Technical analysis

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kevsta said:
and at which point I really will vanish forever, because nobody here actually wants nor deserves to know.
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Deal!

But to assuage our curiosity, will you at least check in with us periodically? Maybe when you've doubled or tripled your original investment? Or decided that for whatever reason it did not go as planned.

If you just "go quietly into that goodnight", I will simply assume the latter, as will I think most rational members here.
 
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Fast Eddie B said:
Deal!

But to assuage our curiosity, will you at least check in with us periodically? Maybe when you've doubled or tripled your original investment? Or decided that for whatever reason it did not go as planned.

If you just "go quietly into that goodnight", I will simply assume the latter, as will I think most rational members here.
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to be honest I could not care less what you assume, or think others might.
 
kevsta said:
a) back to the OP. IS IT POSSIBLE?
b) if it continues testing positively in Dec it will be going live in January.

and at which point I really will vanish forever, because nobody here actually wants nor deserves to know.

Otherwise, back to some more nonsense unrelated quotes or gambling fallacies or something
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I hope you will stick around a while longer in spite of the negativity you receive around here. I still like reading your posts.

I try but I don't really understand what you are doing. Skeptica seems to be doing well but it is still early days.

If you were to put just $100 of your own money into your analysis then that would blunt all criticism. At worst you lose $100 but that seems unlikely ATM. It doesn't seem like any more work would be involved but it's your choice.
 
psionl0 said:
I hope you will stick around a while longer in spite of the negativity you receive around here. I still like reading your posts.

I try but I don't really understand what you are doing. Skeptica seems to be doing well but it is still early days.
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do you mean you don't understand how the Skeptica funds are trading?

the system is a fully automated next generation "trade mirroring" service

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_trading

The mirror trading method allows traders in financial markets to select a trading strategy and to automatically “mirror” the trades executed by the selected strategies in the trader's brokerage account.[1]

Traders can select strategies that match their personal trading preferences, such as risk tolerance and past profits. Once a strategy has been selected, all the signals sent by the strategy will be automatically applied to the client’s brokerage account. No intervention is required by the client as all the account activity is controlled by the platform.

Clients may trade one or more strategies concurrently. This enables the trader to diversify their risk while maintaining trading control of their account.
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from the list of 50+ trading systems here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade I spent some time researching their individual track records and picked 4 that looked likely to complement each other, when used together.

each trading system there is a stand-alone, real money live account, trading for itself, but just supplying an external feed of its trades to anybody using it.

but a diversified (and size balanced) blend of trades from multiple trading systems should hopefully give an overall smoother journey, and less vulnerability to any single trader issues than using just one feed.

psionl0 said:
If you were to put just $100 of your own money into your analysis then that would blunt all criticism. At worst you lose $100 but that seems unlikely ATM. It doesn't seem like any more work would be involved but it's your choice.
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minimum account size is $1000 but the safest (taking into account leverage) size (gain/drawdown) appears to be around the $5k mark minimum, so if it goes ahead, it will be thereabouts.
 
kevsta said:
minimum account size is $1000 but the safest (taking into account leverage) size (gain/drawdown) appears to be around the $5k mark minimum, so if it goes ahead, it will be thereabouts.
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A $5000 grubstake would probably have you thinking twice if there was more than a negligible chance of you losing it all.

Crowd funding anyone? :D
 
psionl0 said:
A $5000 grubstake would probably have you thinking twice if there was more than a negligible chance of you losing it all.

Crowd funding anyone? :D
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$5k should be a trivial amount of money if a person actually has confidence in their scheme. If I had any faith at all I'd advance it myself.
 
The Don said:
$5k should be a trivial amount of money if a person actually has confidence in their scheme. If I had any faith at all I'd advance it myself.
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it is indeed, I could go 10x that size. ten of them would probably make more sense. however as you would probably also agree, it would be reckless for anybody to jump into anything without proper testing first, so perhaps you can all watch that, along with me for the next month, instead of demanding that a test can only be valid if somebody first funds the numbers you are watching move?

as none of this applied to whether Samson's "test" would be entertained here, did it?

Day 1, Month 2, and they are still pushing on..

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/month2.png[/IMGW]

Adman your pair trade has turned negative P&L. ..despite giving you a 60 pt BTFD bounce headstart, Skeptica has hauled it's psychic ass from 3.43% to 7.94% and overtaken you.

buy S&P 2025 => 2090 = 65pts x $50 = +$3250
sell 10 Skeptica 798 - 343 = -$4550
Floating P&L = -$1300

from 06 Nov, the S&P now needs to hit new highs at 2237 to catch up with 3 weeks trading, (on the safest base fund)


Eddie.. AAPL still hanging around 118. Your fund is at +7.07% = +$7070

Apple now needs to get back to $128.53 to catch up.

I also thought it might be a bit unfair picking on just Apple, and so opened a $100k portfolio on Finviz at Friday's close prices, AAPL, TSLA & WMT equally weighted, for easier ongoing comparison purposes

Yesterday didn't go so well though..

[IMGW=800]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/eddie.png[/IMGW]

at exactly the same time I started a new 100k aggressive growth account, with which to wipe the floor with these random-walking stocks over the next year.

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/stock-slayer-aggressive-growth/1439031

this one is not concerned with smoothness or limiting draw down size (not something stock owners can really care about either, with huge multi-dollar gaps around on many days, is it?) ..but should produce high growth over time
 
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kevsta said:
it is indeed, I could go 10x that size. ten of them would probably make more sense. however as you would probably also agree, it would be reckless for anybody to jump into anything without proper testing first, so perhaps you can all watch that, along with me for the next month, instead of demanding that a test can only be valid if somebody first funds the numbers you are watching move?
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That sounds entirely sensible.
 
for the purposes of full declaration (and no "cherry-picking" ;) ) Skeptica also now has a sister fund comprised of more tuned, experimental and aggressive accounts launched over the course of the last week, (21st, 26th & 30th Nov) including the 100k Stock Slayer fund from yesterday morning


UnObtaniumSquared and its 5 funds can be found here

this brings my total to two separate accounts, both with the maximum 5 funds each in them. so 10 separate funds have now been hooked onto this base trade feed over the course of a month.

but this latest set of five accounts have extra trading systems and much higher internal leverage employed than the Skeptica funds.

if I open any more I will tell you.
 
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Big day for Skeptica today, the total fund passed +10% total AUM as Randi's Million climbed to +10.7% and Skeptica II pushed through +20% while Skeptica Growth closed a fraction under +30%.

The complete Skeptica trade set is now 213 wins /305 trades taken = 70% win rate, with 21 up days, and 5 down days. The last 9 days in a row have all closed up on the day before.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/dec2.png[/IMGW]

Adman - bad news, Skeptica is now +8.89%

Short 10x Skeptica => 889-343 = -5460
Buy S&P @ 2025=> 2079 = +2700

Total Floating P&L . = -$2760 just let me know when you're ready to admit that voodoo and entrails are kicking "Buy & Hold hope the Indices" ass ;)

otherwise S&P needs to get to 2125 to break even again and 2175.6 to match the (safest, slowest, base) fund, since 06 November.

Eddie ..Good News - along with Randi your fund also made more new highs today +8.78%

At $108780 (833x) AAPL now needs to get back to $130.49 to catch up with 3.5 weeks trading.

In fact AAPL closed down again at $116.28, -$3.72 from your bailout price (x833) = - 3098.76

running P&L 8780+3098 = +$11878 or +11.88%

my stocks portfolio bounced barely into the green, then sank to - 1.24% again.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/portfolio.png[/IMGW]

meanwhile it's new counterpart, Stock-Slayer Aggressive is living up to its name with a daily performance of approx +1.5% closing the 2nd day at +2.98%

Equiv total P&L = +4.22%

If you look at the daily growth figures on the Unobtainium funds compared to Skeptica, you will see that they pick up about where Skeptica Growth leaves off. this is because they are employing anywhere from 20-100% more internal leverage than the Skeptica funds.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/unobtainium-week1.png[/IMGW]

I dont know about you lot but I could swear Im beginning to see a pattern here in this randomness..

kinda bottom left, to top right? anyone else seeing it yet?
 
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kevsta said:
Adman your pair trade has turned negative P&L. ..despite giving you a 60 pt BTFD bounce headstart, Skeptica has hauled it's psychic ass from 3.43% to 7.94% and overtaken you.

buy S&P 2025 => 2090 = 65pts x $50 = +$3250
sell 10 Skeptica 798 - 343 = -$4550
Floating P&L = -$1300

from 06 Nov, the S&P now needs to hit new highs at 2237 to catch up with 3 weeks trading, (on the safest base fund)
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What "pair trade"? I specifically said I wouldn't agree to any kind of short-term bet, that I think it is entirely possible for technical analysis methods to do well over relatively short periods like the ones you are looking at purely by chance--just like rolling a die or flipping a coin--and that I would only be impressed by TA methods if they could consistently beat the market over the medium to long term.

So please stop disingenuously pretending that I agreed to your silly games.
 
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AdMan said:
What "pair trade"? I specifically said I wouldn't agree to any kind of short-term bet, that I think it is entirely possible for technical analysis methods to do well over relatively short periods like the ones you are looking at purely by chance--just like rolling a die or flipping a coin--and that I would only be impressed by TA methods if they could consistently beat the market over the medium to long term.

So please stop disingenuously pretending that I agreed to your silly games.
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nope. if you are going to make statements relating to the broad OP, like this:

AdMan said:
Buy and hold an index fund that tracks the broad market and you will do better over time than virtually anyone trying to time it, whether they're basing their strategies on TA and fancy Excel algorithms running on banks of computers or reading animal entrails to predict where it's going.
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..as though they are fact, they are going to get tested. over how much time?

when will you admit you need to look closer? the accounts will just run and run. one year? two? five?

you can modify your statement if you like, or the pair trade that proves you wrong will continue ;)
 
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AdMan said:
I specifically said I wouldn't agree to any kind of short-term bet, that I think it is entirely possible for technical analysis methods to do well over relatively short periods like the ones you are looking at purely by chance--just like rolling a die or flipping a coin--and that I would only be impressed by TA methods if they could consistently beat the market over the medium to long term.

So please stop disingenuously pretending that I agreed to your silly games.
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I second that.

Any gloating over how much "better" some particular algorithm/strategy is doing over a term of days, weeks or months, as opposed to simply investing in Apple, let's say, SO misses the difference between speculating and long term investing that it's not worth responding to.

Which is why I've gone pretty much silent in this thread - kevsta's charts and lines are simply boring.

But I would not want any recent participant in this thread to assume I'm engaged in any sort of "contest" here - I'm not.
 
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there are a lot of points being missed around here, but not by me.

there are also a lot of blanket statements trotted out in ignorance that are demonstrably false.

the reason you have gone silent is because ongoing evidence has stumped you, (apart from the standard periodic fallbacks in such cases) as you do in every thread where this happens.

the tests will go on regardless of whether any of you have the cahooneys to put even your VIRTUAL moneyz on the line to back up your statements.

as none of you have the required cahooneys I just assigned a few tests for you that involve no compiling, spreadsheets or ludicrous commission calculations

anyone would have thought you would be glad to be educated to the possibilities in such an analytical statistically verifiable fashion.

some people.
 
Fast Eddie B said:
I second that.

Any gloating over how much "better" some particular algorithm/strategy is doing over a term of days, weeks or months, as opposed to simply investing in Apple, let's say, SO misses the difference between speculating and long term investing that it's not worth responding to.
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talking about investing at all in a TA thread SO misses the point. but we have humored your ill-fitting comparisons anyway.

what you do NOT get to do is continually claim the high moral ground about having beaten the market yourselves while throwing out multiple incorrect assumptions and statements basically Woo-woo-ing anything more sophisticated than your utterly "Retail" approaches.

because you know and understand nothing of such systems. I am purely helping to fill that knowledge void, even if some of the truths are clearly uncomfortable to you. that is very clear by your reaction/s

after all if Skeptica had crashed and burned, it would have been admissible evidence then, huh? :rolleyes:

Fast Eddie B said:
Which is why I've gone pretty much silent in this thread - kevsta's charts and lines are simply boring.

But I would not want any recent participant in this thread to assume I'm engaged in any sort of "contest" here - I'm not.
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"Charts and lines" ? get a grip. you are getting screenshots of interactive data in tabulated form (I bet you haven't even clicked a single link have you? the cognitive dissonance is strong with this one) if you were to, you could investigate every trade in incredible detail, you could see state of the art statistics, verified.

any argument that "it is not real money" is destroyed by the simple answer "yes it is"

EVERY single trade on my funds was taken live by its originator system. EVERY single win and loss was real money somewhere.

So I suggest if you have nothing relevant to add, that you just watch and slowly learn.

and man up and take responsibility for your cliched incorrectness.
"previous performance cannot be used to predict future algo performance"
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over 5 or 6 weeks it most certainly can, huh?

"any index fund will beat any TA system over the long term"
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nonsense. depends on the system and your index entry points.

and the timescale, quote your desired timescale and let your statements prove themselves or fail on a live test?

what's the problem lads? you might lose? so might I? in fact according to you, that is inevitable? I came to this thread 4 months into a 6 month theoretical test. that was ok then. so it can continue as such.
 
and as for gloating, its not intended as gloating, it is intended as a live-time data set for ongoing statistical analysis purposes.

however I seem to remember a fair amount of gloating and mocking when it wasn't going so well for Samson, and of course if Skeptica & UnObtainium crash and burn I'm sure I will be getting some too.

We have already been talking about these things, S&P, Apple, WMT, TSLA etc in this thread. you have been unashamedly promoting investing over trading the whole way through, why are you not (all) keen to prove how correct you are?

I keep telling you, I am open-ended with time, these systems need nothing from me except monitoring, the occasional tweak, and screenshoting.

I say the fact that all of the signal provider systems have past history of continuing profits month after month means something, moving forwards, if you understand what you are looking at, and know what you are doing. you say it is all woo.

so surely this is the perfect automated long term test requiring nothing but watching, and available openly to all to do so?

how many weeks does it have to average 70% win to become statistically significant?

how many up days to down days do we need to become statistically significant? 75% up? 80% up days? for how long?

and given that *they dont work for very long* ..if it is +200% up in 12 months, could we then just bank the money and wait 20 years for the equivalent stocks to catch up? or is your way still better?

how about somebody use some of their brainpower to look at what is actually happening (data, evidence, you know) day after day in front of your eyes, rather than moaning about not liking the game any more just because its not going your way currently? (which it unfortunately is very much not today)

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/38.png[/IMGW]

and

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/996.png[/IMGW]
 
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