Global warming discussion III

[Reality Check]

Am I wrong when I assumes that this is already part of the IPCC report, or will be when it is confirmed we are entering a Maunder Minimum?

The IPCC report includes all of the available climate science about climate change so the answers are obviously yes and even without a Maunder Minimum the IPPC report includes the effects of the Sun, hgus.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Thanks for the answer! Am I wrong when I assumes that this is already part of the IPCC report, or will be when it is confirmed we are entering a Maunder Minimum?

It's been included in every IPCC report to date:

The RF due to changes in solar irradiance is estimated as 0.05 [0.00 to 0.10] W m −2 (see Figure SPM.5). Satellite observations of total solar irradiance changes from 1978 to 2011 indicate that the last solar minimum was lower than the previous two. This results in an RF of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m –2 between the most recent minimum in 2008 and the 1986 minimum. {8.4}

Figure SPM.5 page 12
8.4 page 32

There's no Maunder minimum in the Contemporary Era nor there's Maunder minimum to come. From January 1st 2011 to date there have been just three days without sunspots. And you may look in a post above a concoction by Haig that tries to match the current cycle to the beginning of the Dalton minimum -without even including it- by overlapping series based on a different definition of the sunspot number [You may gather more basic information and data from here and here]. In fact, by using the awful technique of overlapping, eyeballing and "rule-of-thumbing" you may find solar cycles 22, 23 and 24 match cycles 9, 10 and 11 much better, what falsely implies that cycle 25 would be similar to 12, that is, the second most intense in a century.

Don't let yourself be confused by propaganda driven by the Goebbelsian technique of "repeat and repeat and repeat...", though it's fair to say that most bull****ers in this field don't have the pure purpose of lying but they are epistemological hedonists, that is, they look at everything and select whatever they like as it matches what they expect. It's very easy to follow that path when a person lacks education and methodology.

 

[hgus]

Don't let yourself be confused by propaganda driven by the Goebbelsian technique of "repeat and repeat and repeat...", though it's fair to say that most bull****ers in this field don't have the pure purpose of lying but they are epistemological hedonists, that is, they look at everything and select whatever they like as it matches what they expect. It's very easy to follow that path when a person lacks education and methodology.

I did not I can assure you. But I wanted to understand why it is not true, not just believe so.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I did not I can assure you. But I wanted to understand why it is not true, not just believe so.

Good for you. I become a little alarmed as your inquire made me think you considered a Maunder-like minimum a possibility.

Science in general and the IPCC don't work that way. For instance, the ONI value for the quarters SON, OND and NDJ were 0.5 or above, and all the weekly values for February that are going to make up the DJF value point in the same way. Five of those quarterly values in a row define an El Niño event (though a mild one as we can see today), yet today's report says there's currently a 60% probability for such event to develop.

Imagine it in case of a Maunder-like minimum. Some 25 years or so are require to declare it real, and we're not even in day one nor it's likely we will be in day one for years to come.

The power of AGW denialism to misinform the people is not to be underestimated.

 

[CapelDodger]

@Haig

I find it interesting that this story has been essentially buried by the MSM in the U.S. at least. Does this indicate anything about U.N. influence on the media here or is it just a left wing thing?

Have the UN got to FoxNews as well now, or are they no longer mainstream media? Or - heaven forfend - have they moved to the left-wing side? Of course they currently have their work cut out trying to defend Bill O'Reilly. The media do love a media-story.

For the US this is foreign news, and a very small story as well - "Indian man accused of sexual harrassment" is dog-bites-man in any media. If it turns out Pachauri's phone was hacked in an effort to discredit him it might become a bigger story. Not big enough for FoxNews, I'd expect; the Murdoch media are a bit shy of hacking stories.

Of course for you this is a big story - discredit Pachauri and you discredit the IPCC and the whole AGW fabrication, thereby proving your Sun-theory - and in your self-absorbed way you assume it should be big for everybody. It isn't.

Soon's deliverables and alleged corruption of science for political ends - now that's a story. And for the US media it's not even foreign. I wonder how FoxNews is approaching it?

 

[CapelDodger]

@aleCcowaN

Imagine it in case of a Maunder-like minimum. Some 25 years or so are require to declare it real, and we're not even in day one nor it's likely we will be in day one for years to come.

Good point. And no length of time will suffice for true believers to accept that it's not coming.

 

[Puppycow]

Layman's question here: Can any particular weather event be attributed directly to climate change, for example a drought? I previously was told no, and we all laughed when Inhofe produced a snowball on the Senate floor as evidence that climate change is a hoax. But the converse is also true, right? You can't point to the temperature on a hot summer day and say, "See! I told you so!" But what about a drought? Would a severe drought somewhere be evidence or not?

 

[macdoc]

Your question is perhaps too vague.
AGW influences weather events......in most cases making them more severe but that's not a given.

It's hard to say a "cause" of a weather event at all.
You can say the the conditions were such that a tornado developed.

For instance there were two severe tropical cyclones that hit Australia last week.

Conditions were such that they developed....one accelerated to a cat 5 in 48 hours far south of areas that give rise to that level of storm...

DId AGW cause it ??? no...conditions were there for a tropical depression.
Did AGW influence it??? big time - the SST was much higher than historical levels allowing the storm to accelerate to a major cyclone.

Drought is very tricky....California has a history of droughts. Is the persistent blocking of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge the "cause".....not really....is it making the drought longer and more intense....almost certainly.

AGW influences a weather event to a greater or lesser degree.

The second tropical cyclone formed in an area one would expect cyclones to hit and so AGW may have had little influence...but the ocean was hotter than historical averages.....so maybe a Cat 2 became a Cat 4 instead.

Language is perhaps the more difficult barrier. "Attribution" is a more frequent term these days and climate scientists are being bolder in attributing severe weather to AGW but are correctly cautious in the using the term "causing"

The only event I can think of that might fit "cause" was the first ever recorded hurricane in the Southern Atlantic.....a region not previously subject to hurricane development.

The other one that might fit "cause" is the increased snowfall in the Eastern Antarctic leading to glaciers growing. There is a clear path of evidence from warmer oceans, more moisture in the atmosphere and that increased snowfall in what is normally a cold desert region.

 

[Haig]

Of course for you this is a big story - discredit Pachauri and you discredit the IPCC and the whole AGW fabrication, thereby proving your Sun-theory - and in your self-absorbed way you assume it should be big for everybody. It isn't.

Sure, it's done

Soon's deliverables and alleged corruption of science for political ends - now that's a story. And for the US media it's not even foreign. I wonder how FoxNews is approaching it?

Statement by Dr. Willie Soon


The contrast on how the Pachauri (a AGW believer) and Soon ( a AGW skeptic ) stories have been treated by the MSM is so blatantly biased as to be a huge pointer to the corrupt tactics employed, all along, by the warmist / alarmist side, it wreaks of desperation.

 

[Haig]

@aleCcowaN

Good point. And no length of time will suffice for true believers to accept that it's not coming.

More projection ?

It's never too late for Mann to learn something new to him, about climate

Mikey Discovers Ocean Cycles!

Climate “scientist”, Michael Mann, has discovered that the 17 year pause in global warming is due to “internal variability”, particularly ocean cycles. In a paper written with a Byron Somebody, and someone called Sonya, he finds:

That internal variability is found in the natural cycles of temperature change that occur over years or even decades in the oceans, like El Niño and La Niña. There are others, like the “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” and the “Pacific decadal oscillation”…

There is an oceanic tug-of-war between the two systems. Sometimes the ocean cycles worked together to suck heat or burp it skyward—sometimes their push-pull led to a draw.

Welcome to the party, Mikey! Some of us have been explaining about this for years.

Mann’s meme generator, from ‘false hockey sticks’ to ‘false pauses’

this recent press release deserves some exposure for the sheer audacity of the claims made by Mann in it. I wonder if Mann is even cognizant of just how AWOL the climate models were at predicting what he claims?

 

[Haig]

How can our variable star drive weather, climate and other natural events here on earth ? Mmmm it's a puzzle, isn't it !

Spectacular Solar Flares - March 2, 2015

The Coming Solar Cycle(s)

Chilly Temps in Maunder Minimum: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7122...

The Recent Solar Maximum: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.4720v1.pdf

Chilly 17th Century: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_06/...

Choudhuri 2013: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3408.pdf

Sunspot Number: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml...

Sun Weakening Quickly: http://www.newscientist.com/article...owest-low-in-four-centuries.html#.VPWEUfmsV8F...

 

[a_unique_person]

You still don't seem to understand the concept of an energy balance.

 

[macdoc]

amongst other mysteries like magnitude that Haig is confounded by

 

[Haig]

You still don't seem to understand the concept of an energy balance.

The Sun's or the Earth's ?

It's not like the warmist / alarmist crowd have got much right, so far !

Natural forcing, the Pause has easily swamped the insignificant additional warming of the tiny (by comparison to nature) AGW.

Your focus is on our Co2 as a main factor when Water vapor is such a massive GHG that is way out of our control hardly gets mentioned

 

[Haig]

amongst other mysteries like magnitude that Haig is confounded by

Et tu, Brute

 

[aleCcowaN]

Sure, it's done



Statement by Dr. Willie Soon


The contrast on how the Pachauri (a AGW believer) and Soon ( a AGW skeptic ) stories have been treated by the MSM is so blatantly biased as to be a huge pointer to the corrupt tactics employed, all along, by the warmist / alarmist side, it wreaks of desperation.

More projection ?

It's never too late for Mann to learn something new to him, about climate

Mikey Discovers Ocean Cycles!



Mann’s meme generator, from ‘false hockey sticks’ to ‘false pauses’

How can our variable star drive weather, climate and other natural events here on earth ? Mmmm it's a puzzle, isn't it !

Spectacular Solar Flares - March 2, 2015

The Coming Solar Cycle(s)

Chilly Temps in Maunder Minimum: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7122...

The Recent Solar Maximum: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.4720v1.pdf

Chilly 17th Century: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_06/...

Choudhuri 2013: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3408.pdf

Sunspot Number: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml...

Sun Weakening Quickly: http://www.newscientist.com/article...owest-low-in-four-centuries.html#.VPWEUfmsV8F...

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_382364b8e6e69af1d0.jpg[/qimg][qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3823654ba3eafdafb1.jpg[/qimg][qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/3823654d6af0489ae0.png[/qimg]

The Sun's or the Earth's ?

It's not like the warmist / alarmist crowd have got much right, so far !

Natural forcing, the Pause has easily swamped the insignificant additional warming of the tiny (by comparison to nature) AGW.

Your focus is on our Co2 as a main factor when Water vapor is such a massive GHG that is way out of our control hardly gets mentioned

Et tu, Brute

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3823654b974f781521.png[/qimg]

Haig, repeat after me: "Richard Feynmann was a physicist, Dale Carnegie wasn't a physicist"

 

[macdoc]

Your focus is on our Co2 as a main factor when Water vapor is such a massive GHG that is way out of our control hardly gets mentioned

you don't understand persistence of GHG either do you....

a) how long does increased water vapour persist?
b) how long does increased CO2 persist?

If you don't even understand the basics ( increased water vapor is a feedback and collapses when the forcing is removed ).
Co2 is a forcing as it stands now with us mining fossil fuels.
••

what's heating the oceans Haig ?? fairy farts ??

funny sort of "pause".... in GLOBAL <<<<< got it global warming.

 

[Haig]

Haig, repeat after me: "Richard Feynmann was a physicist, Dale Carnegie wasn't a physicist"

Macdoc was right I'm confounded by you ... care to explain what your point is ?

Didn't you state a page or so back, something to the effect "it's best to ignore my posts"

It's the Sun NOT us ! 3 Big Flares, Earthquake Watch | S0 News March 3, 2015

 

[Haig]

what's heating the oceans Haig ?? fairy farts ??

funny sort of "pause".... in GLOBAL <<<<< got it global warming.

That would be our variable star

Is that the same Pause as Mann talks about

Mann’s meme generator, from ‘false hockey sticks’ to ‘false pauses’

From Penn State:

Interaction of Atlantic and Pacific oscillations caused ‘false pause’ in warming

The recent slowdown in climate warming is due, at least in part, to natural oscillations in the climate, according to a team of climate scientists, who add that these oscillations represent variability internal to the climate system. They do not signal any slowdown in human-caused global warming.

On Steinman et al. (2015) – Michael Mann and Company Redefine Multidecadal Variability And Wind Up Illustrating Climate Model Failings

In other words, that illustration presents model failings.

If we were to invert those curves, by subtracting reality (data) from computer-aided speculation (models), the resulting differences would show how greatly the models have overestimated the warming of the North Pacific and Northern Hemisphere in recent years.

What were they thinking? We’d let that go by without calling it to everyone’s attention?

Thank you, Michael Mann and Steinman et al (2015). You’ve made my day.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Layman's question here: Can any particular weather event be attributed directly to climate change, for example a drought? I previously was told no, and we all laughed when Inhofe produced a snowball on the Senate floor as evidence that climate change is a hoax. But the converse is also true, right? You can't point to the temperature on a hot summer day and say, "See! I told you so!" But what about a drought? Would a severe drought somewhere be evidence or not?

And laymen know the answer when they don't play the absent-minded game:

When I was 16, I went out by night any time after midnight -as everybody did- as they were just 140 homicides per year in the city, either crimes of passion or in marginal slums no-one but their inhabitants knew. Now, there are 1600 homicides a year, everywhere, half of them to rob you. I no longer go out by night without thinking it thrice (the city that never sleeps has died). We no longer leave windows open, not even in a second floor, unless there's a newly installed grille in each of them.

A few people were murdered during the last 24 hours. Is every of those murders and their particular circumstances to be attributed to the relentless crime wave that have been developing during the last few decades?