Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

[TheL8Elvis]

Do you accept there are non-wackadoodle theories about how Sanders will win? It's not like he has to cheat or do anything underhanded. He just has to win by pretty good margins. It's possible Hillary (or Bill) commits a serious gaffe, and Sanders wins the remaining states by comfortable margins. Or some Black Swan event (e.g., FBI recommendation to charge Clinton) tilts things towards Bernie. Or Bernie simply overperforms in the remaining states.

Yup, and like you, I find it unlikely. Not impossible, just unlikely.

I understand why he is staying in the race - to promote his agenda and push Clinton to the left, and I think that's fine as well. She could use some pushing that way.

 

[d4m10n]

It's not "cherry-picking" to point out that Sanders won the last 5 out of 6, and most of those were very lopsided victories, he's the odds-on favorite in the next contest, and Hillary's lead in the state where she was a Senator has dropped a lot. That's pretty much the definition of momentum: when you are winning consistently, your opponent is losing, and their support is shrinking.

The momentum has shifted repeatedly in the race: Bernie had it coming out of New Hampshire, then Hillary took it back with wins in the South, and now Bernie has it again.

This being a skeptic forum, it seems appropriate to ask whether political momentum is any more real than "hot hands" in basketball.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This being a skeptic forum, it seems appropriate to ask whether political momentum is any more real than "hot hands" in basketball.

There are some sheeple that don't really know which candidate they want who might be influenced, and if your candidate has no hope of winning, you may not bother to vote.

 

[Childlike Empress]

BTW - yes, I think Margot Kidder is famous enough you might have heard of her. Why is that odd ?

Maybe not objectively odd, but remarkable (that's why I remarked it). I

1. am not a citizen of the USA
2. use "Hollywood" almost as if it were an insult
3. don't even have a TV to watch the crap my own country comes up with

 

[Fudbucker]

This being a skeptic forum, it seems appropriate to ask whether political momentum is any more real than "hot hands" in basketball.

Good question. I would think yes, because it gets you in the news cycle in a positive way (people like a winner). If they didn't know a lot about you, at least now they've heard you've won a couple. With Bernie, a big part of people's objection to him are his perceived low chances of winning in the general election. If he posts a string of wins, it makes him look like a more plausible candidate.

Having watched hockey my whole life, I believe in momentum as a phenomenon for a team, and I think you can watch teams panic, fall apart, rally, surge, etc.

 

[Fudbucker]

Yup, and like you, I find it unlikely. Not impossible, just unlikely.

I understand why he is staying in the race - to promote his agenda and push Clinton to the left, and I think that's fine as well. She could use some pushing that way.

That's fair, and I think no one is more surprised by Bernie's success than Bernie himself. I think he did all this just to push Clinton further left, and then it took off and he just went with it. He certainly doesn't seem to dislike her, and he even goes out of his way to run a positive campaign and avoid anything that might damage Clinton in the general (like harping on her emails, which his supporters think he should do more of). I can't think of anything he's said about her that will end up in a GOP attack ad.

I don't see a problem with Bernie's supporters voting for Hillary in the general, if someone like Cruz or Trump is the nominee. They won't like having to do it, but the alternative to Hillary would be so much worse.

 

[varwoche]

I think Margot Kidder is famous enough you might have heard of her. Why is that odd ?

Not just an actress, but a mentally ill actress. This is a notably sketchy cite CE.

 

[Belz...]

Since you think attaching extra significance to the Iraq war vote is an example of "cherry picking", I'm not too impressed with how you use the term.

How about you look at all of the delegates Sanders has won in the race so far rather than just a few states? Would it be because this smaller sample suits you?

 

[TheL8Elvis]

Maybe not objectively odd, but remarkable (that's why I remarked it). I

1. am not a citizen of the USA
2. use "Hollywood" almost as if it were an insult
3. don't even have a TV to watch the crap my own country comes up with

1. It's USA politics
2. I would have to care a lot more to know 2&3

But now you know she's ******* crazy, and so is her CT.

You're welcome.

 

[Fudbucker]

How about you look at all of the delegates Sanders has won in the race so far rather than just a few states? Would it be because this smaller sample suits you?

He's a non-Democrat with over 900 pledged delegates in a Democratic primary. That doesn't exactly support the case that Hillary is a good candidate.

 

[Travis]

He's a non-Democrat with over 900 pledged delegates in a Democratic primary. That doesn't exactly support the case that Hillary is a good candidate.

I'm not sure that means anything. I like Hillary just fine. Think she'd be wonderful. But I like Bernie just a bit more on some, not all, issues. I completely disagree with him on trade agreements for one.

 

[AlaskaBushPilot]

To borrow some terms from MMA, styles make fights

Which is EXACTLY why Bernie beating Trump can be expected even if he loses to Hillary.

Odd that you would use this term and not know what it means.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Fine interview with the candidate at The Young Turks a couple of days ago:


Mostly about the (incredibly important topic of the) media. TYT seems to be one of the leading "alternatives" (video has almost 1.5 million views already). It really is a miracle that a guy like this even has a chance at being POTUS. Make it happen, folks. The Planet demands it.

 

[Belz...]

He's a non-Democrat with over 900 pledged delegates in a Democratic primary. That doesn't exactly support the case that Hillary is a good candidate.

He's running as a Democrat. What are you talking about? You didn't even answer my question.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Which is EXACTLY why Bernie beating Trump can be expected even if he loses to Hillary.

Odd that you would use this term and not know what it means.

That was the whole point of that comment!!! That is why there is a "but" immediately after that in the quote you left off. Of course Bernie probably does better. But he doesn't get that opportunity because he is losing now.

 

[wareyin]

It's not "cherry-picking" to point out that Sanders won the last 5 out of 6, and most of those were very lopsided victories, he's the odds-on favorite in the next contest, and Hillary's lead in the state where she was a Senator has dropped a lot. That's pretty much the definition of momentum: when you are winning consistently, your opponent is losing, and their support is shrinking.

The momentum has shifted repeatedly in the race: Bernie had it coming out of New Hampshire, then Hillary took it back with wins in the South, and now Bernie has it again.

It's clearly cherry picking to only pick the last 6 races in states with small delegate counts to talk about.

Except for all the polling about how untrustworthy and unlikeable Hillary is. Do you guys even follow politics?

"In a brand new Washington Post-ABC News national poll, just 37 percent of people believe Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy while 57 percent say they don't think she is."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bers-are-lower-than-ever-it-might-not-matter/
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton register net negative ratings in double digits, indicating the front-runners for each party's presidential nominations are viewed negatively at historic levels, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll.

That makes Trump and Clinton viewed more unfavorably than any front-runner for either party since 1984, when CBS began polling voters on the question.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

I don't get some of you Hillary supporters. Presumably you pay attention to politics. The evidence could not be any clearer: people don't like Hillary and don't trust her. It's not some Sander's conspiracy. Poll after poll shows the same result.

People don't like her or trust her, which is why they keep voting for her? Also why they respond in polling that they will vote for her over every other likely candidates? But yes, the constant complaint is that Clinton is dishonest, without any evidence of dishonesty, and in spite of fact checking organizations pointing out that Clinton is the most honest candidate. Congratulations for falling for the GOP smear machine.

Sanders is clearly the better candidate. For Sanders to be where he is now, with what he started with, is incredible. He's not even a Democrat and Hillary has what? A 15% lead in pledged delegates? How does a non-Democrat, in April, have a chance of beating a Democrat in the Democratic primaries? How does a non-Democrat beat a Democrat by outrageous margins in any state? Either the non-Democrat is really really good (and should be the nominee) or the Democrat is really really bad (and shouldn't be the nominee).

We KNOW Hillary is a terrible candidate. It's not like 2008 didn't happen. That was hers to win and she lost it. And here we are in 2012, and she's in a dogfight with yet another unknown Senator.

But apart from all that, she's fantastic.

Losing, and let's be honest, losing badly does not make Sanders the better candidate. Obama was the better candidate in 2008, and at this point he was only ahead 156 delegates. Clinton is ahead by over 700, and you keep claiming that she is barely beating him because he's won 5 of the last 6 contests with a combined win of delegates that will be wiped out by Clinton's win in the singular contest in NY.

 

[Fudbucker]

He's running as a Democrat. What are you talking about? You didn't even answer my question.

No he's not. Bernie is not a member of the Democratic party, hence the thread:
Did Sanders benefit from the structure of the Democratic Party without paying in?

Sanders sometimes refers to himself as a Democrat, Independent, and Democratic Socialist, but he's a registered independent, so yes, a non-Democrat has almost a thousand pledged delegates in the Democratic primary.

Has that ever even happened before?

 

[Belz...]

No he's not. Bernie is not a member of the Democratic party, hence the thread:
Did Sanders benefit from the structure of the Democratic Party without paying in?

Sanders sometimes refers to himself as a Democrat, Independent, and Democratic Socialist, but he's a registered independent, so yes, a non-Democrat has almost a thousand pledged delegates in the Democratic primary.

Has that ever even happened before?

He is running in the Democratic Party primaries. How the **** would you call that? He's not an independant at this point in time.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

And the hypocritical Sanders pulls a Ron Paul in NV in the Clark County Convention.

I wouldn't count on it sticking: Bernie Sanders Supporters Are Trying To Pull A Ron Paul Move

It didn't work for Ron Paul, the RNC threw the delegates out.

These maneuvers closely resemble the actions of Ron Paul supporters in 2008 and 2012 during the Republican nomination process. In Nevada in 2008, Paul’s backers “hijacked” the state GOP’s convention in an attempt to elect delegates that supported him to the national convention. Four years later, Paul fans used the same tactics in a number of states....
“Ron Paul got almost no percentage of the vote in the state of Oklahoma, very low, low, low percentage. But through legal maneuvering at our county elections, Ron Paul delegates were able to come in and to get their candidate in in the congressional districts....
After seeing Paul backers try this trick a couple times, the Republican National Convention Committee in 2012 wised up and changed the rules to make it impossible for “supporters of one presidential candidate to override the will of voters at a state convention,” according to BuzzFeed.

You can bet the DNC is not going to put up with this kind of crap either.

The sad part about this is Sanders whining about the superdelegates which have never overridden the majority candidate while accepting a minority of his followers strong-arming a convention.

It's not going to change the outcome of the primary but it does make Sanders supporters look like the fanatics that followed Ron Paul around for years.


This might be something that Clinton can use to make Sanders look like a cheater, IOW it might just backfire.

 

[luchog]

Those are not attacks that were based on how Obama described himself and they were false charges.

Since when has the truth or falseness of charges ever mattered? Aren't you the one complaining about how many people believe things about Clinton that aren't true?

That makes little sense. Are you saying that Sanders is an even more terrible candidate?

Clinton is a terrible candidate, Sanders is a good one. The problem that you're ignoring is that Clinton has the establishment Democratic party political machine supporting her, and a whole lot of very rich people contributing to her campaign. Sanders, by contrast, only has a grass-roots public support keeping his campaign going, with nearly the entirety of the establishment against him; and he's still threatening to upset her chances at the nomination.

If Sanders and Clinton were on an equal footing with regard to fundraising and party support, this contest would already be over, and Sanders would have won it.

And yet when rubber meets the road, Sanders is losing to Clinton. To borrow some terms from MMA, styles make fights, but what matters s who did you beat, and how did you beat them.

Except that he's not losing quite as much as it might seem. In fact, after I'm really surprised no one has posted this yet, it seems that Clinton did not win Nevada after all:

Bernie Sanders Wins the Nevada Caucus After All

Can't wait to hear the spin on this one.