Global warming discussion IV

[macdoc]

Hey Arnold ...you also take his word on evolution too???

Roy Spencer | DeSmogBlog
www.desmogblog.com/roy-spencer
Roy W. Spencer Credentials Ph.D., Meteorology, University of ... years earlier in which he stated the “theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis ...

Dr. Roy Spencer, Please Keep Your Religion Out Of Science
www.realskeptic.com/2014/.../dr-roy-spencer-please-keep-religion-scien...
Jan 29, 2014 - Dr. Roy Spencer, Please Keep Your Religion Out Of Science ... else than the attempt of dressing up creationism (religion) in a lab coat to make ...

Your efforts are really pathetic now...it's over ...move on ...there are lots of tough policy decisions coming up that are hard choices....many to do with hydrology and how much money to spend and where.....what to abandon and what to keep.

••••

Arctic ice cover has taken an interesting turn given the crazy warmth...

←
2015 in review
January 5, 2016

December ended with Arctic sea ice extent tracking between one and two standard deviations below average, as it did throughout the fall. This caps a year that saw the lowest sea ice maximum in February and the fourth lowest minimum in September. In Antarctica, December sea ice extent was slightly above average but far below the exceptionally large ice extents recorded for December 2013 and 2014. A slow-down in the rate of Antarctic sea ice growth in July was followed by near-average extents in the subsequent months. The first week of 2016 has seen very slow ice growth in the Arctic.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

[Haig]

What I'm finding astonishing is the Mississipi is about to break some all time records.....IN WINTER!!!!???? [

So what ?

This warming is just due to the current El Niño event a natural phenomena. It's not driven by AGW delusions of Co2

In fact all the global warming of the last 20 years is due to natural phenomena of El Niño events with 2015 ranked third behind the El Niño of 2010 and of course the El Niño of 1997.

Annual Global Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) Anomaly Update – Distant Third Warmest for 2015

New rivers forming on melting Greenland ice sheet could boost sea level rise
Sea level rise may get a boost as ice loses ability to absorb meltwater amid climate change

more
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/greenland-firn-1.3389997

So what ?

It's another natural phenomena. It's not driven by AGW delusions of Co2

Failed claim right out of the gate: Climate change altering Greenland ice sheet & accelerating sea level rise

Research from the University of Sheffield has shown that unusual changes in atmospheric jet stream circulation caused the exceptional surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer 2012.

And this: A researcher said it was a recurring 150 year event that was ‘right on time‘:
“Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time,” says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data.

So global warming is overwhelmingly due to natural phenomena with the Co2 warming like a gnat on an elephants back ... I wonder what could be driving that

Solar Dynamics Observatory: The 'Variable Sun' Mission

For some years now, an unorthodox idea has been gaining favor among astronomers. It contradicts old teachings and unsettles thoughtful observers, especially climatologists.
"The sun," explains Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters in Washington DC, "is a variable star."

To the amazement of many researchers, the solar constant has turned out to be not constant.
"'Solar constant' is an oxymoron," says Judith Lean of the Naval Research Lab. "Satellite data show that the sun's total irradiance rises and falls with the sunspot cycle by a significant amount."

Finally – and of most immediate relevance for Earth--SDO will observe the sun at wavelengths where the sun is most variable, the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). EUV photons are high-energy cousins of regular UV rays that cause sunburns. Fortunately, our atmosphere blocks solar EUV; otherwise a day at the beach could be fatal. In space, solar EUV emission is easy to detect and arguably the most sensitive indicator of solar activity.

"If human eyes could see EUV wavelengths, no one would doubt that the sun is a variable star," says Tom Woods of the University of Colorado in Boulder.

During a solar flare, the sun's extreme ultraviolet output can vary by factors of hundreds to thousands in a matter of seconds. Surges of EUV photons heat Earth's upper atmosphere, causing the atmosphere to "puff up" and drag down low-orbiting satellites. EUV rays also break apart atoms and molecules, creating a layer of ions in the upper atmosphere that can severely disturb radio signals. According to Judith Lean, "EUV controls Earth's environment throughout the entire atmosphere above about 100 km."

"EUV is where the action is," agrees Woods.

 

[tsig]

Which is unfortunately a climate denier lie since 98% of climate scientist believe that the scientific evidence is that our emissions of CO2 have been dominant in climate change for about 40 years (the period that the Sun's output has been constant).
Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or three.

This is Bob Tisdale with his delusion that global warming is caused by natural variations.
Evolutions of Global Surface and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies in Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niños


is a delusion since this is not mentioned by Tisdale.
El Niño and La Niña are natural climate events that are driven by many factors. The evidence is growing that AGW is increasing the number of El Niño events.


is a lie since the article explicitly quotes an author supporting AGW as a driver for these wavier jet streams:

And here is the paper: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming

(my emphasis added)
Followed with Haig's usual delusions about a new Little Ice age !

Haig is right it's just that humans are a natural factor.

 

[aleCcowaN]

You're just spamming the same images (here some of your uses) without referring to them. The same about your links.

You may think that hides you not showing any connection between the images, links and what you're saying here.

Not strange as you still don't have the faintest idea what Total Solar Irradiance is (right now above 1408 W/m2) nor any of the elements you're confusedly shoving into your posts.

Haig is right it's just that humans are a natural factor.

is Haig right because of a semantic reason?

 

[tsig]

You're just spamming the same images (here some of your uses) without referring to them. The same about your links.

You may think that hides you not showing any connection between the images, links and what you're saying here.

Not strange as you still don't have the faintest idea what Total Solar Irradiance is (right now above 1408 W/m2) nor any of the elements you're confusedly shoving into your posts.



is Haig right because of a semantic reason?

Nothing semantic about it unless you think that humans aren't natural.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Nothing semantic about it unless you think that humans aren't natural.

So, it was semantic. And you can't go further that.

Thank you for confirming yours wasn't about this thread's topic.

 

[macdoc]

Nothing semantic about it unless you think that humans aren't natural.

everything semantic about it as the term "natural" in the AGW discussion is deemed " outside the natural carbon cycle" ....ie addition of fossil carbon to the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels.

Now do you have some climate science to add to the discussion....or are the nits bothering you.

 

[Reality Check]

So what ?

So what is

1. You flooding the thread with delusions about climate science from climate change deniers. Haig.
2. The idiocy of calling AGW delusional when 97% of climate scientists agree that it is happening.
3. Lying about "the last 20 years of global warming" when you have denied repeatedly that it exists (those lying no global warming fro X yeard and y months graphs) !
4. A "global warming is overwhelmingly due to natural phenomena with the Co2 warming like a gnat on an elephants back" lie.
   97% of climate scientists agree that AGW is happening. Global warming is overwhelmingly due to our causing CO2 levels to increase. That is the greenhouse effect you deny, Haig . Natural variations are a fluctuation on top of greenhouse effect.
5. The irrelevant idiocy of NASA says our sun is a variable star pops yet again !
6. The delusion that this is a thread about earthquakes as in one the images you insist on spamming us with !

Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or three.

 

[Reality Check]

Anthony Watts lies about climate science (4 Jan 2016)

WUWT has a real whopper on 4 Jan 2016: Failed claim right out of the gate: Climate change altering Greenland ice sheet & accelerating sea level rise
Anthony Watts is commenting on a press release, Climate change altering Greenland ice sheet & accelerating sea level rise, says York University prof

The team was surprised by what they found. An extreme melt that occurred in 2012 caused a layer of solid ice, several metres thick, to form on top of the porous firn in the low elevation areas of the ice sheet. "In subsequent years, meltwater couldn't penetrate vertically through the solid ice layer, and instead drained along the ice sheet surface toward the ocean," said Colgan. "It overturned the idea that firn can behave as a nearly bottomless sponge to absorb meltwater. Instead, we found that the meltwater storage capacity of the firn could be capped off relatively quickly."
As Machguth said, "Basically our research shows that the firn reacts fast to a changing climate. Its ability to limit mass loss of the ice sheet by retaining meltwater could be smaller than previously assumed."
Because the models scientists use to project Greenland's sea level rise contribution do not presently take firn cap-off into consideration, it means that Greenland's projected sea level rise due to meltwater runoff is likely higher than previously predicted. Getting this newly observed physical process into these models is an important next step for the team.

Watts lies about the contents of the release. They are reporting is that a layer of ice exists that prevents the firn from soaking up as much melt water than previously thought which then increases the amount of water going into the ocean. The modeling of the runoff does not take this layer in account and so future projections of runoff are too low.
Watts himself cites studies that support the claim!

 

[Haig]

everything semantic about it as the term "natural" in the AGW discussion is deemed " outside the natural carbon cycle" ....ie addition of fossil carbon to the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels.

Now do you have some climate science to add to the discussion....or are the nits bothering you.

Yip! just some more natural phenomena


El Nino turns ‘el mean yo’ for California

Over the last few days California has been hit by a series of winter storms that have been driven by an El Nino aimed Jetstream pattern that has pushed further to the south and with more zonal flow than usual.

All in all though from what I’ve seen in Southern California it’s all pretty much business as usual for an El Nino winter it’s just that people haven’t been used to such weather for quite a long time.

Of course that hasn’t stopped some pundits from declaring all of this as being driven by “climate change” and claiming that “severe weather is getting worse due to climate change”.

But those who are in the know and who have studied the California weather for decades know that this is no extraordinary event nor is it connected in any way to climate change it’s just a natural pattern this part of ocean cycles that have been going on for millennia.

So what's driving the El Nino aimed Jetstream pattern ?

Why the Sun of course

 

[Reality Check]

Yip! just some more natural phenomena ...

Just more climate science denial spam: Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has over 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or three.
Anthony Watts rants about his denial of climate science - global warming means more frequent extreme weather events such as the current California floods. We also have the idiocy of talking about hype in news reports rather than climate science ! Watts has a probable delusion about a "El Nino aimed Jetstream pattern" (no evidence is presented that El Nino changes jet stream patterns). What Watts is in denial of is really basic. El Nino is associated with warm ocean water. Warm sea water adds more water vapor to the air. When this hits land you get bigger rainfall and thus floods!

Followed by the usual idiocy: "its the Sun" delusion and an irrelevant graph of Greenland temperatures.

 

[CapelDodger]

So, it was semantic.

Perhaps "sophistic" is more appropriate. As we know, there are those who will argue that anything not supernatural is natural. They can't help it; it's in their nature.

 

[CapelDodger]

Haig, if you consult your list of Excuses For The Pause you'll find that mention of ENSO is an excuse, not an explanation.

Regarding the Pauses, as our resident expert can you tell us what the start-date of the latest one is? I hear that it's May '97 but haven't checked.

 

[Haig]

Perhaps "sophistic" is more appropriate. As we know, there are those who will argue that anything not supernatural is natural. They can't help it; it's in their nature.

I thought that was the warmist mantra saying that Co2 is supernatural

 

[CapelDodger]

.
Some good news for a change ..... According to Roy Spenser 2015 is only the third warmest year in the satellite record (since 1979), behind 1998 and 2010

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

At least I think it is good news .

I'm sure you take great comfort from it. If Spencer and Christy would reveal how they process their data to get their comforting results one might have some confidence in it. As it is, not so much.

Down here, where direct temperature measurements are taken, 2015 was way out in front, just as '98 was in its day. The difference is, of course, that 2015 started from a higher base due to the enhanced greenhouse effect and the passage of time.

 

[CapelDodger]

I thought that was the warmist mantra saying that Co2 is supernatural

Do expand. Not too much though. If you mean to deny the greenhouse effect just say it in so many words.

 

[aleCcowaN]

More silly posting from yours. At least you are not spamming the same wrong figures once and again but new wrong ones.

If you had the slightest education in the matters you're parroting on and improvising about you would have realised ice, solid rock and porous drenched rock have about the same thermal conductivity so your "Greenland ice core temperatures" are as related to an arcane warm period or an ice age as temperatures almost a mile down within the Earth crust are related with the actual global warming we experience now.

Among the myriads of things you don't know and don't care while you parade here your empty preach (which is the intellectual equivalent of hundreds of chalks scratching the blackboard) you have the fact that Greenland's ice sheet wouldn't exist if not built over a thick geologic shield. Look what 10 km less of thickness have done to Baffin and Ellesmere islands (besides their smaller area).

Try to make some sense this time.

Why don't you start by writing the definition of TSI and explaining it thoroughly?

 

[asydhouse]

Well here's a thought I hadn't had before!

If we do raise the global temperature to 6C above 20th century levels, the phytoplankton that generate two thirds of the free oxygen in our atmosphere will cease to function well, and we'll all suffocate.

Of course, when I say "we", I mean our descendants, so who cares about that, huh? Not Haig, that's obvious.

http://phys.org/news/2015-12-doomsday-revisited-deprive-oxygen.html

 

[macdoc]

Consequences

Drought and extreme heat events slashed cereal harvests in recent decades by 9% to 10% on average in affected countries -- and the impact of these weather disasters was greatest in the developed nations of North America, Europe and Australasia, according to a new study led by researchers from McGill University and the University of British Columbia.

At a time when global warming is projected to lead to more extreme weather, the study, published in Nature, provides the most comprehensive look yet at the influence of such events on crop area, yields and production around the world. The researchers analyzed national production data for 16 cereals in the 177 countries included in an international database of extreme weather disasters.

The impact from droughts grew larger in the period from 1985 to 2007, according to the study, which examined the effects of about 2,800 weather disasters from 1964 to 2007.

more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160106143021.htm

 

[macdoc]

Melting of massive ice 'lid' resulted in huge release of carbon dioxide at the end of the ice age

A new study reconstructing conditions at the end of the last ice age suggests that as the Antarctic sea ice melted, massive amounts of carbon dioxide that had been trapped in the ocean were released into the atmosphere.

The study includes the first detailed reconstruction of the Southern Ocean density of the period and identified how it changed as the Earth warmed. It suggests a massive reorganisation of ocean temperature and salinity, but finds that this was not the driver of increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge, is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The ocean is made up of different layers of varying densities and chemical compositions. During the last ice age, it was thought that the deepest part of the ocean was made up of very salty, dense water, which was capable of trapping a lot of CO2. Scientists believed that a decrease in the density of this deep water resulted in the release of CO2 from the deep ocean to the atmosphere.

However, the new findings suggest that although a decrease in the density of the deep ocean did occur, it happened much later than the rise in atmospheric CO2, suggesting that other mechanisms must be responsible for the release of CO2 from the oceans at the end of the last ice age.

more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160104163203.htm