Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[logger]

Trump might win because both party establishments are the same. I thought Bern would have the same shot but it looks like dems love their establishment.

 

[Tony Stark]

Trump might win because both party establishments are the same. I thought Bern would have the same shot but it looks like dems love their establishment.

He might have a shot if he wasn't such an openly low life piece of crap. The vast majority of the country hates him. He's going to lose and bring your pathetic party down with him.

 

[logger]

He might have a shot if he wasn't such an openly low life piece of crap. The vast majority of the country hates him. He's going to lose and bring your pathetic party down with him.

Possibly, but things are set in motion now where I think society is going to get a lot worse. Only people with assets and power will fare well.

 

[logger]

I just watched the guy rush the stage, Trump handled it well. Situations like that are going to reinforce his inevitable presidency.

Tony at least he hasn't gotten anyone killed like Hillary has.

 

[Puppycow]

I was thinking about starting a thread on a similar topic but I see I got beaten to the punch.

ETA
About your .000001 chance of winning. Betting in Britain has produced these odds

Hillary 8/15
Trump 10/3 (or 50/15)

How do those odds translate into percentages?
But . . . I take betting odds with a grain of salt: I think the betting odds were very high that Hillary would win the Michigan primary, but she didn't. What the odds actually reflect is simply conventional wisdom in the UK. And conventional wisdom is not a crystal ball, not by a long shot. Conventional wisdom was that Jeb Bush would be the nominee, or maybe Scott Walker.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Trumpanzees are dumb, out of touch with reality. True, but their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.

And this is why 100% certainty or even 99.9999% certainty is foolish. People are fickle. There's a lot of time between now and November. There actually are signs that a recession could be coming: stock markets are down, many economic indicators have been negative for months. And those are just two possible events; there are others (black swans) that nobody has thought of.



Anyway, my own predictive powers are no better than anyone else's but here are my thoughts:

Most likely scenario is that Trump loses, probably badly. If you go to a site like Polling Report you can look at the "favorability ratings" for each major candidate and Trump's are more negative than anyone else's. In the primaries he can with with a plurality of votes, as long as the other votes are split among his rivals. Not so in the general.

But, as I mentioned above, people are fickle so maybe he can change people's minds by November. Or maybe he can change how people see Hillary Clinton. I doubt it, but you can't be sure.

FWIW, here's Trump's latest favorability ratings:
http://www.pollingreport.com/S-Z.htm#Trump

At latest count 67% of US adults had an unfavorable view of him, and 30% had a positive view.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16.htm
In another poll 69% said he was "not trustworthy"; the same poll has 59% say Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy though. On other questions though, she rates much better than Trump:
66% say she has the right experience and 58% say she has the right personality and temperament to be president whereas only 26% and 25% say those things about Trump.

As a percentage I'd still give Trump about a 10% chance of winning if he's the nominee. But I think it's more likely he will lose, maybe in a landslide.

 

[Corsair 115]

Reason say Hillary will win, but this being an American election I worry that Trump wins.

Honestly, Trump vs. Hillary strikes me as not being much different than Kang vs. Kodos. Either way, your planet is doomed! Doomed!

 

[angrysoba]

Nobody has a 100% chance of winning, but Trump has significantly greater than 0% as well.

I would put a Trump victory in the region of 40%.

Why? Because most, if not all, Republicans will vote Trump because he's a Republican. Even those who say they are against him.

I also think we can't discount those who think it will be a laugh to elect him, and those who are so put off by the Democrat candidate (whoever that may be) that they don't vote, or vote for a third party.

McCain and Romney were pretty wishy washy candidates. They weren't the types to excite people who may have had better things to do that day than vote.

 

[Tony Stark]

Nobody has a 100% chance of winning, but Trump has significantly greater than 0% as well.

I would put a Trump victory in the region of 40%.

Why? Because most, if not all, Republicans will vote Trump because he's a Republican. Even those who say they are against him.

I also think we can't discount those who think it will be a laugh to elect him, and those who are so put off by the Democrat candidate (whoever that may be) that they don't vote, or vote for a third party.

McCain and Romney were pretty wishy washy candidates. They weren't the types to excite people who may have had better things to do that day than vote.

They also weren't hated by 2/3 of the country.

 

[angrysoba]

They also weren't hated by 2/3 of the country.

Doesn't matter. Only half the country votes anyway. If Trump wins a quarter of the electorate then he has a shot if he wins the big electoral college states.

 

[wasapi]

Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize
because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].

Sorry, I don't recall where I read it, it may have been here, but it was stated that some difficulty was caused in ascertaining accurate public polls. The reason given was that a number of people who would vote for Trump would not publicly announce it for suspected backlash from peers.

Whatever. This time around the entire presidential campaign has simply left me having to shrug and alternately grind my teeth. It's a lose/lose situation. There is just no one . . .

 

[ddt]

I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.

Seconded.

You are right of course. There's always a chance that Trump will pull out - perhaps due to acute lead poisoning.

Or dioxine, or polonium?

 

[Tony Stark]

Doesn't matter. Only half the country votes anyway. If Trump wins a quarter of the electorate then he has a shot if he wins the big electoral college states.

Of course it matters. It makes people much more likely to vote against him.

As for the big states, he has no chance to win California, New York, or Illinois. He would win Texas for sure but so did McCain and Romney. Florida is less certain but he would probably be the underdog. And he would basically need it to win. While Hillary could lose it (and a couple of other swing states Obama won twice) and still win.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Or dioxine, or polonium?

Nah - we don't need poisons. This is America, where the right to bear an assassination device shall not be infringed!

The assassin will be a lone nutter who, according to 'his' Facebook page, has liberal leanings. Before capture he will commit suicide by shooting himself 15 times in the back.

 

[Arg9]

Freedom of speech doesn't mean that you can say whatever you want without being criticized for it. In fact, freedom of speech means that others have exactly as much right to criticize what you say as you have to say it.

Exactly, as we've seen since the creation of this nation. The PC propaganda is used and will continue to be used as a form of censorship and many know this which was my point of why Trump is appealing to many more than we know.

 

[Tony Stark]

Exactly, as we've seen since the creation of this nation. The PC propaganda is used and will continue to be used as a form of censorship and many know this which was my point of why Trump is appealing to many more than we know.

So using your free speech to criticize others' free speech is censorship? Laughable nonsense. People (Donald Trump for example) have a right to say all the bigoted crap they want. And others have the right to call them scumbag bigots. If they don't like it, too bad for them.

Trump (assuming the GOP doesn't find some way to deny him the nomination) will be the most hated nominee ever.

 

[Arg9]

Sorry, I don't recall where I read it, it may have been here, but it was stated that some difficulty was caused in ascertaining accurate public polls. The reason given was that a number of people who would vote for Trump would not publicly announce it for suspected backlash from peers.

Yeah, from what I've experienced first hand and witnessed is it is better to just keep quiet and vote (if we had worthy candidates). For many I've encountered, reasoning is not a possibility and logic is a fly's fart in the wind because name calling is easier and more fun.

Whatever. This time around the entire presidential campaign has simply left me having to shrug and alternately grind my teeth. It's a lose/lose situation. There is just no one . . .

It is bad. Easy to develop conspiracy theories on the matter because its so bad.

 

[Solitaire]

I just watched the guy rush the stage, Trump handled it well. Situations like that are going to reinforce his inevitable presidency.

Personally I can't wait for his first foreign policy move...

A cage match with Vladimir Putin.

 

[Arg9]

So using your free speech to criticize others' free speech is censorship? Laughable nonsense. People (Donald Trump for example) have a right to say all the bigoted crap they want. And others have the right to call them scumbag bigots. If they don't like it, too bad for them.

Trump (assuming the GOP doesn't find some way to deny him the nomination) will be the most hated nominee ever.

Tony—stop and take a deep breath.

Political correctness can be used as a form of censorship. If a group is led to believe in a certain perspective, and that group has enough power or seduction to influence legislation (or a government that just doesn't care and just takes advantage of it for its own purposes), anyone who develops a unique opinion will be punished or publicly ridiculed leading to silence or fear of speaking a dissenting opinion. What is politically correct can change through time.

 

[Tony Stark]

Tony—stop and take a deep breath.

Political correctness can be used as a form of censorship. If a group is led to believe in a certain perspective, and that group has enough power or seduction to influence legislation (or a government that just doesn't care and just takes advantage of it for its own purposes), anyone who develops a unique opinion will be punished or publicly ridiculed leading to silence or fear of speaking a dissenting opinion. What is politically correct can change through time.

The government isn't punishing anyone for having a dissenting opinion (nor is it likely to with the 1st Amendment and all). Though if Trump had his way, people would be thrown in jail for protesting him. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-demands-that-police-arrest-rally-protesters/

Frankly what it sounds like to me like you're saying that people like Trump should be able to say whatever disgusting crap they want without people calling them on. BS, bigots like Trump can say whatever they want. Just the same, people can call them bigots for saying it. That's what free speech actually is in this country.

 

[Joey McGee]

Personally I can't wait for his first foreign policy move...

A cage match with Vladimir Putin.

Christ, you can't have followed the news. If anything it would be a banya session where they both take turns with the branches.

Mental pictures!