Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%

  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%

  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%

  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%
  • Total voters
    249
I'm still holding out hope for a rational, electable, independent 3rd option in the general.

Maybe I'm old, but I'm baffled that Twitter wars are actually a part of a real campaign. I can't recall an election that posted two people I would have deemed as more unelectable than Trump and Clinton. This whole primary season feels like 'Idiocracy' was an actual documentary film from the future sent back in time as a warning to us that we are ignoring.
 
Trump is an amateur when it comes to politics. He's used his marketing skills to get a lot of attention and bounce. The political pros, however, say if Trump is truly serious about winning (and it doesn't seem to be clear that he is) he has also made a huge miscalculation. One that will probably cost him the election (if he gets the nomination).

To win a national election a candidate needs to do well with women and minorities, especially Hispanics. I think it's very doubtful that Trump will do well with either group.

In other words, the 'strategy' he's pursuing works very well with one part of the electorate and very badly with the rest. He's been able to separate himself from the rest of the pack with all the harsh rhetoric but it's not a winning strategy. What works in March during primary season does not necessarily work in November.

Does he not understand this or does he expect to run as the Republican, lose, and then use his candidacy to reinvent himself? Look at how Sarah Palin has translated electoral failure into enduring notoriety and big bucks. She even has her own TV network.
 
Spock Jenkins said:
I'm still holding out hope for a rational, electable, independent 3rd option in the general.

Maybe I'm old, but I'm baffled that Twitter wars are actually a part of a real campaign. I can't recall an election that posted two people I would have deemed as more unelectable than Trump and Clinton. This whole primary season feels like 'Idiocracy' was an actual documentary film from the future sent back in time as a warning to us that we are ignoring.
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It is not possible for an independent to win a Presidential election.
 
Tony Stark said:
It is not possible for an independent to win a Presidential election.
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To me, that doesn't matter. I can't, in good conscience, support either of the front runners. For that matter - on down the line, I'm not a big fan of any of the primary options. Maybe that says more about me than the candidates. Who knows?
 
Tony Stark said:
There is some chance but it is very small. He is disliked by a huge majority of the country (he will be the most disliked candidate probably ever). People will be motivated to vote just to make sure he doesn't become President.

Maybe he thinks he can pivot away from all the crap he's said during primary season but no way. It has all been recorded and will be used against him mercilessly. And it might backfire by angering his supporters if he tried anyway.

Hillary will also have two people that have won two Presidential elections each doing everything they can to make sure she wins. Bernie Sanders too, probably. Who has Trump got?

Trump is very likely going to lose. Probably badly.
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I think you badly underestimate just how feral the right-wing base has become. Despite all the documented assults on protesters and reporters, despite all of Trump's own documented words encouraging that behavior, despite documented instances of death threats and nazi salutes by Trump supporters, NOTHING seems to stop or slow the Trump machine.

We are a deeply divided nation (53/47 by last count) and both extremes are becoming more and more radicalized by the day.

As for Hillary, you forget her massive disapproval numbers. The fundraising scandals going all the way back to 96, lingering questions about her time as Sec State, especially her mishandling of classified information. her general arrogance and imperious nature, the shameful way she has used DNC support to suppress Sanders advocates.

A strong and fired up right vs a divided and dispirited left does not bode well for the outocme of the election.

I am genuinely fearful that 08 was our last, best chance to break the plutocracy, and that we screwed it up.
 
Spock Jenkins said:
To me, that doesn't matter. I can't, in good conscience, support either of the front runners. For that matter - on down the line, I'm not a big fan of any of the primary options. Maybe that says more about me than the candidates. Who knows?
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Then you would be helping guarantee a Trump victory. How does that sit with your conscience?
 
I don't understand how anyone could claim Clinton and Trump are "equally unfavorable." Clinton was my Senator in New York and she was pretty solid. I was never much of a Hillary fan but I learned to respect her. Her work ethic, her decency, her responsiveness. She didn't grandstand as our Senator but usually responded to any crisis with sensible solutions. She was inclusive, not an ideologue, she worked well with Republicans when that was what she had to do.

Trump on the other hand, has no track record in government whatsoever. His business career has been problematic, he has questionable ethics and questionable morals. He seems to be someone of cunning but with little real intelligence. He has no program, no fixed beliefs. How can anyone have a sense of what he would be like if he found himself in "the most powerful political position on earth?" I don't think we can have any idea what he would be like.
 
This has nothing to do with the question "Will the net well-being of the country go up or down if Clinton or Trump is elected" it's "Neither of them adequately represent me politically" All of these people saying oh if Sanders doesn't get in I'll vote for Trump or won't vote at all, they are doing nothing but virtue signalling to other people about how principled they are. The only people who truly believe there is no difference between the two candidates are hardcore conspiracy theorists who think that the entire political process is dictated by the big bad guys (illuminati, jews, globalists, lizards). It's a big joke. On election day no one will know your vote but you, and you vote for the person who you think will lead to more well-being in the country, it's as simple as that, anyone who tells you differently is lying to themselves, you, or both.
 
Cain said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Trumpanzees are dumb, out of touch with reality. True, but their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.
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Was going to post similar nightmare scenarios; either is not too much of a stretch at the moment.
 
Wayward son said:
The head to head polls don't have Trump behind by much. But those polls are not worth much. By far the most important issue - 47% in this poll - for people when voting for President is the economy and it will continue to rise in prominence as the election comes nearer. In polls Trump completely runs away with that as the candidate who will do the best job in that department.
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Polls aren't worth much.
Here, look at this poll!

:confused:
 
newyorkguy said:
Trump is an amateur when it comes to politics. He's used his marketing skills to get a lot of attention and bounce. The political pros, however, say if Trump is truly serious about winning (and it doesn't seem to be clear that he is) he has also made a huge miscalculation. One that will probably cost him the election (if he gets the nomination).

To win a national election a candidate needs to do well with women and minorities, especially Hispanics. I think it's very doubtful that Trump will do well with either group.

In other words, the 'strategy' he's pursuing works very well with one part of the electorate and very badly with the rest. He's been able to separate himself from the rest of the pack with all the harsh rhetoric but it's not a winning strategy. What works in March during primary season does not necessarily work in November.
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The guy has already claimed to be on both sides of several issues. I think you are underestimating his ability to change his position overnight. If he wins the nomination he will either claim that he said all those offensive things just to get the nomination or claim that he never said those things at all.

I am not claiming that he will succeed with either of those strategies; I am just asserting that all the stuff he has said up until this point does not preclude him from winning the presidency.
 
Spock Jenkins said:
No different than guaranteeing a Clinton victory. They are equally unfavorable in my estimation.
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How so? I know Billary is a slimeball, but at least she doesn't want to start a holy war, or forcibly remove 11 million people from the country. I can't recall a more clear choice for "lesser of 2 evils" in my lifetime.
 
Cain
----- their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.


He is putting final touches to this plan right now , knowing that the latter requires no help for it to happen .
 
It is too early to call, but the polls that I have seen show that Hillary is likely to beat Trump. At this point if I had to bet on one or the other it would be Hillary.

I am baffled by The Donald's support in general. A couple people in the office are supporters of him, and I will be darned if I can figure out why. None of them are who The Donald's typical supporters are portrayed as (i.e. racist jingoists).

The only thing that I can see across the board about The Donald's supporters are they tend to lean to the right more than the left, and they feel that Washington and Wall street are in bed together and we need to throw the bums out (oddly even though they lean to the right they are angrier at the Republican establishment than the Democrats).

Of course when I point out that The Donald is the poster boy of the shady businessman who they seem to be resentful of they bluster and get even crankier, and then go back to how The Donald will fix things.

I will give The Donald credit, his supporters love him. If he can increase his SPHERE OF ANGER to the public at large (particularly working Democrats) who knows?
 
Every day I see rational Republicans criticize certain things they don't much care for about their candidate of choice, I see rational Democrats criticize certain things about HRC or Bernie that they wish were different....you know healthy stuff that rational people do.

There are the exceptions, of course, but one thing I've noticed about Trump supporters is that ANY criticism of Donald Trump is strictly forbidden. Getting a Trump supporter to admit any negative thing about him is like pulling teeth.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see it as much with Republicans who support other candidates. I also don't see it as much with Bernie or Hillary. IMHO

God help somebody who brings up a single fault of The Donald to a group of his supporters.
 
Joey McGee said:
On election day no one will know your vote but you, and you vote for the person who you think will lead to more well-being in the country, it's as simple as that, anyone who tells you differently is lying to themselves, you, or both.
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Do people always vote for who they perceive as being best for the country as a whole? Surely they may also consider voting for who they perceive as being best for them, personally, or for particular groups.
 
I honestly don't see much difference between voting for Trump and voting for one of the Kardashians. Either's list of successes consists largely of reality TV shows. Cruz, for example, would be an absolute detriment to the country. Many of his positions on the Issues page on his site directly conflict with the US Constitution and I would still vote for him over Trump.

It utterly astounds me that anyone takes Trump seriously.
 
twinstead said:
Every day I see rational Republicans criticize certain things they don't much care for about their candidate of choice, I see rational Democrats criticize certain things about HRC or Bernie that they wish were different....you know healthy stuff that rational people do.

There are the exceptions, of course, but one thing I've noticed about Trump supporters is that ANY criticism of Donald Trump is strictly forbidden. Getting a Trump supporter to admit any negative thing about him is like pulling teeth.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see it as much with Republicans who support other candidates. I also don't see it as much with Bernie or Hillary. IMHO

God help somebody who brings up a single fault of The Donald to a group of his supporters.
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Such an interesting point. I hadn't directly thought about it, but you're right.

It seems I have allowed myself to suffer from overload in my thoughts about Trump and his supporters. For a long time now it seems there is another cringe-worthy incident, comment, that makes the news on a daily basis. I almost feel that I have become numb and no longer bother to shake my head or groan or use several censored words in response.

Perhaps it is like the stages of grief. I'm close to accepting that we may well have President Trump.
 
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