Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[Joey McGee]

I keep having protracted arguments with friends, people on the subway, the cops on the way to the drunk tank, is it actually a real thing that Trump could beat Hilary in the GE? I say no. Three reasons.

1. Obama beat McCain and Romney; Drumpf has trashed both of them and they've both trashed him, how many voters can take that insult/turn on a dime?

2. General polls show Hilary with a 4 point win, par for the course margin.

3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.

Therefore there is a .000001 chance he will win, and I mean each and every one of those *********** zeros.

Am I a delusional optimist?

I have read those "Trump could win" articles too. I'm looking for real conviction and fear here.

Go Hilary 2016

"Almost as cool as Obama"

 

[Tony Stark]

There is some chance but it is very small. He is disliked by a huge majority of the country (he will be the most disliked candidate probably ever). People will be motivated to vote just to make sure he doesn't become President.

Maybe he thinks he can pivot away from all the crap he's said during primary season but no way. It has all been recorded and will be used against him mercilessly. And it might backfire by angering his supporters if he tried anyway.

Hillary will also have two people that have won two Presidential elections each doing everything they can to make sure she wins. Bernie Sanders too, probably. Who has Trump got?

Trump is very likely going to lose. Probably badly.

 

[bruto]

I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.

 

[Toke]

Reason say Hillary will win, but this being an American election I worry that Trump wins.

 

[Tony Stark]

I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.

I'm glad he is the probable nominee. He is pretty much unelectable and Cruz is worse anyway.

 

[Grizzly Bear]

I keep having protracted arguments with friends, people on the subway, the cops on the way to the drunk tank, is it actually a real thing that Trump could beat Hilary in the GE? I say no. Three reasons.

1. Obama beat McCain and Romney; Drumpf has trashed both of them and they've both trashed him, how many voters can take that insult/turn on a dime?

2. General polls show Hilary with a 4 point win, par for the course margin.

3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.

Therefore there is a .000001 chance he will win, and I mean each and every one of those *********** zeros.

Am I a delusional optimist?

I have read those "Trump could win" articles too. I'm looking for real conviction and fear here.

Go Hilary 2016

"Almost as cool as Obama"

Several points:

1.) Carrying a third term for either party is very rare. It's happened only twice since WWII. That's acting against her already

2.) There's a strong anti establishment mentality that's been in play on both parties. Trump for the repubs, and Sanders for the Dems. Hillary has to deal with her "establishment" roots in the public's perception

3.) Individual Polls have already deviated from actual results in the primaries. Look at actual trends to make that judgement is my opinion.

4.) Turn out rate for voters is high for republicans and low for democrats in the primaries. Does this translate to the generals or not?

Trump could lose... But hillary has a number of stigmas to overcome as well.
The last few elections were very often near dead heat as far as the popular vote is concerned

 

[Ladewig]

3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.

While you and I look for truthful, objective, and consistent statements from candidates, there are millions of voters that just don't care. Trump said he doesn't believe in climate change, then he said that he does believe and that he was just joking. I think he has gone back to calling it a hoax.

The US now uses a more fluid definition of truth evaluating candidates. Trump's positions on climate change are not going to cause a notable shift in the number of Trump's supporters or detractors. If you like him, then you can overlook what many, many people think is a minor issue. If you are against him, then this just reinforces your disdain and contempt.

Also, I suspect that after the primaries Trump will have an entirely new political platform. When asked about previous statements, he will either (1) ignore the question and repeatedly state his current opinion, (2) say that he had to say those things just to get nominated, (3) deny he ever said that statesment, or (4) accuse the interviewer being both biased and hostile.

ETA
About your .000001 chance of winning. Betting in Britain has produced these odds

Hillary 8/15
Trump 10/3 (or 50/15)

 

[Cain]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Trumpanzees are dumb, out of touch with reality. True, but their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.

 

[Shadowdweller]

A small but significant percentage of the American people actually pay attention to what the candidates say. Trump's ability to tap into the disaffected conservative angst isn't going to save him from the puerile crap he continuously spews.

 

[NoahFence]

Poll invalid. Where's my boy bernie?

 

[Trebuchet]

Poll invalid. Where's my boy bernie?

On Planet X?

 

[wasapi]

Though I voted Hilary would win, Trump scares me. I really believed, for a long time, that Trump would make a splash but eventually say something that would change the tide against him. He has said and done plenty, and people have smiled or yawned.

 

[Tony Stark]

Though I voted Hilary would win, Trump scares me. I really believed, for a long time, that Trump would make a splash but eventually say something that would change the tide against him. He has said and done plenty, and people have smiled or yawned.

He's got the support of a plurality of Republican primary voters. But the vast majority of the country hates him.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Trump will win because whenever he says something outrageous it increases his base.

By the time this election is over the outrage factor will be so high that heads will literally explode. I predict the population will drop 25% due to exploding heads - a prospect I relish, because I hate America!

Still, I worry that Clinton (or Sanders) might win. Though this would also cause plenty of outrage, there's a chance they might actually do some good for the country - despite constant assurances to the contrary. Such an outcome is totally unacceptable...

 

[Manopolus]

False dichotomy. There are still other options.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

The last few elections were very often near dead heat as far as the popular vote is concerned

And this one probably will too. One thing I worry about though:-

In previous elections, electronic voting machines boosted the republican tally. But can we be sure they will do the same this year? What if Republicans don't want Trump to win? What if they lay off the voter suppression because they can't be bothered? And what if democrats decide to actually vote? That scares me...

 

[Roger Ramjets]

False dichotomy. There are still other options.

You are right of course. There's always a chance that Trump will pull out - perhaps due to acute lead poisoning.

 

[Ladewig]

So, why is this 2016 election thread not in the 2016 election forum?

 

[Arg9]

Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].

 

[Tony Stark]

Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].

Freedom of speech doesn't mean that you can say whatever you want without being criticized for it. In fact, freedom of speech means that others have exactly as much right to criticize what you say as you have to say it.