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Bush Texas Air National Guard Memos are Forgeries

You are making a lot of assumptions to justify the various 10% numbers you cite and their independence from one another (which would be the only time you can multiple). Would you have assumed that my office in a state organization at that time also had a less than 10% chance of having a superscript typewriter? But almost every office in my organization had one. My office had two, and almost every secretary in these offices knew how to use its fancier features; in fact so did I even as a researcher in the same building. So rather (pun intended) that having less than one chance in 1% as you have calculated (making it look scientific) we had a 100% probability of producing these features in our correspondence.

But I am mystified why you continue to wish to discuss this with someone who also concludes that these are probably forgeries.

Huh? I thought I was being helpful by explaining why I was so confident. I don't really want to discuss the forgeries any more. I want to discuss the movie and the attempt to rehabilitate Rather's and Mapes' reputation. Unfortunately, the movie is still in limited release, and it hasn't come to Boston yet. I also missed my chance to see Pawn Sacrifice. This limited release stuff seems to be a new strategy by investors who have bought distribution rights. It's kind of annoying.
 
Huh? I thought I was being helpful by explaining why I was so confident. I don't really want to discuss the forgeries any more. I want to discuss the movie and the attempt to rehabilitate Rather's and Mapes' reputation. Unfortunately, the movie is still in limited release, and it hasn't come to Boston yet. I also missed my chance to see Pawn Sacrifice. This limited release stuff seems to be a new strategy by investors who have bought distribution rights. It's kind of annoying.

I too am happy to drop it.

As to limited release- I think that it is pretty common now for movies thought to have a limited, specialized audience. It helps save the costs of a wider release/advertising campaign and potentially can draw enough of an audience during the limited release to get good word of mouth and show enough adequate numbers to justify a larger release. And the big money might be in dvd or streaming sales, so they just want to generate some initial visibility. I don't know if this was also true years ago- certainly for most foreign films (I was in a college town at one point with two revival and foreign film theaters).

Yes, I am not now in a big city and I regret not having a chance to see the many movies that never make it to my town. Luckily a number of these movies eventually make it to Netflix, etc, so I have a second chance without paying the high admission fees.
 
Good- I honestly look forward to your take on the movie.

My understanding is that the movie will not be in general release until Oct 16 in the USA, but has been screened at the Toronto Film festival and for a variety of film critics. As you stated, the critical response has been good, if not great. So who knows, I may actually see it when it is released to us general public.

I will be particularly interested in how the film portrays the forged documents: from what I read in the reviews the film does not try to argue that these "documents" were real ones (which I gather would be impossible) but to try to present a story of why the participants were fooled by them. But this too is second hand and I will need to see the movie myself.
And don't forget, Cate B is super super hot. That's why I'm going to go and see it. :D
 
When you just posted that these documents, if authentic, would have been typed on an old Olympia manual, I thought- aha- a smoking gun because the typeface and pressure would have been easy to confirm as an Olympia manual or not (presumably not given your conclusion). But I gather this was sarcasm on your part, and we don't really know what typewriter(s) the signing officer would have available in their office at the time.
The actual machine available is important to know because (as I still understand it) some typewriters at the time would have been able to generate the memos and others not. Being able to rule out the former as available to the alleged writer would make the conclusion "forgery!" easy and definitive. As it is, we still have the same situation as before- more machines (computers) were available that would have generated that style of type at the time of the forgery than at the time of an authentic letter. I agree, but so far I haven't seen information that indicates NO machines would have been available to the officer at the time which could have produced authentic memos.

My conclusion- the memos are probably a forgery, but there is still a small possibility that they are not, and that the widely believed presumption that they were definitely a forgery is often based on evidence that, once challenged, is not really there.

NO sarcasm, and we do. The Olympia manual is the typewriter that Killian's assigned typist said she was using in that period. It could not produce the superscripts & kerning in the memos.
 
And don't forget, Cate B is super super hot. That's why I'm going to go and see it. :D

They have a couple of really big stars in this one. Ok. Robert Redford is a bit past his prime, but he's a good actor with great name recognition.

You don't get names like that for cheap. Somebody thought this was an important film to make.

Somebody will lose a lot of money on it, and I doubt it will even be noticed. Whether the somebody who bankrolled it was hoping for financial or political gain, I doubt he'll get either.
 
I notice that we have now moved from - it was not possible to produce these documents on a typewriter from that period - to a person said that they used a specific typewriter.

By the way. The IBM executive series of electric typewriters were around since the 1930s.

Have a nice day.
 
I notice that we have now moved from - it was not possible to produce these documents on a typewriter from that period - to a person said that they used a specific typewriter.

By the way. The IBM executive series of electric typewriters were around since the 1930s.

Have a nice day.

It's the Memoists that have been trying to prove the unlikely was barely possible with enormous difficulty, instead of

1. Load text file into MS Word
2. press Print
 
BTW. Unless the secretary is claiming to have typed the memos, the typewriter used by the secretary is irrelevant.

If they are as purported, routine memos from Colonel Jerry B. Killian, who else would have typed them? magic elves?
 
NO sarcasm, and we do. The Olympia manual is the typewriter that Killian's assigned typist said she was using in that period. It could not produce the superscripts & kerning in the memos.

Excellent! Not exactly a smoking gun, of course given that if, as I gather, the secretary was saying that she didn't type these memos, of course she didn't type them on an IBM, but a gun nonetheless. More in the direction I was seeking! Do you have a citation for that? Even better if that was the only typewriter available to Killian. Do you have a citation for that too? Again, that's just what I'm seeking- hard evidence!

Edited to ask: is this the same secretary who claims the memos are not the ones she typed but are still accurate accounts of the concerns that Killan shared with her as to Bush's service? I am not suggesting that makes the memos okay or justifies any forgeries- I only found that when I tried to look this up myself the secretary's statement could be viewed as independent support for the authenticity of the statements in the memos if not the authenticity of the memos themselves.
http://articles.latimes.com/2004/sep/15/nation/na-guard15
 
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Salon rehashes the whole thing here. There is not much said that hasn't been said in this thread.



http://www.salon.com/2015/10/17/geo...the_undeniable_service_gaps_he_got_away_with/

Like I said earlier in the thread, nobody cared by 2004. It's like Bill Clinton cheated on his wife, or Barack Obama was born in Kenya. No sitting president gets ousted on anything other than the last four years.

When the guy's a relative unknown, something like this could scare us. But after four years of seeing him every night on the evening news, it just washes off like water from a duck's back.
 
I notice that we have now moved from - it was not possible to produce these documents on a typewriter from that period - to a person said that they used a specific typewriter.
It was not possible to produce these documents on a typewriter from that period.

Charles Johnson's blink gif is conclusive if you know anything about typography. There were fancy typewriters in use in the 70s, with proportional spacing and superscripts and replaceable typefaces - in use for document preparation, not for memos - but they didn't use the same font metrics as we do today. 1 2

The documents literally could not have been produced in the 70s; the earliest possible date would around 1981, using a Xerox Star workstation, and even that would be require an enormous series of coincidences to produce the closeness of a match we actually see.

The only remotely plausible conclusion is that the documents were produced in Microsoft Word 2003, and probably on a Mac. They are hasty and very, very poor forgeries by a talentless amateur and would have been spotted as such instantly by anyone remotely competent.
 
It was not possible to produce these documents on a typewriter from that period.

Charles Johnson's blink gif is conclusive if you know anything about typography. There were fancy typewriters in use in the 70s, with proportional spacing and superscripts and replaceable typefaces - in use for document preparation, not for memos - but they didn't use the same font metrics as we do today. 1 2

The documents literally could not have been produced in the 70s; the earliest possible date would around 1981, using a Xerox Star workstation, and even that would be require an enormous series of coincidences to produce the closeness of a match we actually see.

The only remotely plausible conclusion is that the documents were produced in Microsoft Word 2003, and probably on a Mac. They are hasty and very, very poor forgeries by a talentless amateur and would have been spotted as such instantly by anyone remotely competent.

This is again what I asked for- the actual evidence of it being a forgery. I appreciate it. I was able to finally find a high-def version of the Johnson blink GIF and it does indicates a very strong resemblance between the work 2003 document and the "Killan" memos. I hate to beat a dead horse, but I did notice consistent differences in certain letters on the blink- r, e, a few others. This could due to the multiple levels of copying of the alleged Killan memos, or differences in the actual printer, or actual differences in the different documents. In fact the document experts brought in by 60 minutes also said that the memos were too crudely copied to accurately judge. Personally I think the comparison would have been better if the blink alternated between the memo, the Microsoft 2003 document, and an overlay of both- the use of one version and the overlay tended to block up the letters and made it harder to see any similarities and differences.

I could go on to argue that the differences in the letters I noted above are real- they could be or not. I could ask why the secretary's memory about the typewriter she used is considered by some conservatives to be correct but her memory about Killan having concerns about Bush and creating similar memos must be wrong. But from the first, I posted that I was fairly convinced that the memos were forgeries, and I very recently agreed with Sunmaster to just drop what I think is a very minor issue whether the memos are true or false. I only returned to this issue because other posters provided what they believe is more convincing evidence, and I felt an obligation to examine it and comment on it. But I am mystified: I agree with you folks! But apparently not deeply enough and/or for the wrong reasons, so we have nonetheless continued this discussion. I feel that to keep my word to Sunmaster I will just do this one more time: I believe that the memos were very probably forgeries and that Dan Rather did not show adequate journalistic judgement in using them. But I also believe (and been surprised) that nonetheless some of the evidence casually cited as documenting they are forgeries (the simple presence of kerning, superscripts) are not as absolutely convincing as is sometimes thought. That does not mean that I think the memos are real; there is yet more detailed evidence that does favor forgery. More important- I would feel like an idiot to argue the degree of my confidence in my conclusion, which agrees with yours anyway, especially on a relatively trivial topic. Again- let's move on.
 
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...especially on a relatively trivial topic. Again- let's move on.

Sorry if I've poured more fuel on the flames.

I have absolutely no stake in the outcome of a discussion about an ex-American president's behaviour.

However, as an impartial observer, I was really surprised how sloppy thinking and strident voices were able to shut down discussion on this topic at the time.

If one is trained in critical thinking, one learns to deconstruct arguments, and test them for cogency.

So in this case, the argument now appears to rest on:

1. Premise: It was not possible to create these documents on any typewriter in 1970.

Clearly false, IBM had been producing typewriters with those features for some time before that.

The style of typewriter that I used with those features, was available since the 1960s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Selectric_typewriter

and the precursor to that typewriter had font kerning as early as 1944 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Electric_typewriter.

2. Premise: It was not possible for a Colonel, on a military base, that's large enough to have operational jet planes, to have access to a typist that used a typewriter that had been available since 1944. (Note this seems to be suggesting that there was only one typist and one typewriter on the entire base).

Clearly false, if a Colonel wants something typed, it gets typed.

Again, from my own experience, if a typist is not available for any reason, another typist picks up the work, typically the typing would be performed by someone in a typing pool (i.e. a room full of typists). If it is a long term lack, another typist from the pool, would be assigned to that person.

If something is considered to be particularly sensitive, then using a different typist may be a deliberate choice, for example, for contracts involving military equipment, typically the supervisor of the typing pool would prepare those documents for me (even though I could type, she was way better than me).

3. It is possible to (nearly) replicate the memos, using Microsoft Word 2003.

I'd classify this as a red-herring. Word processing software should allow someone to (nearly) replicate a photocopy of a type-written document. Even if it was possible to exactly replicate the document using this method, it still doesn't prove anything about the original document.

Looking at this another way. If I designed a process to exactly copy the Mona Lisa through 3D printing, does that prove that Leonardo da Vinci used a 3D printer to make the original?

4. The document was photocopied, therefore it is fake.

Demonstrably false. The act of photocopying does not affect the veracity of the original. No matter how many times the Mona Lisa is photographed, it doesn't turn the original into a fake.

Younger people, probably have not experienced "jokes" being photo-copied again and again, with each recipient making new copies of the copy they received. In the military, these jokes may be cartoons, text, or copies of real documents that people felt were amusing. For example, the common error "sorry for any incontinence..." often turned up in photocopied "jokes".

I can easily imagine people making copies of copies of a document that could be used against someone in the military, either for "***** and giggles" or to be saved up for possible future misuse.

So, once again. I don't care about the specifics (i.e. who did what) but respectfully suggest that no-one has come within coo-ee of proving that the document was fake.

As I said, I have no stake in the source of the argument, but do not like the lack of critical
 
The part about switching the golfball to do superscript text is a bit of a furphy.

If you are already using a golfball with st, rd, and th characters, you don't need to switch golfballs.

Again, from memory, the machine I used had six golfballs in a separate tray. Those golfballs were for Courier 10cpi, Courier 12cpi. Helvetica 10, 12, italic 10 and italic 12.

It was a long time ago, so I wouldn't be shocked if I have any of those wrong.

Superscript characters on typewriters are not a big deal, I would not be surprised if it was a feature required by military organisations.

Single quote, double quote, caret, tilde... these are all superscript characters, so there are two options available to a typist:

1. roll the platten one click and use normal characters.
2. use a golfball that includes the necessary superscript characters.
 

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