Is climate change behind the storm that flooded parts of the UK?
The army has been deployed and tens of thousands of homes across Scotland and the north of England are without power after Storm Desmond dumped torrential rain across the area, causing major flooding.
Early figures suggest there was a record-breaking downpour of rain as 340 millimetres fell in 24 hours in the Lake District, breaking a record of 316.4mm set in 2009.
It’s too soon to know whether the storm can be attributed to climate change, but green groups point out it is just what the UK will expect to see more of as the planet warms.
Drawing a link with climate change is difficult, since the British climate has always been variable, says David Ramsbottom of HR Wallingford, a consultancy that advises the UK government on flood defences.
For example, the first half of the 20th century was much wetter than the second. “But the current wisdom is that storminess is increasing and therefore these types of events are likely to increase,” he says.
Part of the story
“It is impossible to say that a particular flood event is or isn’t caused by climate change,” says Seth Westra at the University of Adelaide in Australia. “But climate change does appear to be making the heavy rainfall events that cause floods more frequent and intense, and so should be considered to be part of the story.”
Ramsbottom says the UK needs to improve its warning systems and awareness, and make sure new developments are flood resistant.
But many people in flood-prone areas won’t be protected from extreme events, even with bolstered defences.
“I guess the point will come, if this trend continues, that some places will not be liveable in,” Ramsbottom says “We know already that quite a lot of people don’t have insurance because they’ve been flooded before, and therefore those people are facing a catastrophe.”
This echoes messages heard after the 2013-2014 floods that affected large parts of the UK , when
hydrologists and engineers told New Scientist that the UK needed to consider the possibility of retreating to higher ground.
