MRC_Hans
Penultimate Amazing
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Proof of Immortality II
- Thread starter Slowvehicle
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Slowvehicle
Membership Drive , Co-Ordinator,, Russell's Antin
My Dear Mr. Savage:
What of this, if any, has the slightest to do with you advancing your claim that the "soul" exists, and is "immortal"?
I remain expectantly yours (as I have for many years, in this and your other threads), &ct.
It's almost as if Jabba hasn't read the previous 10,000 posts.
Jabba
Philosopher
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- And then,
11.2. Re P(H) and P(~H):
11.2.1. I’ll be generous and accept that the prior probability of H is 99%
11.2.2. Which means that I accept that the prior probability of ~H is 1%.
11.2.3. I do think that this is overly generous to H. But then, it hardly matters…
11.2. Re P(H) and P(~H):
11.2.1. I’ll be generous and accept that the prior probability of H is 99%
11.2.2. Which means that I accept that the prior probability of ~H is 1%.
11.2.3. I do think that this is overly generous to H. But then, it hardly matters…
Argument from incredulity. Still no more valid than the first time you tried it.
Mojo
Mostly harmless
Jabba, while your existence may be unlikely given "the consensus hypothesis", it is entirely consistent with it.
Remember: if A is unlikely given B it does not follow that B is unlikely given A.
And, once again, your existence is no less likely than the existence of any other potential person; someone had to get lucky. You are not special. Your argument relies on your existence being a predetermined target. It isn't.
We've been through all this before. You are still wrong.
Given that the previous conclusion was that you were utterly wrong, I can see why you would want to believe this, but given that you are using essentially the same arguments again it is highly probable that you are wrong about this as well.
Remember: if A is unlikely given B it does not follow that B is unlikely given A.
And, once again, your existence is no less likely than the existence of any other potential person; someone had to get lucky. You are not special. Your argument relies on your existence being a predetermined target. It isn't.
We've been through all this before. You are still wrong.
Given that the previous conclusion was that you were utterly wrong, I can see why you would want to believe this, but given that you are using essentially the same arguments again it is highly probable that you are wrong about this as well.
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Jabba
Philosopher
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- And then,
11.3. Re P(E|~H):
11.3.1. The probability (“likelihood”) of E given ~H, involves several specific hypothetical possibilities.
11.3.1.1. That only some of us have but one finite life.
11.3.1.2. That we each have numerous finite lives.
11.3.1.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives.
11.3.1.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives.
11.3.1.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives.
11.3.1.6. That we each have an infinite life.
11.3.1.7. That only some of us have an infinite life.
11.3.1.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained).
11.3.1.9. Some other explanation.
11.3.2. Now I must estimate (roughly) the prior probability (rounded off to three decimal places) of each more specific possibility (hypothesis), given ~H.
11.3.2.1. That only some of us have but one finite life: .000
11.3.2.2. That we each have numerous finite lives: .002.
11.3.2.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives: .000.
11.3.2.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives; .002
11.3.2.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives: 000.
11.3.2.6. That we each have an infinite life: .002
11.3.2.7. That only some of us have an infinite life: .000
11.3.2.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained): .002
11.3.2.9. Some other explanation: .002
11.3. Re P(E|~H):
11.3.1. The probability (“likelihood”) of E given ~H, involves several specific hypothetical possibilities.
11.3.1.1. That only some of us have but one finite life.
11.3.1.2. That we each have numerous finite lives.
11.3.1.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives.
11.3.1.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives.
11.3.1.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives.
11.3.1.6. That we each have an infinite life.
11.3.1.7. That only some of us have an infinite life.
11.3.1.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained).
11.3.1.9. Some other explanation.
11.3.2. Now I must estimate (roughly) the prior probability (rounded off to three decimal places) of each more specific possibility (hypothesis), given ~H.
11.3.2.1. That only some of us have but one finite life: .000
11.3.2.2. That we each have numerous finite lives: .002.
11.3.2.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives: .000.
11.3.2.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives; .002
11.3.2.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives: 000.
11.3.2.6. That we each have an infinite life: .002
11.3.2.7. That only some of us have an infinite life: .000
11.3.2.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained): .002
11.3.2.9. Some other explanation: .002
Mojo
Mostly harmless
Jabba,
- Do you have any evidence that consciousness can exist without a functioning brain?
- Do you have any evidence that consciousness can exist without a functioning brain?
Slowvehicle
Membership Drive , Co-Ordinator,, Russell's Antin
My Dear Mr. Savage:
...in what way do you suppose your pulled-out-of-thin-air assertions, tailored to support your conclusions, address your implication that the "soul" exists, and is "immortal"?
I remain indefatigably yours, & ct.
Lucian
Illuminator
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You know, forcing stream of consciousness into a numbered list doesn't actually make it organized. Or maybe Finnegans Wake would actually make sense if Joyce had just added some numbers. (I really like 11.1.6 and 11.1.8 though.)
abaddon
Penultimate Amazing
See Jabba, your four grandparents must have had 8 of their own parents, right? And they, in turn must had 16 parents of their own. Who in turn must have had 32 parents of theirs. It turns out that you alone must have had several trillion of ancestors even if we stop at the Roman period. That's more humans than have ever existed. And that's just for you alone, not to mention everyone else.
Sloppy, sloppy thinking.
That just makes your problem worse.
What about it?
They don't matter.
Evidence?
And?
Nope. Just a large number but not infinite.
Nope. No "Wow".
What about it?
100% You are here.
There's no evidence that it is.
ComfySlippers
Banned
They all come out to play at Easter.
"Must.... believe. ... Must..... Believe."
"Must.... believe. ... Must..... Believe."
Jabba
Philosopher
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- 5,613
11.3.3. And now, I must estimate the likelihood of my own current existence given the different specific hypotheses under ~Hs.
11.3.3.1. That only some of us have but one finite life: .10.
11.3.3.2. That we each have numerous finite lives: .10.
11.3.3.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives: .25.
11.3.3.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives; 1.00
11.3.3.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives: .50.
11.3.3.6. That we each have an infinite life: 1.00
11.3.3.7. That only some of us have an infinite life: .50
11.3.3.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained): .50
11.3.3.9. Some other explanation: .50
11.3.4. And now, I must multiply each of the probabilities of ~H above by the likelihoods of my current existence, given each specific hypothesis, and add up their products. And, the total likelihood of my current existence given ~H:
11.3.4.1. P(E|~H) = (0*.5) + (.002*.10) + (0*.25) + (.002*1.0) + (0*.5) + (1*..002) + (0*.5) + (.002*.5) + (.002*.5), or
11.3.4.2. P(E|~H) = 0 + .0002 + 0 +.002 + 0 + .002 + 0 + .001 + .001, or
11.3.4.3. P(E|~H) = .0052. And,
11.3.5. P(H|E) = 0*.99/(0*.99 + .0052*.01) = (0/.000052) = 0.
11.3.6. P(H|E) = 0.
11.3.7. IOW, given my current existence, the posterior probability that I will have one, finite life is zero…
12. But, what if the probability of H is just extremely small – it isn’t really zero?
12.1. Someone will eventually win the lottery, however improbable, and however long it takes.
12.2. Maybe, I’m just extremely lucky to exist right now.
12.3. But, then again, if there is a reasonable possibility that it isn’t just luck (by a long shot!), that possibility wins since H is now an unreasonable possibility.
12.4. And then, what if I never existed?
12.5. What if you never existed…
11.3.3.1. That only some of us have but one finite life: .10.
11.3.3.2. That we each have numerous finite lives: .10.
11.3.3.3. That only some of us have numerous finite lives: .25.
11.3.3.4. That we each have an infinity of finite lives; 1.00
11.3.3.5. That only some of us have an infinity of finite lives: .50.
11.3.3.6. That we each have an infinite life: 1.00
11.3.3.7. That only some of us have an infinite life: .50
11.3.3.8. That time isn’t what we think it is (to be explained): .50
11.3.3.9. Some other explanation: .50
11.3.4. And now, I must multiply each of the probabilities of ~H above by the likelihoods of my current existence, given each specific hypothesis, and add up their products. And, the total likelihood of my current existence given ~H:
11.3.4.1. P(E|~H) = (0*.5) + (.002*.10) + (0*.25) + (.002*1.0) + (0*.5) + (1*..002) + (0*.5) + (.002*.5) + (.002*.5), or
11.3.4.2. P(E|~H) = 0 + .0002 + 0 +.002 + 0 + .002 + 0 + .001 + .001, or
11.3.4.3. P(E|~H) = .0052. And,
11.3.5. P(H|E) = 0*.99/(0*.99 + .0052*.01) = (0/.000052) = 0.
11.3.6. P(H|E) = 0.
11.3.7. IOW, given my current existence, the posterior probability that I will have one, finite life is zero…
12. But, what if the probability of H is just extremely small – it isn’t really zero?
12.1. Someone will eventually win the lottery, however improbable, and however long it takes.
12.2. Maybe, I’m just extremely lucky to exist right now.
12.3. But, then again, if there is a reasonable possibility that it isn’t just luck (by a long shot!), that possibility wins since H is now an unreasonable possibility.
12.4. And then, what if I never existed?
12.5. What if you never existed…
Made up numbers in, made up numbers out.
We are here right now. In 100 years or thereabouts, we'll all be dead and other people will be marvelling at the way that they in turn won the lottery of life.
Nothing you have written, Jabba, supports the idea of immortality.
We are here right now. In 100 years or thereabouts, we'll all be dead and other people will be marvelling at the way that they in turn won the lottery of life.
Nothing you have written, Jabba, supports the idea of immortality.
abaddon
Penultimate Amazing
Then you wouldn't have wasted 4 years of everyone else's time with this nonsense.
jsfisher
ETcorngods survivor
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- 24,532
Jabba,
--You were going to visit a near-by college professor.
--Did you?
--One of many problems you have had in all the prior iterations of this line of reasoning was your failure to ever formulate a precise version of "H".
--You still have the problem.
--You were going to visit a near-by college professor.
--Did you?
--One of many problems you have had in all the prior iterations of this line of reasoning was your failure to ever formulate a precise version of "H".
--You still have the problem.
That's really what this is about isn't? The inability to conceive of a world without you. Fear of death and fear of even the concept of non-existence.
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