Passing Peak Trump?

newyorkguy said:
New York is full of guys like Donald Trump. They spell "belief" with an 'o' as in o-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y. Like a former boss of mine once said, referring to charges and counter-charges being hurled between warring departments (within the same company): "We believe what we need to believe when we need to believe it. When the situation changes, we believe something else." This was his response after I objected (in private) to a statement he had made about another department. He said they had done x-y-z and it just about destroyed a business project we were involved in. I said to him, "But Boss...ummm, I don't think they really did that." First words out of his mouth were, spoken with a big grin, "That doesn't matter. We believe they did it." Then he winked and explained to me, "We believe what we need to believe yada-yada-yada"

Donald Trump is from the same corporate culture. Even worse actually because he's a New York real estate developer. They are the absolute worst when it comes to ethics or integrity.
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Trump reminds me more then a little of Professor Harold Hill trying to unload cheap band instruments and uniforms on a Small Iowa Town....
 
dudalb said:
Trump reminds me more then a little of Professor Harold Hill trying to unload cheap band instruments and uniforms on a Small Iowa Town....
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Oh, come now, Dudalb.
Harold Hill, the main character from the Music Man, is a well-dressed, fast-talking, out-of-town chisler who becomes popular by emphasizing trouble while promising to cure it with a return to traditional values. He lies about his qualifications and when caught in these lies he either distracts people or tells even bigger lies. On the other hand, Donald Trump is... is....

Um, how does the post-delete function work, again?
 
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Second Iowa poll (Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics) confirms Carson's big lead over Trump from prior poll (Quinnipiac).

This is the moment this thread has been waiting for. I'm not saying that Trump is entering his tailspin phase, but the dominance may finally be in wane. The real test is will there be someone other than Carson to put a chink in the Trump armor.
 
applecorped said:
"This is the moment this thread has been waiting for"?

Hmmm, sounds familiar.
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Maybe, but something is different this time. Trump has led in every major poll since late June. Now he's getting clobbered in 2 successive Iowa polls. That's an unfamiliar circumstance.
 
Reality is landing on Trump, mussing up his hair.

Trump super PAC is shutting down, amidst evidence of cooperation with Trump campaign.

Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s campaign manager, has insisted that Trump has never blessed or worked with a super PAC, although recent FEC filings revealed that the campaign directed hard dollars to two Colorado-based companies both affiliated with Ciletti.
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hgc said:
Maybe, but something is different this time. Trump has led in every major poll since late June. Now he's getting clobbered in 2 successive Iowa polls. That's an unfamiliar circumstance.
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Maybe. The problem is that Trump, in contrast to candidates like Carson and Fiorina (and Bernie Sanders on the Dem side) has virtually unlimited financial resources to draw from. He apparently also has already built out a solid campaign infrastructure at the primary and caucus level. I can't really see a non-establishment candidate competing with that. Either Bush or Rubio catch fire, and they're running out of time, or Trump is going to be the nominee.
 
sunmaster14 said:
Maybe. The problem is that Trump, in contrast to candidates like Carson and Fiorina (and Bernie Sanders on the Dem side) has virtually unlimited financial resources to draw from. He apparently also has already built out a solid campaign infrastructure at the primary and caucus level. I can't really see a non-establishment candidate competing with that. Either Bush or Rubio catch fire, and they're running out of time, or Trump is going to be the nominee.
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He has the money, absolutely. The question is: Is he willing to spend it?

The other thing is -- the GOP establishment (the donor class) are not at all thrilled with his ideas about the carried interest exemption. Only Club for Growth has been running attack ads against Trump so far. Wait until they all start coming after him. They'll blanket the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire, defining him with a host of negatives -- and they don't even have to make up a bunch of lies either.

I'm not saying that Trump can't be the nominee, but I do still think it's less than likely.
 
hgc said:
He has the money, absolutely. The question is: Is he willing to spend it?

The other thing is -- the GOP establishment (the donor class) are not at all thrilled with his ideas about the carried interest exemption. Only Club for Growth has been running attack ads against Trump so far. Wait until they all start coming after him. They'll blanket the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire, defining him with a host of negatives -- and they don't even have to make up a bunch of lies either.

I'm not saying that Trump can't be the nominee, but I do still think it's less than likely.
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I think the Donor class has been holding off out of hope that Trump would self destruct without the need for the PTB in the GOP taking a active role. Reason for this concern that if Trump felt he had not been treated "fairly" by the GOP he would run an an independent. (The Donor class thinking that Trump's pledge not to do that is not worth the paper it is written on....and IMHO they are 1000% right to think that).
But I think the Donor class is coming to think that if Trump does not get the nomination he will run and an Indy regardless of circumstances, and in the next couple of weeks they will really open fire.
ANd, in the end, they can simply point to the polls...nominatng Trump almost guarntees a Democratic win next November.
 
Slowly, slowly the raison d'être of this thread picks up steam. Now a national poll puts Ben Carson on top, putting Make America Great Again into second place. It's the CNN/New York Times poll, and it has the kooky doctor up 26 - 22 over Mr. Trump. This, on top of 4 straight Iowa polls with similar positions.

Now Trump is begging his Iowa audiences: "Can we get these numbers up, please?"

My favorite though: As I was torturing myself with Morning Joe this morning, I decided to stick with it as Trump made his regular call-in. He was asked by Mark Halperin about the inconsistency of citing of polls where he's ahead and ragging on polls where he's behind. The answer is a study in blustery gibberish.

Halperin: "... When you're ahead in the polls, you cite them; you act like they're scientific gospel. When we see polls where you're behind, sometimes .. often you'll challenge the pollster, the organization, the methodology, the legitimacy of the poll. So, how do you determine.. how do you justify or explain attacking polls where you're behind and celebrating polls where you're ahead.

Trump: "Well, I think you have to understand polls. And when I was at school.. when I was at Wharton we actually had a case on polls, we had a one month study of polls.. and I believe in polls.. I generally believe in polls. The thing with these polls they're all so different, they're coming from all over the lot, where one guy's up here, another guy's up there. You see swings of 10 and 12 points, you know, like, immediately, even the same day. So right now, it's not very scientific. It's very had when you have this many. Overall, Mark, I am a believer in polls. They say something, at least they spot a trend.
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Got that? Some time in the 60's, Trump had a business school case on polls. So, when he dismisses polls that have him down, he's an expert!

I'm spotting a polling trend -- passing peak Trump. If you thought the swift climb and the long-held perch was entertaining, you're going to love the tumble. Am I wrong?
 
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hgc said:
Slowly, slowly the raison d'être of this thread picks up steam. Now a national poll puts Ben Carson on top, putting Make America Great Again into second place. It's the CNN/New York Times poll, and it has the kooky doctor up 26 - 22 over Mr. Trump. This, on top of 4 straight Iowa polls with similar positions.

Now Trump is begging his Iowa audiences: "Can we get these numbers up, please?"
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Going after Carson on religion was a mistake. He's losing evangelicals I'll wager.

Trump is constitutionally incapable of not responding to criticism with insults. Point Carson.
 
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Puppycow said:
Going after Carson on religion was a mistake. He's losing evangelicals I'll wager.
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I love to watch the process of how common cause political religion works to subsume old bigotries. First the fundamentalists started to accept the Popists into their midst, then the Mormons got a pass. Now it's the Saturday worshipers? Do you know how much the 7th dayers were, until recently, despised by Southern Baptist types?

No, I don't think the attacks on Carson's religion is Trump's problem. I have said all along that Trump will fade when his shtick loses its freshness, and people start looking for new entertainment. Part of his magic is that he has been able to come up with new material on an almost daily basis. But even a genius for invention like Trump has his creative limits.
 
hgc said:
I love to watch the process of how common cause political religion works to subsume old bigotries. First the fundamentalists started to accept the Popists into their midst, then the Mormons got a pass. Now it's the Saturday worshipers? Do you know how much the 7th dayers were, until recently, despised by Southern Baptist types?

No, I don't think the attacks on Carson's religion is Trump's problem. I have said all along that Trump will fade when his shtick loses its freshness, and people start looking for new entertainment. Part of his magic is that he has been able to come up with new material on an almost daily basis. But even a genius for invention like Trump has his creative limits.
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It's hard to prove either theory, but it looks like at least in Iowa that Carson does better among evangelicals than Trump:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/are-evangelicals-splitting-with-trump/412738/

A Quinnipiac poll released last week found neurosurgeon and Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson ahead of Trump by eight percentage points in Iowa. The split among Iowa’s white evangelicals is notable: 36 percent favor Carson, compared to just 17 percent for Trump.
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So Carson is ahead of Trump by 8 points overall, but 19 points among evangelicals. I'm not sure the Carson attacks have had time yet to show up in the polls, but I don't think Trump is helping himself by attacking Carson's faith.
 
Puppycow said:
It's hard to prove either theory, but it looks like at least in Iowa that Carson does better among evangelicals than Trump:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/are-evangelicals-splitting-with-trump/412738/



So Carson is ahead of Trump by 8 points overall, but 19 points among evangelicals. I'm not sure the Carson attacks have had time yet to show up in the polls, but I don't think Trump is helping himself by attacking Carson's faith.
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That's not surprising. Trump's "faith" is so obviously phony that even people who are routinely taken in by televangelists can see through him.
 
Trebuchet said:
That's not surprising. Trump's "faith" is so obviously phony that even people who are routinely taken in by televangelists can see through him.
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I really think that many of evangelicals would be, and have been, willing to give that a pass, because what they really care about is not Trump's actual beliefs, but his willingness to propel their political agenda -- which is more than apparent -- and his rambunctious assholeishness.

Are they migrating toward Sleepy Ben? Sure, because he's also bringing the goods.

This point of this is that sincere beliefs are of no consequence. They really couldn't give a rat's ass. And I can understand -- I happen to think that a lot of "evangelicals" are pretenders too, and they're in it for the political agenda.
 
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Carson will not get the nomination, because we all know there are quite a few GOPers who will simply not vote for a black guy,no matter what his politicis.
It will come down to Jeb or Mario.
 
I feel the need to take a trump - oops, a dump - either way it's feces all the way!!!
 
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