Technical Analysis II

kevsta said:
I'm sticking to evil short-selling speculation, making money out of other people's misery etc..

and if you only want to call rallies, maybe focus on this for a while ;)

http://www.proshares.com/funds/spxu.html



plus dude, I would stop worrying about what "people want to do" seriously, nobody else is going to act on anything said here.
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I am not sure you realise how ridiculous that statement sounds though it may be true.
Maybe marplots bought apple maybe not. I hope he did, and shorted it, and hedged his pension fund at the top and so on. But you are almost certainly right, no one in these parts will be fooled into making easy money....
 
Going back a bit, I suggested everyone buy Bluescope Steel. They hit a nine month closing high today. I put the idea about down under, so maybe I will check on who bought and so on.

I already know the answer....
 
psionl0 said:
Just as well. You wouldn't want me to jinx you by putting (real) money on your tips. ;)
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I am not giving tips, my knowledge is for my use alone ;) ..and the thought that anybody might seriously financially act on "something posted on the internet" is pretty unlikely anyway.. ..people's financial planning tends to move at a more geological pace.

Samson you told me to "just buy" it at 1900 the other day. We spent 2 days going 30-pts the wrong way to get back to here.

..meanwhile I should have closed my shorts at those 30pts, rather than getting stopped out at zero again.

Im still not convinced that's the bottom finished with here, the Indices are basically tracking USDJPY between 118.9 down to 116.00 (the recent market lows) and I think that's probably still heading lower on the longer term timescales.

EDIT. here's the USDJPY outlook that paints it's lines all over your indices and portfolios. if (when) the red uptrend line fails here it's wheeee-time again. if it goes here on this 4 hour bar and fires the building squeeze downwards, well I hope you're using stoplosses Samson.. to be fair it could fire upwards too, but we look extended upwards already against the long-term trend, so down is more likely IMO.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/usdjpy-squeeze.png[/IMGW]

on the big picture we are due a mechanical re-testing of the green area here, equates to S&P at around 16-1700.


[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/usdjpy-weekly.png[/IMGW]
 
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Lothian said:
How much were you in for?
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Metaphysical credibility. How much stock did you purchase?

I have repeatedly suggested what I do is irrelevant. What CNBC tipster quantified any thing? I bet you both arms my audit trail wipes the floor with those dudes. Heh anyone can trawl the thread to check.
 
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Samson said:
Metaphysical credibility. How much stock did you purchase?

I have repeatedly suggested what I do is irrelevant. What CNBC tipster quantified any thing. I bet you both arms my audit trail wipes the floor with those dudes. Heh anyone can trawl the thread to check.
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I have no problem with someone putting their credibility as opposed to their money on the line. However on that basis it seems to me that you have nothing to lose. I do.
 
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psionl0 said:
Sorry, poor choice of words.

Just imagine how shot your analysis would be if I invested in the Skeptica funds. :yikes: ( ;) )
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haha. well, to be fair, they're not actually doing that bad, considering we had a blown up trader too? worst case scenario 2 accounts are back to around 100% again, with the other 3 between +14 and +30.

fairly clear to see which 2 accounts didn't have him on it, isn't it?

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/skeptica-Q1.png[/IMGW]

but do you think many pro 2 & 20% hedge funds could beat that on aggregate in Q1 from start? I doubt it.

and how many could match this in 2 months? only stock-slayer has blow-up man assigned.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/unobtainium-jan.png[/IMGW]
 
AALP predictions update

kevsta said:
Every momentum algo and trader in the world will be selling this for a while now, if I personally (still) owned a significant amount of this I would be looking at taking some sort of downside protection from the top of the next poke up, it may get past $100 again before the next downdraft.

I think we touch $92, bounce from there to 100ish and I will be looking to short it from the top of it's channel again.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/applesqueeze.png[/IMGW]

On the monthly chart, if we close January (bar is only 2 weeks into the month) below 97.85, then IMO we are visiting the green oval area over the coming months.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/applemonthly.png[/IMGW]
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Well, it did indeed manage to just breach $100 for a couple of days, but we are currently trading at 96.30 on the pre-market

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket-chart

which if we open here, means this hourly squeeze has already fired south. if that extends and we close the month below 97.85 as above, then only the Fed can rescue it now..

[IMGw=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/aapl-100.png[/IMGW]
 
kevsta said:
Well, it did indeed manage to just breach $100 for a couple of days, but we are currently trading at 96.30 on the pre-market

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket-chart

which if we open here, means this hourly squeeze has already fired south. if that extends and we close the month below 97.85 as above, then only the Fed can rescue it now..

[IMGw=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/aapl-100.png[/IMGW]
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You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.
 
Samson said:
You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.
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I would be interested in the hows and whys of your opinions. the algo has not predicted this has it? I don't think you really trade much based on the algo, do you?

and with AAPL down from 138 to 100 (to 95.8x at last look today) why exactly would you pronounce it over? ..after a 7 year bull run the bear will be over in a few months will it? ..interesting.. :)

the Federal Open Mouth Committee can possibly re-launch another bull run, for a little while at least, otherwise you are nowhere near bearish enough, IMO
 
kevsta said:
I would be interested in the hows and whys of your opinions. the algo has not predicted this has it? I don't think you really trade much based on the algo, do you?

and with AAPL down from 138 to 100 (to 95.8x at last look today) why exactly would you pronounce it over? ..after a 7 year bull run the bear will be over in a few months will it? ..interesting.. :)

the Federal Open Mouth Committee can possibly re-launch another bull run, for a little while at least, otherwise you are nowhere near bearish enough, IMO
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AFAIK Samson doesn't trade at all.

It's difficult to say what the pretend trades and predictions are based on but he likes to try to keep 'em vague AND where possible have contradictory "predictions" in play at the same time for example.....

You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless.
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So if the market starts to recover - Samson is right BUT if it continues to drop, he's also right because the underlying bearishness was correct (or alternatively he can come back in a few months and claim success because the market has finally dragged itself back up to the price at which he produced the "prediction"
 
The Don said:
AFAIK Samson doesn't trade at all.
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I think he is now though on a small live account.

and wrt to the duality of trading predictions, its unfortunately kind of inherent in the way the market moves to get where its going.

you'll note my ongoing chart predictions dont really focus too far ahead of the most probable next 2 likely liquidity points (on whatever timeframe) based upon current channel behaviours.

a skilled trader with this information (say my AAPL predictions over the last few weeks) would be able to make good money from each move. the rest of us do what we can lol.
 
kevsta said:
I think he is now though on a small live account.

and wrt to the duality of trading predictions, its unfortunately kind of inherent in the way the market moves to get where its going.

you'll note my ongoing chart predictions dont really focus too far ahead of the most probable next 2 likely liquidity points (on whatever timeframe) based upon current channel behaviours.

a skilled trader with this information (say my AAPL predictions over the last few weeks) would be able to make good money from each move. the rest of us do what we can lol.
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Idle speculation. I said I don't trade physical stocks, and opened an account for this thread. Outside of that I have never commented. I hope you are all long snp :D
 
Samson said:
Idle speculation. I said I don't trade physical stocks, and opened an account for this thread. Outside of that I have never commented. I hope you are all long snp :D
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I'm not but it looks like I probably should have been, USDJPY breaking out upwards, along with oil too.

there could be a massive reversal again on Fed minutes in (T-1hr 53mins) but otherwise prob 1925 to 1950 ish I'll be hitting it again
 
kevsta said:
I'm not but it looks like I probably should have been, USDJPY breaking out upwards, along with oil too.

there could be a massive reversal again on Fed minutes in (T-1hr 53mins) but otherwise prob 1925 to 1950 ish I'll be hitting it again
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I expect that 1950, and agree it should turn turtle there. I was unaware of the fed, maybe I should square up beforehand.
 
Samson said:
I expect that 1950, and agree it should turn turtle there. I was unaware of the fed, maybe I should square up beforehand.
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I wouldnt actually be that surprised to see a reversal, things often run the wrong way aggressively up until the news.

however the consensus seems to be a rally now and all the charts look strong currently so if we get a big spike up to 1925ish and re-trace I may well be shorting again today. Im not really interested in the upwards points from here.
 
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