I'm not unsure--just look at my Avatar, I took this photo personally so I need no convincing!
Given your familiarity with statistics--what are the odds that you are in fact a Poe? Since you mentioned shrooms (personally, I think acid would be a better choice...) I'd guestimate 50/50...but I'm not a forum erudite.
Alternately, what are the odds that you are, in fact, a reptilian overlord from a distant planet who has come insidiously to devour the brains of hapless ISF members? Since you acknowledge alien life is likely, and that the most obvious reason to visit earth would be for nefarious purposes, how can we be sure that you are not here to slyly gain our trust, only to devour our brains once the guard is down?