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Global warming discussion III

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no pause in AGW ....get over it and move on....you have no case. Just tripe from the denier blogs.

Nope, here is the case ... Why "Global Warming" Failed & Why Climate Change is Real

In the face of the hottest years on record and ocean numbers off the chart you insist there has been no warming....wait til you see 2015...

The difference between these "hottest years on record" is only a few hundredths of a degree and it's statistically insignificant and it's called the Pause / Hiatus. Sure there has been warming and cooling, it's called natural variability.

There is likely a medical term for persistent delusion...denial of reality.
THIS is reality....

Mmm sounds more like you have a case of Psychological projection to me :p


and even the energy companies are taking steps to deal with it.....you on the other hand

Sure, I'm taking steps just not for CAGW but something useful.


You still dodging the one cold record?? Care to explain that cold blue dot in the Atlantic? I think this is the third time you've dodged a pointed question. :rolleyes:

Gezz, your getting like RC :p

That cold spot in the Atlantic and opposite hot spots elsewhere are caused by the Jet Stream undulations. It depends on which side of the Jet Stream each location happens to be.

Jet Stream Undulations
Typically, the jet stream represents a separation between cold arctic air and warmer southern air. If you are north of the jet stream, temperatures are cold whereas south of the jet stream it's more likely to be warm.


And NO I don't think Global Warming is causing these changes to the Jet Stream it is something far bigger and further away than that :eek:
 
Which is the exact equivalent of a denier saying there's no global warming because it snowed in Chicago.

Unless you'd like to provide evidence the heatwave is caused by AGW?

Not at all, read carefully, the story of India's unprecedented heat wave actually states "...India is struggling to cope with one of the deadliest heatwaves to hit the subcontinent. And its attempt to do so is raising a question for the whole planet – how can humans cope with the kinds of temperatures that scientists fear may become ever more common?..."

It isn't laying the sole blame for this heat wave on AGW as the primary causative for this disaster. What they are, quite accurately and properly, saying is that in a world warming due to the effects of human emitted CO2, events like this will become increasingly more common. That is simply a true and increasingly supportable fact. Much the same can be said about a number of natural disasters over the last several years. The floods in Texas, Hurricane Sandy, Boston's "snowmeggedon", etc., are all examples of the types of extreme weather related events that our understandings of forced rapid climate change due to dramatically enhanced CO2 ratios indicate are a more common feature.
 
[...]

The difference between these "hottest years on record" is only a few hundredths of a degree and it's statistically insignificant and it's called the Pause / Hiatus. Sure there has been warming and cooling, it's called natural variability.

[...]
I'm confused, Haig, and I hope you can clear something up for me.

Somewhere, in another thread perhaps, you described yourself as a 'numpty', and that your 'mission' (my word) here is merely to present "facts and data", if only because you yourself feel you have such a tenuous grasp of what science is that you cannot, in all honesty, go beyond that (please correct me if my summary of your position is faulty).

Yet, here you are in this post of yours (that I'm quoting), confidently stating that something is "statistically insignificant"! :jaw-dropp

How could you be so confident? :confused: What analyses - statistical or otherwise - of the "facts and data" did you do, to lead to your conclusion?
 
Which is the exact equivalent of a denier saying there's no global warming because it snowed in Chicago.
Hardly exact since it doesn't claim anything, it just points to a graphic example of what "heatwave" can signify, heatwaves being something we expect to see more of as the planet warms. For most of us a heatwave is at worst a discomfort, but at the margins it can be pretty devastating.
 

Are you avoiding my questions because they're too hard?

Not at all, read carefully,...

That's pretty funny. On one hand you deny it, then:

...how can humans cope with the kinds of temperatures that scientists fear may become ever more common?..."
(bolding mine)

It is irrelevant to the discussion, and for exactly the reason I stated - there is no proven link, and it may have nothing to do with climate change. Aberrations happen.

Fear is not evidence.

It isn't laying the sole blame for this heat wave on AGW as the primary causative for this disaster. What they are, quite accurately and properly, saying is that in a world warming due to the effects of human emitted CO2, events like this will become increasingly more common. That is simply a true and increasingly supportable fact.
(bolding mine)

:dl:

It is neither true nor supportable - it is a shot in the dark and it annoys the hell out of me when these "predictions" are touted as anything other than crystal-ball gazing.

Is this one of the same predictions that stated with a high degree of certainty that there would be more hurricanes and cyclones? Until successive hurricane seasons showed far fewer arising?

Predictions like that are dumb, and they're one of the reasons deniers have so much ammunition.

Back in 2007, the IPCC said it was "more likely than not" (meaning, a greater-than-50-percent probability) that human activities—through global warming—were contributing to an observed intensification of hurricanes in at least some regions of the globe. Now, by contrast, the IPCC says it has "low confidence" that this is happening. (For the IPCC's extensive explanation of its official terminology for expressing degrees scientific certainty, see here.)

Also in 2007, the IPCC considered it "likely"—meaning, more than a 66 percent probability—that the 21st century would see more intense hurricane activity. Now, it only says that it is "more likely than not"—or more than 50 percent probability—that this will be the case, and only for some parts of the world.


link


So far, lots of those predictions about a warmer planet have been proven to be utter nonsense.

Much the same can be said about a number of natural disasters over the last several years. The floods in Texas, Hurricane Sandy, Boston's "snowmeggedon", etc., are all examples of the types of extreme weather related events that our understandings of forced rapid climate change due to dramatically enhanced CO2 ratios indicate are a more common feature.

Sure, just like California is getting more rain - exactly as predicted - due to climate change.

Tell that to the water reservoirs. Oh wait, now there's a drought, Ca is going to be more susceptible to drought?/!!!1!!?

Next....
 
Hardly exact since it doesn't claim anything, it just points to a graphic example of what "heatwave" can signify, heatwaves being something we expect to see more of as the planet warms. For most of us a heatwave is at worst a discomfort, but at the margins it can be pretty devastating.

Since it was posted in this thread and contains a statement that heat waves are more likely due to AGW it really is a direct equivalent.

And if you want to argue hotter heatwaves, why are the record temperatures in heatwaves still 30-50 years old?

Predictions and linking events to AGW is wrong until the science can prove it is true, and that's not happening at the moment.
 
Which is the exact equivalent of a denier saying there's no global warming because it snowed in Chicago.

Exactly! It's exactly like that!

Unless you'd like to provide evidence the heatwave is caused by AGW?

Why would I provide evidence for a claim I haven't made?

You should try, like you know, actually reading the article. A novel suggestion, I know, but you will discover exactly what the relevance of the event is to the thread - including startling insights into the probability of events such as occurring. Which, I think you will find, is quite well established in the literature.
 
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Are you avoiding my questions because they're too hard?



That's pretty funny. On one hand you deny it, then:

(bolding mine)

It is irrelevant to the discussion, and for exactly the reason I stated - there is no proven link, and it may have nothing to do with climate change. Aberrations happen.

Fear is not evidence.

(bolding mine)

:dl:

It is neither true nor supportable - it is a shot in the dark and it annoys the hell out of me when these "predictions" are touted as anything other than crystal-ball gazing.

Is this one of the same predictions that stated with a high degree of certainty that there would be more hurricanes and cyclones? Until successive hurricane seasons showed far fewer arising?

Predictions like that are dumb, and they're one of the reasons deniers have so much ammunition.




link


So far, lots of those predictions about a warmer planet have been proven to be utter nonsense.



Sure, just like California is getting more rain - exactly as predicted - due to climate change.

Tell that to the water reservoirs. Oh wait, now there's a drought, Ca is going to be more susceptible to drought?/!!!1!!?

Next....

You should probably familiarize yourself with the literature around attribution published over the last couple of years

https://scholar.google.com.au/schol...&sa=X&ei=hKRrVY-xJ6THmAXk6oEI&ved=0CAgQgQMwAA

There is actually very substantial modeling demonstrating that the chances of certain events occurring outside the context of a warming planet are so statistically unlikely that it is as close as you're ever going to get to "proving" that the event was caused by climate change.

I'd be quite happy to make some sort of a bet with you that the evidence that this event was related to climate change will be published within 12 months. You game?
 
Since it was posted in this thread and contains a statement that heat waves are more likely due to AGW it really is a direct equivalent.

And if you want to argue hotter heatwaves, why are the record temperatures in heatwaves still 30-50 years old?

Predictions and linking events to AGW is wrong until the science can prove it is true, and that's not happening at the moment.
Right. Its pretty clear you don't really know what you're talking about. First, the evidence around events like heat waves is not measured solely by the extremes - they are also measured by the frequency and duration. We are observing more intense extremes that last longer and happen more regularly.

Second, science doesn't "prove" anything - that's for maths and liquor. As I mentioned above, once you have a preponderance of evidence that is statistically significant you most certainly can make inferences around the connection between extreme events and the warming climate. You're right to say the evidence for this heatwave doesn't exist YET but, as I said, I'm not a betting but am confident of the odds that it WILL emerge over the coming 12 months. Are you confident it won't?
 
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I'd be quite happy to make some sort of a bet with you that the evidence that this event was related to climate change will be published within 12 months. You game?

Yeah, count me in for a chocolate fish on that.

Start the count.
 
That's pretty funny. On one hand you deny it, then:
(bolding mine)

The issue isn’t to just read, you must add comprehension of what the article is actually saying or it is just a bunch of words not a conveyance of understanding.

A warming climate has influences and impacts upon most, if not all, weather related events. It may not make all events stronger, more frequent or last longer, but it does have one or several of these impacts upon some events. The problem is in making specific attributions such as saying that any particular event only happened because of climate change. Weather events occur because of a confluence of factors. AGW most often influences weather events by changing the amount of energy involved in these weather events. Sometimes this translates to higher energy storms, sometimes this means that storms form or travel into regions and areas that normally do not see such storms. There are almost no single weather events that are directly and solely due to climate change, but all weather events are influenced by the factors that shape long term weather trends and patterns (aka “Climate”).

It is irrelevant to the discussion, and for exactly the reason I stated - there is no proven link, and it may have nothing to do with climate change. Aberrations happen.

The primary difference between weather and climate is somewhat similar to the one that distinguishes a slide from a movie. Weather is a snapshot at a particular location and time. Climate is an overview of large regional/planetary areas over extended time references. The smallest meaningful interval when discussing climate is three decades. You are correct in saying that extreme events (aberrations) can occur any time the confluence of generating, sustaining or compounding factors converge regardless of what the overall long-term climate trend happens to be. This said, a cooling or warming pattern of climate will result in different probabilities of those generating, sustaining and compounding factors. This is why we can say that in a warming climate we would expect to see more extensive, sustained heat waves, stronger but not necessarily more frequent, hurricanes, as well as a generally increased amount of rainfall and associated storm strength (shifting wind patterns, again partially due to the shifting of Jetstream and Hadley cell dynamics that are responsive to changing climate patterns, determine where that rain will fall and where those storms will evolve).

It is neither true nor supportable - it is a shot in the dark and it annoys the hell out of me when these "predictions" are touted as anything other than crystal-ball gazing.

As for your annoyance, it should be focused on your own lack of understanding of issues that you apparently possess many conflicting and incomplete understandings about.

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/impacts.htm

Current Extreme Weather & Climate Change
https://www.climatecommunication.org/new/features/extreme-weather/overview/
https://www.climatecommunication.org/new/features/extreme-weather/download-full-pdf/

http://www.livescience.com/414-scientists-natural-disasters-common.html

Is this one of the same predictions that stated with a high degree of certainty that there would be more hurricanes and cyclones? Until successive hurricane seasons showed far fewer arising?

First, please demonstrate any "prediction" made by a climate scientist which indicated that they expected hurricane/cyclone numbers to increase every year from now on.

These are, for the most part false memes and tropes spread by science denialists, There have been some studies which indicated that increased warming may lead increasing numbers of hurricanes, the consensus has generally been that warming will lead to more intense hurricanes and expand the range of where we will see such storms sustained. Frequency is much harder to determine due to the paucity of historic and especially prehistoric data regarding hurricane occurrence. While there have been several studies indicating increased frequency as warming continues it is possible that due to changes in wind shear patterns, which are also climate dependent, there may be offsetting factors that counteract cyclonogenesis.


better link-http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3780869/pdf/pnas.201308732.pdf
from conclusion of referenced paper:
All of these results address only the future changes in the large scale
flow conditions leading to anomalous hurricane tracks, such as Sandy’s. These conditions will influence the probability of Sandy-like events to the extent that the probability of a tropical cyclone (or hybrid, posttropical cyclone) moving into position to be steered onshore in easterly flow remains similar to what it is today; this, in turn, is related to the overall tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic basin. Recent studies disagree on whether Atlantic hurricane frequencies will increase or decrease as the climate warms (20–22), and little work has been done to date on how extratropical transition frequency may also respond, it being a function of both hurricane frequency trends and the local and global environment under which it transitions. Thus, it remains uncertain how the frequency of extratropical transitioning storms will change in the future.

Finally, recent studies have suggested that accelerated warming over the Arctic (Arctic Amplification) since the mid-1990s has contributed to a slow-down of the Atlantic jet stream and increased frequencies in slow-moving, large-scale Rossby wave patterns, and that these waves are responsible for extreme weather over the United States (23–25). In particular, such a link has been used to attribute the westward steering and landfall of Sandy in part to the Arctic Amplification (26). Our analysis indicates that the proposed link between Arctic Amplification and the westward steering of tropical cyclones does not seem to be supported by the CMIP5 simulations: all models project some degree of Arctic Amplification, although most also project a decrease
in the conditions responsible for the westward steering, namely easterlies and cyclonic wave breaking.

It will be interesting to see how this paper is treated in peer review over the next few years, though it actually supports that Sandy (or more precisely Sandy's path) was attributable to current warming, it suggests that as the warming continues the model runs they made suggested that such paths might become less likely instead of more likely. Good news if their modeling ends up accurately reflecting reality.

additional reading:

Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2646.html

Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000274/full

Implications of Hurricane – Sea Surface Temperature Relationship
https://circle.ubc.ca/bitstream/handle/2429/53266/Paper_271_Rosowsky.pdf?sequence=1

So far, lots of those predictions about a warmer planet have been proven to be utter nonsense.

What “predictions” are you talking about and how have they been “proven” to be “utter nonsense”?
Please site and reference the scientific support for this assertion.
 
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The problem is in making specific attributions such as saying that any particular event only happened because of climate change.

We're in agreement then.

Looks like you typed an immense number of words to get there, though.

I have no idea why you start a dissertation on Weather 101, but it's wasted on me, sorry.

As for your annoyance, it should be focused on your own lack of understanding of issues that you apparently possess many conflicting and incomplete understandings about.

Gosh there are a lot of psychic posters around. Where exactly is my understanding lacking?

Please do be specific.

First, please demonstrate any "prediction" made by a climate scientist which indicated that they expected hurricane/cyclone numbers to increase every year from now on.

It was a past prediction, since proven incorrect, so that question has already been dealt with.

What “predictions” are you talking about and how have they been “proven” to be “utter nonsense”?
Please site and reference the scientific support for this assertion.

Refer the link already posted.
 
it's wasted on me, sorry

Evidently it is. More's the pity.

Gosh there are a lot of psychic posters around. Where exactly is my understanding lacking?

Please do be specific.

-- You are labouring under the misapprehension someone somewhere predicted "with a high degree of certainty" (note: when scientists use words like "high" they actually represent a quantifiable metric, the way you loosely adopt the term when it most certainly isn't supported in the article you posted to support your opinion suggests that you don't understand this point either) that tropical storms would increase in a warming climate.
-- You argued that because heat wave temperature extremes were supposedly higher 50 years ago that current events aren't being caused by climate change - despite the fact that no-one has ever argued around causation, that's just a straw man that you seem to have constructed in your confusion - which belies not only a misunderstanding of the relationship between climate and weather events but the very nature of heat waves, which are by very definition events of duration and not temperature records.
-- You argued that science should "prove" things which not only belies a fundamental misapprehension about the nature of science but, again, a fundamental misapprehension about the relationship between climate and weather. It also demonstrates an unfamiliarity with the recent literature on the attribution of extreme weather events to changing climatic conditions.
 
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Since it was posted in this thread and contains a statement that heat waves are more likely due to AGW it really is a direct equivalent.

And if you want to argue hotter heatwaves, why are the record temperatures in heatwaves still 30-50 years old?

Predictions and linking events to AGW is wrong until the science can prove it is true, and that's not happening at the moment.

The last heatwave this bad in India was in 1998, a year when global records were broken.

https://theconversation.com/a-heatwave-thats-too-hot-for-india-to-handle-with-more-to-come-42468

Is it climate change?

While we will have to wait for analysis of this heatwave, others have calculated how climate change has affected the likelihood of extreme heat.
Attribution analyses can now detect the climate change finger print. We can now calculate the increased likelihood that specific extreme events are due to anthropogenic forcings, that is, our continually escalating rate of greenhouse gas emissions.
Human influence at least doubled the chances of recent UK events according to the first formal event attribution study, which also made the ominous forecast that severe heatwaves could become commonplace by the 2040s. Sophie Lewis and David Karoly calculated that there was at least a 2.5 times increase in the odds that Australian extreme heat events are due to human influences to 2005, and a fivefold increase in this risk using simulations for 2006–2020.
On average, India as warmed 0.60C during last 112 years, with Goa and Tamil Nadu in southern India recording the highest increase in monthly mean maximum temperature (0.05C per year) and (0.04C per year) respectively.
Heavy rainfall events are increasing in frequency and low and medium rainfall events are decreasing. This current heat wave was most intense across the southern regions of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where projected temperature increases by 2100 are lower, compared to the north where changes of up to 4.5C are projected.
 
A heat wave is generally defined as a period of several days to weeks of abnormally hot weather.
In the past 3-4 decades, there has been an increasing trend in high-humidity heat waves, which are characterized by the persistence of extremely high night-time temperature.1 The combination of high humidity and high night-time temperature can make for a deadly pairing, offering no relief and posing a particular threat for the elderly. Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths annually than hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined.2
At the same time, low-humidity heat waves associated with droughts and fueled in part by climate change contribute to the dry conditions that are driving wild fires.3 4
Numerous studies have documented that human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and severity of heat waves across the globe.5 6 7 8 9
Fo
- See more at: https://www.climatecommunication.or.../heat-waves-the-details/#sthash.P0O3xZQU.dpuf

More on heat waves.
 
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