Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[aleCcowaN]

Geez! Most of you seem to think that the crisis is entirely political or mostly political, besides the ones who have written the central argument on how the United States would back military coups and direct intervention throughout Latin America and the Caribbean from Panama 1903 to Urgent Fury: «(vapours) ... is a sufficient reason by itself to consider Syriza a clear and present danger to Greek democracy»

It is evident to me not only we're in the way of Grexit but now "orderly Grexit" is no longer an option. The menu has shrunk to "disorderly Grexit", "chaotic Grexit" and "painful-the-most Grexit". Why?

To start (I'll finish it in future posts), the only economic law in everything-Greece is this one:

Since 2008 Greece is down, and to the left (back, and to the left; back, and to the left). Now, Greece is off the chart, that means motivation to take decisions are still pretty high, no matter the high losses and the uncertainty of outcome (I remind you economic decisions include "not to do"). Besides, personal economic decisions are less the kind win-win or win-maybe_it_would_do_some_good and more the kind win-who_cares and even maybe-who_cares.

This word juggle means Greece has no longer a banking system within the Euro. Even if all these laws and the agreement pass the Indiana Jones-like escape route they have ahead of them, even if the family silver is sold and the banks capitalized, deposits, if allowed, are just going the way out. Even the humblest Greek with a few euros in a saving account, when faced with two different profit functions, one with his euros within the banking system being rewarded 3% a year and the other having the bank bills in a roll inside a can by the pantry and the minimal risk of a burglar killing him to get his stash, he'll be on the side of the burglar.

If old savings are not withdrawable, new savings will be made of bank bills subtracted to the daily course of businesses. A "dry market". There's no ELA for that. Economic activity and public income will drop following the draught -exactly what is happening now-.

I hope for the sake of Greece and the Eurozone the agreement falls in the short term. Having it in place only means a deeper stagnation, political chaos and 30 to 35% unemployment in Greece for the next Winter. Implementing the agreement will be the fall of Greece, the end of Germany's prestige, and a mess with a bitter aftertaste -the kind the UK likes- will be the plat du jour.

 

[McHrozni]

I hope for the sake of Greece and the Eurozone the agreement falls in the short term. Having it in place only means a deeper stagnation, political chaos and 30 to 35% unemployment in Greece for the next Winter. Implementing the agreement will be the fall of Greece, the end of Germany's prestige, and a mess with a bitter aftertaste -the kind the UK likes- will be the plat du jour.

From what I gather Angela Merkel was the only leader with the right idea - get Greece out of Euro, now. She's being called evil for it.

McHrozni

 

[dudalb]

BTW, with respect to my previous post, here is the daily movement in Euro:USD for yesterday (13/07/15). Note how the very quick spike after the "solution" was announced in Brussels was immediately followed by a steep plunge as the markets realised the proper implications, then a further steady decline in the Euro through the day. It's curtains.

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_4023755a457d8910aa.png[/qimg]

And get the impression,since you seem to be a UK citizen,that you will vote Yes for the UK to leave the EU,

 

[Hlafordlaes]

From what I gather Angela Merkel was the only leader with the right idea - get Greece out of Euro, now. She's being called evil for it.

McHrozni

The austerity players have a tell, and that is that when speaking of the euro, it is conflated with the EU itself. Regardless of the merits of argument on either side, the fact that a temporary Greek exit was discussed without simultaneous chest-beating about how Greece would still form part of the union clearly indicates that the "vision" has become purely economic.

But if economics alone are to be the standard, then the euro itself should be scrapped, as it is yet a political currency, not representing true currency union. On economic terms alone, the euro should only have been introduced once a common EU citizenship allows freedom of movement for labor throughout the currency union under common fiscal and social policies, which is what makes the dollar 'work' across differently-performing regions in the US. This eventuality is unlikely to pertain for decades, if ever, especially if there is no driving vision for a politically united Europe.

As it turns out, the timing of euro introduction was hasty in order to tie a newly reunited East and West Germany into the fold: a political decision. Eastern expansion of the EU was, as well. But Germany has quickly forgotten the reason why things are as they are today, preferring a self-interested reinterpretation, and forgets what concessions were made on its behalf. The strong showing of the German economy pre and post recession is dual testament to both German prowess and to a cheaper currency than the old deutschmark, which certainly would have appreciated away some of the gains.

Many seem to have forgotten, too, that moral hazard applies equally to lenders and borrowers, and bad loans have two guilty parties. Shame/blame goes both ways, but today only one finger is wagging. This bodes ill for the EU.

 

[dudalb]

From what I gather Angela Merkel was the only leader with the right idea - get Greece out of Euro, now. She's being called evil for it.

McHrozni

Germany would be called evil no matter what they do.
Me, I think the EU shoud be happy for deadwright like Greece to be gone. Greece cannot be saved from disaster,and attempts to do so will only deplete resouces for containing the damage .
I hope what has happened has lessened the enthusiam in countries like Spain for groups like Podemos who pretty much want to follow in Syriza's footsteps.

 

[aleCcowaN]

From what I gather Angela Merkel was the only leader with the right idea - get Greece out of Euro, now. She's being called evil for it.

McHrozni

She won't be remembered for what she said but for what she did, and she is the master apparent political mind behind this Agreekment. Once it's approved and put in motion -Darwin forbid it!- and everything fall apart, she'll be blamed for it.

This story is like a Greek tragedy: the characters act publicly as guided by strange superior forces, but the awful truth is the actors just waiting for some deus ex machina who will throw Greece out of the Eurozone and set everybody blameless.

This is just the ongoing story of how to avoid the "mud" to stain the participants. The political system, no matter individual flags, trying to do what the Greek people will be doing in 2 to 6 weeks: every man for himself!

 

[dudalb]

This from a guy who thinks punishing a population with humanitarian crises for daring to vote the wrong way is a desirable outcome...

This come from someone who does not accept the basic facts of economics because they clash with his obvious dislike of the Capitalist system.

 

[dudalb]

The (democratic) referendum rejected more austerity measures, only for the government to be strong armed into more austerity measures. The problem is that the sphere of the political is not even really wanted here. In present EU ideology, the doctrine of austerity is not discussable. It is portrayed as a neutral, rational administrative measure, like ordering more toner for your government copymachines when you run out. The "laws" of economy are seen as "natural laws" that can not be broken under any circumstances and are not subject to politics, much like you wouldn't vote on gravity or whatever.
This is utter bollocks. For one thing, an economy is manmade and these "rules" are so much hot air. Even if you don't believe that, there are actual economist disagreeing with the EU's measures, which indicates that there would be room for compromise or discussion, but this is not admitted by the Eurogroup. It is their way or the highway and they have Greece by the balls using economic blackmail.
Nobody denies that the Greek state is inefficient and corrupt. Tsipras never denied this. In fact, according to Varoufakis, he offered to pass legislation on taxes, vat and other point on which there was agreement between EU and the Greeks during the talks, but was told that only a comprehensive package was to be passed and any action by the Greeks would be seen as unilateral and a breech of trust. Then they go ahead and complain about the Greeks not reforming their state.
To me it seems the EU (or rather Schäuble) never intended for a compromise to be reached. Even though a restructuring of debt seems the only logical conclusion (which is something that is not without precedent), considering even the IMF seems aware that the money is essentially gone, this would be political suicide for Merkel et al after they foolishly took on private losses on the tax payer's dime. Could have just let the banks go under.
In fact, if any German politician reads this, I will vote for any party that is not in any way nationalistic and promises these two things:
1. The next time the banks screw themselves over, give them no bailout money.
2. Once they go under and the mob is closing in, call back the police.
That way we would finally get a trickle-down effect, even if it is just their feces tickling down their legs when they are hanged.
True freedom is not only choosing what to consume or who you can sleep with, it also means being able to determine the economic system of your society. With all these secret treaties and extortionary tactics, it seems clear to me that this is not wanted by those in power. If that isn't a threat to democracy, I don't know what is.

Total nonsense. Neo Marxist revolutionary crap.
If a people chooses a economic system that is stupid and unworkable,they have got to take the consquences.

ANd if the banks had refused to lend the money to the Greek Governemnt, you would no doubt condemn then for being mean and viscous.
You just hate Capitilism and Private Business in general,and think the way to Utopia if for the gonvernment to control everything. It has been tried. It was called the Soviet Union. It did not work.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I hope what has happened has lessened the enthusiam in countries like Spain for groups like Podemos who pretty much want to follow in Syriza's footsteps.

I think it is the other way around: this is saving Podemos from Spain. They will be relieved from any national executive office and keep a fourth of the congress, so they will be able to learn. In five years, when Greece is in recovery and a lot of strain from countries recently joined the Eurozone starts to emerge, plus Spain still in the drain, they will have their true chance.

We shouldn't forget that what happened to Greece after 17 years of having their currency pegged to a hard currency is also happening at a different speed with other countries -even France- and with countries that have a few months to less than a decade of Eurolatry (Slovenia and Estonia 10y; Lithuania and Latvia, quasy 10y; Slovakia, 9 years). And likely this whole Euroexiting thing is probably like what they say about prostitution: the first time to be hard, then it becomes easier.

 

[dudalb]

Why do you hate the EU so much?

And the problem with Podemos is not lack of experience;it;s that their basic economic poliicies are wackjob. If they win, look for business to exit Spain at a speed that will make your head spin.
You can't spend more then you take in for long periods of time without bad things happening.
You can't keep rasing taxes on "the rich" forever without killing the goose that lays the Golden Eggs.
Two basic economic facts of life that many on the Left just cannot accept.

 

[aleCcowaN]

That's your argumentation? I'm jinxing it? It's "my so much" hate? It's Capitalism, no, no, it's the EU! It was Socialism from the very beginning!

 

[dudalb]

I don't think a lot of the words you use mean what you think they mean.......

And nice how you keep on dodging that the economics system that Podemos advocates has been tried before and has failed miserably.

 

[dudalb]

And I love the idea that the way to solve problem caused by massive government spending is even more massive government spending.....

 

[aleCcowaN]

I don't think a lot of the words you use mean what you think they mean.......

Really . Look "irrational cognition" up and you'll understand what I meant by "jinxing".

And nice how you keep on dodging that the economics system that Podemos advocates has been tried before and has failed miserably.

I'm quite sure the system now failing in Greece is called Monetarism (I was a real fan of Milton Friedman during my tender youth but, you know, people grow up), so sure, was what you're saying now the topic? Why don't you name here from Podemos' program a set of points already tried and failed, explaining exactly where they were tried and failed. I'd like to learn from your reasoning, not from your "conclusions" (with extra quotation marks). I've never paid much attention to Podemos; they look pretty uninteresting to me, but I may be wrong. The bogeyman for Podemos is Ciudatans' profile, not perceptions about Syriza, nor what you may think about their politics. Some total 30 minutes reading about Podemos in my whole life already told me that.

 

[GlennB]

You just hate Capitilism and Private Business in general,and think the way to Utopia if for the gonvernment to control everything. It has been tried. It was called the Soviet Union. It did not work.

Yeah, the communist-bloc countries used to kowtow to Moscow. Now Athens will kowtow to Berlin, even when it comes to Greece's parliamentary business.

 

[Childlike Empress]

According to the Washington Post:

[...] During a pivotal meeting with Merkel, French President François Hollande and European Council President Donald Tusk, Tsipras at one point received a thinly veiled threat that if he walked away and left the euro, Greece risked going it alone geopolitically, too.

According to two officials in Brussels with knowledge of the exchange, the specter was raised of aggression from Turkey — a neighboring nation viewed in Greece as a historic antagonist. [...]

WTFF?

 

[aleCcowaN]

Is it all an ongoing conspiracy theory now?

 

[dudalb]

Yeah, the communist-bloc countries used to kowtow to Moscow. Now Athens will kowtow to Berlin, even when it comes to Greece's parliamentary business.

Why do you just don't get that nobody stuck a gun to the head of the Greek Government and made them overspend,and then borrow the money to overspend?
When Paliamentary business consists of spending other people's money you have just lost a certain amount of independence when it comes to Parliamentary business.

In my opinion, the EU shoud just kick Greece out and let it try to solve it's own problems. It will be fun to see where the Greek Government gets it first loan,though.........

I hate to sound like a broken record, but the basis of the support of the Greek Government by many here is simply they HATE the idea that a government cannot keep spending money they don't have forever without consquences. Trying to deny basis economic rules is just like trying to deny the laws of physical science.
The Soviet Union tried to deny for those laws,and look what happened to it.

 

[GlennB]

I hate to sound like a broken record, but the basis of the support of the Greek Government by many here is simply they HATE the idea that a government cannot keep spending money they don't have forever without consquences.

The best way to prevent that is to stop uttering platitudes.

Have you checked the per capita government debt of the USA, Japan, etc etc?

"Spending money you dont' have" is routine. The conditions under which you do it is critical. Think and read a little instead of being a broken record.

 

[caveman1917]

Syriza a clear and present danger to Greek democracy.

Orwell is still around I see