UK - Election 2015

[The Don]

England in five years time? Scotland set adrift, out of the EU. A lonely little island off the north west coast of Europe?

I'm not sure about Scotland set adrift but I'm very concerned about the rest of it.

Any service industries which can and which need to be part of the EU will relocate to Ireland - the Celtic Tiger rises again - and there'll be a slow run down of manufacturing. For example the Nissan factory won't close immediately, it'll stop getting new models (or the cost of bribing Nissan and others to stay will exceed any net contribution to the EU) and wither on the vine while existing plants within the EU get the new models or new plants are constructed in Eastern Europe. These plants will want local suppliers for their parts and sub-assemblies which will be a double hit for UK manufacturing.

At least the large scale movement of labour back to the EU will reduce the stresses on the housing market.

 

[Rum]

So, if they had gone into coalition with Labour at any stage, the same thing would have resulted?

Their great reason for existing, in my view, was to eventually replace Labour. To have a clash of liberalism Vs conservatism would have been much better for the country, in my view, than the puerile clash of lower class vs middle class, worker vs employer, trade unions vs business that we are so often treated to.

Politics in this country is always about the relationship of poorer people with those in power. You can dress it up any way you want but that's what it comes down to.

 

[Rum]

I'm not sure about Scotland set adrift but I'm very concerned about the rest of it.

Any service industries which can and which need to be part of the EU will relocate to Ireland - the Celtic Tiger rises again - and there'll be a slow run down of manufacturing. For example the Nissan factory won't close immediately, it'll stop getting new models (or the cost of bribing Nissan and others to stay will exceed any net contribution to the EU) and wither on the vine while existing plants within the EU get the new models or new plants are constructed in Eastern Europe. These plants will want local suppliers for their parts and sub-assemblies which will be a double hit for UK manufacturing.

At least the large scale movement of labour back to the EU will reduce the stresses on the housing market.

R.E. Scotland - It is pretty hard to see how another referendum (or something like it) can be avoided given that the main plank of SNP policy is independence and the size of the vote they got. They have a democratic mandate now in Scotland which will be pretty hard to counter without appearing to be anti-democratic and down right oppressive - a view many Scots seem to have already of Westminster.

Interesting times..

 

[MikeG]

R.E. Scotland - It is pretty hard to see how another referendum (or something like it) can be avoided given that the main plank of SNP policy is independence and the size of the vote they got. They have a democratic mandate now in Scotland which will be pretty hard to counter without appearing to be anti-democratic and down right oppressive - a view many Scots seem to have already of Westminster.

Interesting times..

That won't be determined by the result of this election, but by what happens in the Scottish Assembly elections next year when no doubt another referendum will be in the SNP manifesto. I don't think it will be as straight forward as you obviously do.

 

[Rum]

That won't be determined by the result of this election, but by what happens in the Scottish Assembly elections next year when no doubt another referendum will be in the SNP manifesto. I don't think it will be as straight forward as you obviously do.

I don't think it will be remotely straightforward. I do however think that with a PM who won't want to go down in the history books as the guy who saw the Union break on the one side, and a clear democratic mandate on the other, the swords will be drawn. I don't however see how the UK government can resist the declared will of the Scottish people for any significant period.

Sad as I for one really do think we are great as a united country..

 

[MikeG]

.......... I don't however see how the UK government can resist the declared will of the Scottish people for any significant period........

What is the declared will of the Scots?

 

[funk de fino]

Of course, the other way to read the situation is to say that despite voting in huge numbers against their instincts for a nationalist party, nothing changed as a result. Scotland's voice was heard even less. So, the backlash against the SNP could be very harsh when all those Scots who expected that vote to make a difference come bumping up against reality. The SNP gains this election could be only slightly more dramatic than their losses at the next one.

Only a non Scot could believe that tripe

 

[Puppycow]

Sure it is fair. UKIP claim to speak for the whole of the UK, and SNP claim to speak for Scotland. The population of Scotland is about a tenth of the UK as a whole. A party that only gets Twice as much of the vote of the SNP across the whole of the UK is naturally far less popular among their presumed constituents than the SNP. There's no problem for me about that at all.

Does your opinion of UKIP colour how you think of this?

Imagine it just as Party A, Party B, Party C, etc., policies unknown and your concern is for democracy itself, not any particular political agenda.

Does it still make sense that a party which got half as many votes got 56 times more political power by virtue of those votes all being concentrated in a certain region?

Or imagine how you would feel about it if it was the party you favored but could not win any seats because its support was spread too thin and not clustered in a certain region?

 

[Rum]

What is the declared will of the Scots?

If you go to the SNP web site, which as a well educated voter I am sure you already have, you will see that bright and large as life the very first item listed is 'Independence'. It is also listed on page 10 of their official manifesto.

And they just won pretty well every seat they could have..

 

[angrysoba]

Does your opinion of UKIP colour how you think of this?

No.

Does your suspicion about my motives colour how you think of my post?

 

[Puppycow]

R.E. Scotland - It is pretty hard to see how another referendum (or something like it) can be avoided given that the main plank of SNP policy is independence and the size of the vote they got. They have a democratic mandate now in Scotland which will be pretty hard to counter without appearing to be anti-democratic and down right oppressive - a view many Scots seem to have already of Westminster.

Interesting times..

Isn't it a bit soon for another referendum? Plus, I don't think that's what a lot of people thought they were voting for this time around.

 

[Rum]

Isn't it a bit soon for another referendum? Plus, I don't think that's what a lot of people thought they were voting for this time around.

You are right of course and the SNP manifesto says quite clearly that this election was not about independence, even though it is actually a formally declared aim (in the manifesto). I am not sure how it will pan out of course, but it seems to me that the Scots have 'changed their minds' after the last referendum. I have little doubt if there was another one today they would win it. I just don't see how the UK government can resist that over the longer term.

 

[funk de fino]

What is the declared will of the Scots?

I don't know about will, but 50% of the electorate that voted wiped the Unionists off the face of the electoral map here. They voted for a party who rejected austerity, do not want Trident and are pro EU

One of the prouder things for me was the utter rejection of the UKIP racists while the English embraced them in their millions. I have to hand it to the Tories, they played a great game. Scaring the English with the SNP card. "Vote SNP get Labour" when translated into Home Counties actually meant Vote Labour get SNP. Genius!

 

[funk de fino]

You are right of course and the SNP manifesto says quite clearly that this election was not about independence, even though it is actually a formally declared aim (in the manifesto). I am not sure how it will pan out of course, but it seems to me that the Scots have 'changed their minds' after the last referendum. I have little doubt if there was another one today they would win it. I just don't see how the UK government can resist that over the longer term.

As a nationalist I say you are wrong. This was an anti Labour and Lib Dem vote. Not a pro Indy vote. The only people who mad it about referendums was the unionists

 

[funk de fino]

Does your opinion of UKIP colour how you think of this?

Imagine it just as Party A, Party B, Party C, etc., policies unknown and your concern is for democracy itself, not any particular political agenda.

Does it still make sense that a party which got half as many votes got 56 times more political power by virtue of those votes all being concentrated in a certain region?

Or imagine how you would feel about it if it was the party you favored but could not win any seats because its support was spread too thin and not clustered in a certain region?

If alternative voting was good enough for the Scots it should have been good enough for the UK. But like the Indy referendum, that ship has sailed for now.

 

[Puppycow]

No.

Does your suspicion about my motives colour how you think of my post?

Motives?

Please don't take it personally.

It just seems anti-democratic to me that votes concentrated in a certain area should count more than a greater number of votes spread out over a wider area. I'm not really understanding how it could not be seen that way. Not that I care for UKIP.

 

[MikeG]

If you go to the SNP web site, which as a well educated voter I am sure you already have, you will see that bright and large as life the very first item listed is 'Independence'. It is also listed on page 10 of their official manifesto.

And they just won pretty well every seat they could have..

Independence might have been in their manifesto, but a 2nd referendum, to their credit, not only wasn't, it wasn't mentioned during the campaign. In fact, it has been repeatedly ruled out by Sturgeon in relation to this election. She quite clearly said a number of times that a referendum was not what this election was about.

Everyone understands that they want independence, but quite clearly there is no mandate for them to ask for a second referendum until such has been explicitly in their manifesto. This, I expect, will be in their programme for the Scottish Assembly elections next year.

 

[Rum]

As a nationalist I say you are wrong. This was an anti Labour and Lib Dem vote. Not a pro Indy vote. The only people who mad it about referendums was the unionists

I don't see how you can support that view. A party whose stated (and printed in the current manifesto) policy is to gain independence won by a landslide. If you vote for a party you can't pick and chose what bits you want them to implement. You guys voted for them and you have got them. They will pursue it because they have to. Democracy at work, whether you are a unionist of a nationalist.

 

[Rum]

Independence might have been in their manifesto, but a 2nd referendum, to their credit, not only wasn't, it wasn't mentioned during the campaign. In fact, it has been repeatedly ruled out by Sturgeon in relation to this election. She quite clearly said a number of times that a referendum was not what this election was about.

Everyone understands that they want independence, but quite clearly there is no mandate for them to ask for a second referendum until such has been explicitly in their manifesto. This, I expect, will be in their programme for the Scottish Assembly elections next year.

Quite - and I didn't say it was. I am simply pointing out that the Scottish people have spoken and referendum or not I don't see how London can just ignore it. Devo Max or whatever won't do it any longer.

 

[Agatha]

Motives?

Please don't take it personally.

It just seems anti-democratic to me that votes concentrated in a certain area should count more than a greater number of votes spread out over a wider area. I'm not really understanding how it could not be seen that way. Not that I care for UKIP.

Because our system is really 650 elections rather than one big election. I don't agree with FPTP but I cannot see it being changed - that ship has sailed as was said upthread. In the future, I expect that the parties will concentrate even more on heavy campaigning in selected seats and slightly less on national campaigning.