Technical Analysis II

Samson said:
I might add as suggested earlier, there is a huge opportunity right now to partially hedge any physical exposure. 401's and so on.
Market pullbacks do happen, and why be a marionette?
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its part of the buy and hoping game. wait it out for 5 or 10 years with claims of only a long term interest in portfolio value.
 
kevsta said:
its part of the buy and hoping game. wait it out for 5 or 10 years with claims of only a long term interest in portfolio value.
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kevsta, you are a bastion of hope for those who bought nikkei in 1990, and never realised they should have bought dow 30. The latter live the life of riley with their prescience yet the former are homeless and desperate. You may give all hope to a better way to level this playing field with technical analysis helping all to a quasi insurance style hedge.
 
Samson said:
On the technical picture I observe, there are no immediate precedents in the last few decades for this long term sideways action to be shrugged off and the bull market to resume. What is true is that the Americans lead the free world and must be accorded respect. An unregulated labour market seems to separate American growth prospects from Europe and Australia. Therefore while I am confident a market pullback for a year or so is happening, I would still back your country to recover first.
Meanwhile, back to TA......
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Is that a yes or no?
 
here's another one made by Mr Elliott and his prophet. interesting in that it gives both level and time predictions.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/prophet.png[/IMGW]
 
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kevsta said:
here's another one made by Mr Elliott and his prophet. interesting in that it gives both level and time predictions.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/prophet.png[/IMGW]
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I can't agree there is enough history to suggest that (nor do you I am sure).
Elliot wave is just a way of describing a truism of market up legs and down legs. Many disciples had nothing to show for the seminars they attended but a beautiful set of german manufactured dividers with the magic numbers like point six one eight inscribed and sectioned.
 
Samson said:
I can't agree there is enough history to suggest that (nor do you I am sure).
Elliot wave is just a way of describing a truism of market up legs and down legs. Many disciples had nothing to show for the seminars they attended but a beautiful set of german manufactured dividers with the magic numbers like point six one eight inscribed and sectioned.
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I wouldn't be too surprised to see something like this happen, although Im not vouching for EW generally. The S&P def looks like its coming back to the (blue) 200ma in the next few years, and the next major (monthly view) liquidity level is around 1500-1580. it's also more over-extended now (away from the 200ma) than it was at the height of the bubble in 06, and at the depths of the lows in 09. this will definitely be mean reverting at some point.

edit, theres also this http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/massive-insider-selling-spurs-stock-market-concerns.html

Corporate insiders have been selling their shares at near-record levels, and according to some, this could be a sign for outside investors to start selling as well.

Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider selling reached $7.6 billion for the month of November, the fourth-highest monthly level on record. For some this may be an alarming indicator, as corporate insiders tend to have more knowledge than public shareholders on the inner workings of the company, and what may drive stock prices up or down.

"Historically when insiders are selling heavily it's not the greatest sign," TrimTabs' chief executive, David Santschi, told CNBC in a phone interview Wednesday. "I'm surprised given the valuations in the market that they're not selling more than they are."
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and this, neither look particularly good http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/134898213385/a-whole-lot-of-new-lows-for-a-market-near-its

While the major indexes remain within arm’s length of their 52-week high, the number of stocks hitting new lows is piling up.
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kevsta said:
I wouldn't be too surprised to see something like this happen, although Im not vouching for EW generally. The S&P def looks like its coming back to the (blue) 200ma in the next few years, and the next major (monthly view) liquidity level is around 1500-1580. it's also more over-extended now (away from the 200ma) than it was at the height of the bubble in 06, and at the depths of the lows in 09. this will definitely be mean reverting at some point.
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Well yes, and this problem is inherent in the sideways movement. It would be elegant to suggest the natural move is up after consolidating, but price history does not show this tends to happen. 2008 was when Buffet could say something interesting and he did. Essentially, buy the sonofabitch.
 
Samson said:
Well yes, and this problem is inherent in the sideways movement. It would be elegant to suggest the natural move is up after consolidating, but price history does not show this tends to happen. 2008 was when Buffet could say something interesting and he did. Essentially, buy the sonofabitch.
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technically it looks like a dead cert short to me (on the monthly). were it not for the extreme and unprecedented conditions we are currently in (for 7 years lol) i would be pretty confident, however it's Fed day again on the 16th and a big surprise there would likely mean new highs again fairly quickly, so as ever its a 50/50 based on central planners mouths imo.

I just closed half my S&P short at 2010 (60pts) and the other half stop at +20pts and looking for more before a reversal.

however if it sells down hard at close I may close out and buy the open for the bounce, this has been pretty reliable the last few times it closed out a week on a big downdraft over the last 2 months.
 
kevsta said:
technically it looks like a dead cert short to me (on the monthly). were it not for the extreme and unprecedented conditions we are currently in (for 7 years lol) i would be pretty confident, however it's Fed day again on the 16th and a big surprise there would likely mean new highs again fairly quickly, so as ever its a 50/50 based on central planners mouths imo.

I just closed half my S&P short at 2010 (60pts) and the other half stop at +20pts and looking for more before a reversal.

however if it sells down hard at close I may close out and buy the open for the bounce, this has been pretty reliable the last few times it closed out a week on a big downdraft over the last 2 months.
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This looks a little shaping for a blackish monday. I am staying short for the weekend looking to 3 to 4 hundred down during monday trading. This ain't looking pretty....
 
Skeptica weeks 5-6. 284/399 trades = 71% win. 6 down days / 34 days trading.

The funds started the week with drawdowns which recovered for the first 2 days of the week, and giving a little growth, but which pulled back to just about flat again (av +0.49% across all accounts) and then (as "second guessed" last week) ran straight into the heaviest equity drawdowns so far.

the increased leverage applied to the losses, also increased the maximum running drawdowns across most of the accounts, making the widgets (equity) graphs look quite concerning currently. however assuming the trade set continues profitable, we should see rapid recovery as the increased leverage works on the way up too.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/skepticaweek6.png[/IMGW]

UnObtainium weeks 2-3 combined total account trades 560/710 = 79% win.

..a monster second week for the 4 main funds, which put in an (average total) gain of just over +10% from 15.33% to 23.37 ..once again, down-days are looking rare, (to be expected at 80% trade win rate?) and notably Wildfire has not had one at all yet, still pushing up, while the others draw back.

..this is becoming more interesting now, as this account has different combinations of traders on each fund, so each produces entirely different results per fund. some more closely model the Skeptica 4's performance, (plus and/or minus certain traders) and others behaving quite differently from Skeptica at times. but because it is not one fixed trade set that all accounts take at their own position sizes (like Skeptica) so trade win rate is unique to each fund, so I will focus on only the total win rate on reporting, where my (by design) long term target goal is 80% +/- 1% win rate across all 5 funds.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/unobtainiumweek6.png[/IMGW]

Another not-so-good week for people taking misguided pair trades based on ye olde perceived market wisdoms. :D

The (renamed) LordOfTheAlgos account turns one month old at +14.36% (pls note image says 14.86 incorrectly, so deduct 0.5% from total trade) Apple rolled over again back to $113, (turning at the top of it's channel) so more negative P&L on the "buy side" brings us to a running total of +20.16% at the one month point (10 Nov) and which at AAPL $113.20 now gives us the ability to buy back 1014 shares (from our original 833) or 1000 and pocket the extra 14 x $113.20 = $1584

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/applevslordmonth1.png[/IMGW]

and with the S&P currently (40-ish pts) red on the year again, and at approx 9% up from beginning of 2014, all 10 accounts have now (currently) outperformed it since then.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/sppair.png[/IMGW]

My stocks portfolio has slumped to -3.7%
Stock Slayer is at +21.57%
Total trade +25.27% after 2 weeks trading.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/yeoldes.png[/IMGW]

Yay at TA systematically extracting profits across 18FX pairs while stocks flounder around in their random walk :D
 
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Why is this thread no longer about technical analysis? It's great that one can look at charts and draw intuitive conclusions, but it is going nowhere. If I were king, and I know I'm not, most of this thread would be transferred to kevsta's graphs depository stock market thread.
 
Maurice Ledifficile said:
Why is this thread no longer about technical analysis? It's great that one can look at charts and draw intuitive conclusions, but it is going nowhere. If I were king, and I know I'm not, most of this thread would be transferred to kevsta's graphs depository stock market thread.
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how is it not about technical analysis? what exactly do you think is behind the 6 separate trading systems providing trades into the 10 x test accounts?

technical analysis is providing the 10x climbing lines, like it or not

you just miss the good old days of mocking Samson and talking nonsense about kidneys instead for 30 pages do you?
 
kevsta said:
how is it not about technical analysis? what exactly do you think is behind the 6 separate trading systems providing trades into the 10 x test accounts?

technical analysis is providing the 10x climbing lines, like it or not

you just miss the good old days of mocking Samson and talking nonsense about kidneys instead for 30 pages do you?
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There is no evidence of technical analysis. Just silly chart after silly chart.

Again, your inspiration can come from anywhere you wish. No reason to believe it has anything to do with TA. No one has made a logical case, let alone prove anything.
 
Maurice Ledifficile said:
There is no evidence of technical analysis. Just silly chart after silly chart.

Again, your inspiration can come from anywhere you wish. No reason to believe it has anything to do with TA. No one has made a logical case, let alone prove anything.
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"silly chart after silly chart" :rolleyes:

sillier than all that kidney nonsense you all loved so much? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

CLICK. THE. LINKS. STUDY. THE. EVIDENCE

Skeptica main page


UnObtainium main page


comment on the actual evidence and I wont have to continually post screenshots of it, will I?
 
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here's some more evidence. in screenshot form, as you obviously cannot access my account control panel.

two weeks ago when I was constructing stock slayer, this was the trading system management view. the trading systems are blanked out, but note the theoretical daily growth the account was predicted to deliver.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/slayer-hypothetical.png[/IMGW]

then go here and note the daily growth at 10 trading days in (box top left) - 182 trades@ 76% win rate. ..all coincidence however, I am sure :rolleyes:

this test is also endlessly repeatable. from what I have already posted in this thread, I could certainly reverse engineer and identify which trading systems delivered which trades to my accounts in a few hours, and with the settings shown here, you could rebuild stock-slayer exactly, and launch it again (new) every day for the next six months if you wanted to.

if anybody wants to reconstruct it in their own name (and I think you are worth a reply) PM me and I'll tell you all six trading systems, which are on which accounts, and possibly even settings. (or I may instead dismiss you with much private ridicule depending on your performance here thus far)
 
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