Continuation Part 13: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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Now Peter Gill doing his thing, simultaneous translation into Italian.

He's saying that burden of proof has been reversed here, which is unusual; normally it's for the prosecution to prove that there was no contamination.


I would argue that the burden for the prosecution is not exactly to prove there was no contamination per se, but that all reasonable steps were taken to minimise the possibility of contamination. If the prosecution cannot meet that burden, then yes, the courts should in effect declare the evidence concerned to be of suspect reliability/credibility at least, and totally inadmissible at most.

In this instance, it's manifestly obvious that not-a-real-doctor Stefanoni (and her gang of untrained monkeys on the crime scene team) broke pretty much every recognised rule of evidence identification, collection, storage, transportation and testing. And, much more significantly even than that, when addressing the Sollecito knife and the bra clasp - both of which involve low-template levels of DNA - the conditions in Stefanoni's lab were utterly inadequate and improper for that sort of work.

In other words, it's clear that there were wide open paths for contamination at multiple points in the forensic process. And worst of all, the hugely sensitive low template work was carried out in a lab that was totally unequipped for such work, by a lab technician (Stefanoni) who was ignorant of the required protocols, incompetent in her techniques, and suspect-led in her "identification".

And for that reason, any sane court should declare the knife and clasp evidence to be hugely unreliable at the very least, and probably wholly inadmissible.
 
I would argue that the burden for the prosecution is not exactly to prove there was no contamination per se, but that all reasonable steps were taken to minimise the possibility of contamination. If the prosecution cannot meet that burden, then yes, the courts should in effect declare the evidence concerned to be of suspect reliability/credibility at least, and totally inadmissible at most.

In this instance, it's manifestly obvious that not-a-real-doctor Stefanoni (and her gang of untrained monkeys on the crime scene team) broke pretty much every recognised rule of evidence identification, collection, storage, transportation and testing. And, much more significantly even than that, when addressing the Sollecito knife and the bra clasp - both of which involve low-template levels of DNA - the conditions in Stefanoni's lab were utterly inadequate and improper for that sort of work.

In other words, it's clear that there were wide open paths for contamination at multiple points in the forensic process. And worst of all, the hugely sensitive low template work was carried out in a lab that was totally unequipped for such work, by a lab technician (Stefanoni) who was ignorant of the required protocols, incompetent in her techniques, and suspect-led in her "identification".

And for that reason, any sane court should declare the knife and clasp evidence to be hugely unreliable at the very least, and probably wholly inadmissible.

I would argue the DNA was never actually 'submitted' in court, because the electronic files were withheld, rendering the samples and results inherently inconclusive.

Wonder if Stef saw the show? Wonder how she liked it?

And, I wonder how the Daily Mail and the British tabloids will cover this story, if at all? And what about Italian newspapers?

Finally a little sunshine.
 
I would argue the DNA was never actually 'submitted' in court, because the electronic files were withheld, rendering the samples and results inherently inconclusive.

Wonder if Stef saw the show? Wonder how she liked it?

And, I wonder how the Daily Mail and the British tabloids will cover this story, if at all? And what about Italian newspapers?

Finally a little sunshine.



Oh I doubt whether the UK media will cover this at all. For them, there are only two angles: 1) The theatre of court verdicts, and 2) pictures of Foxy Knoxy and whatever she might be up to, but only around the time of (1).

Be in no doubt that all the UK main print and broadcast media outlets are well aware of the March 25th event, and it's very likely that the BBC and Sky will both have reporters on the ground in Rome to go live with the verdicts.
 
I would argue that the burden for the prosecution is not exactly to prove there was no contamination per se, but that all reasonable steps were taken to minimise the possibility of contamination. If the prosecution cannot meet that burden, then yes, the courts should in effect declare the evidence concerned to be of suspect reliability/credibility at least, and totally inadmissible at most.

In this instance, it's manifestly obvious that not-a-real-doctor Stefanoni (and her gang of untrained monkeys on the crime scene team) broke pretty much every recognised rule of evidence identification, collection, storage, transportation and testing. And, much more significantly even than that, when addressing the Sollecito knife and the bra clasp - both of which involve low-template levels of DNA - the conditions in Stefanoni's lab were utterly inadequate and improper for that sort of work.

In other words, it's clear that there were wide open paths for contamination at multiple points in the forensic process. And worst of all, the hugely sensitive low template work was carried out in a lab that was totally unequipped for such work, by a lab technician (Stefanoni) who was ignorant of the required protocols, incompetent in her techniques, and suspect-led in her "identification".

And for that reason, any sane court should declare the knife and clasp evidence to be hugely unreliable at the very least, and probably wholly inadmissible.

{Highlighting added to quote.}

I would disagree somewhat with your statement (which I highlighted).

I believe that the prosecution must be able to show that their data allow a reasonable person to distinguish a probative DNA signal from non-probative DNA noise. For example, commonly DNA peaks above 50 RFU (or some other accepted minimum) are considered "real" and subject to further analysis, while those below 50 RFU are considered "noise" and excluded from analysis. If the lab employs proper negative and positive controls, and evaluates all samples and controls scrupulously while practicing generally-accepted international protocols for quality control, collection and handling of samples and controls, and evaluation of raw data, and includes recording, tracking, and minimizing contamination as part of its quality control, it will be able to justify that it can distinguish DNA signal from contamination DNA noise. And the prosecution will allow the defense full access to the data as required for proper discovery ("equality of arms"), to allow the defense to challenge the data in accordance with adversarial practice.

In other words, any contamination that is unavoidably present must be such that it can be readily distinguishable from the "real" probative signal. This can be a difficult or impossible problem when dealing with LCN DNA. This is especially true if a lab operates without adherence to internationally recognized protocols and/or the technicians or leaders are unethical or suspect-centered.
 
Oh I doubt whether the UK media will cover this at all. For them, there are only two angles: 1) The theatre of court verdicts, and 2) pictures of Foxy Knoxy and whatever she might be up to, but only around the time of (1).

Be in no doubt that all the UK main print and broadcast media outlets are well aware of the March 25th event, and it's very likely that the BBC and Sky will both have reporters on the ground in Rome to go live with the verdicts.

I think you're right. But if the verdicts are confirmed, it is very possible there will be much more "heavyweight" interest in the real issues of this case from a legal and scientific perspective, particularly in the light of the relatively recent knowledge of proof of contamination and the substantial suppression of forensic evidence.
 
the exact route of contamination is not always known

It is certainly an unreasonable burden for the defense to have to specify the route of contamination. In many of the cases I have looked into the route is not known. This is true of Ms. P., of Mr. N., of Farah Jama, of Gregory Turner, and of John Ruelas. The only case with which I am familiar where the route is known is Adam Scott, and that case is unhelpful to the prosecution's argument for other reasons. The case of Lukis Anderson falls into a gray zone. There is a plausible route for contamination, but it was not proved.
 
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Is statistical probabilities even a real science? I've heard it said that you can make any statistic say anything you want it to, if you know how to do it, even if it doesn't favor your arguement.
The problem with "real-life" statistical probabilities is that it's almost impossible to know all the variables involved.

I'll even admit my probability analysis is flawed, but I'm willing to be convinced that I'm wrong, but no one has come forward yet to disprove my probability analysis.

But, I'm patient, and maybe some day, someone might convince me that I'm wrong.

It'd be nice for the probably guilty crowd to think along the same lines, but most of them that come here are not even at probably but at 100% instead.

That to me proves confirmation bias,

Statistics is just mathematics. It isn't science. Using statistics with the rules of probability to make predictions or interpret data is also mathematics.

Science is a process that leads to verifiable theories about how things work, like gravity or evolution.

And no, you can't make a statistic say anything you want it to. You can, however, mislead people with data when they're not willing or prepared to look at it closely. The people interpreting polling data for the Romney campaign in 2012 managed to mislead themselves into believing he was going to win that election. They did that by telling themselves that the people being polled in the weeks before the election weren't representative of the people who would actually vote -- in other words, they had the right numbers but they didn't believe them.

That's not a problem with the math.
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I don't know Kwill, I always thought of mathematics as a science, otherwise how could you use it as a proof in other sciences, especially in something like Physics, but I could be wrong.

I do agree with most everything else you say, but I do have to add that what I meant with the hilited part was not the statistic itself, but the interpretation of the statistic that can be manipulated (if you know how) to mean anything you want it to. Statistical probabilities has always seemed like an interpretive science to me rather than an actual science. The stats are real, but it's the interpretation that make it more like an hypothesis or a theory rather than something proven, like gravity. Kinda like what you said above.

One thing I will change in the above is "anything you want it to," to "ALMOST anything you want it to,"

d

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The issue doesn't really matter in cases where the raw files were not requested, were produced, or it can be shown that either the data or the DNA results don't really matter.

I'm guessing that there are very few cases where access to EDFs was requested and so strongly resisted by the authorities, and the DNA results were so shaky and yet decisive. This may be a bellwhether case in Italy.

Note, though, that the RIS attached their underlying data to their report to Nencini without any fuss. Also, Novelli was readily given access to not only lab results from this case, but also from other cases, simply by asking, and contrast that to the way the authorities responded to the defendants requests.

I would imagine that the number of innocent people wrongly convicted in Italy on the basis of forensic evidence presented at trial by the prosecution where full disclosure was not made and who are currently in jail, is significantly greater than zero, though I agree that there will be numerous cases where the non-disclosure of data had no bearing on the result at trial. A problem would be that the value of the data to the defence may not be known until it is examined by an expert. But given Stefanoni's denial of contamination events in her lab and the courts' ready acceptance of her claims, I can only presume that problems are not limited to the present case.

All we appear to know is, if Stefanoni is being truthful, Polizia Scientifica has never disclosed data to defences in any case it has handled. I wonder how many cases that is? We do not know for certain however, how desperate the situation is elsewhere in Italy (although Stefanoni says the data is never disclosed anywhere) - in how many cases disclosure of data was made without request, with request or in how many cases it would or should have made a difference at trial. As you correctly point out, in this case we have one instance of testing from the carabinieri lab where the data was provided, in sharp contrast to Stefanoni's lab where the prosecution consultant was given exclusive access to evidence. So, is this more likely to be exclusively a Polizia Scientifica problem? Perhaps so.

In cases where the raw data was not disclosed, that could be enough, with other trial matters, to be regarded as a breach of a defendant's convention rights under Article 6(3)b taken together with the equality of arms principle. Of course, whatever cases there are, are out of time with regard to applications to the ECHR, (other than those with finalised convictions in the last six months), yet Convention law still applies and overrides ordinary law in Italy.

It might be difficult and ultimately expensive, but lawyers, even where requests had not been made at trial, could try raising in the Italian courts, among others, the old case, Jespers v Belgium, which is still offered by the European court in advisory documents as a basis for upholding rights of discovery, ("....imposes an obligation on prosecuting and investigating authorities to disclose any material in their possession, or to which they could gain access, which may assist the accused in exonerating himself or in obtaining a reduction in sentence.") perhaps as part of an appeal for a Review of Trial or perhaps they might even attempt to use the modified art 630 to force a re-trial instead.

If the Knox/Sollecito murder convictions go to the ECHR and it rules specifically on DNA discovery, that would create a better gateway - as you say, a bellwether case.

Perhaps in future, the ECHR might, if alerted to the problem in Italy with discovery, adopt a pilot judgement procedure.

"....developed as a technique of identifying the structural problems underlying repetitive cases against many countries and imposing an obligation on States to address those problems. Where the Court receives several applications that share a root cause, it can select one or more for priority treatment under the pilot procedure. In a pilot judgment, the Court’s task is not only to decide whether a violation of the European Convention on Human Rights occurred in the specific case but also to identify the systemic problem and to give the Government clear indications of the type of remedial measures needed to resolve it."

Of course, this would require defence lawyers in relevant cases to understand the rights of their clients and to follow through with applications to the ECHR.

It seems to me, however, as a minimum, that a proactive review of at least a healthy random sample of Polizia Scientifica cases, should take place. I wonder if the Justice Ministry or similar has the power to order that?
 
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I don't know Kwill, I always thought of mathematics as a science, otherwise how could you use it as a proof in other sciences, especially in something like Physics, but I could be wrong.
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In math it can be proven that 2 + 2 = 4. But in the real world where science applies, 2 + 2 = 5 for sufficiently large values of 2.
 
Electropherograms from 165B

Can someone explain the meaning of this from Mr Sollecito's latest appeal (summary)?

(Eight Reason)

"The difference between the electropherogram originally derived by Stefanoni in 2008 and the one she finally gave to the court appointed experts on May 2011 lies in as much as 19 peaks suppressed from the autosomic profile and 14 suppressed from the Y-aplotype profile."

The defence has seen two different epgs for the clasp?

Or have I misunderstood?

http://www.amandaknoxcase.com/wp-co.../Summary-Sollecito-New-Reasons-of-Appeal.docx
 
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I'll have to find the reference, but the EPG submitted in electronic format for Vecchioti et al was a different one from the one originally submitted in paper format to the court. Presumably the different runs 165 A and B. But this is from memory.
 
I'll have to find the reference, but the EPG submitted in electronic format for Vecchioti et al was a different one from the one originally submitted in paper format to the court. Presumably the different runs 165 A and B. But this is from memory.

Thanks.

This from the wiki:

"Reconstruction of plate 410 demonstrates that Rep 165b’s profile was run once, suppressed, and re-run in a separate plate at the very end of the batch. It is only this second run of 165b that has been produced by the prosecution and touted as an incriminating profile, with the first run remaining unacknowledged and indeed secreted by the prosecution."

http://www.amandaknoxcase.com/bra-clasp-contamination/

It's not the above is it?
 
{Highlighting added to quote.}

I would disagree somewhat with your statement (which I highlighted).

I believe that the prosecution must be able to show that their data allow a reasonable person to distinguish a probative DNA signal from non-probative DNA noise. For example, commonly DNA peaks above 50 RFU (or some other accepted minimum) are considered "real" and subject to further analysis, while those below 50 RFU are considered "noise" and excluded from analysis. If the lab employs proper negative and positive controls, and evaluates all samples and controls scrupulously while practicing generally-accepted international protocols for quality control, collection and handling of samples and controls, and evaluation of raw data, and includes recording, tracking, and minimizing contamination as part of its quality control, it will be able to justify that it can distinguish DNA signal from contamination DNA noise. And the prosecution will allow the defense full access to the data as required for proper discovery ("equality of arms"), to allow the defense to challenge the data in accordance with adversarial practice.

In other words, any contamination that is unavoidably present must be such that it can be readily distinguishable from the "real" probative signal. This can be a difficult or impossible problem when dealing with LCN DNA. This is especially true if a lab operates without adherence to internationally recognized protocols and/or the technicians or leaders are unethical or suspect-centered.


I agree with you - but the issue you raise is more to do with methods of interpretation than with the actual issue of contamination routes.

With the bra clasp, for example, it might be possible to conclude that Sollecito's DNA was correctly interpreted as being present when the swab was tested. But the alleged presence (or otherwise) of certain DNA is a different issue to the issue of how that DNA might have come to be present on the tested sample.

To illustrate - imagine if the bra clasp had been properly identified and collected in a sterile manner the day after the murder, had been stored and transported in a proper fashion, and had been tested under all the required protocols for low template DNA work. And imagine if exactly the same set of electropherograms (i.e. the same as the ones Stefanoni actually did generate from 168B) had been output. One might have a debate over whether the electropherograms (and the way they were generated from the EDFs) were interpreted in a valid way. But if one concluded that it was indeed reasonable to interpret Sollecito's DNA on that sample, then it would be very difficult (to the point of near-impossibility) to conclude anything other than that Sollecito had had direct contact with that bra clasp.
 
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ah, the rounding up/down affect. Gotcha, and I agree,

d

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Yep. 2.3 to 0 decimal places is 2.

2.3 + 2.3 is 4.6, which to 0 dp is 5.

Therefore, if one were working throughout to 0 dp, but doing the actual calculations using the absolute numbers, it would appear that 2+2=5
 
I agree with you - but the issue you raise is more to do with methods of interpretation than with the actual issue of contamination routes.

With the bra clasp, for example, it might be possible to conclude that Sollecito's DNA was correctly interpreted as being present when the swab was tested. But the alleged presence (or otherwise) of certain DNA is a different issue to the issue of how that DNA might have come to be present on the tested sample.

To illustrate - imagine if the bra clasp had been properly identified and collected in a sterile manner the day after the murder, had been stored and transported in a proper fashion, and had been tested under all the required protocols for low template DNA work. And imagine if exactly the same set of electropherograms (i.e. the same as the ones Stefanoni actually did generate from 168B) had been output. One might have a debate over whether the electropherograms (and the way they were generated from the EDFs) were interpreted in a valid way. But if one concluded that it was indeed reasonable to interpret Sollecito's DNA on that sample, then it would be very difficult (to the point of near-impossibility) to conclude anything other than that Sollecito had had direct contact with that bra clasp.

In the hypothetical example you create above, how do you account for DNA of 3 - 4 other males in addition to Sollecito? If the DNA is there, an honest observer would have to determine that one of two possible occurrences likely occurred: 1) multiple (4 - 5) males touched the bra clasp hook but not the bra clasp fabric itself, an interpretation that is contradicted by the absence of footprints, handprints, and other missing signs (evidence) in the crime bedroom, or 2) that the victim had DNA of multiple males on her fingers as she hooked or adjusted her bra clasp.

If some of the DNA on the hook is compatible with others males such as the postal police and Filomena's boyfriend who tried to break down the door (a movement which includes trying to turn the door's outer knob), one can assume that the DNA of all four males including Sollecito was transmitted precisely in Stefanoni's dirty glove.

I'd like to know who are the other males whose DNA is on the bra clasp hook. Batistelli? Filomena's boyfriend? A male relative of Stefanoni if she has one (husband/boyfriend/son ?), a male lab colleague? A male relative of a female lab colleague or policewoman who had touched a surface that Stefanoni touched with her glove hand? Could Mignini be one if the contributors whose DNA Stefanoni picked up on her glove?

ETA: Stefanoni should be in a position to compare the DNA of all males on the bra clasp with the DNA of 1) the victim's downstairs boyfriend, 2) Guede, 3) her male lab assistants, 4) et al. Why has she not disclosed this? Did she not try? Did she try and find the data an inconclusive match? Did she try, find a conclusive match, and conceal it? Did she try, find a conclusive match to another male but prefer to interpret/assign peaks to her target, Sollecito, rather than to the other male?
 
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Thanks.

This from the wiki:

"Reconstruction of plate 410 demonstrates that Rep 165b’s profile was run once, suppressed, and re-run in a separate plate at the very end of the batch. It is only this second run of 165b that has been produced by the prosecution and touted as an incriminating profile, with the first run remaining unacknowledged and indeed secreted by the prosecution."

http://www.amandaknoxcase.com/bra-clasp-contamination/

It's not the above is it?

My mistake. I've just read the relevant section of C and V. There's an epg for 25/09/09 and one for 10/06/2008 (British date format). With the latter attached to Stefanoni's original report. The peaks present RFU levels differently. Ok. Sorry Planigale et al.
 
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Just regarding the 9.30-10pm TOD in the appeal. They had to stick with what was said in the process which isn't necessarily the real truth.

At the trial the rape was first then murder so she couldn't have been raped and killed by 9.10pm if she arrived home at 9.03pm vs dead by 9.10pm then sexually assaulted for 15-30mins...who knows.

Also they couldn't introduce Guede knowing about the parked car at 7.50pm in the CCTV because that wasn't part of the trial either.
 
In the hypothetical example you create above, how do you account for DNA of 3 - 4 other males in addition to Sollecito? If the DNA is there, an honest observer would have to determine that one of two possible occurrences likely occurred: 1) multiple (4 - 5) males touched the bra clasp hook but not the bra clasp fabric itself, an interpretation that is contradicted by the absence of footprints, handprints, and other missing signs (evidence) in the crime bedroom, or 2) that the victim had DNA of multiple males on her fingers as she hooked or adjusted her bra clasp.

If some of the DNA on the hook is compatible with others males such as the postal police and Filomena's boyfriend who tried to break down the door (a movement which includes trying to turn the door's outer knob), one can assume that the DNA of all four males including Sollecito was transmitted precisely in Stefanoni's dirty glove.

I'd like to know who are the other males whose DNA is on the bra clasp hook. Batistelli? Filomena's boyfriend? A male relative of Stefanoni if she has one (husband/boyfriend/son ?), a male lab colleague? A male relative of a female lab colleague or policewoman who had touched a surface that Stefanoni touched with her glove hand? Could Mignini be one if the contributors whose DNA Stefanoni picked up on her glove?

ETA: Stefanoni should be in a position to compare the DNA of all males on the bra clasp with the DNA of 1) the victim's downstairs boyfriend, 2) Guede, 3) her male lab assistants, 4) et al. Why has she not disclosed this? Did she not try? Did she try and find the data an inconclusive match? Did she try, find a conclusive match, and conceal it? Did she try, find a conclusive match to another male but prefer to interpret/assign peaks to her target, Sollecito, rather than to the other male?



I account for those other male profiles by contamination. And it's very useful to the defence, because as well as showing that there were multiple possible routes for contamination (owing to the inept work of Stefanoni et al, including the abject failure to observe mandatory protocols), there is actual hard evidence that contamination did indeed occur, in the form of these extra profiles.


My point earlier was that I think it's necessary to separate the two issues of a) interpretation of test results, and b) whether there were reasonable routed for contamination. In the case of the bra clasp, there's actually a separate argument to be made as to whether Sollecito's profile truly is present on the sample tested. But that's a different argument from whether or not contamination could reasonably have occurred. In the case of the bra clasp, the question of whether Sollecito's profile truly is on the sample becomes largely irrelevant once one understands that contamination of this article clearly occurred - and since contamination so clearly occurred, one cannot reason that anyone whose profile was found on that item (whether Sollecito or any of the other unidentified males) was involved in the murder.
 
I think you're right. But if the verdicts are confirmed, it is very possible there will be much more "heavyweight" interest in the real issues of this case from a legal and scientific perspective, particularly in the light of the relatively recent knowledge of proof of contamination and the substantial suppression of forensic evidence.

How do you envisage “proof of contamination” being presented in any judicial context?

The ECHR deals with human rights violations. As far as I know, there is not a legal mechanism in the Italy\US extradition process to re-examine evidence. Indeed, the scheduled Court of Cassation hearing does not review evidence.
 
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