I understand the alum can analogy. I question of there was enough debris pushing at the columns of the lower section.... and where would be be pushing?
I think a possibility was that the interior collapse caused the structures in the core when they dropped to pull the lower portions of the moment frame via the beams and girders spanning between the core and the perimeter.
I think this explains the tall vertical kink which appears to be where the girder 44-79 was located.
So I am suggesting it was an INWARD pull by the beams and girders and attached slabs rather than the accumulation of debris pushing outward.
You might be right about this.
But I'm talking about a point in time much later than the formation of the C44-C79 kink.
See here:
These are 3 sequential time steps in NIST's collapse model.
(And, no, I don't think that this is holy writ & infallible.)
The only way that I can think of (now) to distinguish "it just buckled outward" from "it buckled outward from the accumulation of falling debris against the inside of the outer wall" would be by re-running the FEA, and constructing an artificial, thin-wall, infinitely strong "tub" just inside the outer wall, attached to no other component, which would catch all the fallen debris and prevent its load from being transmitted to the outer wall.
There is frankly no particular point to doing this exercise.
But you bring up the exact reason that I think that it happened due to the mechanism I described. The falling debris alone would put a very large inward pull force on the outside walls. From the mechanism you describe, I would fully expect the buckling to be an INWARD buckling.
The buckling shown in NIST's simulation, and much more importantly, as described by the witness, was an OUTWARD buckling of the entire lower wall of the north face. Pretty much as shown in the screen grabs above.
The point of this is that the period of free fall is very likely directly associated with the formation of this low kink. As soon as the (approximately 8 story) 3 knuckle kink forms, the external north walls ability to support load goes to near zero. And one would fully expect a near free fall collapse.
As I've stated previously, the 8 - 10 story collapse that had already happened across the entire core, at the same elevation as this external kink, supports "building on stilts" interpretation of events. And these images show the buckling of the stilts.
Last edited: