Continuation Part 14: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[NotEvenWrong]

One thing's for sure, in her scenario she's using very inflated priors. The prior probability according to her scenario should be very close to zero, not 10%.

Yeah! Imagine what the prior would be if the hypothesis were a pagan sex orgy involving people that didn't even know each other! (It's too bad when Thoughtful applies Bayesian inference, she can't do it right.)

 

[Bill Williams]

One thing's for sure, in her scenario she's using very inflated priors. The prior probability according to her scenario should be very close to zero, not 10%.

Exactly. Garbage in, garbage out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_acquisition

 

[andreajo]

I know that case well. It's a good example but the difference with this one is we know Jodi did in fact kill Travis, therefore (in the minds of her supporters) he must be a bad guy in order to excuse her from criminal responsibility. There is no need to perform the same gymnastics here since we don't think Knox or Sollecito had anything to do with it and I have not seen any suggestion of victim blaming in the discussion of this case.

Her elevation to sainthood on the hate sites is useful cover, conscious and unconscious, for the real psychological driver which is hatred of Amanda Knox.

After reading and reflecting on this, I conducted a small social experiment on Twitter, challenging one of the frequent PGP to forget Amanda for 24 hours, and perform an act of kindness in memory of Meredith. I said I would do the same. I checked in this morning to see what her response had been. Either she didn't get my note, or she decided to ignore me completely. I took a day off and did something nice, so the effort was not all in vain.

 

[Bill Williams]

Gosh. I might even resort to the internet cliche of "Wow. Just wow".

I suspect that one of four things might be driving this volte face (and I'm still amused at how Ganong even managed to slip an arbitrary French phrase into her announcement - it's not perhaps that she needs people to be impressed by her command of French, is it.....? ):

1) She became quickly disillusioned by the opinions of many of the posters on her forum in the wake of the SC decision, and began to see those people for what they really are;

2) She stood back and decided that in fact she didn't want to devote any more time and energy to this forum - perhaps because she's become so disillusioned herself;

3) She decided (maybe in discussions with others) that there was now the very real possibility of her getting caught up in legal action, since she has legal responsibilities as the nominal owner of the forum; 4) She responded to some sort of formal legal communication giving her fair warning of legal repercussions to the content on her forum.

For myself, I'm glad that .org is closing. I had always hoped that this verdict would cause the majority of pro-guilt commentators to pack up their tents quietly and go away. I think that this would be in the best interest of everyone - including themselves. I'm very interested to see reactions to this announcement - many pro-guilt posters do seem to be conceding that their obsession with the pro-guilt campaign was taking over their whole life, and that the enforced closure of their "battleground" might indeed be a blessing in disguise.

It will be somewhat interesting to see what happens with .net and TJMK now. And/or whether any pro-guilt posters come over to ISF to air their arguments here. I doubt it somehow, but we live in hope.

.ORG poster SomeAlibi is perhaps the one sane, legal voice they have there. He summarized it as the shifting libel landscape, or some such thing.

Ergon promises to soldier on. If Edward McCall is who I believe he is, there's a change of definition coming up for the guy in a month or so. Michael of .NET has already cautioned his posters about libel. Others have been mysteriously silent.

TJMK continues to be just bat-pooh crazy.

 

[Dan O.]

I'm going to substantially disagree with regard to mathematically modeling a trial.

While we are capable of making split second decissions with limited input, there is no guarantee that those decissions are always correct. In our evolutionary history it was important that we make a snap judgment and begin to act and not wait around until we had certain proof that there was a tiger in the bush.

I don't claim that a mathematical model can or should model the human thought process. It is instead the structure of the model that can help us identify weaknesses in the underlying data. It's something that I've attempted to do throughout these trials. When a piece of evidence is presented, we make snap judgments on the reliability of that evidence. Often this involves confirmation bias on the basis of how that evedence supports our current belief. We need to get beyond that biased level of thinking and come up with a factual basis for accepting or rejecting the evidence. Where I have gone many times is seeking the documentary trail of the evedence and the information exchanges that could compromise independent observations.

One example that comes to mind is the scream. In constructing the framework for the scream meme I found that all scream references (including Rudy's) could trace back to the police asking Amanda if she heard a scream durring her November 5/6 interrogations.

The lesson to be learned here is the importance of independent and timely gathering of all witness statements, producing contemporaneous documentation (including recording of interviews) and controlling the release of information until the previous steps have been done.

 

[NotEvenWrong]

In all seriousness, LondonJohn, Bayesian inference is the analytically "right" way to calculate probability of guilt or innocence here. Your point about the island of 50 people vs. a city of 5 million would be incorporated in the prior.

Given NO evidence other than "a murder was committed", the prior probability that a random person did it in the island scenario is 1/50. In the huge city scenario, it would be 1/5,000,000. So you need stronger evidence to convict for the city scenario since the prior is 100,000x smaller.

The analogy to this case is that we have two competing hypotheses: what is the probability Rudy (a drifter with criminal activity in his background and a history of breaking in to buildings through 2nd floor windows) committed a murder by himself vs. what is the probability Rudy teamed up with two people he didn't even know to kill Meredith for some arbitrary, unknown reason. Maybe it was a pagan sex ritual, maybe it was over a turd, maybe they just wanted to go out and have fun and they randomly ran into each other and decided to kill one of Amanda's roommate... no one seems to know! I think anyone who is not impossibly biased realized one of these scenarios sounds completely absurd, so the prior is way, way lower. So we need way, way more evidence than a contaminated bra clasp and a knife that wasn't even processed using correct LCN protocols (see Peter Gill, the guy that invented LCN analysis) to convict. Then you have the positive evidence for innocence -- gastric emptying, TOD, no evidence at all of Amanda in the murder room, the only evidence of Raffaele being a bra clasp collected 46 days late with the profiles of 2 other unknown contributors (the definition of contamination).

The great thing about Thoughtful's post is that she showed mathematically that when there is reliable evidence of only ONE person in a murder scenario, it is pretty likely that person did it. What she did when she applied "Bayesian inference" in the Kercher murder, is conclude that it wasn't actually one person, it was really 3 people who didn't know each other that teamed up to murder Meredith in a sex orgy gone wrong (or whatever). And somehow the other two just didn't leave any reliable evidence of themselves behind in a brutal, bloody murder. So much for the proper use of Bayes' theorem.

 

[Bill Williams]

IA/IIP is chronicling a developing story of what poster "B_Real" called, "Drama in the bunker as the Russians close in."

At issue is whether or not Andrea Vogt respectfully greeted Frank Sfarzo after last Friday's stunning complete exoneration of two innocents.

Playing into this was a .NET poster who traveled to Rome on Ergon's presspass, a pass given to Ergon in 2013 (apparently) by Mignini himself, for attendance at Cassazione verdicts.

The fact that someone does not need a presspass to attend, shall not delay us here.

Following the verdict this person, Kristeva, became the victim of Sfarzo's legendary snark. It resulted in Kristeva encouraging Sfarzo to self-replicate. Apparently Cassazione had hurt Kristeva's feelings by exonerating two innocents.

Then Vogt greeted Sfarzo respectfully, apparently with a well-known practise of a kiss on the cheek - European style. Apparently Nadeau and Sfarzo greeted in the same way.

Then war broke out on .ORG over this. Posts were made, posts were deleted - my view is that perhaps some were deleted lest casual readers see this as the looney-tunes melt-down it is.

.ORG cannot close soon enough.

 

[analemma]

From Amanda Knox in the Seattle Times

http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/amanda-knox-moving-forward-with-gratitude-and-a-purpose/

I am SO Proud to have been one of the nameless strangers that has contributed, in my own small way, to righting this injustice and bringing about this joyful day.

Analemma

 

[acbytesla]

From Amanda Knox in the Seattle Times

http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/amanda-knox-moving-forward-with-gratitude-and-a-purpose/

I am SO Proud to have been one of the nameless strangers that has contributed, in my own small way, to righting this injustice and bringing about this joyful day.

Analemma

Unfortunately, my Seattle Times access has reached my limit without subscribing. Any chance someone can PM me the article?

 

[Bill Williams]

Unfortunately, my Seattle Times access has reached my limit without subscribing. Any chance someone can PM me the article?

By Amanda M. Knox
Special to The Times
Throughout these past seven and a half years, knowledge of my innocence propelled me forward. Your kindness sustained me. I am, and forever will be, grateful to the many people who helped me survive when I was at my most vulnerable and almost entirely lost. To them I say, thank you. Many times over, thank you.

After so many years of trial and uncertainty, I feel relieved and grateful for the decision of Italy’s highest court to find me innocent of Meredith Kercher’s murder. And I am equally grateful that Raffaele Sollecito can now also move past his own wrongful conviction. I am acutely aware, however, that this story does not have a happy ending. Unlike a wrongful conviction, which can be overturned, nothing will ever bring Meredith Kercher back to her family and loved ones.

Whatever the future holds for me, I know that I must give back. I survived because my dear family gave up their lives to be with me in Italy, because scores of friends donated their resources, because my lawyers worked tirelessly to bring attention to the evidence that exonerated me, because strangers — from world-renowned DNA experts to former FBI crime-scene investigators to everyday citizens — saw the injustice in my case and spoke out, and because kind residents of Seattle gave me jobs to help me financially while I tried to clear my name. I will do everything I can to pay forward all everyone has done for me.

I am all too aware of how lucky I am to have received such strong support. I am also aware that countless other wrongfully convicted persons do not have such support. I will work to give a voice to those individuals. I will do this because I know how a wrongful conviction can destroy one’s life and because we best honor crime victims by ensuring that the actual perpetrators are brought to justice.

To everyone who has spoken out on my behalf, from Seattle to Rome, thank you. I look forward to making you proud for having supported me and my family.


Amanda M. Knox

 

[carbonjam72]

.ORG poster SomeAlibi is perhaps the one sane, legal voice they have there. He summarized it as the shifting libel landscape, or some such thing.

Ergon promises to soldier on. If Edward McCall is who I believe he is, there's a change of definition coming up for the guy in a month or so. Michael of .NET has already cautioned his posters about libel. Others have been mysteriously silent.

TJMK continues to be just bat-pooh crazy.

Are you able to disclose anything else about Mr McCall's "change of definition"? Will he no longer be a moderator?

I'd also be curious to hear about "God" and PQ at TJMK. Hard to believe they have evaded criminal charges this long, frankly.

 

[carbonjam72]

Reality TV?

IA/IIP is chronicling a developing story of what poster "B_Real" called, "Drama in the bunker as the Russians close in."

At issue is whether or not Andrea Vogt respectfully greeted Frank Sfarzo after last Friday's stunning complete exoneration of two innocents.

Playing into this was a .NET poster who traveled to Rome on Ergon's presspass, a pass given to Ergon in 2013 (apparently) by Mignini himself, for attendance at Cassazione verdicts.

The fact that someone does not need a presspass to attend, shall not delay us here.

Following the verdict this person, Kristeva, became the victim of Sfarzo's legendary snark. It resulted in Kristeva encouraging Sfarzo to self-replicate. Apparently Cassazione had hurt Kristeva's feelings by exonerating two innocents.

Then Vogt greeted Sfarzo respectfully, apparently with a well-known practise of a kiss on the cheek - European style. Apparently Nadeau and Sfarzo greeted in the same way.

Then war broke out on .ORG over this. Posts were made, posts were deleted - my view is that perhaps some were deleted lest casual readers see this as the looney-tunes melt-down it is.

.ORG cannot close soon enough.

I don't know, does anyone else get the feeling this would make a pretty riveting reality show? What the denizens do, on and off the discussion boards, and how they intersect with the real world?

It's like, Jersey Shore MEETS Duck Dynasty. I don't know.

Interesting that Mignini sides with Ergon/"God". That says something, imo.

 

[acbytesla]

By Amanda M. Knox
Special to The Times
Throughout these past seven and a half years, knowledge of my innocence propelled me forward. Your kindness sustained me. I am, and forever will be, grateful to the many people who helped me survive when I was at my most vulnerable and almost entirely lost. To them I say, thank you. Many times over, thank you.

After so many years of trial and uncertainty, I feel relieved and grateful for the decision of Italy’s highest court to find me innocent of Meredith Kercher’s murder. And I am equally grateful that Raffaele Sollecito can now also move past his own wrongful conviction. I am acutely aware, however, that this story does not have a happy ending. Unlike a wrongful conviction, which can be overturned, nothing will ever bring Meredith Kercher back to her family and loved ones.

Whatever the future holds for me, I know that I must give back. I survived because my dear family gave up their lives to be with me in Italy, because scores of friends donated their resources, because my lawyers worked tirelessly to bring attention to the evidence that exonerated me, because strangers — from world-renowned DNA experts to former FBI crime-scene investigators to everyday citizens — saw the injustice in my case and spoke out, and because kind residents of Seattle gave me jobs to help me financially while I tried to clear my name. I will do everything I can to pay forward all everyone has done for me.

I am all too aware of how lucky I am to have received such strong support. I am also aware that countless other wrongfully convicted persons do not have such support. I will work to give a voice to those individuals. I will do this because I know how a wrongful conviction can destroy one’s life and because we best honor crime victims by ensuring that the actual perpetrators are brought to justice.

To everyone who has spoken out on my behalf, from Seattle to Rome, thank you. I look forward to making you proud for having supported me and my family.


Amanda M. Knox

Wow, just wow. Brought a tear to my eye.

 

[carbonjam72]

From Amanda Knox in the Seattle Times

http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/amanda-knox-moving-forward-with-gratitude-and-a-purpose/

I am SO Proud to have been one of the nameless strangers that has contributed, in my own small way, to righting this injustice and bringing about this joyful day.

Analemma

+1

 

[Chris_Halkides]

taking the temperature versus trace evidence in a sexual assault

A reporter covering the Mark Lundy case wrote, "A forensic pathologist says the doctor who examined the bodies of Amber and Christine Lundy did the right thing by not testing the bodies at the scene. Dr Martin Sage, who has more than 30 years experience in forensic pathology, was asked to review the forensic pathology methods used in the investigation. Dr James Pang earlier told the court he decided not to test the bodies for their temperature or rigor mortis in fear of disturbing key evidence. Sage said that was a good move, as the murder was a "whodunnit". 'The priority was finding trace evidence samples, then extract the bodies from the scene.' Taking body temperature involved inserting a probe into the rectum, which could disturb trace evidence if the victim had been sexually assaulted, Sage said. 'There is always a whiff of anxiety with females that there could have been a sexual assault.'"

A similar prioritization occurred in this case IIUC. For once the forensic police and PM Mignini probably made the right call, at least if the information above is valid. MOO.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Wow, just wow. Brought a tear to my eye.

She's a class act, I tells ya.

 

[The Big Dog]

Guilty as charged! Although I familiar with criticism of the "prosecutor" by title if not by name.

My wife was watching the news last Friday, while awaiting the verdict, and I became interested in the possible extradition issues, which are of course moot now.

 

[acbytesla]

She's a class act, I tells ya.

I hope she follows through. That said, I don't think that she actually owes this to people. Yes she is lucky to escape the clutches of a justice system seemingly hell bent on doing the wrong thing. But that wasn't her fault and Amanda shouldn't be held to a higher standard then the rest of us.

 

[acbytesla]

Guilty as charged! Although I familiar with criticism of the "prosecutor" by title if not by name.

My wife was watching the news last Friday, while awaiting the verdict, and I became interested in the possible extradition issues, which are of course moot now.

It certainly does end that sticky issue. Both the US and Italy dodged a bullet.

 

[Antony]

By Amanda M. Knox
Special to The Times
...

I am all too aware of how lucky I am to have received such strong support. I am also aware that countless other wrongfully convicted persons do not have such support. I will work to give a voice to those individuals. I will do this because I know how a wrongful conviction can destroy one’s life and because we best honor crime victims by ensuring that the actual perpetrators are brought to justice.

...

Amanda M. Knox

Well said Amanda.