Global warming discussion IV

[Haig]

more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160104163203.htm

Nothing new under the Sun

"But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years."

Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.

 

[Haig]

Interesting to note from the above post that when ever solar radiation has decreased and volcanic activity has increased, global temperatures suddenly plummet.

It's almost like the weakening Sun triggers volcanic activity

More evidence that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the just ending Modern Warm Period

Evidence of the Medieval Warm Period in Australia, New Zealand and Oceania

The climate of the pre-industrial past is of greatest importance to the ongoing climate discussion. Current climate can only be understood when interpreting it in the paleoclimatological context of the past few thousand years. Until not too long ago it was thought that the pre-industrial climate was monotonous and constant. This idea was e.g. promoted by Mann et al. whose famous hockey stick curve featured prominently in the IPCC report of 2001. Over the last 15 years, however, a large number of studies changed this view by providing robust evidence for the existence of significant natural climate variability. Of particular interest are the past 1000 years which commenced with the generally warm ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA, aka ‘Medieval Warm Period’, MWP), that eventually passed into the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), before returning to the warm climate of the current ‘Modern Warm Period’ of the 20th and early 21st centuries.

Conclusions

The existing studies document, that the MWP is clearly developed in Australia/Oceania. Temperatures have been elevated 950-1500 AD, with only short cooler interludes. Clear subsequent cooling is reported towards the Little Ice Age. Renewed warming occurred during ramp-up towards Modern Warm Period. There is currently no basis to say that the Modern Warm Period might be much warmer than the MWP in the region.

 

[aleCcowaN]

It's almost like the weakening Sun triggers volcanic activity

More nonsensical assertions from you

Old GISP2 plots? How vintage of you! It seems you have lost your GRIP

This:



awaits for you to answer what is the average "air temperature at the summit of the Greenland air sheet" for the current century. The infantile red dotted line in you figure doesn't point to it. You can also add the resolution -in years- of the plot in your figure, together with its author (you'd be surprised).

 

[bobdroege7]

There is some long missed humor back in the climate debate.

"Whether carbon dioxide even exists at all is of course debatable, atoms being nothing more than a theory,"

Somebody asked me for a cite, well here it is.

"Beneath it's smoking slopes exists a vast labyrinth of laboratories, housing monolithic computers upon which an army of climate scientists endlessly toil, committing various arcane and blasphemous adjustments to raw data in a desperate bid to topple the global economy."

From here

http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2016/01/there-has-been-awakening.html

Glad you are back Inferno, we have missed you.

 

[aleCcowaN]

From here

http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2016/01/there-has-been-awakening.html

Glad you are back Inferno, we have missed you.

This (tittle and figure together) is simply genius.

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

Most of the comments are from people in on the joke.

Helen25 October 2012 at 00:05
People can have their different opinions on the subject matter and I believe that you have written your opinions down thoroughly.

Reply

 

[stanfr]

19 of the last 20 years were warmer than average in the U.S., 2015 was second warmest on record:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201512

 

[Reality Check]

Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.

Yet another climate denier web site from Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or three.?
Actually not quite - just 2 climatologists with some ignorance in their opinions:

We, Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, believe that the warming and even the cooling of global temperatures are the result of long-term climatic cycles, solar activity, sea-surface temperature patterns and more. However, Mankind’s activities of the burning of fossil fuels, massive deforestations, the replacing of grassy surfaces with asphalt and concrete, the “Urban Heat Island Effect,” are making conditions worse and this will ultimately enhance the Earth’s warming process down the meteorological roadway in the next several decades.

The current AGW is not a result of any of the listed factors, especially solar activity.

 

[Reality Check]

More evidence that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the just ending Modern Warm Period

Haig fantasizes about climate ("just ending") - what a surprise!
Evidence of the Medieval Warm Period in Australia, New Zealand and Oceania is not evidence that Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the still continuing AGW.
This is a WUWT blog entty by Sebastian Lüning

Sebastian Lüning (alternatively spelled Sebastian Luening) is a geologist currently working for Portuguese oil and gas energy corporation, Galp Energia, according to his LinkedIn profile.

i.e. so ignorant that he does not know that the output from the Sun has decreases over the last 40 years while temperatures have increased !
The blog itself is exactly what the title says - a list of MWP data from Australia, New Zealand and Oceania but based on the climate change denial MWP Mapping Project, not science. He is lying by cherry picking regions.
The climate science is: How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?

While the Medieval Warm Period saw unusually warm temperatures in some regions, globally the planet was cooler than current conditions.

Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or three.

Ending with the repeated idiocy of an irrelevant Greenland temperature graph!

 

[aleCcowaN]

40-45 days before reaching its annual minimum, the Arctic sea ice extent is to date >2 million square kilometres smaller than last year's. The consequence in terms of the energy budget is tremendous, though fortunately short lived: more than doubling the mean heat the planet is absorbing as a consequence of the actual imbalance caused by GHG.

Thanks Darwin there's a Niña at the gates.

 

[Mikemcc]

40-45 days before reaching its annual minimum, the Arctic sea ice extent is to date >2 million square kilometres smaller than last year's. The consequence in terms of the energy budget is tremendous, though fortunately short lived: more than doubling the mean heat the planet is absorbing as a consequence of the actual imbalance caused by GHG.

Thanks Darwin there's a Niña at the gates.

I'm assuming you meant maximum before the trolls pounce!

 

[aleCcowaN]

I'm assuming you meant maximum before the trolls pounce!

I mean Antarctic sea ice extent (holly geographic dyslexia, Batman!).

The Arctic sea ice extent is hardly having such impact on the planet's energy budget in January, though it has some.

 

[macdoc]

Interesting geography changes coming up in the longer term...

Carbon emissions 'postpone ice age'
By Jonathan Amos
BBC Science Correspondent
36 minutes ago

The next ice age may have been delayed by over 50,000 years because of the greenhouse gases put in the atmosphere by humans, scientists in Germany say.
They analysed the trigger conditions for a glaciation, like the one that gripped Earth over 12,000 years ago.
The shape of the planet's orbit around the Sun would be conducive now, they find, but the amount of carbon dioxide currently in the air is far too high.
Earth is set for a prolonged warm phase, they tell the journal Nature.
"In theory, the next ice age could be even further into the future, but there is no real practical importance in discussing whether it starts in 50,000 or 100,000 years from now," Andrey Ganopolski from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
"The important thing is that it is an illustration that we have a geological power now. We can change the natural sequence of events for tens of thousands of years," he told BBC News.
Earth has been through a cycle of ice ages and warm periods over the past 2.5 million years, referred to as the Quaternary Period.

more
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35307800

 

[aleCcowaN]

it's an ill global warming that blows away no glaciation

 

[aleCcowaN]

"But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years."

Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.
[qimg]http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d1876850970c-pi[/qimg]

How nice, Snakes and Ladders!

Have you noticed, my playing boy, how both figures you dropped the last contradict each other with their 300 years shorter or moved spells? You even have a cold period in Snakes... that has no correspondence in the summit plot.

So you have now to decide what half of that crap are you going to stick to. That happens when you have the sun, volcanoes and martians altogether.

 

[Trakar]

Nothing new under the Sun

"But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years."

Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.
[qimg]http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d1876850970c-pi[/qimg]

Several questions for you, but let us start with: How is your source measuring global temperatures from 2500B.C. and why do you support and agree with these measurements instead of the assessments of global temperatures over the last 5000 years that are recognized, evidenced and supported by mainstream paleoclimatologists?

 

[Reality Check]

Some lower estimates of climate sensitivity have been found to be calculated incorrectly.
Marvel et al (2015) Part 1: Reconciling estimates of climate sensitivity

The recent paper by Kate Marvel and others (including me) in Nature Climate Change looks at the different forcings and their climate responses over the historical period in more detail than any previous modeling study. The point of the paper was to apply those results to improve calculations of climate sensitivity from the historical record and see if they can be reconciled with other estimates. But there are some broader issues as well – how scientific anomalies are dealt with and how simulation can be used to improve inferences about the real world. It also shines a spotlight on a particular feature of the IPCC process.

One of the most intriguing differences between IPCC AR5 (section 10.8) and previous reports was the bottom line conclusion on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Compared to AR4, they moved the lower limit for the likely range from 2ºC to 1.5ºC and instead of suggesting a ‘best estimate’ of ~3ºC, they didn’t feel as if they could give any best estimate at all, leaving an impression of a wide (perhaps uniform) distribution of likelihoods from 1.5 to 4.5ºC. (NB. If you want a good background on climate sensitivity, David Biello’s article at Scientific American is useful or read our many previous posts on the topic).

The reason for this change was a series of new papers (particularly Otto et al, 2013 and Aldrin et al, 2012) which focused on sensitivity constraints from the historical period (roughly 1850 to the present).

In short the papers made some simplifying assumptions. Remove the simplifications and the sensitivity goes from 1.3ºC to about 1.8ºC

Marvel et al (2015) Part 2: Media responses

The obvious error is that they thought it was news that aerosol emissions have partially cancelled out some of the warming one would expect with greenhouse gas emissions. Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that aerosols are an important climate forcing, have a net cooling effect on climate and, in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been part of mainstream science for 30 years.

As bad as that was, WUWT went one better. Apparently, not only is there a cancellation between aerosols and greenhouse gases, it is perfect(!) and that is why there hasn’t been any climate change(!). This is of course much stupider and relies on a complete lack of reading comprehension combined with a predisposition to think that the bloggers at WUWT are much smarter than everyone else. That they end up demonstrating the opposite is an appropriate karma.

 

[Reality Check]

Several questions for you, but let us start with: How is your source measuring global temperatures from 2500B.C. and why do you support and agree with these measurements instead of the assessments of global temperatures over the last 5000 years that are recognized, evidenced and supported by mainstream paleoclimatologists?

That question reveals just how non-scientific Haigs source is - there is no measurement of global temperatures in the Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D diagram .
What we have is a cartoon with no temperature scale or even citations to support their "Warm", "Very Warm", "Cold" or "Very Cold" labels.
What we have is a rather mysterious Raymond H. Wheeler who did some research in the 1930s and 1940s. He was a psychologist not really a climatologist (no sign of published climate papers):

Raymond Wheeler was a Professor of Psychology at the University of Kansas from 1925-1947. He was known for his research on climatology and its relationship to human behavior and civilizations, as well as his work on Gestalt psychology. This collection contains material reflecting these research activities.

We have a lie about "Our recent decline in the Earth’s temperature" when the total heat content of the Earth has increased for decades. Even global surface temperatures have increased over those decades!
The source is basically a couple of ignorant people who think they can make 12 month long weather forecasts down to city levels ! OTOH all I see are monthly averages - which is close to "it is hot on summer, cold in winter".
The ignorance of "these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years. The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago, so we may be due again sometime soon.".
The ignorance is about the cause of ice ages - the cycle is best explained by changes in the Earth’s orbit and tilt. The current changes in orbit and tilt do indicate a cooling period but they also match to a previous interglacial that lasted about 30,000 years.

 

[Trakar]

That question reveals just how non-scientific Haigs source is - there is no measurement of global temperatures in the Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D diagram ....

I just want to know why he prefers this presentation instead of the mainstream scientific evidences, data, analyses and understandings?

 

[a_unique_person]

Nothing new under the Sun

"But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years."

Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.
[qimg]http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d1876850970c-pi[/qimg]

Climatologist Cliff Harris presents a new book on the scientific and spiritual approaches on how the WEATHER has played a MAJOR ROLE in the BIBLE.

Published on March 30, 2015, the book and Cliff’s long-range weather forecasts have been featured on various radio and print media.

“Weather and Bible Prophecy” takes an abbreviated trip through the BIBLE from the Pre-Adamic era to the New Jerusalem.

Some topics include:

When are the major climate and cultural cycles colliding?

What are the future prophecies based on the Bible?

What are the futures prophecies of Israel?

How God is using the weather to get our attention.

How did the weather influence major events in the Bible?

Weather and Bible Prophecy's advanced copies are available for purchase. There will be a LIMITED RUN of the first edition complete with colorized illustrations and charts. Each copy will be AUTOGRAPHED by the author, Climatologist Cliff Harris. Makes a great stocking stuffer and FREE SHIPPING!

What a stuffer.