Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread

[Manopolus]

Are you still confused that a precinct delegate vote is not a popular vote?

I was never confused about that to begin with. The discussion I thought we were having was whether the map I was watching showed popular votes or precinct delegates -- or whether it was even possible for it to show the popular vote.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

If you'd stop trying to make the world fit into your world view, Manopolus:

Popular vote becomes precinct delegates.

Those precincts are not the collective precincts you are seeing in the % precincts counted. Don't ask me why but they use confusing terminology.

Precinct delegates become fewer delegates than we elect at the base precinct level. I was a precinct captain today but we had 2 delegates. That is not the precinct you see on the delegate map.

Then those delegates get winnowed down at the county and finally the state sends 118 delegates to the national convention.

I think where you might be confused is that there is more than one level of precinct.

 

[luchog]

This is looking seriously bad for Hillary.

It certainly does if these numbers hold for the majority of the remaining states.

NY is where it's going to come down to. If Bernie can keep up the big wins in a large majority of the smaller states, as he seems to be doing, pick up smaller wins in CA and PA, then all he needs to do in NY is at least come close to tying Hillary to end up with an overall win.

 

[Manopolus]

If you'd stop trying to make the world fit into your world view, Manopolus:

Popular vote becomes precinct delegates.

Those precincts are not the collective precincts you are seeing in the % precincts counted. Don't ask me why but they use confusing terminology.

Precinct delegates become fewer delegates than we elect at the base precinct level. I was a precinct captain today but we had 2 delegates. That is not the precinct you see on the delegate map.

Then those delegates get winnowed down at the county and finally the state sends 118 delegates to the national convention.

Yeah, I had a vague idea of how that works already. I have no argument with any of this.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is looking seriously bad for Hillary.

How so?

 

[Ammonitida]

How so?

These are landslide victories. Not just 60-40. Bernie just cut into Hillary's lead significantly. It's back to just over 200 again, and it doesn't look good for the rest of the states. Wisconsin could be another 70 or so delegates for Bernie. California and New York appear to be her only hopes now, but recent polling in California is only 50-50. A comeback like this ridiculous.

 

[Ammonitida]

It certainly does if these numbers hold for the majority of the remaining states.

NY is where it's going to come down to. If Bernie can keep up the big wins in a large majority of the smaller states, as he seems to be doing, pick up smaller wins in CA and PA, then all he needs to do in NY is at least come close to tying Hillary to end up with an overall win.

Hillary needs to step up her game. Make more public appearances, hold more rallies or something. Especially in New York and California. To blow a lead of 300 delegates like this would be utterly embarrassing.

 

[Fudbucker]

So very rough numbers assuming Sanders will get the same percentage of superdelegates as pledged:

75% of 118 (WA) = 89-Sanders; 29-Clinton
80% of 20 (AK) = 16-Sanders; 4-Clinton
And taking a wild guess at HI's 35 delegates using AK's percentages = 28-Sanders; 7-Clinton

Total: 113-Sanders; 40-Clinton gives Sanders a net gain of 73

He is currently behind 294 in pledged delegates and even though I added in pledged and superdelegates giving Sanders the benefit of his actual vote count, he remains more than 200 pledged delegates behind.

The rest of the map doesn't favor Hillary like the early states did. Sanders getting a lead in pledged delegates is a real possibility. If that happens, superdelegates won't matter. If the DNC takes the win away from Sanders, many people like myself will never vote Democrat again.

But the odds are still pretty long. It will most likely end up being Hillary. I think Sanders started all this with the goal of simply pushing Hillary further to the left. Going to the convention with 1000+ delegates (even if he doesn't get the nomination) must seem like a dream come true. Hillary's got to throw some meat to those people, if she wants the convention to go smoothly. Something like a promise to break up big banks, strengthen Dodd-Frank, govt. bailout of student-loans, etc.

 

[Manopolus]

Hillary needs to step up her game. Make more public appearances, hold more rallies or something. Especially in New York and California. To blow a lead of 300 delegates like this would be utterly embarrassing.

She's already blown that lead -- it's just a matter of whether it will catch up to her. Her "lead" mostly consists of early voting. The same-day vote has been largely in Sanders' favor everywhere but The South.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-...-primary-race-ill-prove-to-you_b_9528076.html

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

These are landslide victories. Not just 60-40. Bernie just cut into Hillary's lead significantly. It's back to just over 200 again, and it doesn't look good for the rest of the states. Wisconsin could be another 70 or so delegates for Bernie. California and New York appear to be her only hopes now, but recent polling in California is only 50-50. A comeback like this ridiculous.

Ummm, no. He cut a lead of 300 to 200 roughly. That's not going to get him NY, NJ and PA and there's nothing suggesting he'll get more than half of CA.

So where is he going to make up those 200 delegates?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Hillary needs to step up her game. Make more public appearances, hold more rallies or something. Especially in New York and California. To blow a lead of 300 delegates like this would be utterly embarrassing.

Are you confused about how one attacks this strategically? You don't expect to do well in Progressive caucus states, you aim your resources at Primary states.

 

[wareyin]

Ummm, no. He cut a lead of 300 to 200 roughly. That's not going to get him NY, NJ and PA and there's nothing suggesting he'll get more than half of CA.

So where is he going to make up those 200 delegates?

The Sanders supporters don't realize that Clinton needed fewer than 700 delegates coming into today, and no Democratic primaries are winner take all. "Winning big" in states with only 16 delegates doesn't really help.

 

[Manopolus]

Whoops, math is off:

So very rough numbers assuming Sanders will get the same percentage of superdelegates as pledged:

75% of 118 (WA) = 89-Sanders; 29-Clinton
80% of 20 (AK) = 16-Sanders; 4-Clinton
And taking a wild guess at HI's 35 delegates using AK's percentages = 28-Sanders; 7-Clinton

Corrected: Total: 133-Sanders; 40-Clinton gives Sanders a net gain of 93

He is currently behind 294 in pledged delegates and even though I added in pledged and superdelegates giving Sanders the benefit of his actual vote count, he remains more than 200 pledged delegates behind.

King County keeps dragging down the average every time a new precinct reports, so it could be as low as 70% in Washington before it's done. It's still a good victory though. Even King County is sitting at slightly less than 65% currently though. They're still not quite halfway through. Technically, it could still push it substantially either way. A higher turnout means late reporting, and I'm still convinced that an unusually high turnout favors Bernie way more than average.

Currently, I'm showing only 71.8% for Washington.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The rest of the map doesn't favor Hillary like the early states did. Sanders getting a lead in pledged delegates is a real possibility. If that happens, superdelegates won't matter. If the DNC takes the win away from Sanders, many people like myself will never vote Democrat again.

But the odds are still pretty long. It will most likely end up being Hillary. I think Sanders started all this with the goal of simply pushing Hillary further to the left. Going to the convention with 1000+ delegates (even if he doesn't get the nomination) must seem like a dream come true. Hillary's got to throw some meat to those people, if she wants the convention to go smoothly. Something like a promise to break up big banks, strengthen Dodd-Frank, govt. bailout of student-loans, etc.

Just looking at March polls:

NY- Clinton ahead by 48
PA- Clinton ahead by 27
WI- Clinton ahead by 7
CA- Clinton ahead by 7

So where is Sanders going to get 75-80%?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

King County keeps dragging down the average every time a new precinct reports, so it could be as low as 70% in Washington before it's done. It's still a good victory though. Even King County is sitting at slightly less than 65% currently though. They're still not quite halfway through though.

I'm actually surprised because I would have thought Pierce and Snohomish had more Boeing workers than Seattle and the Machinists Union supported Clinton.

 

[Manopolus]

Just looking at March polls:

NY- Clinton ahead by 48
PA- Clinton ahead by 27
WI- Clinton ahead by 7
CA- Clinton ahead by 7

So where is Sanders going to get 75-80%?

Wisconsin's latest poll is again Emmerson College -- pretty much the same damn problem with the NY poll that shows her ahead by an unbelievable margin. They haven't had a single poll do anything but lean towards Hillary to the extreme yet. The reason is obvious -- they reject any response from people that didn't vote in 2012. They don't even take a percentage -- they throw them out entirely.

I'm confident that Wisconsin in particular will go for Bernie, but I won't know the margin until it happens.

Beyond that, I'll need to see the actual NY result before I make any predictions. I'm quite sure that Emmerson is so far off that it'll open some eyes, but I won't predict that he'll win. He might actually quit after NY if it's that horrible, but I don't think it will be. I would predict something more like the result in Massachusetts.

 

[Fudbucker]

Just looking at March polls:

NY- Clinton ahead by 48
PA- Clinton ahead by 27
WI- Clinton ahead by 7
CA- Clinton ahead by 7

So where is Sanders going to get 75-80%?

Bernie has momentum after winning the last five straight (assuming Hawaii). That has a way of changing things.

I agree that the odds are against him. But stranger things have happened. If the FBI recommends charges be filed against Hillary, it would be devastating to her campaign.

 

[Childlike Empress]

So where is he going to make up those 200 delegates?

Only the Birdies know.

 

[Manopolus]

Only the Birdies know.

This video contains content from UMG, who has blocked it in your country on copyright grounds.

Weird, considering that it's Bob Marley.

 

[Ammonitida]

Bernie has momentum after winning the last five straight (assuming Hawaii). That has a way of changing things.

I agree that the odds are against him. But stranger things have happened. If the FBI recommends charges be filed against Hillary, it would be devastating to her campaign.

After Hillary had the "momentum" of winning six straight. I don't think "momentum" is playing any role, just racial demographics.