Global warming discussion IV

Status
Not open for further replies.
I don't want to get into this little tête–à–tête, but it would have probably been more instructive/informative if Archer's papers had been linked or an explanation of the reasoning he uses to derive the carbon lifetime in our planet's active carbon cycle. For instance:

Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/geocarb/archer.2009.ann_rev_tail.pdf
(full paper available for review at above link)

Millennial Atmospheric Lifetime of Anthropogenic CO2
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~victor/archer.subm.clim.change.pdf
(again full paper available for review at the above link)​


Anytime we use popular press quotes, we have to expect a loss of context and qualification, that is why science demands the use of formalized, published statements with all the attendant context and proper qualification of terms and situations. I consider myself lucky to count both David Archer and Raymond Pierrehumbert as acquaintances and the two most important sources and influences in what I know and understand about AGW and Climate Science in general. Their writings (both journal and popular), their lectures (both public and in coursework), and their discussions (both personal and in public - they are both participants at real climate) have, and continue to, shape and refine my considerations and understandings.

There is more fruit in the discussion of their actual published statements and conclusions than there is in the discussion of any journalist's take on the "quoted" researcher's out-of-context blurb,...in my opinion.

Thanks Trakar but don't think I have not taken any look or discussed some of those, even those published just this year -and cited by many- and a few unpublished -and not Internet based or Google reached ;)-

It's a matter of "you need the Doom Day ir order to be doomed". Of course there's a fraction of Cant that remains stuck in the atmosphere once ocean-atmosphere equilibrium in reached. If I am not forgetful, one of your papers set that at around 25% of the total Cant (if a paper doesn't say it's over 20% it's very difficult for it to be published). The problem is: it depends on how far from the original equilibrium you have felt. Those values around 25% are only consistent with carbon emissions rising some 2 or 3% a year non-stop way into the twenty-second century and towards the twenty-third century, then the tautologic "we're doomed if we're doomed" becomes a reality, and those percentages, maybe to be taken seriously.

All those calls for "don't you see this has not way back!" omit that little detail. Their prognoses become wrong the moment mankind does anything, say, what we're being doing the last 10 years and what we're going to do during the next 50.

The give-and-take of papers is common in real scientific environments. Conducted that way, citing journalistic terror and then backing with curricula vitae and papers selected to back a similar position and not to illustrate the knowledge on the subject nor the state of the debate, it is not science but what Jack "College" Six-pack thinks science looks.

Basically the "carbon dioxide is going to stay during millennia" bit comes attached to some parameters taken as a given -basically, the case for uncontrollable emissions- and that is not clearly stated when the bit is used to instil fear and manipulate people into specific actions.

So, this little posting skirmish has had two aspects. The sociological one, which starts with macdoc's "Greenland melting down!?", followed with myself taking one of many points used in the way I've just described and mocking it; macdoc doubling the bet and supporting the bit exactly the way I've just described with argumentum ad verecundiam and argumentum ad googlum, to be followed by myself dismissing it with my usual diplomacy and sweet Latin charm, and so on, and so on. On this sociological aspect I only have to say that I won't remain mute when terror is being instilled or lies are being spread.

The scientific aspect, if anyone is interested, I know that you Trakar are, is about estimating the role of the oceans in the capture of carbon dioxide. Just to start the scientific debate, this is the content of Cant in the ocean according to three different methods. Cant in oceans totals roughly 150 pg if you want to do some checkings.

2uhbhc9.png


2qs3sk2.png


The figures, by definition, offer some interesting insights on the way the oceans manage the new carbon.
 
Something to be careful of is conflating solar activity with solar output. Very different tho there is some small overlap.

The good news from that is we have less of a statistical risk of a civilization killing CME event occurring before we have a chance to harden our systems against it.

http://mic.com/articles/117742/it-may-be-right-about-time-for-a-massive-solar-storm-to-hit-earth

They are a serious risk that we as an industrial civilization are ill prepared for.

The effects on Earth would be disastrous. When a large solar storm collides with Earth's own magnetic atmosphere, it can cause drastic problems (think GPS systems, satellite communications and power grids). Even smaller solar storms mess with airline flights and communication, and widespread power outages inhibit access to clean running water and electric gas.

An extreme solar storm at the level of the Carrington Event could cause a power outage affecting 20 million to 40 million people and, depending on how quickly infrastructure could be replaced, last up to two years, according to the Lloyd's estimate. At the time of the Carrington Event, the telegraph was the only working technological system used to communicate. There were reports of operators getting shocked and burned by sparks emitted from lines, and widespread outages lasted for several days.

To get a sense for how solar storms can affect a more technologically modern society, a slightly smaller geomagnetic storm in March 1989 gives a preview. That storm primarily affected Quebec, caused $6 billion in damages and left millions of people without power for more than nine hours.
 

Lennard, are you aware of who you may be summoning in this thread with those "magnetic" news? :D

The summary didn't pass my basic BS checker which looks for buzzwords, excessive use of adjetivation that adds nothing to the noun or exagerates, and an unstable mix of common words and words that sound "scientific".

Examples: "unprecedentedly accurate", solar "heartbeat".

Besides, there's an assertion that doesn't pass the first reality check: if overall solar activity is to drop 60%, we're not going back to 1645 but to 4475332907 BC, one eon more or less.
 
So, this little posting skirmish has had two aspects. The sociological one, which starts with macdoc's "Greenland melting down!?", followed with myself taking one of many points used in the way I've just described and mocking it; macdoc doubling the bet and supporting the bit exactly the way I've just described with argumentum ad verecundiam and argumentum ad googlum, to be followed by myself dismissing it with my usual diplomacy and sweet Latin charm, and so on, and so on. On this sociological aspect I only have to say that I won't remain mute when terror is being instilled or lies are being spread.

put up or shut Alec....you are attributing statements to me without a shred of basis. Seriously weary of your arrogance.

Carbon is Forever is published in Nature Reports Climate change and the authors are referenced....IF YOU DON"Y AGREE THEN PUBLISH YOUR OWN PAPER OR TAKE THEM ON FACE TO FACE.....

References
Flannery, T. The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change 162 (Atlantic Monthly Press, New York, 2005).
Archer, D. et al. Ann. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc. (in the press).
Archer, D. The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate (Princeton Univ. Press, 2008).
Tyrrell, T., Shepherd, J. G. & Castle, S. Tellus 59, 664–672, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00290.x (2007).
Matthews, H. D. & Caldeira, K. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04705, doi:10.1029/2007GL032388 (2008).
Archer, D. & Brovkin, V. Climatic Change 90, 283–297 (2008).
Mason Inman is a freelance science writer currently based in Pakistan.

Archer is very accessible and I look forward to your contrarian paper and the dialogue with them....if you can't or won't then do your thing and I'll do mine....
Edited by Agatha: 
Removed breach of rule 12


Your cryptic commentary on a major El Nino in progress is a case in point...hints and innuendoes...nothing more. Over and over you repeat this destructive pattern of behaviour and destroy any credibility.....and you've done it again.

Maybe draw some pointers on communication....

My guidebook aims to slay climate science's uncertainty problem

11:13 09 July 2015 by Adam Corner

With crucial climate talks approaching, finding the right language for climate predictions is vital to counter those belittling the science, says the author of a new book designed to help
http://www.newscientist.com/article...ciences-uncertainty-problem.html#.VaGCe2CLhZ8
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lennard, are you aware of who you may be summoning in this thread with those "magnetic" news? :D

Oh well I take full responsibility for that! :rolleyes:

The summary didn't pass my basic BS checker which looks for buzzwords, excessive use of adjetivation that adds nothing to the noun or exagerates, and an unstable mix of common words and words that sound "scientific".

Examples: "unprecedentedly accurate", solar "heartbeat".

Besides, there's an assertion that doesn't pass the first reality check: if overall solar activity is to drop 60%, we're not going back to 1645 but to 4475332907 BC, one eon more or less.

I agree. And as Trakar mentioned I will look forward to some reviews and comments about this study.
 
put up or shut Alec....you are attributing statements to me without a shred of basis. Seriously weary of your arrogance.

Carbon is Forever is published in Nature Reports Climate change and the authors are referenced....IF YOU DON"Y AGREE THEN PUBLISH YOUR OWN PAPER OR TAKE THEM ON FACE TO FACE.....

And you think this makes it true and you right? Amazing!

I thought you would be smarter when a title as "carbon is forever" is involved. You would emphasize the letters but you wouldn't read them. What did they say? you can whip a horse to the water but you can't make it wash its lather.

If you have doubts or something gives you the "criptics" :D, you should ask.
 
Oh well I take full responsibility for that! :rolleyes:



I agree. And as Trakar mentioned I will look forward to some reviews and comments about this study.

I was reading it a bit -a wet chilly Saturday evening here- and it does really look like the explanation of how an FM radio transmission works.
 
Last edited:
Something to be careful of is conflating solar activity with solar output. Very different tho there is some small overlap.

The good news from that is we have less of a statistical risk of a civilization killing CME event occurring before we have a chance to harden our systems against it.

http://mic.com/articles/117742/it-may-be-right-about-time-for-a-massive-solar-storm-to-hit-earth

They are a serious risk that we as an industrial civilization are ill prepared for.

for those that would like a look at some research on this topic;
(btw - I tend to use university research systems to locate and review published journal science, or direct contact and requests for copies of papers from the authors themselves, rather than relying on Google searches ---- that said, when all else fails or I'm looking for copies of the papers that every one can read without having to breach a pay-wall, Google-fu can be a good skill to have in your tool kit!)
:)

Atmospheric impact of the Carrington event solar protons
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD010702/full#jgrd15072-bib-0005 (full paper, open source, at preceding link)

Abstract

[1] The Carrington event of August/September 1859 was the most significant solar proton event (SPE) of the last 450 years, about four times larger than the solar proton fluence of the largest event from the “spacecraft era” (August 1972). Recently, much attention has focused upon increasing our understanding of the Carrington event, in order to better quantify the impact of extreme space weather events. In this study the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry (SIC) model is used to estimate the impact of the Carrington event to the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere, and the disruption to HF communication. We adopt a reported intensity-time profile for the solar proton flux and examine the relative atmospheric response to different SPE-energy spectra, and in particular, the comparatively soft energy spectrum of the August 1972 or March 1991 SPE which is believed to provide the best representation of the Carrington event. Our calculations indicate that large changes in electron density and atmospheric constituents occur during the period of SPE forcing, depending upon the nature of the spectrum and also on the hemisphere considered. However, the most important SPE-driven atmospheric response is an unusually strong and long-lived Ox decrease in the upper stratosphere (Ox levels drop by ∼40%) primarily caused by the very large fluxes of >30 MeV protons. This depletion is an indication of the extreme changes possible for the largest SPE. We find that there are comparatively small long-term differences in the atmospheric and ionospheric response between the 3 suggested SPE spectra.

and just to peak a bit of interest in actually reading this paper, here is amother teaser:

...[3] Recently, much attention has focused upon increasing our understanding of the Carrington event, in order to better quantify what extreme space weather events could do to our current technological society. For example, estimates suggest a potential economic loss of <US$70 billion because of lost revenue (∼US$44 billion) and the cost of replacement of GEO satellites (∼US$24 billion) caused by a “once a century” single storm similar to the Carrington event [Odenwald et al., 2006]. These authors estimate that 80 satellites in low-, medium, and geostationary- Earth orbits might be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event with additional disruptions caused by the failure of many of the satellite navigation systems (e.g., GPS). Ionizing radiation doses from the SPE have been estimated to be as high as 54 krad (Si) [Townsend et al., 2003], levels which are not only highly life-threatening for crews of manned missions, but present a significant hazard to onboard electronics...
 
Papers can broaden the degree of information and tunnel into details which is as it should be.

Summaries and synopis offer an overview that the non-specalist can grasp.

Articles in the likes of New Scientist and Nature Reports Climate change can broaden the implications of new research and fit it to its place in the spectrum of human knowledge and to a degree so the laymen can understand it.

Highly techical papers for instance in say battery technology need translation to potential real world impact and keep those interested abreast of change and especially change with disruptive potential.

More general science communication ...DeGrasse Tyson, Fred Pearce, even BBCs own incredible nature series ( Hidden Kingdoms is gem ) can communicate excitement and wonder to the reader and in doing so enhance their understanding of both science and the world.

Tabloids and others with special interesrs distort the message, use it political or ideological ends....climate science is particularly fraught and exposed to this. Ant-vax is another area of dis-information on a dangerous scale leading in some cases to death ( measles recently)

Debunking these distortions and in some case outright lies requires information to be accurate but understandable at all levels ...one reason the IPCC provides summaries.

Last and in some ways most critical....the point where new scientific knowledge intersects with the political process and the funding for resulting policies ...ie the EPA...or a city looking to anticipate upcoming risks and challenges, or a farm family planning for the future requires vetted information that can be understood by policy makers and those affected by the resulting policy.

There will not be a direct jump from a technical paper to that policy point. Bodies like the IPCC and AMA and many others are tasked to provide that communination channel from research results to policy decisions impacting the public.

It's one reason the muzzling of Canadian scientists by the current gov is met with outrage. It breaks that vital chain.
There always need too be a clear path from accessible original research - much incomprehensible to the layman....through to implications of the research and the policy derived from it.

Each level has different expectations from the public as to knowledge needed to comprehend and support or protest policy decisions. ( competing interests in particular such as watershed protection versus job, energy security from fracking versus environmental damage )

We should not put blind faith in policy makers to get the science information correct without introduced distortions from special interests trying to affect their decision ( EPA versus coal interests for one ).

So we need those various levels of detail and those reasoned interpretations from sources that are trustworthy to usew their knowledge to move information from the detailed research to the broader realm of human knowledge and on to policy derived from that knowledge.

It's multi-tiered....neither just the original paper, nor just the resulting policy are sufficient.
Both need critical examination starting at peer review and moving up through editorial and policy maker ethics to keep the public apprised in a scientifically accurate manner ...yet understandable to the interested public.

Online discussions like this of climate science look at all levels up to and including policy as it's a major concern for all of humanity.

Clarity, not hints and innuendo.
Original source, synopis, summary, editorial, policy....all levels should be open to examination and being able to burrow back from a policy decision to the scietific source for it ...at whatever level the reader chooses.

None is intrinsically more worthy than another....all levels are required to bring new science knowledge through to new policy in a manner not distorted by gov or special interests.

At least with Google and the internet ...there is a chance to look behind the firewalls and government and corporate secrecy. Consider Snowden et al and the honest scientist that busted Big Tobacco.

Some interests including gov do not want public knowledge or even discussion.....it is a challenge to fight that....keep discussion and scientific knowledge in the public sphere.

People need to know AND understand, what research papers tell us.
Trakar is an exemplar of understanding that need and executing it at multiple levels from the primary research to the hands on implications.

Each poster should bear this chain of information in mind...make it accurate, make it understandable, support it with valid references for those that wish to pursue it....and that goes both to source and often to references to resultant policy.

From ozone depletion paper to Montreal Protocol.
 
Last edited:
Something wicked.....

El Nino Starting to Look Wicked — + 5.1 C Spot Anomaly in EPAC

image3.jpg


(It’s getting very hot in El Nino zones 1-3 with a significant +5.1 C spot anomaly just off the South American Coastline. Image source Earth Nullschool.)

It looks like the monster El Nino hinted at in the work of scientist Kevin Trenberth and written about here for the past year and a half may now be starting to show her face.

West winds blowing over Western Pacific waters hit near record strength (for this time of year) and substantial length over the past couple of weeks. Model forecasts mostly all show a strong to unprecedented El Nino peaking out by mid Fall 2015. And now, sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are starting to look freakishly hot.

longish article.
https://robertscribbler.wordpress.c...ing-to-look-nasty-5-1-c-spot-anomaly-in-epac/

take away from the article....

From Kevin Trenberth in 2010 when talking about human heating of the climate system hiding out in the world’s oceans:

“The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later. The reprieve we’ve had from warming temperatures in the last few years will not continue. It is critical to track the build-up of energy in our climate system so we can understand what is happening and predict our future climate.”

With El Nino really starting to look nasty and the world already well into new record hot temperature ranges it certainly looks like Dr. Treberth’s warnings are bearing out in dramatic and unpleasant fashion.

One silver lining in this is it might bring relief for California and the wildfires in BC - perhaps too late for this season tho...

El Niño Forecast Brings California Hope for Drought Relief
A strong El Niño might help ease California's drought
By Andrea Thompson and Climate Central | June 11, 2015

El Niño is gaining steam in the Pacific Ocean and forecasters are now leaning towards it being a strong event, the first since the blockbuster El Niño of 1997-1998. That possibility is again raising the collective hopes of Californians that this winter may finally see some desperately needed precipitation to begin the slow climb out of a historic drought.
more
http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...st-brings-california-hope-for-drought-relief/

anyone have a link to a global view of El Nino's weather impact??
 
Last edited:
Was not aware of that. Completely off topic....try on Mother of Storms for a prescient novel both weather/climate and self driving cars.

the NASA copy of Hansen's projection has been moved to the archives but deSmogBlog still has a copy of it available:

DRAFT March 29, 2006
Spotlight on Global Temperature
by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David Lea and Martin Medina-Elizalde
http://desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/Hansen_Spotlight[1].pdf
 
The large ice covered island that will never melt....:rolleyes:

is...

Climate scientists find tropical storms behind faster Arctic meltdown
Few tropical storms ever make it as far north as Greenland, but the ones that do are inflicting serious change.

New research found that tropical storms making their way as far north as the Arctic are accelerating the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

By: Joby Warrick The Washington Post, Published on Tue Jul 14 2015
Relatively few tropical storms ever make it as far north as Greenland, the ice-covered island that straddles the Arctic Circle east of Canada. But the ones that do appear to be inflicting serious damage — and not just to Greenland.
A study published Monday shows that warm, tropical air masses are accelerating the melting of Greenland’s ice sheets, exacerbating a problem that already is contributing to rising sea levels around the globe. The Greenland Ice Sheet currently covers an area three times the size of Texas. Previous studies have documented rapid melting on the periphery of the ice sheet, which is losing mass at a rate 30 per cent faster than in the late 1970s.

more
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...cal-storms-behind-faster-arctic-meltdown.html
 
The large ice covered island that will never melt....:rolleyes:

is...

Yes, the problem isn't the overall, generally neutral, AGW.
The problem is that we are now entering the first, lagging indicators/consequences of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI). Even overshoot-recovery has consequences and the economic damage is more severe than the immediate return.
 
Yikes - strong non-linear response to warming ...

Ocean warming leads to stronger precipitation extremes
Date:
July 13, 2015
Source:
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)
Summary:
Due to climate change, not only atmospheric, but also oceanic, temperatures are rising. A new study shows that increases in sea surface temperature can contribute to the development of stronger precipitation events.

snip
Simulations of the event with observed sea surface temperatures showed an increase in precipitation intensity of over 300%, compared to comparable simulations using sea surface temperatures representative of the early 1980s. "We were able to identify a very distinct change, which demonstrates that convective precipitation responds with a strong, non-linear signal to the temperature forcing," Prof. Douglas Maraun, co-author of the study added.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150713113349.htm

Problematic for temperate cities to deal with tropical levels of sudden rainfall.
We've seen this in Queensland with Brisbane getting intense rain events that would normally be associated with Cairns which is much closer to the equator.

Cairns infrastructure for handling heavy rains on a regular basis is well established.
Brisbane's is not....cost to the city comes in the form of flood damage and the need to upgrade infrastructure.

Mid latitude Ontario cities have also been hit with intense convective storms delivering a month of rain in a few hours....an expensive event becoming more frequent.

A year after the Toronto flood | Toronto Star
www.thestar.com/business/.../07/.../a_year_after_the_toronto_flood.html
Jul 5, 2014 - Insurers paid out nearly $1 billion to cover the cost of the Toronto flood, as much as they'd spent on weather-related damage across the entire

A billion dollars in damage from T-storms...:boggled:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom