Thank you so much for the effort. My math gets a different result. I am assuming that is a 5 year span 2003-07. 1/5 of that is 205,104 and 2.2% of that is 4518 per year (much higher than I would have guessed) which translates into 12 per day. This should mean that here in Seattle one should occur about once per month and that just doesn't seem right. (Using 1 million people in the greater Seattle area which is a conservative number as the metro area is closer to 3.6 million) I'd ask you to do your area and see if it makes sense to you.
I didn't say they never happened, but I did think your description was over the top. You made it seem that multiple burglaries turned into murder rapes every day. I have no objection to using the US stats even though it does appear we are a more violent country than Italy.
One aspect of what you report is that it doesn't seem (haven't read the link yet) they distinguish between home invasions and second story guys that are caught by the homeowner.
Once again thanks for the effort and I am surprised at the stats.
The table where I pulled the data states "Total average annual number of burglaries of occupied residences" so you should not be dividing by five. I believe my numbers are correct.
"You made it seem that multiple burglaries turned into murder rapes every day."
Based on these numbers there were just under 62 burglaries that resulted in sexual assault/rape
every day. It's a frightfully staggering number, but that is the number (at least during the span from 03-07). And this is just the US. Imagine the global number!
Despite the numerous metrics provided in the report, they don't distinguish between door and window, nor do they distinguish between ground floor or upper floors, so that aspect will remain a mystery. Given that the lawyer's office was burgled via a second story terrace/window, it would seem climbing is not a deterrent.
BTW, it was never my intent to suggest anything was 'proven' by this stain (IF it was semen and IF it was Guede's), I was merely pointing out the argument that if it was Guede's semen it wouldn't change a thing was incorrect, at least IMHO. It goes towards proving his level of involvement and, by integrating it with other evidence, begins to make the story of the crime a little clearer. I understand you disagree, and that's fair. I'm just an IT professional and readily admit I'm an amateur in CSI matters.
BTW2, the point about whether Meredith's bra was removed before or after her death - I understand what the prosecution tried to claim, and I even understand what the Massei and Nencini courts chose to rule on, but I think the evidence proves otherwise. She couldn't have aspirated blood droplets onto her bare skin if she was dead, so I think it's clear the bra was fully removed (from her breasts, not necessarily from her body) while she was still alive. And since her bra was heavily soaked in blood it suggests it was in place covering her breasts when the initial stab wounds were inflicted. Since I believe removal of the bra was an active part of the sexual assault and not some staging, as the prosecution claimed, and since Guede is the only one who left significant forensic evidence of committing the assault, I think this also goes a long way to showing he committed the entire crime. My personal theory is Meredith was alive but completely incapacitated when Guede dragged her by her bra out of the pool of blood. In doing so he tore the strap apart.
And yes, none of this
proves a lone attacker. However, I believe the more you can show one person committed all the key elements of the attack, the more you can draw no other conclusion. At some point, trying to factor in a second assailant becomes more an effort to appease an unfounded theory than represent credible crime scene analysis.