Hillary Clinton is Done: part 2

[Skeptic Ginger]

Unless some Black Swan event happens, which aren't exactly unheard of in politics.

I'm not saying it's likely, and the betting odds on Sanders are at 3%, but who thought Hart would blow it? Or Kennedy would be shot after winning California? Or Nixon would end up resigning?

Has there even been a primary contest where the candidate in the lead has been embroiled in an ongoing FBI investigation? No? Then this situation is unique, and Bernie can honestly say he still has a chance.

So you are basing your hopes on an indictment that won't happen, an assassination, and some new sex scandal that we don't already know about?

Gee, by those measures it's possible Biden might end up being the nominee.

 

[Bob001]

Sanders has gotten 67% or better in 7 states. And you think it's reasonable to say he might get 67% of the remaining delegates?

Barring a catastrophe, Hillary will be the nominee. The real issue is that she, who has been planning to run for president at least since 2000, should have had such a tough battle against an elderly, unknown, self-avowed socialist from a tiny, atypical state. A more mainstream candidate could have left Hillary in the dust. Many voters, particularly independents, don't think Hillary should be president, and they're not all rabid Trumpians or tools of the "vast right-wing conspiracy." Trump could win if the voters who don't like Hillary just stay home.

 

[uke2se]

Barring a catastrophe, Hillary will be the nominee. The real issue is that she, who has been planning to run for president at least since 2000, should have had such a tough battle against an elderly, unknown, self-avowed socialist from a tiny, atypical state. A more mainstream candidate could have left Hillary in the dust. Many voters, particularly independents, don't think Hillary should be president, and they're not all rabid Trumpians or tools of the "vast right-wing conspiracy." Trump could win if the voters who don't like Hillary just stay home.

Who is this mystical candidate that would have blown Bernie out of the water? He/She must be great, or does that mean Sanders is a terrible candidate?

 

[Bob001]

Who is this mystical candidate that would have blown Bernie out of the water? He/She must be great, or does that mean Sanders is a terrible candidate?

I think at least some of Sanders' support is not necessarily an endorsement of his specific policies, but a rejection of Hillary. I think Elizabeth Warren, Corey Booker, Deval Patrick, Julian Castro and even Joe Biden could have taken votes from both Hillary and Bernie.

 

[uke2se]

I think at least some of Sanders' support is not necessarily an endorsement of his specific policies, but a rejection of Hillary. I think Elizabeth Warren, Corey Booker, Deval Patrick, Julian Castro and even Joe Biden could have taken votes from both Hillary and Bernie.

Okay, so ranking actual Democratic candidates in your view is:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Bernie Sanders

All according to the logic you're defending here. Is that right?

 

[Bob001]

Okay, so ranking actual Democratic candidates in your view is:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Bernie Sanders

All according to the logic you're defending here. Is that right?

What?? That ranking is the actual fact. My point is that the ranking could have been different if other Democratic leaders had run. What's your point?

 

[uke2se]

What?? That ranking is the actual fact. My point is that the ranking could have been different if other Democratic leaders had run. What's your point?

My point is that no other candidates are running. Three two people are. The argument at hand is that the winning candidate is a terrible candidate because so many people wouldn't vote for her. Surely that would make the losing candidate even worse?

 

[BobTheCoward]

As I have been saying, she is the median candidate and I think it invites an odd scorn. Take her gay marriage stance. I see a lot of noise about her position, but a plurality of democrats didn't support gay marriage until recently. For years the plurality supported civil unions.

It raises some interesting questions about what role a president should have in a political party.

 

[The Big Dog]

I see you've degenerated to outright lies.

Irony.

Must be some of that Hillary delusion syndrome I hear so much about lately.

 

[The Big Dog]

As I have been saying, she is the median candidate and I think it invites an odd scorn. Take her gay marriage stance. I see a lot of noise about her position, but a plurality of democrats didn't support gay marriage until recently. For years the plurality supported civil unions.

It raises some interesting questions about what role a president should have in a political party.

Well she was a bit more extreme than that. Her husband signed the DOMA, and she said that marriage was a "sacred" bond between a man and a woman while stumping for it.

Sacred of course until her pollsters told her otherwise, amiright?

 

[BobTheCoward]

Well she was a bit more extreme than that. Her husband signed the DOMA, and she said that marriage was a "sacred" bond between a man and a woman while stumping for it.

Sacred of course until her pollsters told her otherwise, amiright?

When DOMA was signed that was a reasonable Democrat position. And it changed with the poll numbers.

I don't see a problem with a politician being so staunchly the median of their party. But how much weight should be given to someone taking an aspirational view of party position?

 

[lionking]

Seriously? We're going to throw claims around like "mathematically impossible" and then cry foul when we're challenged on them?

This is a skeptic's forum, is it not? Is it your claim that it's mathematically impossible for Bernie to win enough delegates to get the nomination? If you're claiming that, you're wrong. I can give you three scenarios:

1. Clinton gets embroiled in some new scandal, Sander's wins the remaining contests by 70-30, ends up with a majority of pledged delegates, and the super-delegates fall in line.

2. Clinton is indicted and withdraws from the race (or loses the remaining contests so badly, Bernie gets a majority of pledged delegates).

3. Clinton dies, either by natural causes or is assassinated, and Bernie wins all the delegates that are left.

There's precedent for all three. Gary Hart was the front-runner in May, FBI investigations often end in indictments, and Robert Kennedy was killed after winning California.

You left out 4. Clinton gets abducted by aliens.

The combination of wishful thinking and desperation in this thread is hilarious. Can't wait to serve the humble pie.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Wow, I always thought that "clinton is the daughter of satan" rhetoric was largely reserved for the GOP and not Ron Paul- Sorry, Bernie Sanders supporters.

 

[WildCat]

You might want to read about it before dismissing it given there is a history of the trend. All of Trump's competitors dropped out. It was a de facto win at that point.

I've never heard of a "post-nomination bump" prior to the convention. This is just wishful thinking by Hillary's supporters.

 

[The Big Dog]

When DOMA was signed that was a reasonable Democrat position. And it changed with the poll numbers.

I don't see a problem with a politician being so staunchly the median of their party. But how much weight should be given to someone taking an aspirational view of party position?

She said it was sacred, and then abandoned what she held sacred.

The woman has zero principles.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Barring a catastrophe, Hillary will be the nominee. The real issue is that she, who has been planning to run for president at least since 2000, should have had such a tough battle against an elderly, unknown, self-avowed socialist from a tiny, atypical state. A more mainstream candidate could have left Hillary in the dust. Many voters, particularly independents, don't think Hillary should be president, and they're not all rabid Trumpians or tools of the "vast right-wing conspiracy." Trump could win if the voters who don't like Hillary just stay home.

That's not the narrative as I see it. Clinton has had to deal with decades of accusations and innuendo, and like it or not, there are people whose underlying sexism colors their perception of her. And yet, she's won the nomination.

Sanders found an audience in disaffected young people.

As for Trump, he played well to the base given the competition he had split the vote. And despite the sometimes exposing news coverage, he's gotten a massive amount of news amplifying his credibility. That won't last.

"Ooh, look at this new shiny thing" will soon be an old story with an attenuated effect. It will give way to the never ending supply of juicy clips and audio snippets from his past.

And his schtick risks getting old fast. Did you see the latest video from his jet telling "National Hispanic Christians" (an association he was pandering to) how good he's going to make it for them? He kept looking down at his notes, very poorly done.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...p-reaches-out-to-hispanic-christians-in-video

 

[BobTheCoward]

She said it was sacred, and then abandoned what she held sacred.

The woman has zero principles.

As did a lot of people if you follow the polling on it.

 

[The Big Dog]

As did a lot of people if you follow the polling on it.

From sacred to profane, the Hillary Clinton story, a life lived by polls.

She'll have plenty of time to write it in jail.

 

[Fudbucker]

You left out 4. Clinton gets abducted by aliens.

Right, because scandals erupting in the middle of campaigns and politicians running afoul of the law are on par with alien abductions. How close did sleazebag John Edwards come to being VP? Less than a hundred thousand Ohio votes?

The combination of wishful thinking and desperation in this thread is hilarious. Can't wait to serve the humble pie.

It's actually kind of sad that so many Democrats are desperate for someone other than Clinton to be the nominee, and that Clinton herself will likely be the second most disliked nominee of a major political party. Second to Trump, of course.

 

[wareyin]

Right, because scandals erupting in the middle of campaigns and politicians running afoul of the law are on par with alien abductions. How close did sleazebag John Edwards come to being VP? Less than a hundred thousand Ohio votes?

How many years had the GOP spent scrutinizing Edwards before his run? Oh, that's right, this situation is nothing like that one, so this argument relies on a false equivalence. Hows about you start comparing like to like, since you are complaining about accuracy?

It's actually kind of sad that so many Democrats are desperate for someone other than Clinton to be the nominee, and that Clinton herself will likely be the second most disliked nominee of a major political party. Second to Trump, of course.

In other words, Clinton is the most liked candidate of this election cycle. And that is including failed candidacies like O'Malley, Sanders, Rubio, Kasich, and all the rest. Yep, in bizarro world, the most liked candidates are the ones that basically nobody votes for, while the most disliked candidates are the ones everybody is casting their vote for!