Global warming discussion IV

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The most significant effect of current would-be El Niño (we have to wait two additional months to confirm it) is the weak monsoon in the Indian Subcontinent. The +900 dead in Karachi were because of that, but the most significant effect is a steep drop in food production -and food prices up- that is affecting 1,400 million people.
 
The most significant effect of current would-be El Niño (we have to wait two additional months to confirm it) is the weak monsoon in the Indian Subcontinent. The +900 dead in Karachi were because of that, but the most significant effect is a steep drop in food production -and food prices up- that is affecting 1,400 million people.

I think it's these kind of effects that worry me the most about Global Warming, and at the same time, are the least visible to the deniers.

If you're living in a developed country, with an advanced agricultural system (and large government subsidies of said system), these kinds of events will have less of an effect on you than a subsistence farmer in a developing country. So its much easier to fall for the "increased carbon dioxide is good for plants" and "at least it will be warmer for me" lies.
 
I think it's these kind of effects that worry me the most about Global Warming, and at the same time, are the least visible to the deniers.

If you're living in a developed country, with an advanced agricultural system (and large government subsidies of said system), these kinds of events will have less of an effect on you than a subsistence farmer in a developing country. So its much easier to fall for the "increased carbon dioxide is good for plants" and "at least it will be warmer for me" lies.


This isn't the best analogy for various reasons, but it's like living downstream of a dam during a long-term, constant rain. You can easily forget the worst effect of the rain, because it's being held back and hidden by the dam. The workers at the dam see the reservoir filling up and know that big trouble is coming if things continue as they are, but no one downstream is willing to listen because they don't see a problem.

Then the dam overflows or breaks.
 
I think it's these kind of effects that worry me the most about Global Warming, and at the same time, are the least visible to the deniers.

If you're living in a developed country, with an advanced agricultural system (and large government subsidies of said system), these kinds of events will have less of an effect on you than a subsistence farmer in a developing country. So its much easier to fall for the "increased carbon dioxide is good for plants" and "at least it will be warmer for me" lies.


Some young contrarians located in the USA may see their highlighted wish satisfied beyond their physiological ability to cope with:

NYT said:
A person who is physically active at a wet-bulb temperature of 80 degrees [~26.7° C] will have trouble maintaining a constant core temperature and risks overheating. A sedentary person who is naked and in the shade will run into the same problem at a wet-bulb temperature of 92 degrees [33.3° C]. A wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees [35° C] is lethal after about six hours.

In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, the highest wet-bulb temperatures of the latest heat wave have peaked around 86 degrees [30° C] — levels approaching the worst of the 1995 Midwest heat wave, which set records in the United States for humid heat.
[...]
If we choose not to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases and instead continue to rely upon fossil fuels, the average American could expect to see about 17 dangerously humid days in a typical summer in 2050 and about 35 in 2090.
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity, by Robert Kopp, Jonathan Buzan and Matthew Huber, June 6, 2015
 
AGW denialism is mostly a trait of people from the Anglosphere. Their kind is much less abundant in the rest of the planet.

There is a strong correlation between exposure to Murdoch media and the prevalence of climate denial in a given society.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/...how-can-climate-change-denialism-be-explained

Three conclusions can be drawn from all this. In the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, in recent times, the media has played a major role in legitimising climate change denialism. In these three countries the media has amplified or facilitated the work of the many climate denialist “think tanks”, fossil fuel industry lobbyists and denialist bloggers. And in all these three countries, the influence of the Murdoch media is profound – in Australia with 70% of the major newspaper circulation; in the United Kingdom, with The Times and The Sun; and in the United States with the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post and, above all else, the immensely influential Fox News. Not only do the Murdoch media preach climate change denialism directly throughout the English-speaking world. News Corp also provides this kind of anti-science irrationalism with a kind of faux-respectability that allows its influence to permeate gradually other non-Murdoch-owned organs of the right-leaning and even the centrist media. One of the reasons climate change denialism is strong and growing in the Anglosphere and rather weak in both Europe and the developing world is the different role played by their respective media.
 
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Linking unto what bit_pattern and aleCcowaN have mentioned about the Anglosphere and the exposure to certain media houses.

Here in South Africa the overall impression I get is that the vast majority of people agree that AGW is happening and we need to do something about it.

I had a quick look at the Afriforum stance on Climate change. They are the most main stream body to really represent conservative Afrikaaners in South Africa. Even they are 100% behind the reality of AGW. So it doesn't appear to be just a conservative vs liberal position.

To get back on topic (i.e. science), have the results for the temperatures in June been released yet (the ones that are often quoted in this forum to indicate a record high month)?
 
What seems to be dismissive criticism on my part is just my unkind way to shout "accept it!" because it's the first step in changing it. What does AA step one say?

I was fooling around and sampling our daily update of the GHCNM last Monday and it was about just about 70% complete. I'd say it's coming as bad as latter months. We'll have to wait as usual from today to the end of the month for the provisional values to come.
 
To get back on topic (i.e. science), have the results for the temperatures in June been released yet (the ones that are often quoted in this forum to indicate a record high month)?
NOAA's state of the climate report for each month usually comes out around the 20th of the following month. So the June one will be posted around 20th July.
 
Reality is tho the citizenry of the US has more concern than the Repuglies.


American Opinion on Climate Change Warms Up

Public concern about global warming appears to be on the rise again, after a year of significant declines, according to a new national survey conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

Since January, public belief that global warming is happening rose four points, to 61 percent, while belief that it is caused mostly by human activities rose three points, to 50 percent. The number of Americans who worry about global warming rose three points, to 53 percent. And the number of Americans who said that the issue is personally important to them rose five points, to 63 percent.
- See more at: http://environment.yale.edu/climate...-climate-change-warms-up#sthash.N96yjyoo.dpuf
 
Remember they're not asking the same people. Some of them may have changed their minds but we don't know that. Many (perhaps most) people have no firm opinion or particular interest so when asked they're likely to be strongly influenced by recent events.

Either sampling doesn't work at all and its theoretical basis are wrong or their flat-round-flat thinking is strongly influenced by recent events, which leaves us in the same place: people changing their mind, pulling the petals of a daisy "gravity exists ... gravity doesn't exists ...". Stupidity has gotten too much social leeway nowadays.
 
You need both Royal Crown manufacturing and advertising AND people willing to drink like sponges.

I doubt Big Fuel paying propaganda for vegetarianism is going to achieve half the population adopting it at any given time. There is at least willing complicity.
 
An unusually "cool" day in the World:

2dvub5t.jpg


The typical pattern of El Niño in its beginnings: hot tropics; sometimes business as usual, sometimes temperamental in the rest of the World. As a consequence the average anomaly forecast for today was +0.06°C for the whole planet, +0.54°C for the tropics, therefore, -0.26°C in extra-tropical regions.

This has been the pattern all this season. Rarely a negative extra-tropical anomaly and an average so low like today's, but along those lines. That's why people living at 45°N "need" to be explained why the season is "so cool" while global warming remains certain.
 
An unusually "cool" day in the World:

[qimg]http://i60.tinypic.com/2dvub5t.jpg[/qimg]

The typical pattern of El Niño in its beginnings: hot tropics; sometimes business as usual, sometimes temperamental in the rest of the World. As a consequence the average anomaly forecast for today was +0.06°C for the whole planet, +0.54°C for the tropics, therefore, -0.26°C in extra-tropical regions.

This has been the pattern all this season. Rarely a negative extra-tropical anomaly and an average so low like today's, but along those lines. That's why people living at 45°N "need" to be explained why the season is "so cool" while global warming remains certain.

Looks like a few rough spots down on the Antarctic coasts.
 
After Paris it could have something to work with, since that will either fail and we can all throw our hands up, or will set the course for at least the next decade.

By the way, our mischievous Niño is planning an advertising campaign of grand proportions for that event.

[Woooowwww! Forecasts in this post updated. Holly Molly guacamole! It looks baaaaaaadddd! Showing the Kid bouncing back, what we had over here but said "neeehhh! check our models, they are experimental!"]
 
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