• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Global warming discussion IV

Status
Not open for further replies.
Agreed,

let me say I understand there is a correlation between sun spot number and solar output.

There is, but the variation solar output across the whole range of sunspot numbers is only about 0.1%, and given the huge amount of energy required to warm oceans and meal ice that just isn't enough change in energy flux to have a measurable impact on sub-century time scales
 
Actually, Arnold Martin: politics of denial about climate change leads to ignorance about climate science .
The graph in
Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Just a reminder.

http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/m...nomaly_svg.png
is a plot of temperature anomalies, not temperature. It shows the ~1.2°C increase in temperature since the 1880's. Using temperature anomalies is standard practice in climate science.
Positives and negatives of global warming
It takes a 2°C increase in temperature to produce adverse effects.
It takes a 4°C increase in temperature to produce catastrophic effects (up to 40% of global species will be at risk for extinction!).

In reality the Arctic is already at +4 C during some seasons due to Arctic amplification. The increase is not uniform.

CC-Arctic-amplification.png


UK is now on it's 9th named storm since Nov 15th 2015 thanks to the shift in the jet stream caused by Artic Warming.

Polar bears already are moving their ranges to cope with changes and changing their diet to cope.

Polar Bears Are Now Eating Dolphins in the Arctic
By Matt Smith

June 12, 2015 | 6:35 am

The good news: Polar bears, imperiled by climate change, appear to have found something new to eat.

The bad news: It's dolphins.

Scientists studying bears on the Arctic shores of Norway found several of the white-coated predators feasting on the remains of white-beaked dolphins, which appeared to have become trapped under the ice of a fjord.

"This is the first record of this species as polar bear prey," the team recounted in a study published in the scientific journal Polar Research. "White-beaked dolphins are frequent visitors to Svalbard waters in summer, but have not previously been reported this far north in early spring."
https://news.vice.com/article/polar-bears-are-now-eating-dolphins-in-the-arctic

Other species are moving north as the ice cover retreats...what used to be Arctic waters are now in some areas Northern Pacific and Northern Atlantic biomes.

Of course polar bears are used as polemics for warning about climate change....does not mean they are not being impacted....they are trying to cope in the fastest changing region ....some populations are succeeding, others declining, overall the news is not positive.

Your ludicrous denial of the obvious AM is getting very tiresome.....:rolleyes: Go play in the poltical forums instead of constantly appearing with foolish long discounted notions in the science forums.
 
Last edited:
a change to a lower state Maunder type minimum
is a variation from the resent normal regular cycle :confused:

A Maunder type minimum has almost no variation, the sunspot cycle stops, because there are no sunspots, or very few, during a Maunder minimum.

More variation would mean more sunspots or a stronger sunspot cycle.
 
The Maunder Minimum has been determined to have far less impact than the accompanying vulcanism.

No, we aren't heading into a 'mini ice age'
July 27, 2015 by Jim Wild, The Conversation
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-mini-iceage.html

snip
So we have to be careful associating the Maunder minimum with the Little Ice Age. A look at the data shows that the Little Ice Age began a long time (certainly more than a century) before the start of the Maunder minimum – and continued long after it ended. In any case, the Little Ice Age wasn't really an ice age. Although cold winters in Europe were unusually common, it doesn't seem to have been a global phenomenon. Research suggests it was a regional phenomenon and that the colder winters in Europe would have been accompanied by warmer ones elsewhere.
So what about global climate change? If solar activity is falling, and that has a cooling influence over the UK and Europe, isn't that a good thing?
Unfortunately not. The overwhelming consensus among the world's climate scientists is that the influence of solar variability on the climate is dwarfed by the impact of increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Most calculations suggest that a new "grand solar minimum" in activity would have a cooling effect that would temporarily offset just a few year's worth of the warming due to the emission of carbon dioxide by humans.
We may well be heading towards a period of low solar activity, but a new mini ice age seems very unlikely at this point.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-mini-iceage.html#jCp

reality is the sun is already in a lower output ...

Solar_vs_temp_500.jpg


That range however is a magnitude below the GHG signal....so answer your unspoken query.....

It's NOT the sun....
It's getting warmer.....we're responsible. :rolleyes:
 
yes in the recent past that was true

but if we go to a Maunder Minimum type event as some are predicting
then no

and all stars are subject to variation
and our's looks to be entering a period of increasing variation
after a time of minimum variation in recent history

Um, if the solar delta was not that great over the last 200 years then why would it matter?
 
In fact, the total solar irradiance has dropped from a bit below 1408 W/m2 last January 6th to a bit below 1398 W/m2 today, a lot more than during the Maunder minimum, and still the planet has warmed as a whole about 0.16°C in that period.

These people parroting Maunder minimums and "deedledy-doo the Sun!" really have no idea about what they're talking about. At least we don't have to go again through one of them telling us again the chalk-scratches-blackboard brainsore "but you admit the Sun warms the Earth! :rolleyes:"

They're basically repeating score after score plus seven years that a person is cold or hot depending on what the person eats -and they have discovered the Maunder Diet to burn calories- when in fact a person is hot or cold according to what they do and mainly according to what they wear for the weather they experience.
 
The Maunder Minimum has been determined to have far less impact than the accompanying vulcanism.
It's worth noting that in the 1640's there were at least twelve eruptions on the Ring of Fire large enough to be noted in logs and diaries as "darkening the skies". We know that one such volcano can have a marked effect, wearing off over a couple of years, but stack them on top of each other and it will surely mess things about. A feature of the the period is climate disruption on a wide scale, as opposed to simple cooling. Droughts, floods, unseasonable frosts, locusts, one damn' thing after another; it's stuff like that which really does the damage.
 
.

Polar bear cub hangs on for ride near Churchill, Man.
Photographer photographs some polar bears and likes the cold.
Arnold Martin cannot understand that pretty pictures of polar bears are not climate science :eek:!

.

Let me correct you ... it is not me who uses the Polar Bear for Global Warming purposes ... it is Al Gore and the propaganda writers .... they have worn out that picture of a single solitary Bear on a little ice flow.

Truth is there are at least 26,000 Polar Bears now , and they are fat and happy and cold. When Al Gore was born in 1946 there were only 6,000 Polar Bears.

ps: Polar Bears love water , they will jump in the ocean and go for a 40 km swim just for the heck of it.
 
If needed, I promise to write signs saying "Keep politics out of climate science", and "Hard yakka ruined by unscrupulous politicians" and go picketing in front of the Embassy of Australia. Count with me (provided there are simultaneous demonstrations in Australia and other countries)


If politics were removed from Global warming there would be nothing left. And we can see that happening as we speak . Most people do not care about it.

Global Warming had a heart attack in Copenhagen and the plug was pulled in Paris . It is pretty much over guys , and you know it. So does the UN

In 10 years from now there will hardly be enough Global Warmers to fill that tiny ice flow the solitary Polar Bear used to sit on.

And the planet will continue to run itself like it always has.
 
.
Arnold Martin did not understand what the politics of polar bears is.
.
.

You would be surprised how much I know . You would be surprised what I have seen first hand. But you would not be surprised why it never hits the news. It would unravel the propaganda

UN selected 4 high ranking IPPC members and commissioned them to do an updated news release regarding how Global Warming is affecting the Polar bear. They also selected 2 journalists , a cameraman , and a technician to accompany them .

Commercial Airline to Winnipeg , Commuter plane to Churchill , then charter a helicopter to fly them out over Hudson bay.

The helicopter pilot hears and sees everything ... the 8 New Yorker's come with their designer mittens , Starbucks thermos-cups with hot tea .... and the first words out of there mouths was .... F***k is it ever cold here .... why would anyone even live here .... can you turn the heat up please , this helicopter is drafty ...

30 minutes later over Hudson bay they say .... there are the polar bears .... look over here , there are a bunch more ..... a few minutes later ..... wow ... look at them all ... there must be thousands of them

Land the helicopter a safe distance from a group of bears ... everybody gets out .... F***k is it ever cold .... my fingers are freezing .... put your gloves back on ... cant work the camera with gloves on ..... OK , camera working .... hurry please , its too cold out here , we could get frostbite .... there , I got some footage ... lets go back ..... they should have better heaters in these helicopters , .... yeah , considering we are paying $2000 an hour to rent it ..... Sh1tt , my tea is cold .

6 weeks later they publish the news release , they use the Al Gore picture of the solitary Polar Bear on the little ice floe , and the content of the article is about how Global warming is threatening the bears.

.
 
You mean enough AGW deniers to fill a tea party cup....even they've abandoned your failed meme ....along with Exxon :rolleyes:

Surprising you still pick on big bad corporate Exxon considering your beloved Apple Corp has now surpassed them.

And you have your socialists in Alberta , a g woman running Ontario , and a handsome elementary school teacher running Ottawa. You must be running out of people to put the blame on.

I am still open season so continue to mock me all you want , I can handle it. I am way down south in Winnipeg where it is -29*C ... Festival du Voyageur is on and I am going to strut around in my polar bear Mukluks.

Take care.
 
World is moving on without you ....despite your fantasy...

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions flatlined globally in 2014, while the world economy grew. The International Energy Agency reports that this marks “the first time in 40 years in which there was a halt or reduction in emissions of the greenhouse gas that was not tied to an economic downturn.”

The IEA attributes this remarkable occurrence to “changing patterns of energy consumption in China and OECD countries.” As we reported last month, China cut its coal consumption 2.9 percent in 2014, the first drop this century. China is aggressively embracing energy efficiency, expanding clean energy, and shuttering the dirtiest power plants to meet its planned 2020 (or sooner) peak in coal use. As a result, Chinese CO2 emissions dropped 1 percent in 2014 even as their economy grew by 7.4 percent.

At the same time, the Financial Times points out “In the past five years, OECD countries’ economies grew nearly 7 percent while their emissions fell 4 percent, the IEA has found.” A big part of that is the United States, where fuel economy standards have reversed oil consumption trends — and renewable energy, efficiency, and natural gas have cut U.S. coal consumption.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/13/3633362/iea-co2-emissions-decouple-growth/
 
Meet Larry Marshall.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/10/incoming-australia-research-chief-touts-water-dowsing
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA—The next CEO of Australia’s leading research agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), is in hot water after suggesting the cash-strapped organization spend scarce research dollars investigating water divining, or dowsing.

“I’ve seen people do this with close to 80% accuracy, and I’ve no idea how they do it,” Larry Marshall told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in a recent radio interview. “When I see that, as a scientist, it makes me question, ‘Is there instrumentality that we could create that would enable a machine to find that water?’ … I’ve always wondered whether there is something in the electromagnetic field, or gravitational anomaly,” continued Marshall, who takes up his position in January.

CSIRO scientists are keeping their heads down in the wake of a 5.45% (AU$111.4 million) budget cut that will see up to 420 jobs eliminated by June 2015, along with the closure of eight research facilities. But some experts outside the agency have been quick to decry the interest in dowsing expressed by a Silicon Valley venture capitalist with a doctorate in physics. “I’m appalled,” says John Williams, a founding member of Australia’s leading group of water experts, the independent Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, who is based in Canberra. A more serious concern, says Williams, former chief of CSIRO Land and Water, is the need to persuade Marshall to shift his focus from water extraction to conservation. “We know where the water is. The trouble is there isn’t much of it, and we don’t know how it’s replenished,” he says. Tim Mendham, executive officer of Australian Skeptics Inc., adds that it’s a “letdown” that anyone with scientific training would use “vague concepts” like electromagnetic and gravitational effects to explain an unproven phenomenon like dowsing.
 
If politics were removed from Global warming there would be nothing left. And we can see that happening as we speak . Most people do not care about it.
Surprising though it may seem to you, reality cares not a fig what people care about.

Global Warming had a heart attack in Copenhagen and the plug was pulled in Paris . It is pretty much over guys , and you know it. So does the UN
How often we've heard that over the last thirty years.

In 10 years from now there will hardly be enough Global Warmers to fill that tiny ice flow the solitary Polar Bear used to sit on.
Something else we've heard repeatedly, and again with the polar bears - why do you people have such a thing about them?

And the planet will continue to run itself like it always has.
Which is to say it will warm in response to an enhanced greenhouse effect, just as it has been doing since before you started denying it.
 
Surprising you still pick on big bad corporate Exxon considering your beloved Apple Corp has now surpassed them.
The point being made was that Exxon now publicly acknowledges the reality of AGW, and has done for at least five years; Apple Corp never questioned it so your intended point is hard to fathom. Exxon publicly disassociates itself from AGW denial because it that has become a loony-fringe activity. You are clearly made of sterner stuff.
 
If politics were removed from Global warming there would be nothing left. And we can see that happening as we speak . Most people do not care about it.

Global Warming had a heart attack in Copenhagen and the plug was pulled in Paris . It is pretty much over guys , and you know it. So does the UN

In 10 years from now there will hardly be enough Global Warmers to fill that tiny ice flow the solitary Polar Bear used to sit on.

And the planet will continue to run itself like it always has.

This doesn't even deserve the 21 large laughing dogs allowed. The MA also prevents me from discussing the real core and content of that post, other than

Martin Skydiamonds - "The Nazis are winning the war!"
Alec - "No, they lost! Where were you the last 70 years?"

I would rather say: you better stay on your intended character. You're losing credibility.
 
This doesn't even deserve the 21 large laughing dogs allowed. The MA also prevents me from discussing the real core and content of that post, other than

Martin Skydiamonds - "The Nazis are winning the war!"
Alec - "No, they lost! Where were you the last 70 years?"

I would rather say: you better stay on your intended character. You're losing credibility.

you must possess something before you can lose it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom