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Moderated JFK conspiracy theories: it never ends III

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This may seem like a simple question, but the answer is not.

Exactly. That's why real science is hard.

As I explain in the presentation, I feel that third floor of the Daltex is the most likely location for the for the sniper who fired the early shots, which were not nearly as loud as those at the end.

And what evidence of a second sniper's nest was found there?

I am not so certain about the final shots, which is why I devoted a fairly lengthy segment in the presentation, to what I feel are the most likely locations.

So no, then, you don't know where the shots were fired from. You haven't produced a testable hypothesis for it and then gone on to test it. This is why your hypothesis doesn't deserve as much respect as others that were tested.

There seems to be a rule around here, which prohibits you guys from being specific about anything. Why can't you address what I actually say, verbatim?

Two reasons. First and easiest, you've demonstrated you don't respond to them.

Second, you throw around "verbatim" as if we should be able to find some quotable sentence or statement that, by itself, expresses some glaring fault. The majority of your errors are errors in reasoning, which require examination at the conceptual level, and in the broader context of what you've said here and elsewhere.

I am only "begging the question", if I have not presented solid evidence that my presumption is correct.

No. Many of your statements are phrased as complex-question fallacies, which effectively beg the premise. You don't even have to state the premise explicitly to have begged it. Begging the question has nothing to do with the "solidity" of evidence provided; it's when you omit entirely the argument for a proposition, and yet ask the reader to take it as true. Also, you don't know what "presumption" means. If you think it's something you need or provide evidence for, then you don't know what the word means.

It doesn't matter if someone claims he has refuted me.

It does it he can link to or otherwise refer to the refutation and then subsequently to the part where you explicitly, gleefully said you were going to ignore it.

All that matters is the evidence and analysis he presents in rebuttal to my analysis, and our debate on the issue.

No, you may not demand that your critics respond only in the form of an affirmative counterclaim.

This is not complicated.

Apparently for you it is, since you want to disqualify all forms of analysis and refutation that don't conform to the few you seem to understand.

Then my arguments should be addressed, VERBATIM...

Irrelevant. You ignore uncomfortable rebuttals regardless of form.

This is a silly argument, Sandy. When do we discuss the assassination?

Pretty much when you stop ignoring people you can't refute, and when you stop whining so much in every post about how shabbily you think you're being treated.

I already did that. By far, the most consistent and accurate consilience, from the minds of the greatest skeptics has been that it's all about the evidence...

No. We've demonstrated that you don't have the faintest idea what any of your cited skeptics actually say. (I notice you dropped Sagan from your list.) Nor do you espouse in any way their principles or ideals.

As to consilience, I think we pretty amply demonstrated that you have no clue what it means, and that you have little if any interest in finding out. As to these "phantom" issues, it seems you can't decide from post to post whether they're unimportant, or irrelevant, or instead support your claim. Why would a reader not conclude that you're in over your head?

What astounds me is that 90% of my adversaries won't even discuss that evidence, and focus entirely on Robert Harris.

No. You're not even very skilled with your attempts to employ every pity-party ploy that there is. You're not as clever with that tactic as you think.

A classic example is their argument that I have no right to presume that there was a shot at 285.

No. That is not in the least an ad hominem argument. And yes, it is absolutely correct that you do not get to presume that the key premise in your theory just somehow magically happened.

Consider the quantity and quality of the evidence I have presented in support of that conclusion...

Do not be proud of your Gish gallop. You address little if anything people say in response. And as has been repeatedly asked and answered, the problem with your conclusions is that they are inferences that amount to nothing more than your say-so interpretation of the evidence to which you refer. You literally don't know the difference between interpretation and fact, and between inference and fact.

...in comparison with the evidence they have presented in support of the lone nut theory, which amounts to absolutely nothing?

Asked and answered. You have absolutely no correct understanding of "burden of proof," and you are already well familiar with the evidence against which you're arguing.

...one of theirs blurts out that it has been proven that Oswald acted alone.

No one is claiming "it has been proven" that Oswald acted alone. We are saying there is a body of well-known evidence pointing to Oswald as the assassin. You are telling us he wasn't the only assassin. Naturally we want you to point to the body of evidence that points to someone else as well. All you can manage is an indirect argument based on your pretense to understand someone else's work.
 
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Mrs. Connally and the other witnesses

This relatively brief presentation looks at the actions and statement of Mrs Connally and the other closest witnesses, in conjunction with their visible actions in the Zapruder film.

What makes these witnesses particularly valuable is that they do more than tell us what happened. They show us what happened. It is the combination of their actions and testimonies, which proves that there was a shot in the range of frame 285-288.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql6VqZDiC6s
 
I didn't.

Fair enough, but if someone were to knock on your door and tell you he believed there was a god, what would you do? Would you expect him to list the reasons why he believed there was a god? What what you do or say if he immediately demanded you prove his god didn't -- or even couldn't -- exist?

I have never based my argument for conspiracy on the absence of proof that Oswald acted alone.

Nonsense. It's the cornerstone of your approach, and a point you repeat in almost every post. Hardly a page or a day goes by when you are demanding that others provide evidence of the absence of other shooters, and insult them for not taking your bait to do so.

I only point that out in reply to those who assert that the LN theory has already been proven...

Which is none of us.

I think it's hilarious that the same approach you take to agnosticism and atheism is exactly the same approach I told you skeptics take with respect to the lone-gunman Oswald hypothesis. Exactly. And did you recognize the similarity? No, you called me a troll and announced you didn't have to pay any more attention to me.

It's pretty clear you're desperate to paint your critics as irrational and entrenched, no matter what they actually say.

...or to remind people that they need to be open minded.

You don't know what open-mindedness is. If we weren't open-minded, nobody would be discussing your claims at all. We have listened to you attempt to make your point, and we've given you meaningful feedback despite the flurry of insults and snide comments you hurl.

The question is whether you're open-minded enough to consider that your hypothesis may be wrong. When you happily announce how many people you're ignoring, that doesn't convince anyone your mind is open.
 
LOL. Which specific floor of the Dal-tex building did the shot(s) come from? Oops!

As I explain in my main presentation, I believe the early shots probably came from the third floor.

A professional criminal was there at the time, who had connections to David Ferrie and Carlos Marcello, and was at the Cabana hotel the night before, where Jack Ruby was.

In his HSCA testimony, he flatly lied about being in Dealey Plaza, claiming he was with his parole officer, Roger Carol during the assassination, but the parole office denied his alibi. It is interesting that Braden never made that claim in his affidavit in 1963. He couldn't do that because the Sheriff's deputies only had to pick up the phone to prove he lied. But by 1978, he probably figured that Carol wouldn't remember, forgetting that EVERYONE remembers what was going on then.

I do not know for certain of course, whether Braden actually fired shots or whether he was there as a lookout for whoever did. Also, if you look at the presentation, you will see that I demonstrate that the trajectory from the Daltex is much better than from the alleged sniper's nest.



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I didn't. That's why I fully agree with Dawkins that logically, we can only be agnostics. Also like Dawkins, I usually refer to myself as an atheist, speaking only for myself, because it overcomplicates things if I go around calling myself an agnostic, and I think 99.9999999999% is close enough:)
Good. You seem to understand how it works, that as an atheist or agnostic, you don't have the burden of proof to show that gods don't exist. The "burden of proof" lies with the person making the positive claim that gods do exist. The "null hypothesis" is that gods don't. Now extrapolate that to your positive claim that other shooter(s) besdes Oswald also were involved. The null hypothesis is that Oswald acted alone because that's what the overwhelming body of evidence shows. You now have the burden of proof to show, well, whatever it is you're claiming. There is no continuing burden of proof to show Oswald was the only shooter. That burden has been met. You may disagree, however you would be wrong.

I have never based my argument for conspiracy on the absence of proof that Oswald acted alone. I only point that out in reply to those who assert that the LN theory has already been proven, or to remind people that they need to be open minded.
No, not that it's been proven. That there is an overwhelming body of evidence for it such that that burden of proof has already been met. There isn't a continuing burden to prove that null hypothesis.

But why don't we stop talking about me, and start talking about the evidence? Do you REALLY find "Robert Harris" more interesting that greatest individual crime of the 20th century?
Well, frankly, no. I find you to be tedious and not at all interesting, since you asked. But my post which you were replying to wasn't about you, it was about understanding "burden of proof". You chose in your reply to make it about you. As I've said before, your worst enemy is "Robert Harris".
 
I do not know for certain of course, whether Braden actually fired shots or whether he was there as a lookout for whoever did.

Actually, you don't seem to have evidence he participated in any activity there, illegal or otherwise, that fits your hypothesis. He is simply a person with a ready-made criminal history (i.e., people more apt to believe in accusations against him) for whom you've invented a role in your fantasy.

Also, if you look at the presentation, you will see that I demonstrate that the trajectory from the Daltex is much better than from the alleged sniper's nest.

And your prior training, expertise, and experience in forensic ballistics is ... ? You got the physics wrong on your last answer and conspicuously avoided discussing a correction. What can you do to assure us you are competent to perform this kind of analysis?

As usual, just a lot of innuendo and home-grown hobby-science.
 
As I explain in my main presentation, I believe the early shots probably came from the third floor.
And yet, as you also say out of the other side of your mouth:

I do not know for certain of course, whether Braden actually fired shots or whether he was there as a lookout for whoever did.
But your original whine was that there seemed to be a rule around here that we weren't allowed to be specific about anything.

Did shots specifically come from the 3rd floor of the Dal-Tex building or not? Did Braden fire the shots or not? Be specific or be hypocritical, which is it?
 
Good. You seem to understand how it works, that as an atheist or agnostic, you don't have the burden of proof to show that gods don't exist. The "burden of proof" lies with the person making the positive claim that gods do exist.

The burden of proof lies with whoever asserts. If I claim with certainty that there are no deities than I bear the burden of proving my assertion.

The "null hypothesis" is that gods don't.

Of course. But the claim that Oswald acted alone, is hardly in the same category as belief in the supernatural:-)

Now extrapolate that to your positive claim that other shooter(s) besdes Oswald also were involved.

Why would I do that? I base my arguments entirely on verifiable, objective evidence.

The null hypothesis is that Oswald acted alone because that's what the overwhelming body of evidence shows.

Well then, why don't you tell me about this "overwhelming body of evidence"?

Please be very specific.

The floor is yours,
 
The burden of proof lies with whoever asserts. If I claim with certainty that there are no deities than I bear the burden of proving my assertion.

"Claim with certainty" is a rail split. When you first arrived, you solicited expressions of people's beliefs regarding Kennedy's killer. You then tried to spin them all as claims-with-certainty that would require proof, when they were only merely the requested statement of belief.

If you are asked what you believe about a god, and you say you don't believe in any, how would you respond if someone demanded you provide specific proof for that belief?

Of course. But the claim that Oswald acted alone, is hardly in the same category as belief in the supernatural:-)

Irrelevant to the concept of the null hypothesis and the burden of proof. You're trying to sneak issues of a priori credibility into the debate to muddy up the relatively straightforward issues of testability.

Why would I do that? I base my arguments entirely on verifiable, objective evidence.

No. When others try to verify your evidence, you immediately shun them. When they point out that your inferences are purely subjective, you dance around the issue and demand they pay attention to other parts of your argument instead.
 
The burden of proof lies with whoever asserts. If I claim with certainty that there are no deities than I bear the burden of proving my assertion.
So far, so good.

Of course. But the claim that Oswald acted alone, is hardly in the same category as belief in the supernatural:-)
You'll have to take that up with the Warren Commission. Here, you're seemingly making a claim of... something. You have the burden of proof.

Why would I do that? I base my arguments entirely on verifiable, objective evidence.
Except you aren't. You're inferring your own interpretation and calling your inferences objective evdence. It is the same as if someone sees a tree growing and says that that is evidence of the gods they believe in. Would the existence of a tree be verifiable, objective evidence of gods to you?

Well then, why don't you tell me about this "overwhelming body of evidence"?

Please be very specific.

The floor is yours,
No, the floor is yours. Unless the entire conversation about burden of proof is beyond your capabilities to understand, you should now see why you have it.

What is your complete and coherent alternative hypothesis for who killed JFK? Be sure to name specific names and other particulars and then you may show how each piece of evidence dovetails with it.
 

Well of course. Turn to John McAdams if you seek objective information:)

McAdams argument is that Milteer got some of the details wrong. Obviously, because he didn't know all the details. For example he thought the hit would take place on 11/18, the day in which Kennedy arrived in Tampa.

But he probably got that one right. Look at this article,

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/11/23/Tampabay/New_book_tells_of_JFK.shtml

Notice this part:

" More interesting for local readers, the book also claims that Trafficante was behind an attempt to kill Kennedy during his visit to Tampa on Nov. 18, 1963.

Trafficante allegedly called off the attack after an informant alerted law enforcement a few days before the visit, according to the book."


Isn't that an amazing coincidence?!?

Milteer had obviously been told about an assassination attempt on the 18th and sure enough, there was an assassination attempt planned for the 18th.

The article continues, "Of course, Trafficante would have also known that there was still one more chance to kill JFK, in Marcello's territory of Dallas,"

It is clear that Milteer had foreknowledge of the assassination, and that organized crime was behind the assassination.
 
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Well of course. Turn to John McAdams if you seek objective information:)

Ad hominem.

McAdams argument is that Milteer got some of the details wrong. Obviously, because he didn't know all the details.

Not a convincing explanation. There's a qualitative difference between not knowing a detail and pretending to know a detail but getting it wrong. A trustworthy witness, in the former case, would answer "I don't know." An untrustworthy witness would give a wrong answer, whether intentionally or otherwise. The argument that misreported details makes the witness noncredible is more convincing than the argument that a witness reported details he knew he didn't know, and is still somehow credible.
 
Except you aren't. You're inferring your own interpretation and calling your inferences objective evdence. It is the same as if someone sees a tree growing and says that that is evidence of the gods they believe in. Would the existence of a tree be verifiable, objective evidence of gods to you?

Or perhaps more on the nose, The proposition, "Looking at the Zapruder film, it's obvious these people in the limo were reacting to a gunshot," is exactly equivalent, logically speaking, to "Looking at a sunset, it's obvious there's a god."
 
So far, so good.


You'll have to take that up with the Warren Commission.

Why? The Warren Commission never said that Oswald acted alone. They only said they did not see evidence of conspiracy. If you had actually read the report, you would have known that.

And since almost all their evidence came from the FBI, whose policy was that "the public must be convinced.." that Oswald acted alone, the apparent absence of conspiracy evidence doesn't mean anything.

Here, you're seemingly making a claim of... something. You have the burden of proof.

No sir. He who asserts bears the burden of proving his assertion. You said,

"The null hypothesis is that Oswald acted alone because that's what the overwhelming body of evidence shows."

Now prove it or admit that you were flatly wrong.
 
Or perhaps more on the nose, The proposition, "Looking at the Zapruder film, it's obvious these people in the limo were reacting to a gunshot," is exactly equivalent, logically speaking, to "Looking at a sunset, it's obvious there's a god."

Yes, even better.

Robert, is a sunset objective, verifiable evidence of god(s)? We can all go outside and see it for ourselves. You can't get much more objective or verifiable than that. Great scientists have written that sunsets exist. They've even been able to measure the surface temperature of the sun.

Or is it just a person't interpretation that a sunset is evidence of their gods?
 
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Why? The Warren Commission never said that Oswald acted alone. They only said they did not see evidence of conspiracy. If you had actually read the report, you would have known that.
I don't recall saying that the Warren Commission did anything other than that. If you had actually read my post and the WCR yourself, you would have known that.

And since almost all their evidence came from the FBI, whose policy was that "the public must be convinced.." that Oswald acted alone, the apparent absence of conspiracy evidence doesn't mean anything.
If you have compelling evidence of other shooters, you should present it. You do, after all, have the burden of proof.

No sir. He who asserts bears the burden of proving his assertion. You said,

"The null hypothesis is that Oswald acted alone because that's what the overwhelming body of evidence shows."

Now prove it or admit that you were flatly wrong.
Asked and answered, numerous times. I admit that you are flatly wrong and still have the burden of proof.

What is your complete and coherent alternative hypothesis for who killed JFK? Note that you've been asked this numerous times also, and still refuse to answer.
 
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And yet, as you also say out of the other side of your mouth:


But your original whine was that there seemed to be a rule around here that we weren't allowed to be specific about anything.

Did shots specifically come from the 3rd floor of the Dal-Tex building or not? Did Braden fire the shots or not? Be specific or be hypocritical, which is it?

I prefer to be honest.

When I do not know something with absolute certainty, I admit it, unlike some of my adversaries.

How could I possibly know whether Braden was alone, behind that window or was with one or more other assassins??

I can't believe you are actually attacking me for being truthful.

Would it make you happier if I lied?
 
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