Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[aleCcowaN]

Another smart move and I'm sure we'll hear from him. He has all the internal meetings on tape and as a private citizen nobody can blame him for bringing deceitfulness of certain individuals to the public's attention, can they?

And me thinking it was only the Church who had saints and liturgy.

 

[aleCcowaN]

No, it's true even if the banking system in Greece is destroyed, as this "positive money" BS implies.

McHrozni

Trying to block out the sun with one hand? Where's your reasoned explanation about that? Please, provide that to the discussion and don't double the bet. There's no such thing as a "dismissal by tantrum".

 

[aleCcowaN]

Reintroduction of Drachma could have a positive net effect on Greece in the longer term. But, in all likelihood, not under Syriza.

Nor under anyone, in the short term. Roosevelt took pretty right steps, and yet 1933 was the worst year of the crisis.

Economic adjustment depends much on foreign trade: imports react immediately and cause recession and a huge dent in public incomes, exports and substitution of imports are to react slower. In an economy the size and dynamism like Greece's, 12 to 30 months.

The other foot is capital flow. If capital continue to massively flee Greece, it will take more time. And no government makes any difference; they'll flee from Syriza's or take advantage of the holes more palatable Néa Demokratía creates trying to normalize the markets. And they'll certainly flee from any vanilla unity government.

In this, the ECB's ways trying to reclaim its ELA can make a big hole or save Greece from it. If the ECB has some leniency, they may be growing really fast in 3 years from now, and they'll get all their ELA back in 5 or 6 years.

The problem is, will they allow the bad example to spread?

 

[aleCcowaN]

I'm going to miss this guy

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/p...s-yanis-varoufakiss-best-quotes-10367973.html

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Surely, that "awful little man" bit of his

 

[bit_pattern]

Surely, that "awful little man" bit of his

Indeed! It gave me some special feels

 

[aleCcowaN]

So did the rest of Europe, letting Greece join in the first place.

I would word it this way: Who designed a one-size-fits-everybody garment can't complain about the shortest member of the group dragging the fringe of her skirt on the dirty floor... the dry-cleaning bill is for the whole family to pay.

 

[aleCcowaN]

My big questions are these:
1) what happens if the euro can no longer guarantee perpetuity?
2) what happens if the USD surpasses the euro in value (1$ = 0.91€ as of today)

1) Nothing guarantees "perpetuity". If you are thinking in the stability of the Euro, it should had been restricted to Germany, Germanic countries, germanized countries and France. That way it would've become the strong currency it was geopolitically designed to be.

The UK drove itself apart, but they decided not to let aside Italy, one of the original 6, and they adopted later the stance of "the more, the merrier". The worst it can happen is the Euro to become that strong leading currency it was meant to be.

2) You have your figures swapped: 1$ = 0.91€. And I tell you the things don't work that magical way of "surpass or being surpassed". Anyway, if you don't want to take my word for it, the Euro started as 1€ = 0.88$, so it still has strengthened some 25% since its inception 15 year ago. For stable almost inflation-less economies, that's looks darn good value for me.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Greek 10-year bonds dropping and yield raising up to 17%. Great opportunity to bet a few bucks within a balanced portfolio and do Greece a favour in the way.

I forgot Greek residents can sell their Greek bonds and get some cash out of the Greek system, another form of capital fleeing the country.

There are probably pension funds selling Greek bonds for whatever they get, because regulations prevent them from keeping shares or bonds that drop bellow certain risk categories -some bonds were awarded a "junk bond" grade last week-.

So, if you have a 200,000 maravedis portfolio (with maravedis meaning dollars -the main 3 or 4 of them-, pounds or euros) and you apply some healthy 10-15% in assorted risky investments (those which become 4 wins and 1 lose of each 5), think of getting 1,000 or 2,000 of Greek long-term bonds.

 

[GlennB]

A few interesting developments today:

IMF "stands ready to assist Greece" Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has just issued a short statement on Greece:

“The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so.”

Meanwhile, the main Greek opposition parties (Golden Dawn not invited, I believe the communists declined) have signed up to a joint accord with Syriza:

That will be a written assurance that the opposition leaders support Tsipras in his negotiations with creditors, Kammonos says - along with a reference to debt relief.

So 'regime change' seems to be in the dustbin for a good while at least.

And Tsipras had a phone conversation with Putin.

 

[Caper]

Without having a clue how they will get there, I feel that at some point I will be reading an article on the Greek economic miracle. Like they hit a bottom that somehow will make them bounce back.

 

[aleCcowaN]

And Tsipras had a phone conversation with Putin.

The conversation probably was

«
-How is the weather in Moscow?
-It's drizzling, and in Athens?
-A nice Summer day.
-I am going to say that I expressed the concern of my government about the local situation, and that the Russian people backs their Greek brothers and sisters who decided to say "No" to mnshhnlmlkmlmlm-ation!
-I am going to say that I informed President Putin about the last developments and we share concerns as we analysed together the most recent developments.
-Bye, then.
-Bye
»

Geopolitical poses.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Without having a clue how they will get there, I feel that at some point I will be reading an article on the Greek economic miracle. Like they hit a bottom that somehow will make them bounce back.

I bet we'll do. But some 7 or 8 years are to pass by.

 

[Oystein]

...Varouf... whatever, I've already forgotten him, was good to take the decision and make the first incision. The rest of the surgery and the probable chain of surgeries following is to be done by more expert hands.

Are you saying Varoufakis isn't an expert? He is a professor of economics, with expertise in econometrics, game theory, the finance aspects of foreign trade. He was probably one of the most expert finance ministers in Europe.
Less expert at doing politics, winning key support and smooth communication perhaps.

So why do you expect more "expert" hands - expert in what, exactly?

 

[GlennB]

Geopolitical poses.

Yes, though they might have discussed Orthodox Church icons and ceremonies.

 

[GlennB]

Are you saying Varoufakis isn't an expert? He is a professor of economics, with expertise in econometrics, game theory, the finance aspects of foreign trade. He was probably one of the most expert finance ministers in Europe.
Less expert at doing politics, winning key support and smooth communication perhaps.

So why do you expect more "expert" hands - expert in what, exactly?

New FinMin Euclid Tsakalotos^WP has a mere PhD in economics from Oxford and a wealth of experience. If the Troika think they've got some breathing space with the new man then it will only be because Tsakalotos is a notch or two quieter.

 

[jaydeehess]

Without having a clue how they will get there, I feel that at some point I will be reading an article on the Greek economic miracle. Like they hit a bottom that somehow will make them bounce back.

Almost certainly. At some point Greek industry will work its way back up while the financial circles are still leary of Greek investment. Smart money will then invest while stock prices remain relatively low.
OR
Greece will slide into anarchy, with completely ineffective government. Investment money will stay small.

 

[jaydeehess]

I think the Greek People..and a lot of people on this forum...are going to get a harsh lesson in economic realities.
I still maintains what it amounts to is people hoping there is a way for massive deficit spending by a government to continue forever without consequence.

That's what I have been saying all along. "No" only means that recovery will have to be Greek made. That may be good in the long run, but almost ensures it will be a long time coming. Both "yes" and "no" meant cutbacks on spending by government, perhaps sell off of government assets.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Are you saying Varoufakis isn't an expert? He is a professor of economics, with expertise in econometrics, game theory, the finance aspects of foreign trade. He was probably one of the most expert finance ministers in Europe.
Less expert at doing politics, winning key support and smooth communication perhaps.

So why do you expect more "expert" hands - expert in what, exactly?

Now it's time for those who know deeply the inner working of the markets to dive in. An academic and expert in econometrics is not what's required. We had and have those here. In 1982 I had to studied the national accounts system by a local braniac, a high official of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic -143 items by heart-. He became our Minister of Economy in 1988 and invented the "Springtime Plan", a so successful one that exploded in 1989's Autumn and Winter hyperinflation. Now he have another brainiac with doctorates and knowing all the corners of universities' halls here and there, and he started with a devaluation that only the new president of the Central Bank could stop by doing the contrary. Both are cases of theoretic brainiacs that are given whole countries' economies to do their field practice and learn by trial and error. Not a good choice.

You'll have to trust me that having I lived through major crisis: Rodrigazo, End of "tablita", explosion of Austral Plan, hyperinflation and collapse of the Currency Board System (50% like the current Greek crisis), and maybe 20 more bumps and short-lived mini-crisis, I have a certain knack to spot who "tiene las uñas de guitarrero" (as I explained earlier). This Yanus guy is also too direct and I don't think he says what he says because he's planning Grexit and telling otherwise. A group of stealthy, knowledgeable, practical, market understanding, low profile economist are needed now. Within left-wingers those qualities are not found in abundance.

 

[dudalb]

That's what I have been saying all along. "No" only means that recovery will have to be Greek made. That may be good in the long run, but almost ensures it will be a long time coming. Both "yes" and "no" meant cutbacks on spending by government, perhaps sell off of government assets.

And that is the cold,hard, reality that the Hard Left does not want to believe.

 

[aleCcowaN]

The tap starts to turn off: ECB keeping assistance at the same level but valuing Greek assets less. In practical terms "no soup for you".

Meanwhile, Merkel and Hollande joined press conference: Tsipras has to act quickly. The doors are not closed yet.