Technical Analysis II

[Samson]

The fund I started to compete with kevsta's collection is up 12% with nothing running. The first deal was 4 december, which I didn't say much about because it resulted in a 32% hit, short dow cfds during the biggest rally since june. I will post the statement when more meaningful data is available.
I am still not sure how you validate your performance figures kevsta, though I am no stickler for real money to prove something. Mine does involve a modicum of hard cash.
Most of the deals are backed by screen captures on entry with the technical picture of the algorithm clearly visible.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

And so it begins....

 

[psionl0]

And so it begins continues....

ftfy.

 

[Samson]

And so it begins....

Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!

 

[kevsta]

Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!

for over-leverage you mean. to verify it for anybody else to see, (and for cutting edge analysis of your trading) hook it up to myfxbook.com

you need to supply them the platform investor pw (for read-only access) so they can log into your broker to downloads the latest account records, to be able to "verify" performance.

most platforms will also just print a statement out.

 

[Samson]

for over-leverage you mean. to verify it for anybody else to see, (and for cutting edge analysis of your trading) hook it up to myfxbook.com

you need to supply them the platform investor pw (for read-only access) so they can log into your broker to downloads the latest account records, to be able to "verify" performance.

most platforms will also just print a statement out.

Yes saxo has all the data, trade logs, statements, account summaries. Unfortunately no browser will work at present on that computer.
Surely a screen capture verifies performance?

 

[kevsta]

depends on what you mean by verified I suppose. ..perhaps you could extract all the info and (re)compile a nice Excel spreadsheet or something

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!

Not what I was referring to. Sit back and watch...

 

[kevsta]

Happy Fed Day everybody. statistically a very good day for stocks

 

[Samson]

Happy Fed Day everybody. statistically a very good day for stocks

We are long dow, scenic route as always despite technical analysis saying it is a buy.

ETA and accordingly the account is currently up 45%, yet went to above 100% margin on the journey.

 

[kevsta]

ETA and accordingly the account is currently up 45%, yet went to above 100% margin on the journey.

what do you mean by this? that you were so over-levered that you got to within a percent or 2 of a margin-call account liquidation?

if so, I predict this is not going to end well.

 

[Samson]

what do you mean by this? that you were so over-levered that you got to within a percent or 2 of a margin-call account liquidation?

if so, I predict this is not going to end well.

I am not sure about that. Here is the statement for this tiny account. It exists solely for this thread with a nominal NZ dollar amount.

 

[kevsta]

I am not sure about that. Here is the statement for this tiny account. It exists solely for this thread with a nominal NZ dollar amount.

maybe I misunderstood what you said, its definitely possible..

but with the account low at $775, if at that time you were over-levered on a big position running the wrong way against you, say using ($300?) as margin, if the operating P&L balance falls below -475 (dep on individual broker policies) the account will suddenly liquidate to zero on you..

be careful, sounds like you may have gotten close before the market turned for you, this time..

 

[Samson]

maybe I misunderstood what you said, its definitely possible..

but with the account low at $775, if at that time you were over-levered on a big position running the wrong way against you, say using ($300?) as margin, if the operating P&L balance falls below -475 (dep on individual broker policies) the account will suddenly liquidate to zero on you..

be careful, sounds like you may have gotten close before the market turned for you, this time..

It is only a bit of fun for the thread.
I am more interested in continuing to make real world predictions from technical analysis. For example apple stock is 106 with the target for shorts being 105, and I expect this to overshoot on monday. It is a little unfortunate I am talking to myself about real world trades which could help people with their portfolios.

 

[kevsta]

It is only a bit of fun for the thread.

yes but you still dont want to blow it up, can't you trade at smaller size?

I am more interested in continuing to make real world predictions from technical analysis. For example apple stock is 106 with the target for shorts being 105, and I expect this to overshoot on monday. It is a little unfortunate I am talking to myself about real world trades which could help people with their portfolios.

indeed. Apple push 2 down its new weekly channel (completed? underway anyway) this week.. ..and I dont know about you, but most of the TA world are looking at a huge head & shoulders on the weekly now, aren't they?

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/apple-push2.png[/IMGW]

so what with all the work launching the hedge fund its been a little while since I looked at Apple. Short - Medium term Bearish IMO.

Momentum is also gathering / accelerating on the downside across all timeframes, once the algos switch to net short watch out below for a while, this was a heavily played Momo stock all the way up.

not so sure about going long at 107 now, as it didn't happen before 120 (ie Samson's stoploss) and the subsequent top-out / roll-over.

107.00 which Samson picked as his stop level is also just above a big liquidity level (not marked) at the 102 area, making it very likely we would visit there again first before any major push higher, but I think its more likely to run a couple more pushes down the newly formed weekly downtrend channel something like as marked out here.
[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/apple-weekly.png[/IMGW]

when QE3 was launched it was around the $80 mark, technically I would say it also looks quite likely to be revisiting there again in the next year or so, unless of course I am among the 8% of economists who have the faintest idea (once again)

of course any Fed announcement of no hike / dovish downgrades / QE4 will immediately negate the above prediction, and all short bets are off again.

well, they actually finally raised, and at a close of $105.80 from a most recent all time high of $134.40 that's -21% and so this has now entered a full technical bear market?

it closed there once before back in August, so technically you could say it started there, but the Fed stick-save (not raising in Sept) saved it then, and they can no longer do that on every swoon, so I think we are Bear-On now.

edit. apparently it's official now. looks like "the news did get sold" ultimately?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/12/18/apple-bear-market-aapl/77560080/

Apple crashes into bear market: $160B gone!

Apple (AAPL) diehards who keep saying the stock "will come back" are going into hibernation today.

Shares of the gadget maker closed down another 2.7% Friday to $106.03 — knocking the stock down 21% from its recent high of $134.54. The breathtaking decline not only puts Apple into a bear market - defined by a 20% drop — but has obliterated a staggering $160 billion in shareholder wealth from the top.

Just to put that into perspective, Apple's $160 billion decline is larger than 477 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are worth. A drop this big is the financial equivalent of wiping out the market value of entire companies like Pepsico (PEP) at $146 billion, International Business Machines (IBM) at $133 billion or Nike (NKE) at $111 billion.

Seeing such a massive decline in Apple carries more weight than a similar decline in any other stock would. Apple is still worth more than any other U.S. company — making it the most important stock in market measures like the S&P 500. Apple also is the most widely held stock by individual investors, says Sigfig, so the decline directly hits home.

 

[Samson]

yes but you still dont want to blow it up, can't you trade at smaller size?



indeed. Apple push 2 down its new weekly channel (completed? underway anyway) this week.. ..and I dont know about you, but most of the TA world are looking at a huge head & shoulders on the weekly now, aren't they?

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/apple-push2.png[/IMGW]



well, they actually finally raised, and at a close of $105.80 from a most recent all time high of $134.40 that's -21% and so this has now entered a full technical bear market?

it closed there once before back in August, so technically you could say it started there, but the Fed stick-save (not raising in Sept) saved it then, and they can no longer do that on every swoon, so I think we are Bear-On now.

edit. apparently it's official now. looks like "the news did get sold" ultimately?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/12/18/apple-bear-market-aapl/77560080/

Technical analysis often reveals truths which are most unwelcome to buy and hold disciples. That is why I don't trade shares on my own account, there is no point. The 20% decline that is underway in the markets generally is much more fun to trade by shorting the indices. But the audience seems to have disappeared for the meantime. The fun is when technical analysts are wrong.

 

[kevsta]

Technical analysis often reveals truths which are most unwelcome to buy and hold disciples. That is why I don't trade shares on my own account, there is no point. The 20% decline that is underway in the markets generally is much more fun to trade by shorting the indices. But the audience seems to have disappeared for the meantime. The fun is when technical analysts are wrong.

Shorting Apple is much the same as the main indices anyway, given it's high weightings. I was actually short it (AAPL) last week, I managed to hold it overnight once, but closed late Friday as I am very dubious about holding stocks trades because of the absurd gaps every open.

I am still short the S&P from last week, I caught it from 2075 again, closed at 2028, and then took it again at exactly the same place, but half size a few hours later. stoploss is at break-even now.

If it gaps down at open I may close it, and reverse long for a bounce. if it gaps up, I will add to the short position. if it opens without gapping I'll leave it alone and hope for an Asian inspired downdraft overnight.

[IMGW=800]http://pepperstone.ctrader.com/images/screens/hhwJn.png[/IMGW]

and I'm still short EURUSD from early last week, its 200 odd pips up (+4%) and stoploss at breakeven, but I'm hoping for a full re-trace of the Draghi spike back to the 105's again ideally, for a 12-ish % account win.

[IMGW=800]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/short-euro.png[/IMGW]

RE the S&P and stocks generally, I do think there's bears lurking in them there woods now, and Im pretty confident we're not finished with first 1800, then 1568 here either.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/sp-qe.png[/IMGW]

this is an interesting view, its failed both the main channel, and then the support zone, and now looks to have re-tested from the underside and failed again..?

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/sp-pitchfork-fail.png[/IMGW]

 

[kevsta]

WTI .. is also at historic GFC crisis monthly closing lows, and closed near the lows of the day, having already run the stops below the line once in the NY session and again later in the afternoon. The selling has reached historically extreme levels, its way heavier than at the depths of the GFC now and sentiment is terrible. hence bounce? we'll see.

if the price gaps down at open I will be dipping my toes on a long position immediately, and maybe without a gap anyway, as even a small bounce from here on the monthly scale could easily run up to $44 before turning down again, if so. but its holidays - usually quieter and closed markets from next week, (but sometimes big price moves because of thin trading volume too) so it would need to run into a decent profit this coming week before I would hold it over the holidays.

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/oil.png[/IMGW]

 

[Samson]

I was also short the weekend and sold the gap up, I expect at least some selling later.

 

[Samson]

The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.