Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Do you really want me to count the mentions of Clinton vs Sanders in mainstream press outlets? I could probably just do a damn word count of how many times their name is mentioned and prove what I said there. It's completely obvious to anyone that has been actually paying attention.

Yes. But, as you know, you'll first have to define "mainstream media outlets" and gain consensus on your definition. Otherwise, your counts will be meaningless.

...and I clearly said that it wasn't a conspiracy.

Keep in mind that the 9/11 & JFK conspiritards also don't think their little "theories" are conspiracies either.

It's mechanics.

I don't know about "mechanics", but it's something alright!!!

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

What exactly were the odds of this proposed bet and can I do it instead?

There was no proposed bet, else I would have taken it.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Bernie's last real chance was to capitalize on "The Michigan Miracle". Instead he got swept by Hilary last Tuesday.particulary with a bad blowout in Ohio..a swing state in November.
The Michigan Miracle turned out to be a blip,a fluke rather then a harbringer.
Time to face reality Berniacs: Barring some catasropher, it's over.

Wrong. Bernie will turn things around in the west.<sup>***


***</sup>Assuming Arizona is no longer considered part of the west.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I don't get why anyone takes anything he says terribly seriously, it's so obviously nothing more than trolling.

Laughing at the Berntards isn't "trolling". It's laughing.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Afraid that ship has sailed

It was near the beginning of the campaign before Sanders showed signs of being a real contender. The way TCS phrased it he basically offered Sanders supports $150 if Sanders won, but he'd get $150 if Sanders lost. Obviously this was massively in his favor, not just because of Clinton name recognition, or media presence, or polling, but also because TCS didn't even have to pick a winner. It was just Sanders loses he wins. But maybe it shouldn't matter if the Sanders supporter believes absolutely that Sanders will win?


As far as my counter bet I can't recall the exact number but the online gambling odds at the time were 100+:1 in favor of Clinton. I said he had to pick his candidate, whoever that may be, and I'd pick Sanders. If neither candidate won then no one gets the money. The amount of money each person had to put up was based on the difference in the gambling odds between the two candidates. So if I pick Sanders for $50, and he picks Clinton who has 100x better odds than Sanders, then he'd have to put up $5,000. Quite a difference, but fair based on the information and odds at the time, and as TCS had said Sanders had no chance of winning, it should have been an easy $50 win for him.

I see excuses, but no links.

 

[Manopolus]

Utah coming in -- Bernie is looking to have pretty good margins. Larger than Hillary's in Arizona so far. It's sitting around 70% on my feed.

Wow, 186-50 in Kane County. Salt Lake County about 4k-1k.

Nearing 75% now.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Utah coming in -- Bernie is looking to have pretty good margins. Larger than Hillary's in Arizona so far. It's sitting around 70% on my feed.

Wow, 186-50 in Kane County.

Too bad AZ has way more delegates than the other 2 states combined.

Oh well, maybe next week.

 

[Manopolus]

Too bad AZ has way more delegates than the other 2 states combined.

Oh well, maybe next week.

It still depends on the margins. Oh, and Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington State come in on Saturday. No need to wait 'till next week. It's also not that much more than the two combined. 75 for Arizona, 56 for Utah/Idaho. None of them are as big as Washington on Saturday at 101.

I'm not seeing any polling regarding Washington since May of last year, but it seems likely to go Bernie's way to me. I'm just basing that on Seattle's general reputation though. Hawaii seems to have no polls, and Alaska's is pretty even -- similar to what the polls said in Utah, actually.

 

[Manopolus]

Idaho reported all at once. Bernie wins with 78% of the vote. It was also fairly even in the polls -- like Utah was. There was only 4% difference according to the polls, if I remember right.

So... I guess when the polls say that it's going to be close, that means that Bernie wins with around 70% of the vote -- at least in some places. Kansas was the same way. Ohio doesn't count as being "even in the polls," because their poll numbers changed after Michigan shamed the pollsters. The earlier prediction (prior to Michigan) was pretty close to the result there. Illinois was a similar situation, except the later adjustments ended up being correct, unlike Ohio.

In other words, the pollsters are still full of crap, if you want me to summarize.

 

[Axiom_Blade]

I am puzzled why Anybody on the Political Left would be a de facto supporter of Trump.

Maybe because it's not simply a matter of "left" and "right".

 

[Tony Stark]

It looks like Bernie will most of the delegates tonight though less than 58% of them thus increasing the percentage of them that he will need to win going forward in order to get the majority of the pledged delegates.

 

[Manopolus]

It looks like Bernie will most of the delegates tonight though less than 58% of them thus increasing the percentage of them that he will need to win going forward in order to get the majority of the pledged delegates.

That's okay. The 58% number included the Democrats Abroad vote as well (i.e. was prior to it). It still might not quite make it (dunno), but Saturday should make up the difference (I hope).

I'm showing:

17-5 in Idaho, 1 unaccounted for
18-5 in Utah, 10 unaccounted for
22-40 in Arizona, 12 unaccounted for

So... 57-50 in Bernie's favor with 23 yet unaccounted for according to the site I'm watching on. Democrats Abroad gave Bernie 9 to Clinton's 4, so now we have 66-50 with 23 unaccounted for regarding the 58% target number.

Actually, it's looking better than I thought.

If we were to assume an even distribution of the remaining delegates, giving Clinton the extra, since the state she won has 1 more unaccounted than the other 2 combined, we come to 77-62 out of a total of 139 delegates. That's 55%. True, it's still not quite 58%. To get us to 58%, he would need 81 total from this batch of 139. That is still a possible outcome, however, at least according to the data (or lack thereof) that I currently have.


(ETA) oops, checked back on my math and it was wrong up where it says 66-50 it should be 66-54, which would also make a total of 143 instead of 139, because that's where I added it. Sorry. So... everything after that was affected by the error, and the error favored Bernie. It's still not a terrible situation by a long shot. I'm not going to recalculate just yet though. Also, there's reason to believe that the unaccounted for delegates will slant Bernie's way anyway, looking at the percentages.

 

[Puppycow]

Looks like Sanders could make up some ground over the next 5 contests, but then comes New York on April 19th.

You have Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington on March 26th, Wisconsin April 5th, and Wyoming April 9th. Combined those 5 states have 286 delegates, then New York has 291 delegates on April 19th.

 

[Manopolus]

Looks like Sanders could make up some ground over the next 5 contests, but then comes New York on April 19th.

You have Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington on March 26th, Wisconsin April 5th, and Wyoming April 9th. Combined those 5 states have 286 delegates, then New York has 291 delegates on April 19th.

Yeah, I'm hoping some serious momentum builds up before New York. I don't believe the Emmerson College poll for a second, even if it was done today though. It'll be closer than that. Even if I were a poll believer, that one's just bad. I looked at their methodology specifically.

 

[Manopolus]

Utah is creeping up on 80%. Their reporting is a bit slow though.

 

[Manopolus]

Uh-oh. This complaint is all too common:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pe...-suppression-arizona-3222016-democratic-party

Does anybody know if there was a deadline to switch parties to vote in the Arizona primary that might have been the cause? I suppose it might be a delay in getting the paperwork updated. It would also be a valid complaint in that case. I'm going to guess it's most likely Bernie supporters we're talking about here, since that's the norm on these issues.

 

[Puppycow]

Uh-oh. This complaint is all too common:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pe...-suppression-arizona-3222016-democratic-party

Does anybody know if there was a deadline to switch parties to vote in their primary that might have been the cause?

According to this page you had to register by Feb. 22, one month before the primary:

http://voteforbernie.org/state/arizona/


Test of the petition:

Petition to have the Obama Administration investigate the voter fraud and voter suppression on 3/22/2016 in ARIZONA. Numerous voters who switched from Independent to Democrat could not vote and were turned away or given provisional ballots which in turn were never counted. We the people of the United States of America find this act alarming and would like a complete investigation to uncover the violations that occurred during the Arizona voting on 3/22/2016 and prosecute those responsible to the fullest extent of the law.

Given that the votes are still being counted, is there any reason to believe that the provisional ballots won't be included in the final official total (assuming they check out as valid).

ETA: the page even warns:

Didn't know about closed primaries? You're not alone.

People are planning to vote for Bernie in Arizona, but they will not be able to!

Help Get The Vote Out in Arizona by sharing this page

So people would have had to have known about this over a month ago and taken action by the deadline. Anyone who waited till the last minute to decide is SOL.

 

[Slings and Arrows]

Too bad AZ has way more delegates than the other 2 states combined.

Oh well, maybe next week.

That should be Bern-out's campaign slogan: "Maybe next week".

 

[Manopolus]

That should be Bern-out's campaign slogan: "Maybe next week".

Actually, this week is looking pretty darn good. Next week is too, but... no need to wait for a maybe. It's looking like Bernie has gained ground already, and Saturday might even be better. I don't think it'll swing the other way until New York, if then. Arizona was the last state polling strongly for Clinton until NY. Everything between is either leaning Sanders, competitive, or lacks recent polling. In all three cases, I'm going to go with the history of this particular primary (in those situations) and say that Sanders wins by at least 60% in all of them.

Plus, they're all pretty white complected. I don't know -why- that demographic is important (at a guess, it might be because white democrats are less religious than any other group, and Sanders is not a Christian?), but all the pundits have been saying that it is. Repeatedly. You can't shut them up!

 

[Manopolus]

Given that the votes are still being counted, is there any reason to believe that the provisional ballots won't be included in the final official total (assuming they check out as valid)

Well, anyone that wasn't given a provisional ballot would still be a problem, assuming that they were registered properly before the deadline. It's quite possible that many didn't know about the deadline though. In many states, you can register when you caucus/vote, so I could see why there could be some confusion. It might be relevant, but then again maybe not.