Technical Analysis II

Samson said:
The snp is trading at 1869. I expect it to reach 1950 from here. No time frame but an equal dimension stop loss.
I would choose to close beforehand for any reason and would notify.
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And here we have it in a nutshell......

In effect you're saying that the S&P will hit 1870 (because you can elect to close as soon as you're in positive territory) before it hits 1798. I'd say that it's a pretty certain bet from your perspective, not least because the recent falls in the markets mean that a recovery - even if it is just a dead cat bounce - is pretty likely.

Your (in)ability to pick the market was ably demonstrated during the 6 month experiment.
 
The Don said:
And here we have it in a nutshell......

In effect you're saying that the S&P will hit 1870 (because you can elect to close as soon as you're in positive territory) before it hits 1798. I'd say that it's a pretty certain bet from your perspective, not least because the recent falls in the markets mean that a recovery - even if it is just a dead cat bounce - is pretty likely.

Your (in)ability to pick the market was ably demonstrated during the 6 month experiment.
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There is a straightforward syndrome on the thread. It was fun for posters early because it seemed random with the snp trading, but as the predictions trend towards deadly accurate when finding ideas as they presented, no one wants to know.
Why?
I believe it is human nature to never admit having been wrong, even at the expense of missing high value hedging opportunities. I believe indeed there is serious antipathy, and a solid desire for me to be wrong, though the converse, a desire for me to be right, and then following the recommendations, would make you all rich.
 
well I was wrong about a final drive down before a reversal bounce, and so I have to adjust the target for the bounce to around the 1930-50 mark.

a couple more false starts and out at zero again yesterday.

and the more doubtful amongst you will likely be pleased to learn that one of the Skeptica trading systems seemingly blew up a couple of days ago, the graphs look pretty catastrophic on the accounts he was plugged into.

obviously it was the trader I was deliberating about removing last weekend, and yet did nothing. thankfully as these are test accounts this is exactly what I need to see happen on demo.

still looking good to go (live) on the Wildfire account in Q1.
 
kevsta said:
well I was wrong about a final drive down before a reversal bounce, and so I have to adjust the target for the bounce to around the 1930-50 mark.

a couple more false starts and out at zero again yesterday.

and the more doubtful amongst you will likely be pleased to learn that one of the Skeptica trading systems seemingly blew up a couple of days ago, the graphs look pretty catastrophic on the accounts he was plugged into.

obviously it was the trader I was deliberating about removing last weekend, and yet did nothing. thankfully as these are test accounts this is exactly what I need to see happen on demo.

still looking good to go (live) on the Wildfire account in Q1.
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kevsta, go long snp. Take profit 1950.
I sent you the algo months ago, just trust me,
 
Samson said:
kevsta, go long snp. Take profit 1950.
I sent you the algo months ago, just trust me,
Click to expand...

apparently the narrative is that markets are bouncing on the sniff of more Centrally Planned CTL+P

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-22/global-stocks-surge-oil-soars-hopes-central-bank-stimulus-return

IMO it is inevitable, or have the truth about the ongoing economic depression be finally revealed, but I'm not sure they're ready just yet.

but the market may call their bluff again, as heading higher with no action taken, negates the need for the action, setting us up for the next more violent push down if they disappoint again.
 
Lothian said:
In her defence with the traditional "Who is a clever boy then?" ruled out she was probably reaching.
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punctuation?

Let me try

In her defence, with the traditional "Who is a clever boy then?" ruled out, she was probably reaching.

I still don't get it though.
 
To my avid supporters:

After recommending to buy SnP at 1869 in real time, I am delighted to tell you all it closed for the weekend at 1906. Thus we are 37 points towards our target, with 44 to go.
If it seems to falter I will suggest we exit early, but at the moment I think we should hold out for the full 4.3%.

Enjoy your weekends. :)

ETA this is technical analysis at its finest. Here is a screen capture I took before the move.
 

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Samson said:
To my avid supporters:

After recommending to buy SnP at 1869 in real time, I am delighted to tell you all it closed for the weekend at 1906. Thus we are 37 points towards our target, with 44 to go.
If it seems to falter I will suggest we exit early, but at the moment I think we should hold out for the full 4.3%.

Enjoy your weekends. :)

ETA this is technical analysis at its finest. Here is a screen capture I took before the move.
Click to expand...

still confident? I'm short again from 1900 and DJI from 15951. I don't think this is "the bounce" we are looking for and we are going down again first, at least to 1865, but maybe lower again.
 
kevsta said:
still confident? I'm short again from 1900 and DJI from 15951. I don't think this is "the bounce" we are looking for and we are going down again first, at least to 1865, but maybe lower again.
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1865.png


the next liquidity levels are 1846 1824 and 1811, and I don't think we are done probing the downside yet. possibly not by a long way..
 
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kevsta said:
still confident? I'm short again from 1900 and DJI from 15951. I don't think this is "the bounce" we are looking for and we are going down again first, at least to 1865, but maybe lower again.
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No not confident at all. What is clear is people only want to buy. If it's going up they want to buy because it's going higher. If it's going down they wan to buy because it's cheap. Since there is zilch traction when I say sell, I decided to call rallies. Two out of two. The crowd is going wild.
 
Samson said:
No not confident at all. What is clear is people only want to buy. If it's going up they want to buy because it's going higher. If it's going down they wan to buy because it's cheap. Since there is zilch traction when I say sell, I decided to call rallies. Two out of two. The crowd is going wild.
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As long as you define "calling rallies" as the market gaining one point before it loses 5% :rolleyes:
 
Samson said:
No not confident at all. What is clear is people only want to buy. If it's going up they want to buy because it's going higher. If it's going down they wan to buy because it's cheap. Since there is zilch traction when I say sell, I decided to call rallies. Two out of two. The crowd is going wild.
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I'm sticking to evil short-selling speculation, making money out of other people's misery etc..

and if you only want to call rallies, maybe focus on this for a while ;)

http://www.proshares.com/funds/spxu.html

ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500®.
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plus dude, I would stop worrying about what "people want to do" seriously, nobody else is going to act on anything said here.
 
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