Well, no: energy is the driver and velocity is the result. Estimating the velocity just unnecessarily complicates the problem, in fact, because then you have to try to figure out how much force there is in the impact. I admit I thought you would need to do that, too, but reading Bazant's 2002 energy argument was like "doh!" -- if you can't dissipate the energy due to gravity, then the collapse proceeds, and the velocity is an irrelevant detail.
Nah, that's not what is being said at all. In the kinematic equations, velocity is the value that is squared and so is the main driver of energy in that instance.
If you want to say that energy is the driver, then velocity is the force multiplier.