Technical analysis

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Samson said:
I perceive a wish to assume I am wrong, which is in itself ironic.
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Seems reasonable to me. After all, there are many more ways to go wrong than right. I'd say my default is "probably wrong" as well. And, since I think the market is chaotic and random (at practical scales), then I come over even more to the "wrong" camp.

This can't be much of a surprise. Wouldn't your own response to such a claim be, "Prove it?"

ETA: If someone more trading savvy than I would participate, would you be open to a thread to test this, real time (or whatever is possible)? Providing, of course, you don't have to reveal proprietary information - I wouldn't expect you to do that.
 
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Samson said:
Yes, but 6 months was scorned by other posters. 65 round turns has its own likelihood of statistical clustering, how do you assess that?
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I'm not likely to remember a bet 10 years from now and you seemed so confident that 6 months was sufficient. Has your confidence in your system wavered?
 
Spindrift said:
I'm not likely to remember a bet 10 years from now and you seemed so confident that 6 months was sufficient. Has your confidence in your system wavered?
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Why, I only started the thread yesterday.
If we took everything from international softs through grains bonds currencies and stock indices, over many time periods, I could post a hundred trades a day and prove the theory.
 
Samson said:
Why, I only started the thread yesterday.
If we took everything from international softs through grains bonds currencies and stock indices, over many time periods, I could post a hundred trades a day and prove the theory.
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Okay then do so.
 
Maybe post the price too?
I got $87.31/share
You get 24.25 shares.
 
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timhau said:
You have a way of doubling your money every six months, and yet you prefer to run a business that bleeds cash?
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It is always contradictions like this one that I find extra amusing, but there are some people who aren't bothered by it.

There is a scam where someone sells the "mark" a machine that literally is said to make real currency from blank paper (actually the machine is pre-loaded with hidden real bills). When asked why the they are selling it, the con artist says, "I need some quick cash." Apparently enough people find this plausible that it has become established among the common scams.
 
There once was a TV show called Racket Squad. They had a tag line I like, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."
 
Sorry- wrong thread. I moved it, but I'm glad that other people also liked the episode I mentioned.
 
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Giordano said:
One of my favorite Twilight Zones has a crook wake up in the afterlife and find that he can have anything he wants, except to meet with other people he knew when they were both alive. He always wins at gambling and everyone agrees with everything he says. At first he is amazed and very pleased. But then he gets so bored that he begs an "angel" to send him to "the other place." The "angel laughs a demonic laugh and tells him that he is in "the other place.".
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Thanks for that memory. I looked up the episode, it's free to watch on Hulu: http://www.hulu.com/watch/440861
 
DrDave said:
Are you doing this with real money at the minute?
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A recent (last year) programme on TV, the title of which escapes me, looked at personal trading on the markets, including tracking real markets with pretend money, 'training' programmes and courses.

One of the findings was I suppose not very surprising and that was when people were using virtual or pretend money they often did rather well, but when it came to using their own money and were much more cautious, the same people tended to lose money. They used several examples.

When you know it's for real them you have a real stake.
 
Just a reminder to Samson: if $100,000 dollars is too much for you to acquire/risk using your algorithm in real life, the exponential component of your proposal (double your money in 6 months) can easily solve your problem with your cash flow. If you can spare $100 now, in 5 years you will have $100,000. If you have already been playing the market for decades, this would be a great investment for you.
 
Giordano said:
Just a reminder to Samson: if $100,000 dollars is too much for you to acquire/risk using your algorithm in real life, the exponential component of your proposal (double your money in 6 months) can easily solve your problem with your cash flow. If you can spare $100 now, in 5 years you will have $100,000. If you have already been playing the market for decades, this would be a great investment for you.
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It is not possible to scale this fine project to $100. However it can be attempted with about 5k, the margin requirement for one contract. Note I have already placed a bet on the thread, long the market at It is slightly out of the money. Let us see what happens. I would follow anyone else who tried their hand too,
 
marplots said:
Thanks for that memory. I looked up the episode, it's free to watch on Hulu: http://www.hulu.com/watch/440861
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Thanks for giving me and Karen something to watch this afternoon!

I grew up on The Twilight Zone, and really got creeped out by it at times.

There was one where three astronauts return from space and then...

Well, you'll just have to look for that one!
 
I assume everyone has bought their Emini contract. After all, 1000 Us for one mouse click sounds like a good deal.
 
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