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Moderated JFK conspiracy theories: it never ends III

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I was just incredibly lucky that two of the most brilliant scientists of the 20th century, identified a loud and startling noise at exactly that frame.

Asked and answered. A qualification in a particular science is not necessarily an shelter-all umbrella of comprehensive knowledge or expertise. Neither of the physicists you cite were forensic investigators, nor were writing in the normal mode of their discipline. Science is not defined by having been conducted by people who are deemed scientists, but by whether or not the process and product conform to the scientific method.

Further, you have no qualms disagreeing with your "brilliant scientists" when it suits you. So fair treatment suggests we are not necessarily bound to consider them any more authoritative on some point than you are on your points of disagreement with them.

I was even luckier that every nonvictim in the limousine began to duck or spin around...

A perceived motion which you simply declare exists and declare is a startle reaction. Although you invoke the standard authors when discussing the alleged startle, you omit the difference between what they define as a startle and what you describe as a startle in the film. You don't get to define any old motion as a startle when your authors were explicit on what that means.

...Zapruder reacted at the same frame in which the passengers began to react.

They "confirmed" nothing. Confirmation would be in the form of empirical tests showing that startle stimulus results in the observed effect in a photographer.

Further, you interpolated the notion of perceived degree of reaction being somehow proportional to the degree of stimulus. The standard authors not only found no such correlation, but also no variance in the startle reaction for which a correlation could even apply.

And thank God that the wheel didn't land on a lower number, or I would have been in contradiction to the large consensus of witnesses that the final shots were closely bunched...

Asked and answered. You impose your interpretation of "closely bunched" as a certain specific window of time. The nature of the witness testimony does not support that restriction, and it is exactly that foisted restriction that you rely upon to eliminate Oswald and support your hypothesis.

It it hadn't been for my crazy, wild, good fortune, I would have had to make up evidence to support my theory.

That is effectively what you did. Citing evidence and then making a non sequitur assertion is tantamount to making stuff up. Just because you package it with the evidence doesn't mean it necessarily follows from it.
 
Mr. Harris:

Have been able to contact Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Eric Lipton (c/o The New York Times at (212) 556-1234)?

No, I haven't and I probably won't for awhile. My experience has been that none of the major newspapers will even consider JFK conspiracy theories these day.

Do you have reason to believe that this person might be more open-minded on this?
 
Whole lot of special pleading here.
You mean a custom installation. Check Youtube. You will find a small army of people who have installed very effective suppressors made from flashlights, oil filters, beer cans and other equally exotic items. Watch this video of a guy using an oil filter. Move the timer to 1:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haiqFcIXTqs

Making an effective suppressor is not that difficult.

Stop. Before you hurt yourself.

There have been very few effective supressed rifles. The older models block the sights due to the size needed to supress the shot to quiet levels and require that you use subsonic rounds to get the noise levels down to levels where people won't notice. The OSS and SOE used a number of silenced weapons in WWII but those had a major flaw for shooting - they were pistol calibre weapons and at ranges of more than a few tens of metres were not very accurate.


That is incorrect. We have no idea what the caliber was of the apparent missed shot circa 150-160. Nor do we know the caliber of the shot that caused James Tague's minor wound and smear on the Main St. curbing. And CE399 could not possibly have been the bullet that wounded Connally and probably JFK. That fact was confirmed by Connally himself, the Dallas DA Henry Wade and the officer who was guarding Connally's room. It was further confirmed by half a dozen others. This article explains in detail. PLEASE read it in it's entirety. The evidence in this article is extremely important.

http://jfkhistory.com/bell/bellarticle/BellArticle.html

The only shots that we have evidence for came from Oswald's rifle - there is no evidence of more than three shots. You have guesses based on what you think the reaction of people should be.

It is true that fragments found in the limo were alleged to be a match with Oswald's rifle, which may be because he actually fired that shot. But it's important to remember that to accept that, one must have a certain amount of faith in the FBI, that they presented the actual fragments, which might be a bit hard to muster after reading that article.

We shouldn't trust law enforcement, but an internet guy over 50 years later without any actual physical evidence should be allowed to disregard the physical evidence we have?

No sir. This was not the Green Berets. This was a few thugs whose plan was to start firing when the target came in range. No communication or coordination was necessary. Do you think the Mafia required walky-talkies on the their other hits?

Why go with multiple shooters when one would do? The more people aware of an event, the more that can tell.

If you think you need more than one guy to do a job, then they had better be able to communicate or have a plan, othewise you run the risk of one backing out, etc.

Yes. Oswald was not recruited for his shooting skills. He was recruited for his communist/Cuban legend. If the crime could be blamed on a commie who was a leader in the FPCC, perhaps the US would declare war on Cuba and get rid of Castro, freeing the mob to re-establish their lucrative casino business. So, it was important that Oswald or someone, made sure he left a large evidence trail.

Oswald was a disgruntled american, he couldn't lead his way out of a wet paperbag.

The issue isn't LHO, it is your other alleged shooter. No Physical evidence of the shooting location, no ballistic evidence of the shot, etc.

And the plan almost worked. The DPD in fact, stated in their indictment of Oswald that he was part of an international communist conspiracy.

And then dropped it when they realized that there was no evidence to back that story up.

No sir, the last suppressed shot that I can see, was at 223, when the limo was about 100 feet from the Daltex. After that, the high powered rifles took over and were extremely loud. Of course, they were not suppressed.

Given that the person you are alleging was firing a suppressed weapon so effective that no one could hear it, why would "they" give one such weapon to a shooter, and an un-suppressed weapon to someone else? Particularly if the weapons use different ammo. Two different weapons lead to two different shooters being id'd. And of course if the intent is to make sure only one person takes the fall, then why have someone else in on it?

If you have to invent new weapons, a second shooter, and imply that the physical evidence shouldn't be trusted because the FBI may have tampered with it (even though the DPD collected it), then you will likely not be believed.
 
It only demonstrates that I am not psychic and cannot consider shots that may have been inaudible.

No one is asking you to be psychic. They are, however, asking you to reconcile this fuzzy aspect of your claim with your prior assurance that all of your claims were based on verifiable, objective evidence.

It's okay for there to be holes in your theory; they'll be fairly considered in the comparative analysis. It's just not okay for you to pretend they aren't there, in order to make that analysis come out better than it should.

I cannot give you a list of confirmed locations, since I have no way of confirming them...

That's just a euphemistic way of saying you cannot support your claims with evidence. It's okay to acknowledge that there's no way to test some part of your claim. But you have to concede in that case that you don't get to insist that ambiguity resolves in your favor.

just as you have no way of confirming with certainty, that Oswald fired shots that day.

Rail split. You are undoubtedly familiar with the body of evidence showing Oswald to be a person who fired successfully at Kennedy. It rises to a certain level of credibility, in an affirmative manner. There is no quantitative equivalence whatsoever between that and your inability to provide any affirmative (i.e., non-inferential) evidence for any of your hypothetical locations.

In straw-man fashion, you propose a standard of proof ("confirmation") that you're sure neither hypothesis can meet, only so you can suggest that you're no worse off than the conventional narrative. That ignores the very real difference between the evidence the conventional narrative can mount for its identification of the sniper's nest, and yours.

I have no way of calculating a probability, but I consider the Daltex to be almost a certainty...

This is an inherent contradiction. If you cannot give any sort of quantitative argument for your assessment of probability, then you can't credibly assert the probability must be high enough to be "almost a certainty." That's just wishful thinking.
 
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Still wondering why, exactly, you seem to think that constantly doing this helps your case. It never has in the past.

I disagree. After more than 12 million views of my presentations on the JFK case, I have had a very high percentage of approvals and private messages, from doctors, academics and other well educated individuals who also agreed.

I have no doubt that there are members here and lurkers who are a bit more objective and willing to evaluate the evidence, which many of you refuse to even discuss.

But the genuine skeptics tend to be a much quieter bunch - more reflective and thoughtful. They don't try to shout down people who disagree and they are ONLY concerned about the verifiable evidence, rather than the messenger.

This is why I want to make sure that everyone, including late-comers have an opportunity to examine my articles and presentations.
 
If I may speculate:

Excellent analysis, as usual, Jay.

Now if only RH would give a straight answer to any one way of the many and varied ways he has been asked to state and justify even a basic contention of his beliefs. Well, we all know the answer that will come, a link and a begged question. But we on the ISF must ultimately live with hope, less cynicism take over our lives.:)
 
No, I haven't and I probably won't for awhile.

What exactly are you waiting for?

My experience has been that none of the major newspapers will even consider JFK conspiracy theories these day.

Do you have reason to believe that this person might be more open-minded on this?

It seems you are presuming that the only conceivable reason he would reject your theory is that he is not open-minded.

I suggested a while back at aaj that you present your theory about a shot around Z-frame 285 to former Washington Post reporter (and former columnist for my employer, The Nation—lonnng ago, but I remember) Jefferson Morley, and he gave it some play at the CT-friendly website he runs now. I don't think he was convinced, though. Is this because he doesn't have an open mind?

If you maintain that conspiracists do not have an open mind because they all want to "solve the case" themselves, and that non-conspiracists do not have an open mind just because they are non-conspiracists... well, then I guess you can convince or at least tantalize someone who has never heard of the assassination or somehow has no opinion at all. But then it's likely they won't know enough about the matter for their assessment to be worth much.
 
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I disagree. After more than 12 million views...

Appeal to the gallery. What makes you think rounds of informal approval are a measure of your argument's logical strength?

I have no doubt that there are members here and lurkers who are a bit more objective and willing to evaluate the evidence, which many of you refuse to even discuss.

You may continue to requisition an audience more favorable to your beliefs, but in the meantime you should be prepared to deal with the audience as it stands.

But the genuine skeptics tend to be a much quieter bunch - more reflective and thoughtful.

I don't consider you an expert on skepticism. I don't consider your judgment to be particularly well-informed whether your critics here have been suitably "reflective and thoughtful."

They don't try to shout down people who disagree and they are ONLY concerned about the verifiable evidence, rather than the messenger.

As many have noted, you don't seem to be able to discern very well whether someone is attacking your argument or your person. This has led to you rejecting inappropriately some very valid criticism.

This is why I want to make sure that everyone, including late-comers have an opportunity to examine my articles and presentations.

Asked and answered. An even cursory perusal of the thread reveals them to be regulars in this thread, many of whom have specifically stated they have read the scrollback. Constantly appealing to phantom lurkers rather than addressing real and present critics smacks of evasion.
 
This is why I want to make sure that everyone, including late-comers have an opportunity to examine my articles and presentations.

As long as we all know it's link spamming.

Why won't you answer questions, Robert? What did the FBI do with all of the objective, verifiable evidence you presented to them? What did they do with the YouTube links?
 
But there is no reason why you cannot try to refute my arguments in that presentation, either by citing me or referencing specific sections by the timer.

Because I am interested in understanding what you say and why you think it is right. Unlike many of the people here, I shied away from debate class in high school.

My later experience at judging high school debate reinforced the rightness of this decision because it showed that even today I could not keep up in opposing those "kids" in a debate. But is was fun to be with kids that have such passion and dedication to explaining their positions. The future belongs to them. And I managed twice to be a judge in the Humorous Interpretation final.
 
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I disagree. After more than 12 million views of my presentations on the JFK case, I have had a very high percentage of approvals and private messages, from doctors, academics and other well educated individuals who also agreed.

I have no doubt that there are members here and lurkers who are a bit more objective and willing to evaluate the evidence, which many of you refuse to even discuss.

But the genuine skeptics tend to be a much quieter bunch - more reflective and thoughtful. They don't try to shout down people who disagree and they are ONLY concerned about the verifiable evidence, rather than the messenger.

This is why I want to make sure that everyone, including late-comers have an opportunity to examine my articles and presentations.


[delurk]I find your theories utterly unconvincing, and your methodology hopelessly flawed. I generally agree with the criticism of the foregoing that has been expressed by many other posters. Further, I disagree with your insinuation that you've been "shout[ed] down" and with most of your complaints of having been personally attacked.[/delurk]
 
Whole lot of special pleading here.

Stop. Before you hurt yourself.

I appreciate your concern.

There have been very few effective supressed rifles.

That's interesting, perhaps you should write to the US military, and every other military organization on the planet, which uses them frequently in sniper operations.

So do numerous police forces in this country.

And BTW, would you mind linking a source which confirms

Sure, I thought I already did though.

http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Silencers.aspx

And in this article by Mark White, who writes almost exclusively for the law enforcement community, he discusses the advantages and pitfalls of various types of suppressors in police work.

http://www.silencerresearch.com/sound_suppressors_on_high_powered_rifles.htm

The older models block the sights due to the size needed to supress the shot to quiet levels and require that you use subsonic rounds to get the noise levels down to levels where people won't notice.

True enough, which is probably why one of the early shots seems to have missed the entire limousine and the next, struck JFK's back, roughly 8-9 inches below the center of the head, which was undoubtedly, the intended target.

And if you read Mr. White's article, you will also see that even the slightest misalignment will cause wild misses, which is exactly what happened with at least one of the early shots, and probably two.

The OSS and SOE used a number of silenced weapons in WWII but those had a major flaw for shooting - they were pistol calibre weapons and at ranges of more than a few tens of metres were not very accurate.

Yes, I see no evidence of suppressed shots being fired after frame 223, when the limo was about 100 feet from the Daltex. After that, the unsuppressed, high powered rifles were fired.

The only shots that we have evidence for came from Oswald's rifle - there is no evidence of more than three shots. You have guesses based on what you think the reaction of people should be.

You only have legitimate evidence for one shot having come from Oswald's rifle and that was the frags from inside the limousine, and even that is only legitimate if you have faith that the FBI turned over the correct fragments - something akin to faith that Mohammad flew around on a magic horse.

Would you like to talk about CE399?

We shouldn't trust law enforcement,

I absolutely trust law enforcement, unless I find conclusive evidence not to.

Would you like talk about CE399 and the FBI's involvement with it?

but an internet guy over 50 years later without any actual physical evidence should be allowed to disregard the physical evidence we have?

Please be specific about what "physical evidence" you have.

And if you had read my article on CE399, you would know that I presented very solid physical evidence that CE399 was not the same bullet that Daryl Tomlinson recovered. Both Secret Service agent Richard Johnsen and FBI Elmer Todd, stated that they marked the bullet that Tomlinson found, but when John Hunt went to the N.A. and examined four quarter-turn images of CE399, he found only the initials of FBI lab personnel. Neither Johnsen's or Todd's were anywhere to be found.

http://jfkhistory.com/bell/bellarticle/initials.png

Of course, the actual bullet that wounded Connally and probably JFK, fell from Connally's stretcher and was recovered by a nurse, just before he went into surgery. That fact was confirmed by Connally himself, DA Henry Wade and Bobby Nolan, the officer who was guarding Connally's room at the time.

Please read this article. It really is worth the trouble.

http://jfkhistory.com/bell/bellarticle/BellArticle.html

Why go with multiple shooters when one would do?

Because the evidence proves that Oswald couldn't have fired all the shots. And that trumps all.

The more people aware of an event, the more that can tell.

If you think you need more than one guy to do a job, then they had better be able to communicate or have a plan, othewise you run the risk of one backing out, etc.

They didn't need communications and their plan was undoubtedly, start shooting when he comes into range.

Oswald was a disgruntled american, he couldn't lead his way out of a wet paperbag.

I doubt that he was a leader, but he had something much more valuable - a communist legend, which gave him the ability to make everyone believe that Castro was behind the assassination.

The issue isn't LHO, it is your other alleged shooter. No Physical evidence of the shooting location, no ballistic evidence of the shot, etc.

That is untrue. Read the article I linked and you will see solid evidence that other bullets were involved in the shooting.

Given that the person you are alleging was firing a suppressed weapon so effective that no one could hear it, why would "they" give one such weapon to a shooter, and an un-suppressed weapon to someone else?

Excellent question. Of course, not having been privy to their meetings and plans, I can only suggest what the evidence and logic suggests is what happened.

I think the hope was that the sniper(s?) with the suppressed weapon would kill Kennedy, firing from close range. But the shooter seems to have had problems with his weapon, perhaps caused by a slight misalignment. He gave up after the limo went beyond 100 feet from him.

After that, it was obvious that JFK was damaged but still alive. So, the high powered rifles were fired. The 285 shot missed entirely, but as well know, the one at 313 was perfect.

Do you understand why the fact that the inaudible or almost inaudible, early shots were only fired when the limo was no more than 100 feet from the Daltex, is important?


Particularly if the weapons use different ammo. Two different weapons lead to two different shooters being id'd. And of course if the intent is to make sure only one person takes the fall, then why have someone else in on it?

Why would they care about that? Their motive was obviously, to make it appear that the assassination was a communist conspiracy.

The LN theory was not the invention of the perps. It was the product of LBJ, who did not want to face a crisis which might have led to WWIII, since Russia had sworn to defend Cuba. Consider this proclamation from Katzenbach, and the justice department, uttered within about 2 days after the assassination,

"The public must be satisfied that Oswald was the assassin; that he did not have confederates who are still at large; and that the evidence was such that he would have been convicted at trial."

And consider the embarrassment of the US government, trying to keep the moral high ground in light of the fact that they had been trying to assassinate Castro for nearly a year.

There was a massive coverup, but it may have been benign, at least as far as LBJ knew.

If you have to invent new weapons,

I would love to take credit for that but Hiram Maxim beat me to it by a scant, 107 years. Sir, do you really think that exaggerating or misrepresenting my statements is a good way to evaluate this case?

a second shooter, .

I did not "invent" anyone or anything. The ridiculously obvious difference of the reactions to the early shots, from the reactions to the later ones, proves beyond any reasonable doubt that they came from different weapons. Check it out yourself. Show me reactions to any of the early shots (pre 285) that are even remotely similar to these:

http://jfkhistory.com/ducking3.gif

Now, consider that the earliest shots would have been the loudest and most startling to the limo passengers. Their early reactions should have been more dramatic than that later ones.


and imply that the physical evidence shouldn't be trusted because the FBI may have tampered with it (even though the DPD collected it), then you will likely not be believed.

It is irrelevant that the DPD handled some of the evidence before the FBI did. Almost all of it remained in envelopes, uninspected before it was confiscated.

The FBI has been caught before, falsifying evidence, even when the director had not given orders that they come to a predefined conclusion.

But what matters most is the evidence. Look at the article, then ask me questions or debate with me about it. I think you will find that based on that evidence, the conclusion is inescapable.
 
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I do seem to glean, however, that the scenario we're offered now requires a specialist weapon (subsonic and suppressed, and probably with a short range and mediocre accuracy as a consequence) to be placed in the hands of some thug rather than a skilled sharpshooter, even though it's to be fired from a greater range than Oswald shot from.

These days a suppressed firearm shooting a subsonic accurate cartridge is not hard to obtain. If I had to choose a firearm to kill someone driving by the TSBD I'd use an ar-15 chambered in 300 Blackout. I could have filled the limo with holes by dumping a high capacity magazine into it. People near by are going to hear it, but they might not know it is weapons fire right away.

Back in 1963 however options were much more limited. A military rifle using high speed ammo weighing 130-180 grains is going to have a twist rate intended for supersonic bullets. While it is simple to reduce the powder charge in a cartridge to reduce speed to about 1000 feet per second, the standard twist rate will not properly stabilize the bullet. Accuracy will suffer and if a silencer is used baffle strikes may occur. Using an over bore silencer to eliminate baffle strikes lets out more noise.

So back in the 60's the readily available suppressed rifles were most likely those like a bolt action rifle (Mauser types) shooting standard ammo or an Enfield re-chambered in 45 acp and genuinely much less noisy but accurate only to about 50 yards or so. As slick as the Dellisle Commando Carbine is to shoot, it would not be my weapon of choice if I was in Oswald's shoes.

I've been trying to explain some of this stuff to RH since he sent me a PM inviting me to view some stuff. It seems I've been on his ignore list since then. :)

Ranb
 
<snip for brevity>
As many have noted, you don't seem to be able to discern very well whether someone is attacking your argument or your person. This has led to you rejecting inappropriately some very valid criticism.
I read it all, but post infrequently. It seems to me that the proposition offered is considered very much part and parcel of the personality offering it. This might account for the, umm, confusion about what is and is not ad hom.
 
These days a suppressed firearm shooting a subsonic accurate cartridge is not hard to obtain. If I had to choose a firearm to kill someone driving by the TSBD I'd use an ar-15 chambered in 300 Blackout. I could have filled the limo with holes by dumping a high capacity magazine into it. People near by are going to hear it, but they might not know it is weapons fire right away.

Yes, but what if the shooter wasn't thrilled with the notion of being spotted and drawing return from from a small army of Secret Service agents, deputies, police officers and even highway patrol officers?

It's hard to find places to spend that big paycheck in prison, especially on death row, and harder yet if you've been shot to death.

Back in 1963 however options were much more limited. A military rifle using high speed ammo weighing 130-180 grains is going to have a twist rate intended for supersonic bullets. While it is simple to reduce the powder charge in a cartridge to reduce speed to about 1000 feet per second, the standard twist rate will not properly stabilize the bullet. Accuracy will suffer and if a silencer is used baffle strikes may occur. Using an over bore silencer to eliminate baffle strikes lets out more noise.

Why not use a weapon that was designed for subsonic bullets? And the mob would have made their own suppressors, rather than buying commercial units that were traceable.

As we see in the videos, numerous people made their own, very effective suppressors out of flashlights, oil filters and beer cans. I suspect that with a little effort, the mob could have done at least as well.

So back in the 60's the readily available suppressed rifles were most likely those like a bolt action rifle (Mauser types) shooting standard ammo or an Enfield re-chambered in 45 acp and genuinely much less noisy but accurate only to about 50 yards or so.

I doubt that they would have used, "readily available" weapons. Why wouldn't they have mounted a suppressor on a weapon that met there particular needs?

As slick as the Dellisle Commando Carbine is to shoot, it would not be my weapon of choice if I was in Oswald's shoes.

I can't be certain, but I have serious doubts that Oswald used a suppressed weapon.

I've been trying to explain some of this stuff to RH since he sent me a PM inviting me to view some stuff. It seems I've been on his ignore list since then. :)

Hmm.. no, I never put you on my ignore list. But I've been bombarded by a LOT of posts. If I haven't replied to something you feel is important, please repost it.

And thank you for presenting honest, evidence based arguments.
 
[delurk]I find your theories utterly unconvincing, and your methodology hopelessly flawed. I generally agree with the criticism of the foregoing that has been expressed by many other posters. Further, I disagree with your insinuation that you've been "shout[ed] down" and with most of your complaints of having been personally attacked.[/delurk]


Thank you for that very specific, detailed analysis. I really liked the flowers too.

Have a great day, sir!
 
Because I am interested in understanding what you say and why you think it is right. Unlike many of the people here, I shied away from debate class in high school.

You missed out on a marvelous experience. I had enormous fun, not only debating, but in partying with opponents (a lot of girls debated too) on weekend tournaments.

My only regret was catching some kind of laryngitis, just before the state finals. I always wondered if that was psychosomatic, but I don't think so.

My later experience at judging high school debate reinforced the rightness of this decision because it showed that even today I could not keep up in opposing those "kids" in a debate. But is was fun to be with kids that have such passion and dedication to explaining their positions. The future belongs to them. And I managed to twice be a judge in the Humorous Interpretation final.

I couldn't agree more about explaining my position. That's why I went to a great deal of work to create that presentation, not just to get it out to the world, but to have something to present in forums that would free me from having to write a small book, that would still have fallen short of explaining the analyses and evidence that drove me to my conclusions.

Look man. The presentation is the BEST way to present my case. That's the bottom line.
 
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You missed out on a marvelous experience. I had enormous fun, not only debating, but in partying with opponents (a lot of girls debated too) on weekend tournaments.

Hey, where are the womenfolk in this thread?

Conspicuous in their absence, I must say. What's that about?

Sauf pour la judicieuse Agatha, who drops in here only to keep us in line.
 
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