Dishonest Polling and the News Media Plays Along

[Skeptic Ginger]

I just got one of those political survey calls and I wasn't doing anything so I decided to play along. After a slew of more general questions then came the real reason for the poll:

Will these things make you more or less likely to vote for candidate X:

She worked across the isle.
She accomplished [fill in the blank]
She did all that and lowered taxes.
She's endorsed by [fill in the blank]
Etc.

Will these things make you more or less likely to vote for candidate Y:

She oversaw the problem plagued county jail.
She doubled property taxes (it's not even true).
Her votes have been strictly partisan.
Etc.

At that point I stopped the survey.

One, is it just a campaign call in disguise? Probably partially.
Two, is it a survey candidate X plans to claim the majority of those polled have a positive view of her and a negative view of candidate Y? Most certainly.

And of course, my not wanting to continue leaves them with a slanted sample.

It's not only a dishonest poll, the poll itself is 'laundered' through a national call center that one pays to conduct the poll and isn't allowed to say who commissioned the poll.


Is this anything new? Of course not.

Does it have implications for the constant poll reports that voters find Clinton not trustworthy? Most certainly.

The news media needs to call that crap out. So far I've only heard one mention of the fact only negative poll questions on Clinton are being reported.

 

[Manopolus]

Opinion polling is nonsensical by its very nature. Those who are willing to take the poll already have something in common which separates them from the rest of humanity.

 

[Shadowdweller]

I worked for a market research firm for several years that conducted these types of poll. The point of the survey is NOT to drum up favorable statistics nor to convince respondents to vote for or against a given candidate. Though I have little doubt that the clients who ordered these polls would consider these things a fringe benefit.

The main point is to find out which particular claims or lines of rhetoric will sway voters. Usually the poll is ordered by a particular campaign or interest group. If the polls seem one-sided it is because the group requesting the poll has no interest whatsoever in objectivity or understanding the worldview of respondents. Only in what words and claims will be effective at manipulating people.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I worked for a market research firm for several years that conducted these types of poll. The point of the survey is NOT to drum up favorable statistics nor to convince respondents to vote for or against a given candidate. Though I have little doubt that the clients who ordered these polls would consider these things a fringe benefit.

The main point is to find out which particular claims or lines of rhetoric will sway voters. Usually the poll is ordered by a particular campaign or interest group. If the polls seem one-sided it is because the group requesting the poll has no interest whatsoever in objectivity or understanding the worldview of respondents. Only in what words and claims will be effective at manipulating people.

Yes, that would be a third reason. Focus groups are also common for such an investigation.

Obviously the majority of these polls are commissioned by candidates or their supporters. But some polls are done by neutral or semi-neutral parties interested in measuring the public's temperature.


As for insulting people who take the polls, Manopolus, some of us want to put our opinions in the mix (when a poll is more honest) just as we put political signs in our yards and bumper stickers on our cars.

 

[GodMark2]

See also Push Poll^WP

A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of voters under the guise of conducting a poll.

 

[casebro]

As for insulting people who take the polls, Manopolus, some of us ......

And the rest of them are the ones gullible enough to respond to the solicitation message on their phones.

You are in a self selecting group, bumper stickers notwhithstanding.

Hmm, how to eliminate that? Poll the next 100 people leaving a grocery store? You'll need the sheriff there. Hmm, where to find an unbiased random cross section? Army draftees? Nope, all young males. Ideas?

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

In the current no-call-list environment, people who are willing to take phone polls are over represented in the pool of respondents. I'm sure this has an effect, but I don't have the money to hire a survey of the people who keep allowing polling companies to call them.

 

[Mike!]

Keep a list of your own questions handy. When the phone rings, tell the pollster you'll gladly take their poll if they'll take a moment and answer all your questions first.

 

[Manopolus]

As for insulting people who take the polls, Manopolus, some of us want to put our opinions in the mix (when a poll is more honest) just as we put political signs in our yards and bumper stickers on our cars.

I do not know why you read that as an insult. I'll admit to reversing the norm in order to make my point of view more apparent, but it was not intended to be insulting.

Although it isn't entirely true on telephone surveys, most people are not only willing, but also wanting to give their opinions. Personally, I prefer to do so in long form, rather than multiple choice. I guess you could say I don't like restricting my opinion to the options given. In almost all cases, I don't feel like the choices accurately describe my position. This is true on psychological surveys, as well. It's almost never yes or no for me, or even somewhere in between. It's "strongly agree" and "strongly disagree" both at once depending upon unspecified details, and I don't feel like that qualifies as being somewhere between the two -- which I would identify as degrees of ambivalence, rather than unspecified conditionals, as would the person that designed it.

What you are describing is a situation where they are trying to manipulate the dialogue in order to limit other sorts of positions entirely. That's what polls tend to do anyway, but in this case it's quite intentional. I'd even go out on a limb and say that this is true of nearly all political polling, although it's usually more subtle. Watch out for the false dichotomies and straw men, because both are present in pretty much everything related to politics.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

See also Push Poll^WP

Yes, that was one of the reasons I mentioned. Thanks for giving it a name and a link elaborating on it.

 

[Trebuchet]

In the current no-call-list environment, people who are willing to take phone polls are over represented in the pool of respondents. I'm sure this has an effect, but I don't have the money to hire a survey of the people who keep allowing polling companies to call them.

Unfortunately polls and political solicitations are exempt from the Do Not Call list. (USA) As are charities.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

And the rest of them are the ones gullible enough to respond to the solicitation message on their phones.

You are in a self selecting group, bumper stickers notwhithstanding.

Hmm, how to eliminate that? Poll the next 100 people leaving a grocery store? You'll need the sheriff there. Hmm, where to find an unbiased random cross section? Army draftees? Nope, all young males. Ideas?

Gullible?

Gullible, those willing to take a nonsensical poll have something in common, ...

So much judgment with so little information.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

In the current no-call-list environment, people who are willing to take phone polls are over represented in the pool of respondents. I'm sure this has an effect, but I don't have the money to hire a survey of the people who keep allowing polling companies to call them.

The no-call list was never enforced and it's become absolutely useless, not to mention pretending you aren't selling anything such as marketing under the guise of polling and making charity or political calls are not banned under the do-not-call list. Then there's the fact I also have a home office line. Business lines are exempt from the do not call list.

I rarely talk to anyone who calls but when someone uses my full name I at least ask who they are. Some of the calls are legit.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Opinion polling is nonsensical by its very nature. Those who are willing to take the poll already have something in common which separates them from the rest of humanity.

Exactly

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

And the rest of them are the ones gullible enough to respond to the solicitation message on their phones.

You are in a self selecting group, bumper stickers notwhithstanding.

Hmm, how to eliminate that? Poll the next 100 people leaving a grocery store? You'll need the sheriff there. Hmm, where to find an unbiased random cross section? Army draftees? Nope, all young males. Ideas?

Yep.

I can't imagine actually wasting time on something like this. I have more interesting things to do.

 

[Brainster]

I Will these things make you more or less likely to vote for candidate X:

She worked across the isle.

You mean with both Gilligan and the Professor?

 

[GodMark2]

You mean with both Gilligan and the Professor?

That would be good training for dealing with congress...

 

[Loss Leader]

Is this anything new? Of course not.

Does it have implications for the constant poll reports that voters find Clinton not trustworthy? Most certainly.

The news media needs to call that crap out. So far I've only heard one mention of the fact only negative poll questions on Clinton are being reported.

Push polling is easiest to detect by which polling companies don't do it. Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) does a great job figuring out which polls are trustworthy.

 

[Shadowdweller]

Oh, nevermind.

 

[carlitos]

Push polling is easiest to detect by which polling companies don't do it. Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) does a great job figuring out which polls are trustworthy.

Yeah, I'm not sure what push polls the news media play along with. I mostly see reputable stuff from Ipsos, Gallup, etc. Push polls are just another example of campaigning.