Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread

[Childlike Empress]

Gotta love teh internetz.

 

[wareyin]

As said many times, I'm not the one making predictions with regard to the totality of the race. I think I've made that quite clear. Nowhere have I said that Sanders will absolutely win. I have merely refused to take it off the list of possible outcomes (and rightly so -- empirically).

I have been sufficiently convinced enough that he will win this Saturday, but that's about it. One week at a time. Even that didn't rely much on polling, although I did go ahead and include polling in ONE POST regarding that element. Is it possible for Hillary to win in the states that caucus Saturday? Of course it is. However, it doesn't seem likely.

If you want to go further ahead than that, you sort of have to take into account factors which have not yet happened, among other things. Do you know what the news will report tomorrow? I don't. I have even less of a clue what it will be in two weeks.


When will you realize that strawmanning me into your position -- but on the opposite candidate -- won't work? The difference in our arguments go way beyond which candidate we are behind. You're projecting.

My position is that by the current delegate counts alone, it would be very difficult for Sanders to win. Adding in the polls, and not just the ones that tell me what I want to hear, it is virtually impossible for Sanders to win.

You have been projecting hero worship, or religious fervor on me, when it is obvious that a Sanders supporter clinging to the possibility that Sanders could win is the real religious position. Your hero worship of Sanders is blinding you to the obvious fact that he needs 68% of the remaining delegates to win, while he has only been able to get 42% or so. Pretending that the polls aren't a reliable indicator of the public's feelings for Sanders, despite the fact that they have been far more reliable than your method of wishful thinking is not convincing anyone who doesn't already worship at the Church of Bernie.

 

[Manopolus]

My position is that by the current delegate counts alone, it would be very difficult for Sanders to win. Adding in the polls, and not just the ones that tell me what I want to hear, it is virtually impossible for Sanders to win.

You have been projecting hero worship, or religious fervor on me, when it is obvious that a Sanders supporter clinging to the possibility that Sanders could win is the real religious position. Your hero worship of Sanders is blinding you to the obvious fact that he needs 68% of the remaining delegates to win, while he has only been able to get 42% or so. Pretending that the polls aren't a reliable indicator of the public's feelings for Sanders, despite the fact that they have been far more reliable than your method of wishful thinking is not convincing anyone who doesn't already worship at the Church of Bernie.

As I said before, quit counting superdelegates. A compiled superdelegate vote that overturns the popular vote will be an absolute disaster, and they know it. That's why well over half of them haven't given an opinion yet. They don't count in any meaningful way. If you want to put a percentage out there, ignore superdelegates, because, quite frankly, that is more representative of the situation we are actually in.

Superdelegates making endorsements is just a way for uncommitted politicians to try to influence elections before the vote is actually counted. Those don't count until the actual convention, and were vastly changed in the 2008 election in case you hadn't noticed.

 

[wareyin]

As I said before, quit counting superdelegates. A compiled superdelegate vote that overturns the popular vote will be an absolute disaster, and they know it. That's why well over half of them haven't given an opinion yet.

As I said before, the popular vote is also heavily against Sanders, with a difference of over 2.5 million more in favor of Clinton. Stop pretending that the popular vote favors Sanders. The supers that have endorsed Clinton will count as much as every other delegate.

 

[cullennz]

Do superdelegates get to wear a special hat?

 

[Maya22]

Do superdelegates get to wear a special hat?

I don't know about that, however some of them wear capes and/or masks.

 

[Manopolus]

As I said before, the popular vote is also heavily against Sanders, with a difference of over 2.5 million more in favor of Clinton. Stop pretending that the popular vote favors Sanders. The supers that have endorsed Clinton will count as much as every other delegate.

Yes, that is the case currently. However, that doesn't change the fact that counting superdelegates at this point is completely inappropriate. I said one thing, and you bring something entirely unrelated into the conversation -- sorry, but that doesn't make a coherent argument. Nothing you said here contradicted anything I said in the post you quoted.

(well, except for the last sentence, which is left entirely unsupported by the other comments)


...so can I assume that you concede the point and are just arguing for the sake of argument?

 

[wareyin]

Yes, that is the case currently. However, that doesn't change the fact that counting superdelegates at this point is completely inappropriate. I said one thing, and you bring something entirely unrelated into the conversation -- sorry, but that doesn't make a coherent argument.

You insist that they won't go against the popular vote, yet the popular vote is for Clinton. You insist that supers going against the popular vote would destroy the Dem party, yet a vote for Sanders would be against the popular vote. Stop dishonestly claiming that their vote for Clinton won't count, or that we can't count it.

 

[Manopolus]

You insist that they won't go against the popular vote, yet the popular vote is for Clinton. You insist that supers going against the popular vote would destroy the Dem party, yet a vote for Sanders would be against the popular vote. Stop dishonestly claiming that their vote for Clinton won't count, or that we can't count it.

Well, duh... the problem here is that the election isn't over yet. Apparently, you haven't managed to realize that yet. When I say that superdelegates don't matter at this point because they won't vote against the electorate, it is to be assumed that I mean that IF a different result is achieved prior to their actual vote, they very well may vote differently.

Less than half of the actual population has had a chance to vote -- quite a bit less than half by population.

 

[wareyin]

Well, duh... the problem here is that the election isn't over yet. Apparently, you haven't managed to realize that yet.

Because the election isn't over yet, super delegate votes won't count?

And sadly, for Sanders the election may as well be over. Handwaving away the polls, and the delegates that show this really aren't helping him.

 

[Manopolus]

Because the election isn't over yet, super delegate votes won't count?

And sadly, for Sanders the election may as well be over. Handwaving away the polls, and the delegates that show this really aren't helping him.

They'll count, but they don't count NOW. They're counted at the convention. Nothing they say is official in any way until the convention. They are free to change their vote from what they have said (unofficially!) at the convention. Their votes aren't even cast yet per se.

I'm having a really hard time believing that you are actually confused about what I'm saying here.

It's sort of like if you were to do a representative opinion poll and call it good enough to decide the election. There are no actual votes that have been cast with regards to superdelegates in any way that counts.

 

[wareyin]

They'll count, but they don't count NOW. They're counted at the convention.

I'm having a really hard time believing that you are actually confused about what I'm saying here.

Yes, all of the delegates' votes will count at the convention, both super and pledged. None have actually voted, yet. However we know from the pledging which way those delegates are supposed to vote, and we know from the endorsing which way the supers who have decided will vote.

This changes nothing, nor does it mean that we can't count the supers who have already decided. Yes, they may change their minds, but as you say, a vote against the popular vote (a vote for Sanders in other words) would tear apart the party. This tells me that they are probably going to keep their words.

 

[Manopolus]

Yes, all of the delegates' votes will count at the convention, both super and pledged. None have actually voted, yet. However we know from the pledging which way those delegates are supposed to vote, and we know from the endorsing which way the supers who have decided will vote.

This changes nothing, nor does it mean that we can't count the supers who have already decided. Yes, they may change their minds, but as you say, a vote against the popular vote (a vote for Sanders in other words) would tear apart the party. This tells me that they are probably going to keep their words.

Quit playing dumb. I know better. There is no way you could construct something this twisted unless you have some degree of intelligence. I don't usually do the "ignore" list, but in this case I'm considering it.

 

[wareyin]

Quit playing dumb. I know better. There is no way you could construct something this twisted unless you have some degree of intelligence.

This is reality, my friend. No one has voted yet, not the pledged delegates, not the supers. When they all cast their votes, each vote will have the same weight. We know how the pledged delegates are supposed to vote, we know how the supers who have endorsed a candidate will vote. You want to dishonestly ignore the supers so that Sanders "only" has to win 58% of the remaining delegates, but that doesn't mean anyone else should.

 

[AlaskaBushPilot]

We are not electing a King.

The one power a president has is to get us into a war overnight and then demand we support the troops after it has already started.

He has hundreds of billions at his disposal when just one bomb can start a war. So this is a very important power to consider, more important than his power over the entire budget.

Bernie can't create a new health care system without a congress to write the law. Same with whatever new hippie programs he wants. He does not have the power to raise funds. He has the power to effectively blackmail us into finishing wars he starts.

Congress has abdicated its authority over wars. So you don't want presidents eager to make wars, and especially not on behalf of people putting millions of dollars into the pocket of the president. We can be pretty confident Hillary is going to do the same thing as president as she did while secretary of state.

Bernie is going to be the hippie president. He might get some of his spending ideas through, will suggest eliminating nuclear, coal, oil, and even natural gas. We'll all ride bicycles and heat our homes with solar. lol. None of that will happen because congress will block him.

 

[Manopolus]

We are not electing a King.

The one power a president has is to get us into a war overnight and then demand we support the troops after it has already started.

He has hundreds of billions at his disposal when just one bomb can start a war. So this is a very important power to consider, more important than his power over the entire budget.

Bernie can't create a new health care system without a congress to write the law. Same with whatever new hippie programs he wants. He does not have the power to raise funds. He has the power to effectively blackmail us into finishing wars he starts.

Congress has abdicated its authority over wars. So you don't want presidents eager to make wars, and especially not on behalf of people putting millions of dollars into the pocket of the president. We can be pretty confident Hillary is going to do the same thing as president as she did while secretary of state.

Bernie is going to be the hippie president. He might get some of his spending ideas through, will suggest eliminating nuclear, coal, oil, and even natural gas. We'll all ride bicycles and heat our homes with solar. lol. None of that will happen because congress will block him.

That's true of any candidate, yet (surprisingly!?) every one of them tells us what they would like to accomplish in every single election. I'm not sure what your point is?

 

[AlaskaBushPilot]

Sure you are. You aren't that stupid.

 

[Axiom_Blade]

Bernie is going to be the hippie president. He might get some of his spending ideas through, will suggest eliminating nuclear, coal, oil, and even natural gas. We'll all ride bicycles and heat our homes with solar. lol. None of that will happen because congress will block him.

Congress depends on votes, too. If our elected representatives don't want to play ball, we can elect new ones.

 

[Manopolus]

Sure you are. You aren't that stupid.

Meh. Point taken. I had to re-read to really get it. I'll try to pull myself out of flame mode.

 

[theprestige]

I don't think you'll be alone. The way that The Republican Party is being torn apart by Trump and Cruz lately, there will likely be some that decide to vote for "anybody but Clinton" in the Democratic primary, rather than bothering to vote in the Republican primary at some point. The antics lately don't recommend either of the top Republican candidates. It may seem weird, but I think Republicans hate Clinton worse than socialism.

For me, the calculus is simple: Hillary Clinton is a corrupt insider. I trust the American institutions of government to moderate the extremes of Bernie Sanders, a lot more than I trust them to safeguard us from the corruption of Hillary Clinton.