Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

[Belz...]

She will win maybe one more state. And I am not even sure of that.

Based on phone banking. I used to encounter many more Hillary supporters than I did in Wisconsin or that I am with New York. The tide has turned.

Sanders has also had considerable good NY Press, Just as Hillary has continued to suffer the consequences of her surrogates and her own ambitious incompetency.

Oops.

 

[Donal]

Ya, the Hillary getting bad press thing in New York was pretty off. Especially when the Daily News tried to pass off their own editorial board's ignorance as sanders' fault. The fact is, the major outlets that aren't right wing mouthpieces like the Post have backed Hillary.

 

[wareyin]

Sanders now needs 1,138 delegates out of the remaining 1,595 delegates (pledged and super) to secure the nomination. That's 71.3%.

In contrast, Clinton needs 459, or 28.7% of the remaining delegates.

These numbers are from The Green Papers, who have Clinton at 1,446 pledged and 478 super. It's even worse for Bernie using the NYTimes' numbers, which have him needing 72.5% of the remaining delegates to Clinton's 27.5%.

 

[pgwenthold]

Because they are going to treat Hillary so well.

Republicans have spent 25 years going after Hillary with both barrels. You think they have something tucked in their pockets they have been holding back?

Meanwhile, they haven't even STARTED going after Sanders. Heck, they've been doing their best to support Sanders because they know that Hillary is a much bigger concern for them.

 

[jhunter1163]

As I wrote in one of the other threads, Sanders polls better against the Republicans because the GOP has largely ignored him, figuring (probably correctly) that the Democratic primary voters would take care of him for them. Clinton is their target because she will almost certainly be the nominee.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

It's not over

"Jeff Weaver, Sanders' campaign manager, insisted his candidate will fight on following the Tuesday loss. He suggested the campaign would look to flip superdelegates from Clinton to Sanders ahead of the Democratic convention in July.

"Look, we're going to go to the convention," he said on MSNBC. "It is extremely unlikely that either candidate will have the requisite number of pledged delegates to get to this number. … It's going to be an election determined by the superdelegates."

http://www.businessinsider.com/sanders-supporters-disappointed-but-determined-after-new-york-2016-4

Translation: Send more money!

 

[d4m10n]

Yep, now with 98.5% counted the numbers are 57.9% to 42.1%.

The aforementioned demographic model predicted 58.1% to 41.9% in New York.

[emoji12]

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm going to predict 58 Clinton 42 Sanders because of the 4% still not reported, a good chunk of that is in heavily populated boroughs Clinton has large leads in. A smaller proportion is upstate.

Currently it's 57.7 to 42.3 with 95.7% reporting.

And now with 99.6% reporting the numbers clicked over to 58:42.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The aforementioned demographic model predicted 58.1% to 41.9% in New York.

[emoji12]

So applying the same model to a closed primary and an open caucus should have no bearing?

My criticism of the model wasn't that it would never be predictive. My criticism was that it only considered one variable, demographics and there were other important variables.

We have a substantial minority population in WA. What did the demographics only model predict for WA?

 

[TheL8Elvis]

The aforementioned demographic model predicted 58.1% to 41.9% in New York.

[emoji12]

How is that even possible ?

I heard since Michigan polling is black magic and totally unreliable !

 

[Fudbucker]

Well, Bernie needs some Black Swan event now. There are two that can happen: Hillary makes a gaffe so awful, it basically disqualifies her. That doesn't seem too likely. Or the FBI recommends charges be filed against her. We don't know the likelihood of this, and I think it would finish her campaign.

 

[d4m10n]

How is that even possible ?

I heard since Michigan polling is black magic and totally unreliable !

I didn't use polling, unless you count actual voters at the actual polls. The model was based on primary voting in the first two dozen or so states.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I didn't use polling, unless you count actual voters at the actual polls. The model was based on primary voting in the first two dozen or so states.

The model is based on demographic make up of the voters and takes nothing else into considerations IIRC.

 

[TheL8Elvis]

I didn't use polling, unless you count actual voters at the actual polls. The model was based on primary voting in the first two dozen or so states.

OMG you gamed the system.

 

[d4m10n]

Well, Bernie needs some Black Swan event now.

I can think of a few possibilities:

- Terminal illness; any other life-threatening condition (e.g. plane crash)

- Criminal indictment from the Justice Dept.

- Sex scandal (e.g. D.C. Madam)

Of course Bernie isn't perfectly immune to such things, either. Unless he has heretofore unknown powers and has yet to reveal his final form.

 

[The Big Dog]

CTFITAW =======>

(Assuming that-a-way is three words)

said then-Sen. Hillary Clinton at a progressive conference in Chicago in 2007. “We’re really putting together a network in the blogosphere, in a lot of the new progressive infrastructure, institutions that I helped to start and support like Media Matters and Center for American Progress.”

 

[d4m10n]

The model is based on demographic make up of the voters and takes nothing else into considerations IIRC.

URC, IIRC

 

[dudalb]

Sanders only needs to flip 3 or 4 hundred delegates, and then he's right back in the race. That should be fairly easy to do; a cakewalk.

You really don't know much about politics, do you?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well, Bernie needs some Black Swan event now. There are two that can happen: Hillary makes a gaffe so awful, it basically disqualifies her. That doesn't seem too likely. Or the FBI recommends charges be filed against her. We don't know the likelihood of this, and I think it would finish her campaign.

Closer to zero than the first one.

 

[Puppycow]

Unless she has a REALLY BIG class, I doubt the dozen or so votes would have made a difference.

By that logic nobody at all should vote. No one person's vote ever makes a difference (but for the extremely unlikely possibility of a single tie-breaking vote).