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Seeing Cryptids: The Problems

Jodie said:
I just happened to be at the right place at the right time. I've been to this house numerous times over the last 6 years. That was the one and only cougar sighting I've had anywhere in the wild.
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Is it possible for you to post some pics of back yard where this happened. Maybe a view from the porch and details of where all the action occurred ?
 
William Parcher said:
I don't even know what you are correcting. I said that this cougar was stupid. The percentage of failed attacks (of course there are failed attacks) isn't relevant and I never implied that no attacks are unsuccessful.

This cougar was first seen chasing a deer, then went for the butt and tackled it to the ground, then they rolled together, and then the deer broke free and the chase resumed. It's stupid tactics for that to happen when you've already got the deer on the ground and rolling while in your grip.
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The cougar may have been tired, or slow, and made one final lunge for the deer, hoping to catch any part of it.
 
Dinwar said:
No. It was a leading question, one that assumed a specific answer; as such, it is inherently dishonest.

If you have any data on hwo attacks occur in failed attacks, please present it. As I am not arguing in favor of the existence of cougars in this particular area, but rather am attempting to address an obvious bias that touches on areas of interest of mine, I am under no obligation to play your silly games.
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Just wanted to point out that Jodie did not initially describe a failed attack.

I watched a tan big cat chase a deer and bring it down, it looked like a cougar to me.
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http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10887890&postcount=2635

The part about losing grip and the chase continuing, was added later.
 
The Shrike said:
Um, no. There aren't supposed to be any fishers in Nebraska.

I once had a fisher run over my foot while I was hiking a trail in Maine. It's an experience that I had while I was working, but it happened in an instant and I didn't have a camera.

Fishers are unusual to observe, but they occur in Maine so there was nothing all that unusual about my experience.

What if, however, instead of a fisher I was sure I had seen an ocelot? Now that would be unprecedented but still technically possible as ocelots exist. No matter how sure I was of that sighting, I would have to be open to the fact that I was simply mistaken, i.e., that my memory is not some kind of digital recorder of the things that occur before my eyes. At some point on a scale of unlikelihood, I would be confronted with this: the probability that I had been wrong was greater than the probability that I had been right. In other words, it matters not how sure I am about something I recall. If that something is a really unusual event, I must remain open to the fact that I was simply wrong.
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You would probably be a better observer/witness than most here since that's something you do on a regular basis, that, and you know your animals (committed to your long term memory).

It really depends on what it is, a fischer looks like an ocelot or a weasel. It could be confused easily enough by me. A cougar doesn't look like anything else in SC.
 
William Parcher said:
I don't even know what you are correcting. I said that this cougar was stupid. The percentage of failed attacks (of course there are failed attacks) isn't relevant and I never implied that no attacks are unsuccessful.

This cougar was first seen chasing a deer, then went for the butt and tackled it to the ground, then they rolled together, and then the deer broke free and the chase resumed. It's stupid tactics for that to happen when you've already got the deer on the ground and rolling while in your grip.
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It was said that it couldn't be a cougar, because cougars don't attack that way. Then evidence was presented to support that view, in the form of data taken from successful attacks. I called that into question, because most attacks fail.

If you genuinely cannot see how the logic works here, I can't help you. It's extremely straight-forward.

GT/CS said:
The cougar may have been tired, or slow, and made one final lunge for the deer, hoping to catch any part of it.
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Exactly. It's not an ideal attack, but I've seen enough animal interactions to know that the ideal isn't the only option. Sometimes animals just do freaking stupid things. Ergo, we cannot--without further reasons or evidence--conclude that the attack style is diagnostic in this case. All I'm dong is asking for that additional reasoning or evidence, if there is any.
 
comncents said:
Is it possible for you to post some pics of back yard where this happened. Maybe a view from the porch and details of where all the action occurred ?
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I'll ask my friend to take some and text them, then I'll have to text them to you or someone else to post since I don't know how to post pics here.
 
William Parcher said:
My best excuse was a stupid cougar? No, the best excuse never even dawned on you and now I will hand it to you on a silver platter.

The cougar had an unsuccessful hunt because its claws were surgically removed.
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That's one possible explanation.
 
Apologies if I'm putting words in Dinwar's mouth, but my impression is that he's saying there are many reasons to be dubious of this story, but the claim the cougar's attack failed or was carried out poorly is not one of them.

He's right. Animals aren't robots.
 
Jodie said:
I'll ask my friend to take some and text them, then I'll have to text them to you or someone else to post since I don't know how to post pics here.
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There are probably easier methods, but here is how I post pictures. I save them to my desktop. Then in the User CP (top left) under Networking there is a section called Pictures & Albums. Click on that and create a new Album. Once in it, I upload from the desktop. Once in the album, I click on the picture and below copy the picture url. Then once in a thread, click on the insert picture icon and paste the url into that section.

Sounds complicated, but once you've done it a couple of times, it goes quickly.
 
Dinwar said:
THose are successful kills, though. Predators CAN miss, or make unconventional attacks unlikely to succeed. From a purely biological perspective, how would one find data for failed attacks of this nature? By definition, the organisms would still be running around (at least for a while).
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Jodie claims she saw a cougar in SC making an unsuccessful attempt to attack the rump of a deer, successful cougar attacks are typically about the head and neck of the deer. Cougar predation tactics on deer has had thousands of years to evolve. So not only did she see a Cougar in the tidal islands of South Carolina, but she saw it attack a deer in a way that doesn't work, and which a cougar would not attempt to do, unless it was retarded.

It sounds more like the typical attack of a Coyote or a stray dog.
 
bruto said:
Sure, he was a poor boy a long ways from home and losing his motivation. Probably starved to death soon after, and the vultures ate up the remains.
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In no way am I saying the event occurred. I'm just saying that not all Cougars have the opportunity for a perfect kill.
 
Dinwar said:
It was said that it couldn't be a cougar, because cougars don't attack that way. Then evidence was presented to support that view, in the form of data taken from successful attacks. I called that into question, because most attacks fail.

If you genuinely cannot see how the logic works here, I can't help you. It's extremely straight-forward.



Exactly. It's not an ideal attack, but I've seen enough animal interactions to know that the ideal isn't the only option. Sometimes animals just do freaking stupid things. Ergo, we cannot--without further reasons or evidence--conclude that the attack style is diagnostic in this case. All I'm dong is asking for that additional reasoning or evidence, if there is any.
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It was not said that it couldn't be a cougar because of the attack method. I said that it was stupid style. I also said that if a kill had occurred it would have been a throat bite (probably). That is not implying that the first cougar/deer contact is going to be near the head or neck - of course that isn't a necessity. You've misunderstood what was said and the intent. I am quite familiar with predator/prey interaction and know that predator attacks only have a potential to be successful and can be unsuccessful for a whole variety of reasons. I did not intend to hypothetically narrow any hunting tactics for the purpose of declaring this a fabricated sighting report. That determination comes from other factors.

I suspect (but don't know) that the majority of unsuccessful cougar on deer attacks occur when no contact is made. Once contact is made the claws are put into full use in all capacities to hold the deer like Velcro and very rapidly and skillfully get the jaws to the head/neck/throat. This quick process can certainly start with initial contact at the rump. The "stupid" part is a casual description of a cat that already had the Velcro paws application but still let the deer regain its footing and run away. Its mother would have been very disappointed to see that happen after a full tackle to the ground. She might agree that there was some kind of stupidity going on. :D
 
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Drewbot said:
Jodie claims she saw a cougar in SC making an unsuccessful attempt to attack the rump of a deer, successful cougar attacks are typically about the head and neck of the deer. Cougar predation tactics on deer has had thousands of years to evolve. So not only did she see a Cougar in the tidal islands of South Carolina, but she saw it attack a deer in a way that doesn't work, and which a cougar would not attempt to do, unless it was retarded.



It sounds more like the typical attack of a Coyote or a stray dog.
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Actually, the initial claim was that the cougar "brought the deer down." That sounds more like a successful attempt vs an unsuccessful one.
 
Jodie said:
You would probably be a better observer/witness than most
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No, you're missing the point. The fact that I am a biologist might mean that I can recognize a larger number of species on sight than can the average bloke, but it in no way buffers me from a mistake in perception about something I think I've seen.

When someone claims to have seen an out-of-place cougar, my skepticism rarely stems from supposition that the alleged witness does not know what a cougar looks like. This is why "I know what I saw" is perhaps the weakest thing that witness can offer in an attempt to bolster the claim. When I read/hear that, I immediately translate it into "I know you know what you think you saw, but that in no way establishes that you saw what you thought."
 
Drewbot said:
Cougar predation tactics on deer has had thousands of years to evolve. So not only did she see a Cougar in the tidal islands of South Carolina, but she saw it attack a deer in a way that doesn't work, and which a cougar would not attempt to do, unless it was retarded.
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This doesn't make sense. Sure, I agree cougars have had a long time to evolve tactics against cervids; however, that doesn't mean they always USE those attacks. Again, we have no evidence for failed attacks to work with, so we can't say what those attacks are like. As for psychological analysis of wildlife based on what the top 5% of attacks look like (as I recall failure rates among predators are astronomically high, with 5% success being common), I don't think that warrants discussion.

I'm not disagreeing with you that this sounds more like an attack from a different critter. Nor am I saying that Jodie is correct in her interpretaiton of what she saw. What I AM saying is that we lack sufficient evidence to use this particular line of logic for dismissing the claim. It's entirely possible--I'd say plausible--that cougars often fail because they attempt attacks that don't fit the pattern of the succesful ones.

William Parcher said:
I suspect (but don't know) that the majority of unsuccessful cougar on deer attacks occur when no contact is made.
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Given the amount of damage common on skeletons, I'd say failed attacks that made contact are a very common thing as well; I can't speak to majority/minority (failed attacks without contact would leave no evidence), but they certainly occur. Drewbot mentioned that cougars have had a long time to evolve to hunt cervids. The flip side of that is that cervids have had a long time to evolve ways to get away from predators. Deer aren't pushovers, and have a variety of tactics that they can employ once the attacker has made contact. An unexpected turn can throw someone, regardless of grip (I've seen profesional blacksmiths have their grip broken by guys half their size because of this).
 
When I was 8, I saw a Jesus Lizard skittering across the surface of a storm-flooded baseball outfield at Springman Jr High.

Except I didn't know what a Jesus Lizard was at the time, nor is that what I saw.

Did I actually see some sort creature doing that? Did I dream it? I don't think it's possible to know. If I were a fabulist though, I bet I'd say there was no mistaking it, it was a Jesus Lizard.
 
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