to extend negotiations beyond two years. Is that likely?
 
quadraginta said:
What I have read suggests that it would require the unanimous approval of all 27 remaining member states to extend negotiations beyond two years. Is that likely?
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It's 2 years from the moment we hand in our notice AFAIK. Presumably we could begin negotiations prior to officially resigning. I don't think Leave have really thought that far ahead to be honest.

The requisite paperwork would have to go through Parliament - that would take a while.

There would also be the issue of whether we send Cameron to do the negotiating or whether we need to find a new PM first before we even start.

I also think if DC resigned and BJ was appointed there would be a case to be made that we should have a general election to provide him with a popular mandate BEFORE he negotiated to leave the EU.

That two year period might be quite a mad one in some ways because it would be last chance saloon for a lot of things potentially.
 
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