Endorsements

[Maya22]

Do endorsements make a difference?

AFSCME endorses Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton Wins AFSCME Endorsement

Council 57 of AFSCME endorses Bernie Sanders
Legislative Endorsements for Primary Election

I find it interesting that AFSCME (national) endorses one presidential candidate while Council 57 of AFSCME (local chapter) endorses another presidential candidate. Does anyone else know of other instances of this happening?

 

[Maya22]

Celebrity endorsement tracker with pictures

 

[Loss Leader]

Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight started the primary season using endorsements as a small corrector in his "Polls Plus" model. However, he found that the "Polls Only" model has been producing better results. "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed Up on Donald Trump"

Union endorsements may be a bigger deal because unions usually send out voting cards to their members. I've never seen numbers on how effective these are.

 

[sunmaster14]

Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight started the primary season using endorsements as a small corrector in his "Polls Plus" model. However, he found that the "Polls Only" model has been producing better results. "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed Up on Donald Trump"

At the risk of tarnishing my reputation as the most humble person in the world, I'm going to take this opportunity to brag. Here's Nate Silver from your link (emphasis added):

The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates.[3] And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence.

And here's me from last September:

FWIW, Nate Silver says Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the nomination at this point.

I don't think it's worth much. Silver sounds more like a political pundit and less like a statistician, and he is speaking well outside his area of competency. First, his comparison to past primaries is meaningless. Each primary is different, and the world has been changing rapidly. Even his comparisons aren't accurate because Trump has been on top of the polling for far longer than any other frontrunner who flamed out. Second, I think his claim that attention to the candidates is only 20% of what it will be in January and February is completely wrong. There has been intense interest in this campaign so far, and I don't think it's possible to multiply it by a factor of 5, or even 2.

How do you like them apples Nate?

 

[Loss Leader]

At the risk of tarnishing my reputation as the most humble person in the world, I'm going to take this opportunity to brag.

Well, seeing as Nate Silver agrees with you about Nate Silver, I'm in no position to argue.

My predictions for this election cycle have been uniformly terrible. Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, you're as partisan as I am in our own ways.

 

[Maya22]

There's only one newspaper in California that has endorsed Donald Trump

From article: :That paper? The already controversial Santa Barbara News-Press.

Politico pointed out the California anomaly in its Monday morning newsletter. Not only is it Trump's only endorsement from a California paper, it's one of the few anywhere in the nation. So far, he's gotten official endorsements from the National Enquirer, New York Observer and New York Post."

 

[Maya22]

Newspaper endorsements in the United States presidential election, 2016


Newspaper endorsements in the United States presidential primaries, 2016