Brexit: the referendum

[Henri McPhee]

The EU has just increased sanctions against the Syrian government in order to force regime change, and increase the number of Syrian refugees coming to Europe and the UK. This was never reported in the mainstream media. We shall be unable to maintain even the appearance of friendly relations.

 

[uke2se]

The EU has just increased sanctions against the Syrian government in order to force regime change, and increase the number of Syrian refugees coming to Europe and the UK. This was never reported in the mainstream media. We shall be unable to maintain even the appearance of friendly relations.

I'm pretty sure it wasn't reported by the mainstream media because it's a paranoid delusion.

 

[jimbob]

The EU has just increased sanctions against the Syrian government in order to force regime change, and increase the number of Syrian refugees coming to Europe and the UK. This was never reported in the mainstream media. We shall be unable to maintain even the appearance of friendly relations.

Have you considered checking facts before posting every anti EU, and anti Semitic story that you come across or think up yourself?

 

[ohms]

The EU has just increased sanctions against the Syrian government in order to force regime change, and increase the number of Syrian refugees coming to Europe and the UK. This was never reported in the mainstream media. We shall be unable to maintain even the appearance of friendly relations.

No they didn't. the EU renewed existing sanctions to run for another year.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/05/27-syria-eu-extends-sanctions/

 

[CapelDodger]

It's now quite apparent that the referendum is really a party political matter for the conservatives.

The Guardian headlined the poll of economists as a boost, not to the Remain cause, but to Cameron. Which says it all, really.

 

[CapelDodger]

And increasingly savage, with open calls for Cameron to quit and talk of a no-confidence vote.

And accusations of sharing a platform with someone who's shared a platform with extremists ...

Therell be no patching this up over a few bottles of bubbly and a rousing chorus of the Eton Boating Song.

My wager on the next general election being in 2016 doesn't look so far-fetched after all.

What odds are you asking?

I myself doubt enough Tories will have the stomach for another election campaign after all this lot, and of course a change of Prime Minister does not require a general election. Still, everything's a gamble in these uncertain times.

 

[jimbob]

It doesn't really matter about Conservative turmoil as tge opposition is pretty dysfunctional too. There have been several open goals but Corbyn has decided to use the opportunity to use them to talk about causes close to the heart of the left, but uninteresting or generally opposed by most of the electorate.

Raising the subject of the Falkland Islands when he didn't need to, for example.

 

[Stuart]

And how on earth do you get the idea that to reform the EU we have to leave it? And let's just say those reforms do happen they then won't do us as a nonmember any good.

This is one of my reasons for voting to stay in, another is that I have yet to hear a single fact based argument for leaving - all I have heard so far is speculation.

 

[Darat]

They'd only be important to companies exporting to those trading partners.

If the rules on widgets were less strict in the UK it could help small businesses start up here making widgets and selling to only the UK, before growing large enough to then make widgets that met stricter standards that they could also export.

Why would the rules be less strict if we left the EU? In many areas our rules are much stricter than the EU "dictates" now.

I view many of the EU regulations etc. as being the absolute minimum and view them as often being too lax because they are trying to be "business friendly" (For instance animal welfare.)

 

[funk de fino]

A comment on one of the pieces on the Guardian.

"It's not a matter of support for either the Cameron / Osborne clique or the raft of buffoons with Bojo, Gove, IDS, Farage etc. Cameron and Osborne have repeatedly shown over the last six years that they are unfit to run the economy, but we knew that already.

So let's ignore the buffoons on both sides: we'll just ignore anything that Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson, Farage, Galloway, IDS etc says about the subject.

Now what have we got left? On the one hand the vast majority of experts in any field (economics, traded, diplomacy, science etc) say firmly that leaving would have consequences ranging from bad to very bad indeed.

And how do the Leave side counter this? Do they bring an equal amount of experts to counter those views? No, of course they don't, because they can't. Instead they try to use the same tactic of insults and untruths they use to attack Cameron and Osborne. If they had sensible, coherent evidence to support their case don't you think they would have deployed it by now? Their evidence wouldn't even have to be good enough to convince the majority of experts. Even if, for example, economists, global bodies and our partners were split 60-40 in favour of In, you'd think that there was a genuine difference of opinion with sensible views on both sides. But when the split is something like 90-10 as it is now?

That's the difference. That's why it's wrong to equate both sides as "both as bad as each other". Of course, experts can be wrong, but with a serious decision like this, you have to go with the best probability and when there is a strong weight of expert opinion on one side, and very little on the other, then it should be fairly obvious which is the right choice."

 

[GlennB]

What odds are you asking?

I myself doubt enough Tories will have the stomach for another election campaign after all this lot, and of course a change of Prime Minister does not require a general election. Still, everything's a gamble in these uncertain times.

I also think there won't be a GE this year, but the odds seemed attractive. I got 15-1 and they're currently 11-1, so presumably the bookies are getting some interest in 2016.

 

[Darat]

Interesting hypothesis, Darat.

But here's a thought... the Conservatives... as the party of government.. are in the media spotlight.

I wonder what the divisions within the Labour party are regarding the EU ? I suspect that they are being swept under the carpet in order to present a unified front against the Conservatives ?

Labour has never been united on the EU. The difference for Labour is that it isn't seen as such an issue that the party should put the whole future of the UK at risk simply because there are differences of opinion.

On the tory side we have a load of conservatives that are willing to do anything to get us out of the EU and damn any consequences.

 

[MCel58]

There was a legal case recently of a man that caused permanent paralysis below the waste for two little girls by dangerous driving in a road rage incident where he tail-gated another woman.

The point is it turns out that judges can no longer give a sentence of more than five years for causing death or injury by dangerous driving. I was wondering to myself if this was just another daft ruling by the European Court of Justice.

At least with Brexit it would bring back English Justice, even if the theory of the perfection of English Justice is humbug.

I think you might find that is not just English justice but also Scottish justice as the law in Scotland is different from England

 

[Roofgardener]

There was a legal case recently of a man that caused permanent paralysis below the waste for two little girls by dangerous driving in a road rage incident where he tail-gated another woman.

The point is it turns out that judges can no longer give a sentence of more than five years for causing death or injury by dangerous driving. I was wondering to myself if this was just another daft ruling by the European Court of Justice.

At least with Brexit it would bring back English Justice, even if the theory of the perfection of English Justice is humbug.

Unfortunately, English (!?) law has been soft on "murder by car" ever since the car was invented.

In addition, it appears there is a difference between "causing death....." - which carries a much harsher sentencing option - and "causing injury... ", which is limited to 5 years.

 

[Henri McPhee]

A comment on one of the pieces on the Guardian.

"It's not a matter of support for either the Cameron / Osborne clique or the raft of buffoons with Bojo, Gove, IDS, Farage etc. Cameron and Osborne have repeatedly shown over the last six years that they are unfit to run the economy, but we knew that already.

So let's ignore the buffoons on both sides: we'll just ignore anything that Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson, Farage, Galloway, IDS etc says about the subject.

Now what have we got left? On the one hand the vast majority of experts in any field (economics, traded, diplomacy, science etc) say firmly that leaving would have consequences ranging from bad to very bad indeed.

And how do the Leave side counter this? Do they bring an equal amount of experts to counter those views? No, of course they don't, because they can't. Instead they try to use the same tactic of insults and untruths they use to attack Cameron and Osborne. If they had sensible, coherent evidence to support their case don't you think they would have deployed it by now? Their evidence wouldn't even have to be good enough to convince the majority of experts. Even if, for example, economists, global bodies and our partners were split 60-40 in favour of In, you'd think that there was a genuine difference of opinion with sensible views on both sides. But when the split is something like 90-10 as it is now?

That's the difference. That's why it's wrong to equate both sides as "both as bad as each other". Of course, experts can be wrong, but with a serious decision like this, you have to go with the best probability and when there is a strong weight of expert opinion on one side, and very little on the other, then it should be fairly obvious which is the right choice."

Economics is not built on a scientific rock, and neither is gangster government. Mediocre business leadership is OK if there are first class products. What is needed is leadership, which seems to be a very rare commodity. That woman was right when she said Cameron is too rich to be concerned about immigration, and the same goes for housing problems, and the loss of staff in the Coast Guard Service.

 

[funk de fino]

Economics is not built on a scientific rock, and neither is gangster government. Mediocre business leadership is OK if there are first class products. What is needed is leadership, which seems to be a very rare commodity. That woman was right when she said Cameron is too rich to be concerned about immigration, and the same goes for housing problems, and the loss of staff in the Coast Guard Service.

More piffle. Still think the EU is anything to do with the courts? Or are you just ignoring your inaccuracies in the hope something will stick?

 

[GlennB]

A Guardian poll (phone + online) puts it 52-48 in favour of leaving

 

[Darat]

Unfortunately, English (!?) law has been soft on "murder by car" ever since the car was invented.

In addition, it appears there is a difference between "causing death....." - which carries a much harsher sentencing option - and "causing injury... ", which is limited to 5 years.

Just as an aside , that's not accurate. We ended up with the likes of dangerous driving, driving under the influence and so on because the prosecution services couldn't get prosecutions for the likes of murder and manslaughter for car related deaths. Juries just didn't come back with guilty sentences. It is interesting how society has changed and today the popular opinion is that people should be charged with murder etc.

 

[Darat]

A Guardian poll (phone + online) puts it 52-48 in favour of leaving

Frightening.

 

[The Don]

A Guardian poll (phone + online) puts it 52-48 in favour of leaving

Frightening.

It seems that the argument seems to be coming down to immigration. It seems that it's more important to be able to exclude immigrants than it is to have a vibrant economy for them (and us) to work in


Note: I am exceptionally partial on the matter, it is highly likely that my business will at best be badly affected and most likely will go under if we leave the EU with the associated pain that will cause for me and my employees