Technical Analysis II

you're wasting your time here. who really cares what (a mostly very aged) and infinitesimally insignificant part of the internet thinks?
 
kevsta said:
you're wasting your time here. who really cares what (a mostly very aged) and infinitesimally insignificant part of the internet thinks?
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I agree. The recent post by The Don shows that evidence don't matter. For example I really don't see how I could improve on the apple forecasts, with stops and targets met.
But I will still make specific predictions on the thread for a permanent record in support of the OP. I will endeavour to call the end of this bear market when it happens. This may be helpful to someone. Very helpful.
 
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Samson said:
I agree. The recent post by The Don shows that evidence don't matter. For example I really don't see how I could improve on the apple forecasts, with stops and targets met.
But I will still make specific predictions on the thread for a permanent record in support of the OP. I will endeavour to call the end of this bear market when it happens. This may be helpful to someone. Very helpful.
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its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

Tumbleweed.gif
 
kevsta said:
its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

[qimg]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Tumbleweed.gif[/qimg]
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Yes, sadly true. In 4000 posts there was scant but ridicule hurled my way. When the trial was curtailed early, a circumstance that is impossible except with death in the real world, it would have made sense to tack the time on the end. No, that would never be suggested. When the trial ended with a 35% gain it was officially declared random. There have been a dozen other predictions that were all deadly accurate, and every means possible to dismiss them was employed.
If anyone would like to return to support this style of critical dismissal of serial proof of technical analysis being employed in real time to make predictions of market direction, they should be rigorous with examples from the thread.
But they will not attempt this, because it flies in the face of the facts.
I will take silence as acknowledgement of defeat.
 
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Samson said:
Yes, sadly true. In 4000 posts there was scant but ridicule hurled my way. When the trial was curtailed early, a circumstance that is impossible except with death in the real world, it would have made sense to tack the time on the end. No, that would never be suggested. When the trial ended with a 35% gain it was officially declared random. There have been a dozen other predictions that were all deadly accurate, and every means possible to dismiss them was employed.
If anyone would like to return to support this style of critical dismissal of serial proof of technical analysis being employed in real time to make predictions of market direction they should be rigorous with examples from the thread.
But they will not attempt this, because it flies in the face of the facts.
I will take silence as acknowledgement of defeat.
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:sdl::sdl::dl::sdl::sdl::dl::sdl::sdl:
 
Fast Eddie B said:
I'm still reading.

Then again, I can't help gawking at car wrecks, either.
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And happy new year to you Fast Eddie. I find your analysis less than comprehensive as well.
It is by no means too late to hedge. I would not want anyone to think I like this bear market, I am locked in like most people.
I see a chance of real downside monday, and shorting the pre market is sane strategy. What concerns me is I expect to be taken seriously by now, yet newcomers to the thread would read anyone but kevsta and conclude I must be a raving lunatic. This is grossly unjust on a forum of this one's purport.
 
Samson said:
I see a chance of real downside monday
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not a difficult conclusion to draw. ugly ugly weekly downbar, bigger than the Friday before the August Black Monday, and the biggest weekly drop, points-wise, ever. the last weeks selling was different to August though, that was more panicky and "crash-like" whereas last week was just steady pervasive selling with regular little bounces, that everybody sold into again.

I think we get something like this, however the indicated movement drawn could happen in the course of a day or a single week, leaving a single red downwards. my take profit is at 1865.

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sp-weekly-bar.png[/IMGW]

EDIT:

just to say that it's quite a turnaround from having Fed members taking turns to "stick-save" the market with comments and speeches the last couple of years every time it swooned, we now have ex-Fed members throwing each other under the bus instead, and admitting what every switched on trader has known for years, namely:

"that we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in March 2009"

"an enormous rally to facilitate a wealth effect"

"its all the Fed the Fed the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ..."

"values are very richly priced"

"the enormous gains the Fed engineered"
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnIYZiWlaUY

lol.

so I dont see any floor here really until at least the previous highs at around 1500, which is also exactly what the technicals have been suggesting the whole way through.

[IMGW=800]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/prophet.png[/IMGW]

at 1500 the Fed Panics and we get QE4, followed by a little rally and then full on collapse as the Dollar fails instead?
 
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kevsta said:
not a difficult conclusion to draw. ugly ugly weekly downbar, bigger than the Friday before the August Black Monday, and the biggest weekly drop, points-wise, ever. the last weeks selling was different to August though, that was more panicky and "crash-like" whereas last week was just steady pervasive selling with regular little bounces, that everybody sold into again.

I think we get something like this, however the indicated movement drawn could happen in the course of a day or a single week, leaving a single red downwards. my take profit is at 1865.

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sp-weekly-bar.png[/IMGW]

EDIT:

just to say that it's quite a turnaround from having Fed members taking turns to "stick-save" the market with comments and speeches the last couple of years every time it swooned, we now have ex-Fed members throwing each other under the bus instead, and admitting what every switched on trader has known for years, namely:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnIYZiWlaUY

lol.

so I dont see any floor here really until at least the previous highs at around 1500, which is also exactly what the technicals have been suggesting the whole way through.

[IMGW=800]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/prophet.png[/IMGW]

at 1500 the Fed Panics and we get QE4, followed by a little rally and then full on collapse as the Dollar fails instead?
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My dow target for monday is minimum 16000 and max 15500.

Your 1500 target is a 30% correction, which is roughly standard operating procedure in share markets. That is what I see for the dax. One thing for sure is the bottom will be characterised by the usual patterns.
 
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kevsta said:
its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

[qimg]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Tumbleweed.gif[/qimg]
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Yes, I don't comment too often on these posts. I know that by being silent, I run the risk that you might think I am a fool but I am reluctant to speak out and remove all doubt. ;)

FWIW, if I could replicate the Skeptica growth funds on the Plus500 trading site, I might be tempted to gamble some real money on it. I suspect however that it would be a 33/7 job. :(
 
psionl0 said:
Yes, I don't comment too often on these posts. I know that by being silent, I run the risk that you might think I am a fool but I am reluctant to speak out and remove all doubt. ;)
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you never even crossed my mind while writing this amigo, I'm thinking of the more vocal and opinionated critics earlier on, who have all gone strangely quiet. At least Eddie formally withdrew, the rest just skulked back to lurking instead of discussing kidneys.

with you, I am pretty confident that a) you will have gone off and studied the account stats, and b) you weren't trying to apply your years of "market wisdom" to a technical trading thread in the first place.

psionl0 said:
FWIW, if I could replicate the Skeptica growth funds on the Plus500 trading site, I might be tempted to gamble some real money on it. I suspect however that it would be a 33/7 job. :(
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Skeptica is doing OK, but I really think I may have found the sweet spot with (especially one in particular of) the Unobtainium accounts

this one http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unobtaninium/wildfire/1439014

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/wildfire.png[/IMGW]

I'll give you the myfxbook account link to the live one when it starts and you can watch it from birth.
 
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Ok so about time for another update.

So Skeptica ran into some difficulties coming into Xmas and drew down a bit, and as I had turned up the leverage on most of them (not growth or II) the drawdowns were comparatively larger than the wins until that point had been. But the trading systems managed to turn it around again over a couple of weeks and the funds are about back to where they were about 3 weeks ago. Not terrible, but not utterly awesome either.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/skeptica-week10.png[/IMGW]

awesome enough really though I suppose, as anybody taking ill-advised pair trades based upon the perceived fundamental fallacy that is TA, combined with the unstoppable prowess of the S&P500, is about -$15000 currently.

and anybody selling Apple at $120 and putting it into the LordOfTheAlgos VS 120AAPL fund would be currently +32% up and at $96.96 currently, able to buy back in at 1155 shares, from the original 833.


Unobtainium on the other hand is looking very promising indeed. the accounts stumbled slightly with Skeptica but then turned around fast and carried on climbing.

all five are now grouped between +25.5-36.3% and all five have now overtaken everything in Skeptica apart from Skeptica Growth, within five weeks.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/unobtainium-week5.png[/IMGW]

My Stocks portfolio is looking a bit sad though. were it not for the fact that I correctly identified Walmart as being a decent buy at $57 on 30th October it would be a bit of a bloodbath.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/no-brainers-again.png[/IMGW]

and with Stock-Slayer getting on with it's job nicely, high-tech TA has now outperformed "Buy & Hold" by +43.1% in 5 trading weeks.

FYI there are now in effect six separate trading systems here, as Skeptica is the same trade set, through different amplification (leverage, base account size) but Unobtainium has 5 unique combinations of traders and settings.

both accounts also now have systems approaching 500 trades (Skeptica II & Stock Slayer) at 69% and 73% win rates.

so is any of this better than random chance yet?
 
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heres me moaning about not getting any kind of intelligent participation and I missed this gem of a question in the last thread..

my apologies Ladewig.

kevsta said:
ok, assuming it does what it says on the box, therefore it should have a tick for tick (following) correlation to the USD Index, which is a weighted basket of currencies against the dollar because......?

edit. I have other questions about the way this works too. everybody knows you can trade this index alone right? so if you dropped a huge amount of contracts for sale and smashed the price down, how do the stocks contained therein, then get their own losses apportioned?
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Ladewig said:
I, too, must be missing something because my first question is How many contracts would one have to drop to make price swings on an underlying asset measured in the trillions?
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very interesting question, and surprisingly enough, not that many really, especially if you did it in Futures, outside main market hours.

you can smash it around like a rag doll if you have sufficient resources, which some people/companies clearly do

10k contracts is enough to flashcrash the market if you time it right

Nanex believe one errant algo can do it

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3410.html

Nanex ~ 20-Dec-2012 ~ Fiscal Cliff
On December 20, 2012, there was an Event in the EMini futures at 20:18:40 ET. The data exhibits many hallmarks of a HFT (High Frequency Trader) market maker absorbing sell orders up to their limit, and then turning around and dumping those contracts as fast as possible. Exactly what happened in the Flash Crash on May 6, 2010 (this documentary on youtube has a great explanation)
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so anyway, there is no doubt that it can be done, and outside of US stock market hours, while US stocks are closed, in pre-market, after-market, and main hours.

then the cash S&P opens at the Futures price, along with the stocks themselves which have yet to trade to catch up with their losses?

so again, how are the implied individual stock losses implied from the S&P index loss overnight, then apportioned?

clue: basically made up nonsense along the lines of the Fed's economic models, IMO
 
kevsta said:
I'm thinking of the more vocal and opinionated critics earlier on, who have all gone strangely quiet.
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I know that gravity sucks and all but being bothered about personifications of Newton's third law is the sort of stuff that thin skins are made out of. :cool:
 
psionl0 said:
I know that gravity sucks and all but being bothered about personifications of Newton's third law is the sort of stuff that thin skins are made out of. :cool:
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gravity? personifications of Bert & Ernie is more like it ;)
 
The technical picture looks pretty reasonable here for a few days, a little light buying of stocks seems sensible if anyone feels underexposed.
 
Samson said:
The technical picture looks pretty reasonable here for a few days, a little light buying of stocks seems sensible if anyone feels underexposed.
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As opposed to a "90% chance of a drop of 30%" ? It's almost as if you're making it up as you go along :rolleyes:
 
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