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FY2016 Market Predictions

Fast Eddie B said:
Thanks for those!

Even diversification doesn't help in some market environments.

Am I correct in assuming "Year To Date" means the last 365 days?
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No, "Year To Date" means since the start of the first trading day of the year. Since Jan. 1st is a holiday it hasn't yet started showing prices based on the first trading day of 2016. So these were basically the price changes for each calendar year.
 
My prediction:

The Central Scrutinizer said:
I predict it will go up.

Unless there are unforeseen circumstances, in which case it will go down.
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Actual results:

Puppycow said:
Here's how the prices of various things changed in 2015 and 2014. As you can see, a lot more things were down than up in 2015. Oil has had 2 bad years in a row.

And you can watch how these prices change in real time here:

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?relative_ytd.png&rev=634661939628125000
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Nailed it!
 
Puppycow said:
I worry about China.
Seems like oil should go up in 2016. But I can also think of reasons why it might not.
The Fed appears to be likely to start raising interest rates later this month. That should be negative for bonds. Meanwhile the ECB is going in the opposite direction, stomping on the gas at the same time as the Fed is pumping the brakes. Nowhere is inflation to be found. At least not in consumer prices.
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Guess I was right to be worried about China and wrong to think that oil would rebound although it's still only January.

The fed sure picked a hell of a time to start raising rates. Bond yields have actually gone down since they did that I believe.
 
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