Split Thread Michael Brown and Katrina

[sunmaster14]

While I hesitate to climb into the vitriol, and I have no love for Mike Brown, I think he's getting a bad rap and there has been only scattered mention of the most culpable person at the federal level.

That being said, I'll start with something pulled from the testimony of COL (Ret) Jeff Smith, Deputy Director Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness - where he asked "what is the metric for success?", largely justifying the response at the state level and its performance. A lot of hay is being made about the Hurricane Pam exercise in the summer of 2004, one year prior. In that exercise, 60,000 deaths were predicted. In Louisiana, the final tally was short of 1,600 (at the time of Jeff Smith's testimony in December 2005 it was 1,100). That means actual deaths were less than 3% of predicted. If those numbers mean that someone criminally failed, then what does success look like? Those deaths may be a tragedy, but they are a fraction of 1% of the total affected Louisiana population, and even a small fraction (2%) of the non-evacuees in New Orleans. What's the metric for success?

Next, you may want to dig into the data on the deaths - I would suggest starting with "Hurricane Katrina Deaths, 2005"http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/assets/docs/katrina/deceasedreports/KatrinaDeaths_082008.pdf . The study does not have complete data on deaths or date of death, but of the cases where they had dates of death, 81% died on the day of landfall. (650 as a number) 95% of the deaths were from Orleans, St. Bernard, or Jefferson Parish, with the majority from Orleans Parish. The parishes that did not have mandatory evacuations (or late mandatory evacuations) were Orleans and Jefferson, and St. Bernards was where St Rita's home was. A majority of the deaths were older - and some speculation is that older residents may have weathered Hurricane Betsy and tried to do the same thing. A plurality of deaths were due to drowning - the result of the levees being breached. Long and short of it, with a majority of deaths being the day of the hurricane and drowning, I fail to see how Bush or Mike Brown could have done much of anything to prevent any of those deaths. The finding of "Failure of Initiative" was that Blanco and Nagin had 56 hours of notice of the severity of Katrina, yet waited until 19 hours prior to order a mandatory evacuation. I'm not scapegoating because I'm not looking for one; mandatory evacuations are a tough call and tough to enforce. But if you are looking for someone to blame for the relatively small number of deaths compared with the predictions of the Hurricane Pam exercise, you will find more immediate culpability for the day of landfall and drowning deaths at the local level rather than the federal.

Regarding the hospitals, Memorial Hospital and Tenet Healthcare settled a lawsuit in 2011 and Pendleton Memorial Methodist Hospital settled a lawsuit in 2010 (I'm sure there were other lawsuits, but these were two of the larger ones) concerning the hospital's culpability in the deaths of their patients. The state, local, or federal government were not parties in these suits, and the plaintiffs for the families of the dead fought to exclude any evidence or defense involving them, arguing it was irrelevant to the duty a hospital has to its patients.

So who would I consider most culpable at the federal level? Chertoff. I would recommend reading COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony - he highlights a lot of the problems FEMA had being rolled under DHS, something ironically that Mike Brown correctly identified as interfering with FEMA's ability to prepare. This is a big topic, so I would recommend reading the full chapter on FEMA Preparedness in "A Failure of Initiative". It's easy to blame Brown, but he fought against the removing of responsibilities and weakening of FEMA under DHS (and made some prophetic statements). Anyways, Chertoff:
- did not stand up the IIMG (Interagency Incident Management Group) prior to landfall
- did not activate the CIA (Catastrophic Incident Annex) to the NRP (National Response Plan) (in COL Smith's opinion the single biggest failure)
- appointed Mike Brown as the PFO (Primary Federal Official) who was not PFO-trained or on the approved PFO roster and then made him operational (he described Brown as his "battlefield commander")
- did not understand the distinction between PFO and FCO and tried to dual hat PFO as FCO leading to the resignation of very respected FCO Bill Carwile.

Very good points. Perhaps when RF comes back from his well-deserved vacation, he can address some of them substantively. Pffft. What am I saying?

(All that being said, I would be hard pressed to ascribe deaths or a majority blame for Katrina to Chertoff - just that in sunmaster's blame progression, I would put Chertoff ahead of Bush and Brown.)

Agreed. One might even blame the whole bipartisan idea of creating the DHS in the first place.

 

[carlitos]

While I hesitate to climb into the vitriol, and I have no love for Mike Brown, I think he's getting a bad rap and there has been only scattered mention of the most culpable person at the federal level.

That being said, I'll start with something pulled from the testimony of COL (Ret) Jeff Smith, Deputy Director Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness - where he asked "what is the metric for success?", largely justifying the response at the state level and its performance. A lot of hay is being made about the Hurricane Pam exercise in the summer of 2004, one year prior. In that exercise, 60,000 deaths were predicted. In Louisiana, the final tally was short of 1,600 (at the time of Jeff Smith's testimony in December 2005 it was 1,100). That means actual deaths were less than 3% of predicted. If those numbers mean that someone criminally failed, then what does success look like? Those deaths may be a tragedy, but they are a fraction of 1% of the total affected Louisiana population, and even a small fraction (2%) of the non-evacuees in New Orleans. What's the metric for success?

Next, you may want to dig into the data on the deaths - I would suggest starting with "Hurricane Katrina Deaths, 2005"http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/assets/docs/katrina/deceasedreports/KatrinaDeaths_082008.pdf . The study does not have complete data on deaths or date of death, but of the cases where they had dates of death, 81% died on the day of landfall. (650 as a number) 95% of the deaths were from Orleans, St. Bernard, or Jefferson Parish, with the majority from Orleans Parish. The parishes that did not have mandatory evacuations (or late mandatory evacuations) were Orleans and Jefferson, and St. Bernards was where St Rita's home was. A majority of the deaths were older - and some speculation is that older residents may have weathered Hurricane Betsy and tried to do the same thing. A plurality of deaths were due to drowning - the result of the levees being breached. Long and short of it, with a majority of deaths being the day of the hurricane and drowning, I fail to see how Bush or Mike Brown could have done much of anything to prevent any of those deaths. The finding of "Failure of Initiative" was that Blanco and Nagin had 56 hours of notice of the severity of Katrina, yet waited until 19 hours prior to order a mandatory evacuation. I'm not scapegoating because I'm not looking for one; mandatory evacuations are a tough call and tough to enforce. But if you are looking for someone to blame for the relatively small number of deaths compared with the predictions of the Hurricane Pam exercise, you will find more immediate culpability for the day of landfall and drowning deaths at the local level rather than the federal.

Regarding the hospitals, Memorial Hospital and Tenet Healthcare settled a lawsuit in 2011 and Pendleton Memorial Methodist Hospital settled a lawsuit in 2010 (I'm sure there were other lawsuits, but these were two of the larger ones) concerning the hospital's culpability in the deaths of their patients. The state, local, or federal government were not parties in these suits, and the plaintiffs for the families of the dead fought to exclude any evidence or defense involving them, arguing it was irrelevant to the duty a hospital has to its patients.

So who would I consider most culpable at the federal level? Chertoff. I would recommend reading COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony - he highlights a lot of the problems FEMA had being rolled under DHS, something ironically that Mike Brown correctly identified as interfering with FEMA's ability to prepare. This is a big topic, so I would recommend reading the full chapter on FEMA Preparedness in "A Failure of Initiative". It's easy to blame Brown, but he fought against the removing of responsibilities and weakening of FEMA under DHS (and made some prophetic statements). Anyways, Chertoff:
- did not stand up the IIMG (Interagency Incident Management Group) prior to landfall
- did not activate the CIA (Catastrophic Incident Annex) to the NRP (National Response Plan) (in COL Smith's opinion the single biggest failure)
- appointed Mike Brown as the PFO (Primary Federal Official) who was not PFO-trained or on the approved PFO roster and then made him operational (he described Brown as his "battlefield commander")
- did not understand the distinction between PFO and FCO and tried to dual hat PFO as FCO leading to the resignation of very respected FCO Bill Carwile.

(All that being said, I would be hard pressed to ascribe deaths or a majority blame for Katrina to Chertoff - just that in sunmaster's blame progression, I would put Chertoff ahead of Bush and Brown.)

 

[RandFan]

You tell me.

Nothing. They did nothing. A risk was identified and they ignored it. That isn't in any way controversial.

 

[RandFan]

So who would I consider most culpable at the federal level? Chertoff. I would recommend reading COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony - he highlights a lot of the problems FEMA had being rolled under DHS, something ironically that Mike Brown correctly identified as interfering with FEMA's ability to prepare. This is a big topic, so I would recommend reading the full chapter on FEMA Preparedness in "A Failure of Initiative". It's easy to blame Brown, but he fought against the removing of responsibilities and weakening of FEMA under DHS (and made some prophetic statements). Anyways, Chertoff:
- did not stand up the IIMG (Interagency Incident Management Group) prior to landfall
- did not activate the CIA (Catastrophic Incident Annex) to the NRP (National Response Plan) (in COL Smith's opinion the single biggest failure)
- appointed Mike Brown as the PFO (Primary Federal Official) who was not PFO-trained or on the approved PFO roster and then made him operational (he described Brown as his "battlefield commander")
- did not understand the distinction between PFO and FCO and tried to dual hat PFO as FCO leading to the resignation of very respected FCO Bill Carwile.

(All that being said, I would be hard pressed to ascribe deaths or a majority blame for Katrina to Chertoff - just that in sunmaster's blame progression, I would put Chertoff ahead of Bush and Brown.)

Several dire warnings. Ultimately nothing was done and people died. Those who should have acted? They shrug their shoulders and their defenders pat them on the back.

• Is Bush entirely at fault? No. Did he fail? Yes.
• Is Brown entirely at fault? No. Did he fail? Yes.
• There was a warning.
• It was ignored.
• Katrina WAS a cat 5 storm.
• Cat 5 was a a huge red flag.
• Nothing was done.

 

[carlitos]

Clearly something was done, as the fatality rates for the storm vastly outperformed estimates for such a catastrophe. Clearly something was done as many people were evacuated and saved, even after the storm hit despite their inability or refusal to evacuate.

What percent of culpability do mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco have in your scenario?

 

[RandFan]

Clearly something was done, as the fatality rates for the storm vastly outperformed estimates for such a catastrophe. Clearly something was done as many people were evacuated and saved, even after the storm hit.

You seem to be reinventing history here.

Of course "something" was done. Tell me more about what George Bush did. Or Brown for that matter. 1,800 people died. Many suffered horribly. How long before FEMA was able to respond substantively to the disaster?

Keep in mind, katrina WAS a Cat 5 storm and a Cat 5 storm was considered one of FEMA's highest priorities.

So what exactly did all of that computer forecasting and weather modeling do for the 1,800 who died?

 

[Augustine]

I would suggest you read the testimony of Bill Carwile, FCO for Mississippi, Bill Lokey, FCO for Louisiana, Scott Wells, Deputy FCO for Louisiana, Phil Parr, Emergency Response Advance Team, to see what was being done. Also still suggest you read COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony for timeline, the progress, and his observations of the federal response.

These are all emergency management professionals. What is your criticism of their comments and observations?

 

[RandFan]

I would suggest you read the testimony of Bill Carwile, FCO for Mississippi, Bill Lokey, FCO for Louisiana, Scott Wells, Deputy FCO for Louisiana, Phil Parr, Emergency Response Advance Team, to see what was being done. Also still suggest you read COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony for timeline, the progress, and his observations of the federal response.

These are all emergency management professionals. What is your criticism of their comments and observations?

Facts:

• It was predicted that a direct hit of a CAT 5 hurricane on NO would devastate LA.
• Katrina was a CAT 5.
• Katrina had a high likelihood of directly striking NO.
• In spite of knowing all that they did, in spite of knowing that evacuation would be problematic the feds did not have an alternate plan.
• The feds prepositioned an absurd amount of food and resources given the multiple warning of "mortal danger".

Doing things is NOT success. Even liberals know that doing things, filing out paper work, monitoring situations, calling people, directing traffic, helping motorists, etc., etc., etc., is meaningless is if you cannot do what it was you were put in place to do.

BE PREPARED!

Tell me how FEMA was prepared for this foreseeable emergency (damn straight it was foreseeable). Tell me how long it took for FEMA to do much of anything? We had reporters in the field monitoring the situation for days. How long did it take?

Please don't say "it takes time to prepare". Please. The reason they spent so much money to model all of the various scenarios was to figure out what they should be prepared for. They had plenty of time from the previous year when the article was written to come up with a plan.

The plan?

The FEMA plan. The one that addressed the disaster they had identified would likely happen? What was it?

 

[Augustine]

You are not taking the time to read anything. You don't understand FEMA's mission - read, I think it was Phil Parr's testimony, who had some 20 or 30 years as a NY Fire Chief before working for FEMA at the federal level - he addresses the local response versus the federal response. FEMA was never intended to develop the Hurricane Response Plan for Lousisiana or any state. That's not FEMA's role.

Read Jeff Smith's testimony to get the timeline

Let’s look at the weather reports---a week before Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana, it does not even exist. The first weather advisory for Tropical Depression 12 is issued on August 23, 2005 at 4 p.m. –this is 6 days before landfall.

Four days before landfall, on Thursday, August 25, 2005 at 1:00 p.m Eastern Daylight Time the National Weather Service reports: Reconnaissance aircraft indicate the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near a latitude 26.2 North longitude 79.5 West or about 40 miles east, northeast of Fort Lauderdale, Florida or about 40 miles east, southeast of Boca Raton, Florida. This storm is not even in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon, it is still in the Atlantic.

Katrina enters the Gulf sometime Friday morning with projections indicating that it will most likely make landfall in the mid- panhandle of Florida.

Friday morning the 10:00 am National Weather Service advisory still projects a Florida Panhandle landfall. Remember, this is less than three (3) days prior to actual Louisiana landfall.

In the early afternoon of Friday, August 26, the hurri-vac models reflects one of the most dramatic shifts in weather history. The projected path of Katrina moves approximately 150 miles west in a matter of hours.

For the first time, Louisiana is in the predicted path of Katrina.

Rather than respond to me in five ten minutes with the same misconceptions, why not take some time to read the testimony of the FEMA FCOs and the Louisiana Deputy Director for Emergency Preparedness and respond tomorrow or this weekend? Right now your facts are completely wrong.

 

[RandFan]

Right now your facts are completely wrong.

Right now you are simply gainsaying. Give a beuracrat a chance to explain why he couldn't do his job and he or she will come up with very elaborate reasons for failure.

 

[RandFan]

Facts:

• It was predicted that a direct hit of a CAT 5 hurricane on NO would devastate LA.
• Katrina was a CAT 5.
• Katrina had a high likelihood of directly striking NO.
• In spite of knowing all that they did, in spite of knowing that evacuation would be problematic the feds did not have an alternate plan.
• The feds prepositioned an absurd amount of food and resources given the multiple warning of "mortal danger".

FTR: As hard as you try to white wash it, this will not go away. We knew and fumbled.

 

[Augustine]

I would suggest you read Carwile's and Parr's biographies before you start accusing them of being bureaucrats.

You are horribly wrong if you are under the impression that FEMA prepares hurricane response plans for states, or even dictates to the states what to do. This is the second time I will direct you to Phil Parr's testimony.

 

[RandFan]

MORNING — MAYFIELD WARNS BUSH ABOUT THE TOPPING OF THE LEVEES: In the same briefing, Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center Director, warns, “This is a category 5 hurricane, very similar to Hurricane Andrew in the maximum intensity, but there’s a big big difference. This hurricane is much larger than Andrew ever was. I also want to make absolutely clear to everyone that the greatest potential for large loss of lives is still in the coastal areas from the storm surge. … I don’t think anyone can tell you with any confidence right now whether the levees will be topped or not, but there’s obviously a very very grave concern.” [AP]

What was the point of giving Bush a waring if Bush was going to do nothing?

 

[Augustine]

When did Katrina have a high likelihood of striking New Orleans exactly? What day, how many hours out? (Hint: it's in COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony.)

 

[Augustine]

The warning you cite came nineteen hours out and was the one that spurred Nagin to issue the mandatory evacuation order.

Also, Max Mayfield was a meteorologist. While he could predict topping, he could not predict breaching. If you read COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony you will learn that the flooding was the real problem. Only 30% of New Orleans would have flooded if the levees had held. As it was, 80% flooded. As mentioned in the reports on Katrina deaths, which you may or may not have read, the majority of deaths were day of landfall and a plurality by drowning.

 

[RandFan]

I would suggest you read Carwile's and Parr's biographies before you start accusing them of being bureaucrats.

You are horribly wrong if you are under the impression that ¹ FEMA prepares hurricane response plans for states, or even dictates to the states what to do. ³This is the second time I will direct you to Phil Parr's testimony.

Ausustine, prior to Katrina making landfall, FEMA prepositioned food and resources.

• We know that FEMA had the ability to prepare to provide fresh water and food prior to a disaster.
• FEMA could have prepositioned transportation. Nothing prevented them from doing this.

What was the point of assessing the risk and then failing to adequately prepare for the risk?

 

[RandFan]

The warning you cite came nineteen hours out and was the one that spurred Nagin to issue the mandatory evacuation order.

Also, Max Mayfield was a meteorologist. While he could predict topping, he could not predict breaching. If you read COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony you will learn that the flooding was the real problem. Only 30% of New Orleans would have flooded if the levees had held. As it was, 80% flooded. As mentioned in the reports on Katrina deaths, which you may or may not have read, the majority of deaths were day of landfall and a plurality by drowning.

All irrelevant.

FEMA had made the warning clear. NOA and NWS had made the warning clear. To sit here and tell us no one could have know, FEMA predicted it.

You are playing a game of.... well, it didn't happen exactly like we thought it would therefore... no prediction.

 

[RandFan]

When did Katrina have a high likelihood of striking New Orleans exactly? What day, how many hours out? (Hint: it's in COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony.)

• Katrina always had a high likelihood of striking land.
• FEMA's responsibility was for more than NO.

It boggles my mind that we have a clear prediction made by a scientific community and here we are not certain if we should have ignored the warning.

You get that is the jist of your post right?

 

[sunmaster14]

MORNING — MAYFIELD WARNS BUSH ABOUT THE TOPPING OF THE LEVEES: In the same briefing, Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center Director, warns, “This is a category 5 hurricane, very similar to Hurricane Andrew in the maximum intensity, but there’s a big big difference. This hurricane is much larger than Andrew ever was. I also want to make absolutely clear to everyone that the greatest potential for large loss of lives is still in the coastal areas from the storm surge. … I don’t think anyone can tell you with any confidence right now whether the levees will be topped or not, but there’s obviously a very very grave concern.” [AP]

You keep spamming the thread with the same old baseless, indeed refuted, assertions. That video of the briefing actually exonerates Bush and Brown. They clearly took the storm very seriously, and it's clear that the plan was to move in resources after the storm hit. This is the right decision for two reasons: (1) you don't know beforehand where and how the storm will hit, so you don't know where its best to send resources until afterwards; and (2) you don't want your resources destroyed in the hurricane itself, nor do you want to put your emergency workers in harm's way.

Of course, the problem they ran into was that the breach of the levee system in New Orleans flooded the whole place and made the rescue and recovery effort exponentially more difficult. And as Bush said (accurately and truthfully), nobody anticipated breaching of the levee system. Overtopping of the levees is not the same as breaching. Overtopping simply means that water gets into the "basin" that is New Orleans, but it can then be pumped out. Breaching means that you have to repair the breaches before you can even think about pumping the water out (and by then the pumps probably don't even work also).

What was the point of giving Bush a waring if Bush was going to do nothing?

He didn't do nothing. You keep saying this as if nobody in the thread will call it out as the despicable slander that it is. The US Coast Guard itself saved 33,545 lives, and the Coast Guard counts it as the greatest rescue effort in its history.

 

[Augustine]

Until Friday afternoon, Katrina was projected to hit Florida mid-panhandle. Florida, along with Alabama, and Mississippi, and Georgia, South and North Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee, is in FEMA Region IV. Louisiana, along with Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, is in FEMA Region VI. So the change in path as noted by COL (Ret) Jeff Smith from Louisiana's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness did change things 56 hours out. Also, prepositioning is commodities, not contractors. Prepositioning was also limited by the Stafford Act; the prepositioning for Sandy was made possible by the Post-Katrina Reform Act (see Emergency Management magazine, Mar 12, 2013).
Finally, can you point me to where in COL (Ret) Jeff Smith's testimony he says that lack of FEMA transportation assets cost lives? You know, he was the Deputy Director For Emergency Preparedness with the Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness during Katrina, and testified and all. Surely if lives were lost because FEMA did not provide transportation he would have said something, or it would have been somewhere in his criticism?

Also, I have not seen a single piece of evidence from you that ANYONE "ignored the warning".