Technical analysis

[Samson]

Listen, I apologise to all concerned if my posts and or tone are being perceived as gloating or snarky. they are all supposed to be in good humour.

However continued silence and/or dodging of the fundamental questions and or evidence on display, will generally lead to ever-more sarcastic delivery of the evidence until there is some response.

if "leaving the thread" is that response, well, that is unfortunately necessary.

As the sole representative of the statement: "Yes it IS possible" for the last couple of weeks, it is my internet "duty" to represent the modern high-tech world of leveraged trading in it's best light, for posters on the thread, and the lurking world at large, that is what I have attempted to do.

If people are going to interject with their market "truisms" on the one hand dismissing any form of trading as "woo" while on the other hand claiming credit themselves for being "canny investors" (in a permanently rising market for 30 years) and openly recommend their own strategies and stocks in the thread as a better option, then those assumptions should be tested, no?

If people want to start addressing the evidence with sensible observations or questions, I will be happy to tone down the "humour" however if people are going to continuously take the "we know better than you" approach, ignoring any evidence to the contrary, then mocking with ongoing evidence may continue.

kevsta, you are a cool cat.

 

[kevsta]

Skeptica Trader Stats

one of the reasons I have been pressing the question regarding "above chance win rates on an ongoing basis", is because of all the unknown variables whilst setting up the Skeptica funds pre-launch, in my mind one of the most predictable (from past performance) moving forwards, looked to be win rate.

this is because my highest volume (by trade numbers) trading feed has a similar win rate for the duration of its account lifetime (multi-thousands of trades) and the others were not so far off either, to within 5 or 10% either side.

therefore merging them *should* continue to give a similar (weighted) mean avg hit rate?

the only data on this system that is not visible to you, that is to me, is the individual trader performance, so this is what the 5 full weeks of Skeptica II (the full dataset) of trades looks like by individual trader contribution at this point. (avg 72% currently)

account link https://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevsta/skeptica-ii/1413878

and this is what the Skeptica+1 team on the Stock Slayer fund did last week (avg 78%)

account link http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unobtaninium/stock-slayer-aggressive-growth/1439031

obviously the output numbers vary, but as with any positive tradeset, the actual percentage gains are entirely determined and/or only limited by the base fund amount x the leverage involved.

the accounts are all showing a decent drawdown currently though, even though equity is still at all time highs, its 5-10% below the booked out balance (dep on acc leverage) and obviously cannot continue to accelerate up ever faster anyway, so I will be interested to see if we book the first down-week this week. presumably there has to be a few somewhere.

only another 3 hours or so until the markets open and the boys all go to work again

 

[kevsta]

UnObtainium Widgets

I just put them up on my profile here for easy tracking, along with the Skeptica ones from Nov.

Samson, if you are aiming at competing with the Unobtainium funds, this is your target



clicking the widget takes you to the account analytics page

 

[Samson]

I just put them up on my profile here for easy tracking, along with the Skeptica ones from Nov.

Samson, if you are aiming at competing with the Unobtainium funds, this is your target



clicking the widget takes you to the account analytics page

I will wipe the floor with unobtainium (I hope it's a reasonably inexpensive cleaning product) but I am having computer issues. I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now...

ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.

This thread has gotten too long. A continuation thread is here.

Posted By: kmortis