Spindrift
Time Person of the Year, 2006
I recognize the words but I have no idea what this means.
Technical analysis
- Thread starter Samson
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I recognize the words but I have no idea what this means.
No, what I suggested is not what you have been doing here: you are claiming (with no evidence) of making a large profit on theoretical trades in the past. I even acknowledged that it might have happened, but even if true I am one of the posters who agree with your quote: past performance does not predict future success.
What I did suggest is that you predict IN ADVANCE each trade in a time dated post, and then show over time that you would have made a much better than market average profit.
Did I miss the part where you did/are doing this or that you have begun to do this?
Edited: Okay, found it, I think. Can I assume that your first proposed trade is to suggest buying an Emini contract? Great! Exactly for how much total, and don't forget to tell us when you hypothetically sell it. But of course if we wait until it reaches a certain higher price, then clearly we are waiting for you to make a profit. So we will need to see in the long term how it all works out after many trades.
How long do you propose the test period should be- 6 months? And how much better than the market average do you believe you will achieve?
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The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
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- Dec 17, 2001
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You should go all in when this happens. I suspect you'll report a huge profit when it does!
The volume varied from 2 lots to 10. If each trade was one lot it would have shown 200% profit on initial margin.
Okay- this is beyond my understanding. Do you buy these contracts for a fixed amount of money, and the number of lots can differ per buy in? Why would the percent profit differ depending on how many lots are purchased? How could there be a 200% profit if the pice hasn't changed from the entry point you quoted?
But, aside from my own education, just express it in how much money you would pay when you decide to buy, how much money you would have received when you decided to sell, and the profit or loss as a result (all in theory, of course, and all intended sells and buys should be told to us in advance rather than in retrospect).
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The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2001
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It's called "obfuscation".
Great! But to simplify it, just post the intended trades here in advance. If you also wish to post time-dated documentation afterward, that would also be great. But it would probably be harder to confirm this retrospective documentation (given the limitations of the Internet) compared to simple, advance notice (even a little bit) of the identity, amount, and time of your intended trades in a post to this forum. The profit margins you describe would appear to not depend too much on the exact millisecond that your proposed trade actually goes through.
Can you also clarify the apparent difference between your total profit calculated from the average profit per trade that you just posted, versus your total profit as claimed in your OP?
As a general response, here is the first few trades from the trial, where the format and real time log is clear.
29-Aug-2014 12:25:36 AM
6394796 Position 141049433: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 4 ESU4 @ 1992 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 28-Aug-2014 by System User System User
28-Aug-2014 5:43:06 PM
6394796 Position 141032067: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 4 ESU4 @ 1994.5 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 28-Aug-2014 by System User System User
27-Aug-2014 2:32:48 AM
6394796 Position 140986477: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 4 ESU4 @ 1999.75 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 26-Aug-2014 by System User System User
26-Aug-2014 8:36:19 PM
6394796 Position 140970559: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 4 ESU4 @ 1997.5 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 26-Aug-2014 by System User System User
26-Aug-2014 2:48:21 AM
6394796 Position 140953431: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1994.5 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 25-Aug-2014 by System User System User
25-Aug-2014 7:38:37 PM
6394796 Position 140939121: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1994.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 25-Aug-2014 by System User System User
23-Aug-2014 6:01:12 AM
6394796 Position 140926096: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1986.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 22-Aug-2014 by System User System User
22-Aug-2014 4:55:05 PM
6394796 Position 140898222: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1991.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 22-Aug-2014 by System User System User
19-Aug-2014 6:14:31 AM
6394796 Position 140799894: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 3 ESU4 @ 1967 cost 75, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 18-Aug-2014 by System User System User
14-Aug-2014 7:05:28 AM
6394796 Position 140716718: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 3 ESU4 @ 1946 cost 75, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 13-Aug-2014 by System User System User
06-Aug-2014 4:08:46 AM
6394796 Position 140523068: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1910 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Aug-2014 by System User System User
05-Aug-2014 9:32:22 PM
6394796 Position 140505604: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1927 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Aug-2014 by System User System User
Activity Log
Date User ID Account Activity
...............................................
And here are the last few before the simulator was turned off.
Date User ID Account Activity
07-Feb-2015 7:03:14 AM
6394796 Position 150885487: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 10 ESH5 @ 2048.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 06-Feb-2015 by System User System User
07-Feb-2015 5:23:05 AM
6394796 Position 150883359: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2056.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 06-Feb-2015 by System User System User
06-Feb-2015 5:56:40 AM
6394796 Position 150852200: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2054.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 2:50:54 PM
6394796 Position 150822260: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 10 ESH5 @ 2026.75 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 7:44:42 AM
6394796 Position 150817828: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2037.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 7:25:55 AM
6394796 Position 150817024: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 20 ESH5 @ 2045 cost 500, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
04-Feb-2015 9:11:58 PM
6394796 Position 150794542: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2035.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
04-Feb-2015 1:32:04 AM
6394796 Position 150764877: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2028.75 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 03-Feb-2015 by System User System User
03-Feb-2015 7:32:12 AM
6394796 Position 150736744: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 20 ESH5 @ 2001 cost 500, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 02-Feb-2015 by System User System User
02-Feb-2015 8:52:00 PM
6394796 Position 150711082: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 1990.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 02-Feb-
29-Aug-2014 12:25:36 AM
6394796 Position 141049433: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 4 ESU4 @ 1992 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 28-Aug-2014 by System User System User
28-Aug-2014 5:43:06 PM
6394796 Position 141032067: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 4 ESU4 @ 1994.5 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 28-Aug-2014 by System User System User
27-Aug-2014 2:32:48 AM
6394796 Position 140986477: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 4 ESU4 @ 1999.75 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 26-Aug-2014 by System User System User
26-Aug-2014 8:36:19 PM
6394796 Position 140970559: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 4 ESU4 @ 1997.5 cost 100, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 26-Aug-2014 by System User System User
26-Aug-2014 2:48:21 AM
6394796 Position 140953431: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1994.5 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 25-Aug-2014 by System User System User
25-Aug-2014 7:38:37 PM
6394796 Position 140939121: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1994.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 25-Aug-2014 by System User System User
23-Aug-2014 6:01:12 AM
6394796 Position 140926096: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1986.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 22-Aug-2014 by System User System User
22-Aug-2014 4:55:05 PM
6394796 Position 140898222: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1991.25 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 22-Aug-2014 by System User System User
19-Aug-2014 6:14:31 AM
6394796 Position 140799894: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 3 ESU4 @ 1967 cost 75, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 18-Aug-2014 by System User System User
14-Aug-2014 7:05:28 AM
6394796 Position 140716718: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 3 ESU4 @ 1946 cost 75, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 13-Aug-2014 by System User System User
06-Aug-2014 4:08:46 AM
6394796 Position 140523068: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1910 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Aug-2014 by System User System User
05-Aug-2014 9:32:22 PM
6394796 Position 140505604: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1927 cost 50, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Aug-2014 by System User System User
Activity Log
Date User ID Account Activity
...............................................
And here are the last few before the simulator was turned off.
Date User ID Account Activity
07-Feb-2015 7:03:14 AM
6394796 Position 150885487: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 10 ESH5 @ 2048.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 06-Feb-2015 by System User System User
07-Feb-2015 5:23:05 AM
6394796 Position 150883359: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2056.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 06-Feb-2015 by System User System User
06-Feb-2015 5:56:40 AM
6394796 Position 150852200: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2054.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 2:50:54 PM
6394796 Position 150822260: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 10 ESH5 @ 2026.75 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 05-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 7:44:42 AM
6394796 Position 150817828: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2037.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
05-Feb-2015 7:25:55 AM
6394796 Position 150817024: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 20 ESH5 @ 2045 cost 500, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
04-Feb-2015 9:11:58 PM
6394796 Position 150794542: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2035.25 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 04-Feb-2015 by System User System User
04-Feb-2015 1:32:04 AM
6394796 Position 150764877: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2028.75 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 03-Feb-2015 by System User System User
03-Feb-2015 7:32:12 AM
6394796 Position 150736744: Futures Contracts trade executed: Buy 20 ESH5 @ 2001 cost 500, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 02-Feb-2015 by System User System User
02-Feb-2015 8:52:00 PM
6394796 Position 150711082: Futures Contracts trade executed: Sell 10 ESH5 @ 1990.5 cost 250, 0, 0 USD, , Value date 02-Feb-
Sorry but I can't figure out the data you supplied: from looking at it, your lists start with a sale, then terminate with a buy, which seems like an odd way of presenting this information. I also can't easily find or calculate (without using a lot of my own time) the critical information: how much money did you pay overall for each buy, and how much money overall did you receive for each sell. Not to mention what happened in between.
But that is all academic, because the question is not can you post a table that shows trades that would have resulted in a net profit in the past. Again, the critical test of your OP is can you now predict future trades that will result in similar profits over a similar amount of tmime? This forum is a great place to do so. Post the information here (price you intend to pay or be paid per lot, number of lots, and time) just before each buy and sell, so we can keep track of your predictions, and then determine the profit and loss that would have resulted from these trades. Your frequently of trades doesn't suggest that the actual price of these lots would dramatically change between your post and the "actual" time of the simulated transaction.
We all agree that selected stock trades in the past could have resulted in profits, and frankly if you were able to predict these at the time, great. The key question now is can the same process continue to predict proper investment strategy in the future?
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As in all things, there are two possibilities.
1. What might have happened
2. What did happen.
2. is a subset of 1. in venn diagram terms.
Returning to the OP, if the table I have partially provided, (obviously the complete table would need to be split up for posting), is a perfect representation of what did happen, then the question remains. Is this sufficient to prove that price history alone can be used to formulate a fiscally positive return?
Are 65 trades enough, with a max draw down of about 10% (highest account balance minus lowest trough) . For example, I am certain that the witnesses I have to affirm the table is what did happen would withstand interrogation before a grand jury (whatever that is).
So effectively we have two questions
1. Do you believe me?
2. Do the purported facts support the OP question/contention.
On the more mundane features of the table, starting at the bottom, here is the relevant data to study.
06-Aug-2014 4:08:46 AM Buy 2 ESU4 @ 1910
05-Aug-2014 9:32:22 PM Sell 2 ESU4 @ 1927
Note the buy price is lower than the sell price. Profit, just like buying and selling a house, but in derivatives trading we can sell before buying, a simple and understood principle.
In this trade, the "profit" was (1927-1910)*50*2 minus (3.95*2)
equals 1692.1 green backs.
That was the very first trade when I logged into the simulator.
Similarly, the last one was
07-Feb-2015 7:03:14 AM Buy 10 ESH5 @ 2048.5
07-Feb-2015 5:23:05 AM Sell 10 ESH5 @ 2056.5
In this trade, the "profit" was (2056.5-2048.5)*50*10 minus (3.95*10)
equals 3960.5
Time in the market for the first trade can be seen to be about 7 hours 36 minutes, and in the second 1 hour40 minutes.
In the first trade the account would require about 2*5000 or 10,000 to be allowed to execute the trade, and the second 10*5000 or 50,000.
I could ask as to what *50*10 minus (3.95*10) refers to, but as I am still trying to get across, I don't care nor am I challenging you on if these figures are accurate reflections of your past simulation or not. As I've noted more that once, as others have noted, the key question is if you can predict future market changes so as to create a profit, not what you may have or not have done in the past.
I admit to some curiosity about the basis behind the apparent discrepancy between your (average profit per trade times your total number of trades) versus the (doubling of your money claim) you first posted; but I don't even care for your answer to this question if it would distract you in any way from the predictive experiment proposed for you.
So how many months do you propose to make the time period for your predictions, and how much will your hypothetical profit exceed the market average?
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As Scrutinizer would say, obfuscation. We are now talking past each other, because the log was predictions. Your concern should be more whether these represent each and every trade, or have the bad ones been culled? Clearly there is little point in me starting this thread if that had been the case. I indeed am still interested in the OP question being answered on the presumption of truth telling, and this has been studiously avoided. Someone may happen along and answer it, but I am now not holding breath....
Still, in the interests of the thread I will post the next ESM5 trade, which will be a profit, a loss and/or a reversal of the current.
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Having some confusion with the implications of future predictions going from this moment forward versus past claimed or real history?
But let's just focus on the future in the interests of the thread. Post in the thread as you make each trade. Post the price and the number of lots or shares traded. And post right now how long you wish the experiment to run, and what you would consider a successful profit at the end of that time. If you wish to convince most people here...
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2001
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That's by design. Remember the "O" word that was introduced earlier. It's part of the con.
I've given up on understanding the odd math, and I don't even want proof of his prior "trades." Neither really matter. There are undoubtably people out there who have doubled their investment in 6 months even using real money. But others have halved it. The only question therefore is can a person double it again and again and again the same way. There are many reasons I am skeptic, but I am willing to shut up and see what happens if Samson agrees. Especially if it doesn't involve any of my money.
Samson, please remember to post the length of the test period you wish to use, and the minimum profit you would consider a successful demonstration over that period. Shall we go for 6 months and double the investment as you cite happened before? But it is your call. Thanks for your willingness to prove your point in this way!
Loss Leader
I would save the receptionist., Moderator
Seems like a good a time as any to plug The Signal And The Noise by Nate Silver.
You can't beat the market, at least not on purpose.
You can't beat the market, at least not on purpose.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I think I like kevsta's thread (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=262943) better. It wasn't any more comprehensible than this one but at least he tried to explain his system to us knuckleheads.
....and there were some pretty graphs with all kinds of lines on them. Where are the graphs in this thread ?
I am disappoint
The key here is to realise no one has attempted an answer to the question in the OP, yet thread drift is requiring me to make you all rich. And I won't even know.
I said I was not trying to sell something.
I just asked a question.
Please one of you Skeptics answer it. (admittedly Scrutiniser did).
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