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Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

Looks like Hillary must claim 65% of remaining delegates to avoid a floor fight...

Please show your numbers.

NVM. I see Ben's not going to show his numbers, so he's just electioneering again. Woo!

I love the convenient math. "Well, if we take the superdelegates out, she'd need 55% of all the remaining delegates, if we add the superdelegates back in to get to that total, that is." If you don't count the "committed" superdelegates in her tally, then you can't count them in the "needed" column, either. And it still doesn't come to 65%.

The superdelegates, as has been explained before, are not - FOR THE MOST PART - going to change to supporting Sanders. If a few of them take the democratic approach and change over to support the "voice of the people", it's not going to effect the long-term professional politicians. If Bernie wanted the support of those pros, he should've been out there working them. To now tell them that they are immoral if they don't go with "winner takes all" smacks of the GOP. That, for those of you Dems who've missed it, is the party we're fighting to stop.
 
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A floor fight on the Dem side is impossible. There are only two candidates and thus one of them will, without any doubt whatsoever win on the first vote. And the winner will almost certainly be known before the convention.
 


Cher Says She's Now Torn Between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders

Cher said that after blocking people on Twitter she started to "feel uneasy" and went into "marathon research mode" with an open mind. She said that "in the quiet of the night," she discovered that Sanders' beliefs "mirrored" her own more than she had realized. The singer said she was "shaken to her core" by this revelation.

Cher went on to talk about how much she liked and respected Clinton, whom she spent time with when Clinton was running for the Senate. Cher said that she hopes the woman she fought hard for is still there, but that now she's faced with a difficult decision.

"I realize now that I have MUCH common ground and new respect for Bernie Sanders," said Cher, adding that she's torn up.

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-b...on-twitter-session-feels-the-bern-t17833.html
 
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If Bernie wanted the support of those pros, he should've been out there working them.

s/working/bribing

To now tell them that they are immoral if they don't go with "winner takes all" smacks of the GOP.

Actually, the GOP doesn't have super-delegates, so they're looking more "democratic" than the Democratic Party is.

That, for those of you Dems who've missed it, is the party we're fighting to stop.

I'm having a harder and harder time being able to tell the difference. If you Dems want me to believe that you're a liberal party, y'all shouldn't be so hostile to people like Bernie.
 
....

Actually, the GOP doesn't have super-delegates, so they're looking more "democratic" than the Democratic Party is....
They just call them something else. Or have you not noticed the Cruz coup in Colorado taking over Trump delegates?


And you have it reversed. Clinton people like Sanders. It's the Sanders people that hate Clinton and Sanders is promoting that position.
 
And you have it reversed. Clinton people like Sanders. It's the Sanders people that hate Clinton and Sanders is promoting that position.


That's certainly not obvious in this thread, nor is it obvious in general. Clinton herself has been rather dismissive and patronizing in her attitude towards both Sanders and his supporters; when she's not outright lying about his policies and past. That attitude has been shared by most Clinton supporters I've been acquainted with, particularly some of Clinton's most prominent supporters, such as Gloria Steinem and Madeline Albright. I'm trying to think of a way the three of them could have been any more condescending and patronizing and elitist than they were; but not having much success doing so. They're certainly not winning any converts with that approach.
 
They just call them something else. Or have you not noticed the Cruz coup in Colorado taking over Trump delegates?

I thought that the GOP had winner-take-all delegates (i.e. the winner of that state gets ALL of that state's delegates). Come to think of it, that's not very democratic, either. It's just that the Democrats' system is so transparently crooked. The party elites have the ability to just override the people's votes.

And you have it reversed. Clinton people like Sanders. It's the Sanders people that hate Clinton and Sanders is promoting that position.

You must be talking to different "Clinton people". The ones I've seen are flipping out because their party is being taken over by an outsider socialist who represents the "loony left". I think that the Clinton people look at Sanders' fans the same way that the rest of the Republican Party looks at fundie Christians. You can just hear them thinking "Wow, those people are nuts, but we need their votes."

Of course, that makes sense. When you have parties as large and diverse as the Republicans and Democrats, you're going to have radical wings that the rest of the party tolerates in the name of "unity". What bugs me is that "far left" in American politics is like "center" or "center left" in the rest of the industrialized world, so we have a really long way to go before we can even catch up. And the Clinton people have the gall to pretend like we're really on the same side when we aren't.

Take a look at this Facebook post, and read the comments below:

I wish I could understand.

Never again

Our party needs some restrictions on who may run. I'm thinking you need to be a dues paying member for a couple of years instead of when the election begins.

Once this is over, we need to insure that this never happens again to our party.
 
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I thought that the GOP had winner-take-all delegates (i.e. the winner of that state gets ALL of that state's delegates). Come to think of it, that's not very democratic, either.

This entire primary process is not very democratic. At best you can say that it's a in-party candidate selection process that's in part influenced by popular demand.
 
I thought that the GOP had winner-take-all delegates (i.e. the winner of that state gets ALL of that state's delegates). Come to think of it, that's not very democratic, either. It's just that the Democrats' system is so transparently crooked. The party elites have the ability to just override the people's votes.


The GOP has a mix of proportional and winner-take-all states. The latter is somewhat less democratic than the former; but is still more democratic than the superdelegate system.

The Superdelegate system is a modern innovation, proposed in the 1970s, and finally implemented in 1982; in response to previous changes to the Democratic Party convention procedures that were implemented to make them more responsive to voters. It was explicitly done to protect party leaders and the establishment structure against grassroots candidates, which was acknowledged recently by the current DNC chair. Only the Democratic Party uses superdelegates.

You must be talking to different "Clinton people". The ones I've seen are flipping out because their party is being taken over by an outsider socialist who represents the "loony left". I think that the Clinton people look at Sanders' fans the same way that the rest of the Republican Party looks at fundie Christians. You can just hear them thinking "Wow, those people are nuts, but we need their votes."


That's the general tenor of many of the Clinton supporters I've been exposed to; though more often it's more of a "these people are too young/stupid to know what's best for them" attitude. That was certainly the tenor of the Clinton supporters at the local caucus, they were nearly all middle-aged and older, and quite condescending to Sanders supporters.

And the Clinton people have the gall to pretend like we're really on the same side when we aren't.


And this is what it all comes down to. Clinton supporters and Sanders supporters are really not that closely aligned; which is why Clinton and her supporters have been pushing the politics of fear in order to coerce Sanders supporters to vote for her. They criticize Sanders for not supporting other Democrat candidates, but that's patently false, because he does. The difference is that Clinton is pouring her money and support into preserving the elitist establishment wing of the party, while Sanders is putting his support and fundraising behind actual progressive candidates. She and her inner circle seem incapable of understanding that it's that very establishment and the politics it engenders that Sanders and his supporters are against, just like the GOP has a hard time understanding why so many conservative voters have supported Trump's (pseudo-)anti-establishment message.

That's why Steinem and Albright's outright insulting of younger female Sanders supporters has resulted in such a backlash against the Clinton campaign by their target audience. They're attempting to outright order Sanders supporters to vote for Clinton, failing miserably at it, and failing to understand why.

Clinton and her supporters like to pretend to be progressive; but by the standard of the rest of the developed world, they're very much on the conservative side of the spectrum. They're only "left" by contrast to the GOP, which is now so far to the right it can't even see the center. Sanders, by contrast, is a return to the Democratic Party of Roosevelt's time. He's effectively a New Deal progressive, which is something the party elite of that time found as distasteful as the party elite of today does.

Thanks in large part to the Internet, a new generation is growing up into voting age with better access to information unfiltered through traditional biases; and have a far greater direct exposure to world culture and world politics than their predecessors have had. That's a large part of why we're seeing such a huge shift toward progressive politics, and a liberalizing of attitudes toward GLBTs, immigration, internationalization, and so on. They're less satisfied with the paternalism of the elites in either party.

It's no wonder that Clinton's strongest support has come primarily from traditionally conservative, and highly religious regions of the country; and her demographics are predominantly older and religious, and outside of the 1% elites, not as well-connected to world culture. She certainly plays up her religious beliefs in connection to her politics every bit as much as the Republicans do.
 
I thought that the GOP had winner-take-all delegates (i.e. the winner of that state gets ALL of that state's delegates). Come to think of it, that's not very democratic, either. It's just that the Democrats' system is so transparently crooked. The party elites have the ability to just override the people's votes.
Trump won Colorado but the popular vote was just "advisory". Cruz supporters went to the next level up and got all Cruz delegates into the subsequent level, the state convention.



You must be talking to different "Clinton people". The ones I've seen are flipping out because their party is being taken over by an outsider socialist who represents the "loony left". I think that the Clinton people look at Sanders' fans the same way that the rest of the Republican Party looks at fundie Christians. You can just hear them thinking "Wow, those people are nuts, but we need their votes."

Of course, that makes sense. When you have parties as large and diverse as the Republicans and Democrats, you're going to have radical wings that the rest of the party tolerates in the name of "unity". What bugs me is that "far left" in American politics is like "center" or "center left" in the rest of the industrialized world, so we have a really long way to go before we can even catch up. And the Clinton people have the gall to pretend like we're really on the same side when we aren't.

Take a look at this Facebook post, and read the comments below:
Are you confusing the right wing views on Sanders with Clinton supporters' views?

Most all I hear are defenses against Sanders calling Clinton corrupt and the problem he has in that many of us don't think he can be effective.

Your FB link looks to be conflating the TeaParty Left comment with Carville's. Did Carville say that and is his comment being taken out of context such as defending the superdelegates preference for Clinton which does have a basis in Sanders' history of not being a Democrat?

I'd need to look into that.
 
Are you confusing the right wing views on Sanders with Clinton supporters' views?

I'm not going to get into who's "right wing" and who isn't.

Your FB link looks to be conflating the TeaParty Left comment with Carville's. Did Carville say that and is his comment being taken out of context such as defending the superdelegates preference for Clinton which does have a basis in Sanders' history of not being a Democrat?

I'd need to look into that.

Carville's remarks are pretty weird.

I don't know what a progressive is, but he's a socialist. I consider myself a progressive, a Democrat, anything else. But I think which candidate has the best plan for Wall Street? Which candidate has the best plan for manufacturing? The best plan for higher ed. On those measures, I'm excited and comfortable where she is. But can't be more progressive than Bernie Sanders.

So we have some red-baiting and a confusing mess of what the word "progressive" means. First he says that he doesn't know what one is, then that he himself is one, and then that it's impossible to be more progressive than Bernie. WTH?

Oh, but I think this is the quote they're going off of:

We've had two enormously successful Democratic administrations: Clinton and Obama. We've had a disasterous Republican administration in the middle of all this. The Republican Party is cracking up right in front of our eyes; So about 40% of the Democratic Party's answer to this is, 'hey, let's nominate someone who isn't even a Democrat.'

It utterly makes no sense to me. Somebody has to explain it... Why would we abandon these policies now? I have no idea.

:eye-poppi
 
Seems like an over-simplistic model assuming ethnicity is the most important variable when it's also been the heavy influence of college students in caucuses favoring Sanders.
It is a very simple model, to be sure, but it fits fairly tightly (r=.77) using only two historical demographic variables.

It may be that someone is running a better fit model that doesn't rely on constant updating via polling, but I've yet to see it.
 
It is a very simple model, to be sure, but it fits fairly tightly (r=.77) using only two historical demographic variables.

It may be that someone is running a better fit model that doesn't rely on constant updating via polling, but I've yet to see it.

Correlation is not causation. And the country is far from homogeneous. It might be a reasonable model if you started with a random sample of states. There was no control for caucuses vs primaries was there?

:)
 
No causation may be inferred without first observing a correlation. And there is no added value in a caucus variable, because caucus states have rather small Latino and Black populations.

CekvKi-XIAAoktB.jpg
 
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Looks like Clinton may have put her foot in it in the latest debate. Her refusal to release transcripts of her speeches to Wall Street corporations is possibly understandable, but the way she stonewalled on it looks suspicious. Announcing that she'd release them once the GOP released the transcripts of theirs is a ridiculous tactic, and further strengthens her image of being closer to the Republicans than to the true progressive arm of the Democrats. Do we need a Democratic party candidate who takes her lead from the Republican Party?

Further, some reportage indicates that the speeches may, indeed, be as damaging to her campaign as the Sanders campaign suggests: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/release-of-clintons-wall-street-speeches_b_9698632.html

At this point, it looks like the stonewalling is hurting her more than the release could; unless there is something truly groundbreakingly bad in the transcripts.
 

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